Ubi DRM: Their Side of the Story

[SurfD]

And it'd work if console gaming didn't exist.

Considering the number of current and next gen consoles with built in internet capability, I dont expect your console to protect you from this kind of shit if the current batch manages to stick to the wall.

[UnSub]

If statistics are to be believed, then PC gaming is indeed dying, and console gaming seems to be on the rise. One statistics claims that MW2 was downloaded 4+ million times on the PC, and sold 200-300k units, while the console version sold 5+ million, and was pirated 900k times or so. What the statistics isn't taking into account is, while MW2 was "the most popular game of 2009" was also one of 2009's most bitched at games due to a lot of features it had which smacked of consoleitis.

It's chicken and the egg thinking though. MW2 is focused on consoles because that is historically where they know they are going to get the best sales from. Plus you've just handwaved away an estimated 93% piracy rate on the PC platform as, "It was because it wasn't optimised for the PC that everyone pirated it."

Here's the issue: everyone recognises that piracy is a problem, but hate pretty much every option that comes up to deal with it. Steam, B.net and some other options do exist as a possibility, but not every developer has the ability to set up such infrastructure (and potentially get whipped by pirates when they try, such as happened for Demigod's launch).

So, the solution for game developers becomes:

1) Develop on consoles, which has some higher initial costs but your end product is less vulnerable to piracy so end returns will be better.

2) Require online authentication of some kind - you can't play the game / play key parts of the game (e.g. online multiplayer) without the correct online signature. MMOs do this in exchange for subs / RMT, Ubisoft is going down this path.

3) Slap up-front protection on the game, with this option being one that has generally showing less effectiveness over time.

4) Make the user pay for extra portions of the game through DLC. That way even pirates might put a few bucks in (or may just hack / copy the DLC when it becomes available too).

5) As little as possible goes to the user for pirating and everything stays server-side, as is the case with browser games.

If there are other options, fill 'em in.

It's nice to go, "Piracy is a problem, but mumble mumble mumble developers need to stop it!" but that completely avoids the problem. DRM is a symptom of piracy, not a cause (and frankly, the "DRM made me pirate this game!" is retarded as an argument). Here's the question: how do you stop piracy being an issue on the PC? If the answer is, "You can't" then we'll continue to see exactly what we've been seeing.

And as for 'value': if a title is worth the value of $20, it's even more worthwhile free.

(Also, I'm not going to separate copy protection from DRM, since CP is just a subset of DRM.)

[angry.bob]

Would you just shrug it off and try again later, or would you get annoyed because the story was just getting interesting, and you now know absolutely NOTHING about when you might resume reading the book, if ever?

I'd laugh because I read books on actual books. Reading books on a screen is for dipshits.

[Sheepherder]

Blizzard was a small company once.

And now it's a big company, fancy that.

[Ratman_tf]

Even if that were true (it is NOT anywhere near that hard to grab a high quality rip of a popular movie off bittorrent) it's not a good comparison since you only need to go through the hassle of acquiring the movie once, whereas the unskippable DVD stuff happens every time you play it.  The original chart didn't include the process of tracking down the DVD in a store, opening the goddamn shrinkwrap, peeling off all the stickers...

I'm still trying to figure out how those stickers stop me from jamming a DVD box up my shirt. Know what? The Freddies where I buy my DVDs doesn't even put those electronic tattle tales on them. I could walk out the store with a movie if I really wanted to.

[Samwise]

(and frankly, the "DRM made me pirate this game!" is retarded as an argument)

I'm not sure how that sort of anecdotal statement is in itself an "argument" that you can refute.  If historically someone has always paid money for the games they play, but they decide that a new form of DRM lowers the value of the game to the point where they would rather pirate it, and they do so, would you say the DRM in that instance was a "cause" or an "effect" of them pirating the game?  (Hint: the DRM existed before they made the decision to pirate the game, and they don't have a time machine.)

At best you might argue that anecdotes like this are not indicative of broad trends.  Then again, if you see them come up again and again from different people, it seems foolish to dismiss them.

(As for myself, I plan on doing my part to support Ubisoft by not playing their games at all.   )

[Musashi]

And as for 'value': if a title is worth the value of $20, it's even more worthwhile free.

Brosef.  I like you.  I think your assessments are sometimes a little off though.  I looked up the torrent for Torchlight on pirate bay.  It has 16 leechers.  That's not a whole lot, man.  I know it's not a tipple A title, and wasn't largely advertised outside of nerd HQ.  But uh.  Just sayin. 

I think it may just be that our versions of what needs to happen in order to curb rampant piracy may be different.  That's all.  I think that game developers need to chin up to the bar that Blizzard and Valve have set, or I will have many lulz at their expense.  You think that isn't realistic, so it's okay for them to keep trying to trick people into buying things for 50$ that aren't worth 50$.

[Ratman_tf]

So maybe I'm ignorant, but what's to stop pirates from creating a hack to get around the online system that UBI proposes?

[Samwise]

So maybe I'm ignorant, but what's to stop pirates from creating a hack to get around the online system that UBI proposes?

Nothing.  But they have to do SOMETHING!!!111

[Rasix]

So, this effects one game I was going to get on a console anyhow and one game I might buy when it's super cheap, again on a console.  I'm not going to boycott a company out of principle.  If someone made a true Shadow Hearts 2 follow on (not the third game, I pretend it doesn't exist) I'd play it even if it required the sacrifice of a kitten as DRM.

Bottom line to me doesn't seem to be changing much.  Woo hoo.  Continue equivocating everyone.

[eldaec]

Piracy costs billions my ass.

That theory buys into the bullshit assumption that any significant proportion of the pirates would have bought the product if they hadn't pirated it.

I'm not suggesting that makes piracy ok, but billions my ass.


And ubi can do without my business. I'm not always online, and I don't feel the urge to explain this deviant behaviour to products that I own. I doubt ubi shareholders will be crying themselves to sleep over this, but there you go.

[tgr]

If statistics are to be believed, then PC gaming is indeed dying, and console gaming seems to be on the rise. One statistics claims that MW2 was downloaded 4+ million times on the PC, and sold 200-300k units, while the console version sold 5+ million, and was pirated 900k times or so. What the statistics isn't taking into account is, while MW2 was "the most popular game of 2009" was also one of 2009's most bitched at games due to a lot of features it had which smacked of consoleitis.

It's chicken and the egg thinking though. MW2 is focused on consoles because that is historically where they know they are going to get the best sales from. Plus you've just handwaved away an estimated 93% piracy rate on the PC platform as, "It was because it wasn't optimised for the PC that everyone pirated it."

You're misreading me. I specifically did not buy MW2 because it was more expensive than normal PC games, for less SP content (5 hours? come on), it was missing tons of features the COD product line has had for years (lean, modabillity, console, dedicated server, although a bit of testing by PC users showed that it was indeed in the game, it was just "hidden"), it was the first game I've seen that ended up actually having a replicating virus, etc etc etc. Out of the people I LAN with twice a year, 30 out of 50 have specifically said they will not be buying it due to all of these issues, and they do not show up in the statistics. Unless they went and pirated the game anyways, of course.

I've had games such as Spore which I've wanted to buy, but I avoided buying them due to the activations. Turns out that was a blessing in disguise, as it apparently was a pretty shit game. MW2, however, is the first game that's caused me to go from holding a developer in high regard (granted, MW1 was a tad short, but it was still excellent, and I'm still playing CoD1/2 when I fancy a return to the good old days), to swearing that I'm not going to buy another game of theirs because of how they designed their game.

And that was my point. I did not just handwave away an estimated 93% piracy rate, I said that it being one of the most bitched at games didn't help. The piracy rate is probably exaggerated, but it's still pretty damn significant, and it's a very good indication that PC gaming is dying. And not just due to piracy, although that's what's always being touted as the reason as it's something they can easily point to. It's much harder to point to numbers and say "this many didn't buy our games because they hate our guts" or "this many didn't buy our games because they think they look like shit games".

As far as I've figured out, most PC gamers are for the most part older gamers with sizeable wallets. I have hundreds of games lying about my apartment that I've bought over the last 10-15 years, and maybe 5 of them are from 2009. I should make a graph of how many games I bought over the years, I'm pretty sure it'll nosedive hard sometime in 2008/2009, and it hasn't been replaced en masse by console games. The reason behind this will vary from gamer to gamer, but for me it's been the fact that PC games are getting shit-tastic with the consoleitis AND the ever-constricting DRM.

(Also, I'm not going to separate copy protection from DRM, since CP is just a subset of DRM.)

I'd call that a mistake, as DRM isn't just a superset of CP, but I'm not going to argue the point. It'll probably be moot in 5 years time anyway, when every game is an "MMO". Oh joy.

[Azazel]

So maybe I'm ignorant, but what's to stop pirates from creating a hack to get around the online system that UBI proposes?

Correct. Nothing.
At that point, the pirated version of the product is superior to the legit one.
When this is a reality, as it is now becoming on many titles, I stop buying, and as I've said, if I really want to play it, I'll play the superior version.

[eldaec]

If statistics are to be believed, then PC gaming is indeed dying, and console gaming seems to be on the rise. One statistics claims that MW2 was downloaded 4+ million times on the PC, and sold 200-300k units, while the console version sold 5+ million, and was pirated 900k times or so. What the statistics isn't taking into account is, while MW2 was "the most popular game of 2009" was also one of 2009's most bitched at games due to a lot of features it had which smacked of consoleitis.

It's chicken and the egg thinking though. MW2 is focused on consoles because that is historically where they know they are going to get the best sales from. Plus you've just handwaved away an estimated 93% piracy rate on the PC platform as, "It was because it wasn't optimised for the PC that everyone pirated it."

How exactly do you imagine piracy stats for godawful console ports come to exist? That's right, they are pulled directly out of someone's ass.

You might as well go into the mmog forum and start posting 'Hey guys, I found this chart by some guy called Bruce...'.



Consoles games sell more units and will continue to sell more units because the boxes that run them are fucking cheap. And tbh, you get what you pay for.



TAG Heuer sell a shit load more watches than Rolex. Rolex watches get pirated far more often than TAG Heuer. Guess what, nobody is dying don't be a bunch of fucking drama queens.

Also there is little to no evidence that any DRM short of game-runs-on-servers has any impact on piracy, and little to no evidence that piracy replaces sales to any substantial degree.

[IainC]

TAG Heuer sell a shit load more watches than Rolex. Rolex watches get pirated far more often than TAG Heuer. Guess what, nobody is dying don't be a bunch of fucking drama queens.

Also there is little to no evidence that any DRM short of game-runs-on-servers has any impact on piracy, and little to no evidence that piracy replaces sales to any substantial degree.

I've been trying to stay out of this argument but that is a pretty terrible analogy. People buying knock-off Rolexes are not in any way a lost Rolex sale, because those want a real Rolex will buy one and won't even consider a fake. Someone buying a fake Rolex for $20 from some guy on the beach is not about to walk into a jewellers and drop a grand or so. On the other hand (and this ties into your second point), if people weren't able to pirate a game then are youreally saying that a decent percentage of the people who wanted to play it and would have pirated it normally wouldn't buy it instead?

[Megrim]

Um, didn't you just agree with what he is arguing? The guys that aren't buying a real Rolex aren't exactly a 'net loss' for Rolex?

Furthermore, while yes, hypothetically if pirating games were impossible then sales of mediocre games might be higher, then going on to claim that wanting to play equals a guaranteed purchase - is a bit of a stretch.

To use the much-maligned MW2: i wanted to play it, until i found out about issues x/y/z... so i have not bought it, nor have i pirated it (because frankly it isn't worth the bandwidth). More then that, i would probably go on to tell anyone who asked me "Is it worth buying? No, it's a very average game, think twice about it." This isn't a lost sale now, is it?

[IainC]

Um, didn't you just agree with what he is arguing? The guys that aren't buying a real Rolex aren't exactly a 'net loss' for Rolex?

No, I'm pointing out that the market for luxury watches and computer games are not at all analogous.

[UnSub]

Blizzard was a small company once.

And now it's a big company, fancy that.

As was EA.

Blizzard grew by working its franchises heavily, as did EA. Both have been successful in refining a formula that gamers buy. B.net was innovative, back when such things were seen as being too expensive to do, but I am interested to see what Blactivision does about piracy with their next releases. Maybe nothing. Maybe a lot.

Consoles games sell more units and will continue to sell more units because the boxes that run them are fucking cheap. And tbh, you get what you pay for.

PC games have a bigger PC install base to sell to and often have cheaper titles, yet still don't typically beat console sales. They generally don't even come close. Sure, there are system spec issues, but that also makes consoles easier for people to use and game on compared to PCs.

And yes, I can't say that every single pirated copy of a title is a lost sale, but it's pretty safe to say that some of those people who pirate a title would go out and pay for it if they couldn't get it from Pirate Bay. There's some evidence in titles that manage to avoid day 1 pirated copies see better sales than titles that don't (but it is hard to work out for sure, given that not every title is equal when it comes to sales). BioShock remained uncracked for 13 days iirc post-launch and had fantastic PC sales. Would it have had the same sales without DRM? Don't know.

Going back to the OP: I don't think Ubisoft's system is going to work for long. Someone will crack it. But the reality is that publishers / distributors have to go down these paths in an attempt to reduce their potential losses. The alternative is to 1) ignore it and hope you keep releasing PC games that make back their million dollar investments or 2) go find something less risky to do with that money.

... I'm not sure if I'm the gasoline or the firewood for this particular argument.

[Mosesandstick]

From a commerical viewpoint it shouldn't be hard, do you get more sales by having more DRM? Customers can and will tolerate a certain level of it. At some point you're going to start losing customers. Anecdotally it seems that we passed that point long ago. The sales numbers appear to be backing this up.

The thing I don't get is that video game piracy is just a modern form of a black market. Don't people learn from the lesson of the past? If the black market provides a far superior good don't be surprised when people shift to black markets or to alternative goods (consoles).

I'm unconvinced that there are any statistics that show launch-day DRM works. It's just not an easy relationship to prove. I don't think there's any evidence that conclusively shows DRM works in any form, AFAIK no one's bothered to collect sufficient data to indicate anything.

[tgr]

I'm pretty certain you can say that having launch-day DRM will sell a few copies, there are a lot of impatient people who need gratification NOW DAMNIT.

Speaking of stats:

VGChartz preliminary day one figures puts the sales to date (including the midnight launches) at over 7 million copies worldwide across Xbox 360, PS3 and PC. Around 55% of sales are on Xbox 360, 33% on PS3 and the remaining 12% on PC. In terms of regional breakdowns, over 4.2 million units were sold in the Americas (3.7 million USA), 1.2 million in the UK and 350,000 each in France and Germany.

Based on the day one figures and the Tuesday release, week one figures should come in at close to ten million units which smashes the 5.92 million week one record set by Grand Theft Auto 4 last year and positions Modern Warfare 2 as the most successful game launch of all time.

In fact, even on a single format (Xbox 360), week one sales are projected to come in at around 5.5 million units.

So 3.85 million buys MW2 for the 360 the first day it's available, and that number rises to 5.5 after the first week.

Interestingly, if these figures are correct, then the PC version sold 800-900 units on the first day alone, and that figure is much more in line with what I would expect, and probably peaks at over 1 million after the first week (although this is conjecture at this point).

And if you even get that figure up by 1% by preventing launch-day/week piracy, then it's still another 6 million dollars for the PC version alone. So it's not hard to see why they want to do it. It's just such a pity they have to go so far to try to maximize that that they're driving away players in the process.

[IainC]

There is a 'golden period' for major releases where there's a lot of added value from playing at the same time as everyone else even for single player games. If you're interested in playing ME2 for example, then playing at the same time as all of your friends and being able to join in the conversations about it is a benefit that you miss by not being able to play it from launch. I'd guess that if you have such a game and there is no day 1 piracy, then a lot of potential pirates will cave and buy it for that reason alone, this number increasing the longer that it takes for the crack to arrive.

[Mosesandstick]

Sure, but the flip-side is that in having DRM strong enough to not get cracked immediately, how many potential customers do you alienate? My feeling is that in the long-term you'd lose customers whilst gaining some short-term. I obviously have no stats to back this up but lots of anecdotes 

[tgr]

Literally the only way to ensure that is to prohibit the crackers from getting access to the executable prior to launch day, but that again means using some 3rd party equipment like steam or the like, which again means you can end up with being unable to install/run the game (HL2 launch, anyone?).

And you're still facing the potential problem of disloyal employees who get hold of the real executable ahead of launch day and send that file to the crackers, and you're back to square 1.

[Lantyssa]

1) Develop on consoles, which has some higher initial costs but your end product is less vulnerable to piracy so end returns will be better.

If the PC market is killed, then piracy of console games will become just as ubiquitous.  Yes, it's easier to pirate PC games, so that is where a majority focus.  When it's their only option though, the people who put the real effort into cracking these things will just find a new challenge in the consoles.

We've seen this in every market that has fought piracy.  Has anything besides iTunes (selling music cheaply and easily without headaches) worked at curbing it?

[Threash]

TAG Heuer sell a shit load more watches than Rolex. Rolex watches get pirated far more often than TAG Heuer. Guess what, nobody is dying don't be a bunch of fucking drama queens.

Also there is little to no evidence that any DRM short of game-runs-on-servers has any impact on piracy, and little to no evidence that piracy replaces sales to any substantial degree.

I've been trying to stay out of this argument but that is a pretty terrible analogy. People buying knock-off Rolexes are not in any way a lost Rolex sale, because those want a real Rolex will buy one and won't even consider a fake. Someone buying a fake Rolex for $20 from some guy on the beach is not about to walk into a jewellers and drop a grand or so. On the other hand (and this ties into your second point), if people weren't able to pirate a game then are youreally saying that a decent percentage of the people who wanted to play it and would have pirated it normally wouldn't buy it instead?

OF COURSE THEY WOULDN'T.  Pirates pirate every freaking thing that comes along, they do it because its there and its easy not because they really really wanna play that one specific game.  THIS is the best real representation of what a pirate is like.

[IainC]

OF COURSE THEY WOULDN'T.  Pirates pirate every freaking thing that comes along, they do it because its there and its easy not because they really really wanna play that one specific game.  THIS is the best real representation of what a pirate is like.

I disagree with that. Who are these video gamers who apparently do not care what they are playing and have no particular interest in specific titles?

[Threash]

OF COURSE THEY WOULDN'T.  Pirates pirate every freaking thing that comes along, they do it because its there and its easy not because they really really wanna play that one specific game.  THIS is the best real representation of what a pirate is like.

I disagree with that. Who are these video gamers who apparently do not care what they are playing and have no particular interest in specific titles?

Me back when i was a broke highschool and college student, every guy i knew who also downloaded games, everyone i talked too in the pirate circles.  There's no reason to be picky when you have access to every single game available.

Edit: to make my point clearer: pirates download EVERYTHING, there's absolutely no reason NOT to download everything.  That's where the idea that downloads are lost sales fall flat on its face.

[HaemishM]

Consoles games sell more units and will continue to sell more units because the boxes that run them are fucking cheap. And tbh, you get what you pay for.

You forgot something else - consoles just work. The concept of consoles is all about sticking a disk in the tray and playing the goddamn game. There's little to no futzing with installations, configurations, drivers and all that other bullshit. That has a number of knock-on effects: 1) any idiot can play games on a console, so your potential market is bigger; 2) since the console manufacturer has a rigid QA testing certification process in addition to your own, you can save money on QA or have more reliable QA (though obviously not perfect); and 3) development times can be shorter because you are dealing with a minuscule set of hardware configurations as opposed to the bazillion different hardware/software combinations that exist on the PC platform.

PC gaming isn't "dying" - it's returning to what it should be, a dedicated hobbyist market. That means it is a niche market and should adjust its business model accordingly - make niche products, investigate non-traditional delivery mechanisms (which means give up on brick & mortar stores completely for digital delivery) and become a part of the market community. Piracy isn't driving PC games to this point, the 3 effects of console games are. If piracy is destroying PC gaming sales, why does a group like Stardock do so well with a niche product like Sins of the Solar Empire that contains no DRM and is widely pirated? Why? Because the developer doesn't treat his customers like criminals. He had a respectful relationship with them by offering a good product that did what it's supposed to, with few bugs, offered through a convenient service for a fair price without any hassles.

The MMO model is something completely different, and Ubisoft's DRM offers nothing like an MMO in extra functionality for the inconvenience.

[IainC]

Me back when i was a broke highschool and college student, every guy i knew who also downloaded games, everyone i talked too in the pirate circles.  There's no reason to be picky when you have access to every single game available.

Edit: to make my point clearer: pirates download EVERYTHING, there's absolutely no reason NOT to download everything.  That's where the idea that downloads are lost sales fall flat on its face.

Right but you haven't addressed the point in my original post, if you couldn't pirate ME2 for example for a while after launch might some people who would otherwise pirate it actually buy it? I believe the answer to that is 'yes' which is where the argument that piracy doesn't affect sales falls flat on its face.

[Threash]

Me back when i was a broke highschool and college student, every guy i knew who also downloaded games, everyone i talked too in the pirate circles.  There's no reason to be picky when you have access to every single game available.

Edit: to make my point clearer: pirates download EVERYTHING, there's absolutely no reason NOT to download everything.  That's where the idea that downloads are lost sales fall flat on its face.

Right but you haven't addressed the point in my original post, if you couldn't pirate ME2 for example for a while after launch might some people who would otherwise pirate it actually buy it? I believe the answer to that is 'yes' which is where the argument that piracy doesn't affect sales falls flat on its face.

Some? sure, a small percentage would.  I don't recall anyone saying pirating has ZERO effect on sales, but people who can have anything they want are going have very different habits than those that have to pay through the nose for the same privilege. 

[eldaec]

THIS is the best real representation of what a pirate is like.

Lies. This is what being a pirate is like.

if people weren't able to pirate a game then are youreally saying that a decent percentage of the people who wanted to play it and would have pirated it normally wouldn't buy it instead?

No, I'm not saying a decent percentage wouldn't have bought it. I'm saying the vast majority of people who pirated it would not have bought it.

OF COURSE THEY WOULDN'T.  Pirates pirate every freaking thing that comes along, they do it because its there and its easy not because they really really wanna play that one specific game.  

Actually this is pretty much true for the vast majority of PC piracy events.


EDIT: Actually Haemish's post wins this thread. Though the 'just work' and 'cheap to develop, cheap to buy' elements are far more important than the QA thing.

[eldaec]

Also, when you were 12 years old, and used to tape shit off the radio, how much of that would you have gone out and bought with your imaginary money if you didn't own a tape deck?

[AutomaticZen]

PC gaming isn't "dying" - it's returning to what it should be, a dedicated hobbyist market. That means it is a niche market and should adjust its business model accordingly - make niche products, investigate non-traditional delivery mechanisms (which means give up on brick & mortar stores completely for digital delivery) and become a part of the market community. Piracy isn't driving PC games to this point, the 3 effects of console games are. If piracy is destroying PC gaming sales, why does a group like Stardock do so well with a niche product like Sins of the Solar Empire that contains no DRM and is widely pirated? Why? Because the developer doesn't treat his customers like criminals. He had a respectful relationship with them by offering a good product that did what it's supposed to, with few bugs, offered through a convenient service for a fair price without any hassles.

I will note that I purchased Sins of a Solar Empire, a game that remains unopened and untouched on my bookshelf to this day, solely because of Stardock's DRM policy concerning Galactic Civilizations II.  They got an extra random sale out of me because of the lack of DRM.

And I will confirm that back in my college pirate days (PS One games) I did pretty much download any and everything, regardless of if I was going to play it.  I found an old CD wallet from that time while cleaning out the garage and there were some interesting choices in there.  I doubt pirates have changed much.

Right but you haven't addressed the point in my original post, if you couldn't pirate ME2 for example for a while after launch might some people who would otherwise pirate it actually buy it? I believe the answer to that is 'yes' which is where the argument that piracy doesn't affect sales falls flat on its face.

Which then leaves the argument, is piracy effecting sales to such a grand degree that such draconian measures are needed?  That is the part that is difficult (or perhaps impossible) to quantify.

[Rasix]

Also, when you were 12 years old, and used to tape shit off the radio, how much of that would you have gone out and bought with your imaginary money if you didn't own a tape deck?

Cool analogy, bro.

[Mosesandstick]

It's a moot argument to say that piracy reduces sales. It obviously reduces sales in terms of the people who could've and would've bought it but pirated instead. But there are so many other factors that we can argue over it's actual effect as long as we want. What is pretty explicit though is that publishers are continuing to funnel PC games into different markets, and whilst they might win with some (WoW!), I don't see "having a good constant internet connection" as a good market.