Enough smack talking. Make your sales prediction here.

[slog]

I see a lot of people talking shit about how they think this game won't sell 300k copies or whatever.   Here is your chance to make an official prediction.  I'll edit the post as people reply

Box Sales in the first month: 500,000
Subs: 300,000


Azaroth: 1.5 million boxes 900,000 subs
Soln 600,000 boxes 500,000 subs
amiable 1.5 million boxes 900,000 subs
Morfiend 1.2 million (something) by the end of 3 months.
Khaldun 1 million boxes in 2 months, 700k subs
Comstar 1.2 million units first 2 months 800K subscribers in 2 months.
Draegon 900k boxes sold first week 1.2 million subs in 3 months
hawkbit 750k boxes first month, 1.2 million after 3 months. 600k sub retention after first month, 750k after third month
UnSub First month box sales: 800k First sub month: 500k Second sub month: 700k
Ratman: UnSub Sycophant
Falwell: 1.2 mill boxes in 60 days 680k subs in 60 days
Photek: Falwell Sycophant
Wasted: Emo Warrior
Slayerik: 750,000 boxes sold in a month. 500,000 subs
Nebu 800k boxes after 3 months.  450k subs after the first month
Miasma: Boxes: 900,000 first month and 1.3 million in the first three months. Subs:  800,000 as a peak in the first few months and then down to around 500,000 a year later
MrBloodWorth: 800k boxes after 3 months.  450k subs after the first month
trias_e: 800k boxes sold first month, 600k subs after first month over
Lantyssa: 900k boxes initially, 450k subs, 150k subs at 6 months

[Azaroth]

I say it triples that.

Everyone wants to play WoW, but everyone is sick of playing WoW.

As such, the perfect solution is Warhammer.

[Soln]

Box Sales in the first month: 600,000
Subs: 500,000

[amiable]

I say it triples that.

Everyone wants to play WoW, but everyone is sick of playing WoW.

As such, the perfect solution is Warhammer.

This.  If not better.

[Morfiend]

I say 1.2 mil by the end of 3 months.

[Khaldun]

1 million boxes sold in 2 months or so.
700k subscribers at or around Nov. 30th.

After that, unless the game is in very solid shape, expect a bleed out of subscribers back down to about 400k, maybe smaller.

[Comstar]

1.2 million units first 2 months.
800K subscribers in 2 months.

[Draegan]

900k boxes sold first week
1.2 million subs in 3 months.

[Hawkbit]

750k boxes first month, 1.2 million after 3 months.

600k sub retention after first month, 750k after third month. 

I'd love to see myself projected low. 

[UnSub]

(Does anyone know if Mythic is going to be staggering the release of box copies like they did for DAOC? Because if they 'only' ship 800k, then that's what they will be limited to)

First month box sales: 800k

First sub month: 500k

Second sub month: 700k

Sub figures when WotLK comes out: 300k 

Update: 12 months from launch: 500 k (unless a major new expansion has been launched by then, in which case 700k)

[Ratman_tf]

1 million boxes sold in 2 months or so.
700k subscribers at or around Nov. 30th.

After that, unless the game is in very solid shape, expect a bleed out of subscribers back down to about 400k, maybe smaller.

I like these numbers.

[Falwell]

What are the criteria exactly? 30 days? 60? 90?

I'll do mine for 60 days since that 30 day first billing cycle is such a critical time.

1.2 million boxes
680k subscribers

[photek]

I think I'm with Falwell here. Around 1,1-1,5 million boxes sold, 600-700k subscribers after 60 days.

[Wasted]

I predict no figures will be released that everyone will agree to.

I haven't played beta but I think it will sell similar boxes to Conan initially, I think that represents the pool out there of people willing to try at release a reasonably well marketed and hyped game with a perceived level of production quality.  I think they will retain more people than Conan did and not be hurt too dramatically by WotLK.

[Slayerik]

This game lacks the hype AoC had going for it at launch. The poor performance of AoC (after the tortage bait and switch) may leave people like myself a little weary on another non-Blizzard MMO. Due to those crazy Euros though, I'll give it:

750,000 boxes sold in a month.
500,000 subs

[Nebu]

800k boxes after 3 months.  450k subs after the first month. 

[Miasma]

I hate this type of thing, we're just pulling numbers out of the air, I might as well start buying lottery tickets if I think I have a hope of being right.

Boxes: 900,000 first month and 1.3 million in the first three months.
Subs:  800,000 as a peak in the first few months and then down to around 500,000 a year later.

One in three chance that the subscribers will briefly break one million.


By subscriber I mean someone who has had to actually pay the monthly fee.

[Mrbloodworth]

800k boxes after 3 months.  450k subs after the first month. 

Same.

800k boxes after 3 months.  450k subs after the first month. 

[trias_e]

Worldwide right?

800k boxes sold first month, 600k subs after first month over.

Gets up to 800k subs before WOTLK comes out, after which it loses about 25% of the population, many of which filter back at a later time.  Population fluctuates between 600k and 1 million for the first year.  I would wager a reasonable amount that the game at some point does crack 1 million subs...but not my life savings.  After that depends on Mythic's success with expansions.

[Lantyssa]

900k boxes initially
450k first month retention
150k six month retention (WoW expansion releasing as the shine is wearing off is going to hurt)

[cevik]

500k boxes first month, 750k boxes after 3.

First month retention 250k, 3 month 350k, 6 month 150k.

[schild]

I'm not going to give heavy numbers, but if Mark wants 500k, I think he'll be surprised. The market is ripe, they're beating wrath, box sales will be impressive and will be more than AoC, easy. As long as they ship that many on Day 1 at least.

[Cheddar]

500k box sales, 100k subs

[HaemishM]

Box sales: 500k
Subs: 250k

[Cyrrex]

Boxes after 3 months: 1.3 million
Subs after 3 months: 600k

This based on, of course, nothing whatsoever.

[Lakov_Sanite]

I'm not going to give heavy numbers, but if Mark wants 500k, I think he'll be surprised. The market is ripe, they're beating wrath, box sales will be impressive and will be more than AoC, easy. As long as they ship that many on Day 1 at least.

If you mean beating by pre-orders then of course. Who pre-orders an expansion? Besides everyone knows the wotlk boxes are going to be so plentiful on opening day in every store that sells games to make pre-ordering a pointless endeavor.

Someone in this or another thread hit the nail on the head, the MMORPG market is not what's grown vastly, it's the casual people using wow as another 'sims' type leisure activity and the vast majority of players don't really want/like mmorpg's.

However....1mil box sales in the us, 650k after 3 months but no higher than that

[Khaldun]

Key thing here is predicting up to release of Wrath of the Lich King. After that point, all bets are off, as things may change both based on whether Wrath keeps WoW players interested for more than a month or two AND whether Warhammer has run into serious technical or content-related snags.

[Scadente]

1.2m at launch (as long as they make that many boxes)
Half of that untill Wrath launches
Half of that post Wrath

I do not hope that it is a resounding success, I do hope it fails. Only to prove that the market might be ready for something different then *YAWN* high-fantasy-diku-shizzle.

[Ingmar]

I'm not going to give heavy numbers, but if Mark wants 500k, I think he'll be surprised. The market is ripe, they're beating wrath, box sales will be impressive and will be more than AoC, easy. As long as they ship that many on Day 1 at least.

If you mean beating by pre-orders then of course. Who pre-orders an expansion? Besides everyone knows the wotlk boxes are going to be so plentiful on opening day in every store that sells games to make pre-ordering a pointless endeavor.

Someone in this or another thread hit the nail on the head, the MMORPG market is not what's grown vastly, it's the casual people using wow as another 'sims' type leisure activity and the vast majority of players don't really want/like mmorpg's.

However....1mil box sales in the us, 650k after 3 months but no higher than that

Pretty sure that is beating as in, beating to market.

[Ratman_tf]

I do not hope that it is a resounding success, I do hope it fails. Only to prove that the market might be ready for something different then *YAWN* high-fantasy-diku-shizzle.

[Morgan Freeman]
"I wish I could say that the sisters left him alone after that. But prison is not a fairy tale."
[/Freeman]

If WAR is deemed a "failure" (probably by not having 20 zillion subscribers) people will just blame it on Blizzard cornering the market, not on their own choices of game design.

[rattran]

1st month 800k boxes, 600k subs after the free month is done.

[dr_dre]

1st month 1.5 million boxes
3rd month 2 mill subs
6 month 1.2 mill subs

[Simond]

Box sales: Somewhere around one and a half million, and steady sales after that.
Subs: Three-quarters of a million at launch, up to about a million or so by November, then back down to just over half a million or so.

[Numtini]

Sales: First month 1 million, 2nd month 200k
Subs: 30 day 800k renewal, 90 day 250k or fewer

Vector: The game will have every sign of huge success up to when WOTLK is released and will then be gutted in both new sales and subs.

[Cadaverine]

Box sales ~1 million
Subs, month 1: 600-700k
Subs, month 3: 350k, with it dropping to ~200k by month 6.

There will be a good sized dip when WotLK releases, but I think plenty of them will come back, the pvp crowd first, and the pve types about a month later, once they're done with the new content.