Mark Jacobs Interview Regarding AoC and Hellgate (Why They Tanked)

[Falwell]

I debated putting this in the current EA / Mythic thread, but I didn't wanna derail that one. Trip, Schild etc. will move this and call me a douchebag if necessary I'm sure..

http://multiplayerblog.mtv.com/2008/09/02/mythic-vp-on-hellgate-and-age-of-conan/

Mythic VP and lead “Warhammer Online” designer Mark Jacobs told me some of the things needed to make a successful MMO. But he also said if you’re looking to make an online game nowadays, the odds are against you.

“If you look at the numbers, MMOs have the highest failure rates of any entertainment product,” Jacobs said. Going all the way back 11 years to the release of “Ultima Online,” the first MMO to reach 100,000 subscribers, he said that there have only a been handful of successful MMOs compared to the number of them being developed.

I mentioned how the measure of success nowadays might be if your game still exists in a year. “It does seem that way,” he said, “and it is just tremendously sad when you look at the amount of money and effort that goes into MMOs.”

In our recent conversation about the state of online games, we also touched on why last year’s “Hellgate: London” went under, and what the troubled “Age of Conan” can do to prevent the same fate.


First, we discussed “Hellgate: London,” the online action-RPG was made by Jacobs’ long-time friend Bill Roper. Though Roper had experience as VP of Blizzard North working on the “Diablo” series, his company Flagship Studios recently closed its doors following the release of “Hellgate,” its first title, last October. So what went wrong?

“I know for a fact that sometimes just having talent is not enough,” Jacobs said after a long sigh. “You need leadership and you need patience. And what’s most important — something that so many developers forget — is you also need to deflate the ego a little bit. You really have to remember that as good as you were then — ‘Diablo’ was a great game — you’re not always going to be right… I think for ‘Hellgate,’ that was part of the problem.”

He also said that no matter how great you think your game is, developers must listen to the community. “It doesn’t mean you have to follow what they say, but you always have to listen,” he said. “The test of greatness is to know how to look at it and either incorporate it or learn from it. We might listen to the wrong advice, but we always listen. That’s how I think all developers have to be because nobody is that smart and nobody is right all the time.”

On the topic of the listening to the community, I wondered what Jacobs thought about Funcom’s May-released MMO “Age of Conan” and the trouble the company has had in terms of delivering promises to its fanbase. Blizzard president Mike Morhaime recently said that 40 percent of “WoW” players who left for “Conan” have since returned.

“If I was a ‘WoW’ subscriber, and I played another game hoping it would be great and it wasn’t, of course I would come back,” he said. “I’m not saying ‘Conan’ sucks but obviously the people who left it thought it sucked, otherwise they wouldn’t have left it. And the same thing may happen to us… ‘Conan’ had great sales initially, but then [Funcom] failed to follow up with continued great sales. If you’re not selling boxes anymore, if players aren’t talking about how good your game is, then obviously people are not happy with it.”

With Jacobs having played the game and having read fan postings on both the “Warhammer” and “Age of Conan” forums, he thought that Funcom should have delayed the game. “I think that the greatest mistake that they made was not listening and not learning from what had gone before,” Jacobs said, referring to the launch issues of Funcom’s “Anarchy Online” in 2001. “When they looked at ['Age of Conan'] when they were ready to launch, I can’t imagine how they didn’t see the issues that other people saw. According to their annual reports, they had plenty of money. They should’ve looked at it and said, ‘We need to delay this game.’ There are probably reasons I’m not aware of… but I think that’s their biggest sin.”

Jacobs said not all was lost for “Conan,” but with “Warhammer” and another “WoW” expansion on the way, they’ve now lost their head start. “If they’re willing to spend the time and the money to fix the things that — according to the players — are broken, and put in the things that players say they didn’t put in, they can turn it around,” he said. “But now they’re going to have to leapfrog over us and then leapfrog over Blizzard in order to bring back a ton of players — that’s going to be tough. They won’t be what they could’ve been.”

Though “Age of Conan” is competition, Jacobs told me he actually wanted the game to do well. “At some level I wanted ‘Conan’ to succeed because for the last few years people have been saying it’s all Blizzard and nobody else can do it,” he said. “‘Only Blizzard can get those kind of numbers,’ and so far they’ve been right. But now it’s our turn.”

He added, “If we don’t succeed with EA behind us, the ‘Warhammer’ IP behind us, with one of the most experienced teams in the industry, that’s not going to be good for the industry. We need to show the world that it’s not just Blizzard who can make a great game, and that the audience is absolutely willing to try new things and to play a game other than ‘WoW.’”

[Wershlak]

“But now they’re going to have to leapfrog over us and then leapfrog over Blizzard in order to bring back a ton of players — that’s going to be tough. They won’t be what they could’ve been.”

He's talking alot of smack lately. I guess he's confident WAR can back it up.

[Viin]

Just a gut feeling, but I don't think WAR will do any better than AoC.

[Lt.Dan]

Just a gut feeling, but I don't think WAR will do any better than AoC.

I agree.  Remember your first MMO.  Remember how fun it was OMG playing with other people on-line, killing monsters and getting treasure.  Remember the challenge?  Now think back to your second MMO - same stuff but you know what? That MMO gameplay is really quite boring.

[Hawkbit]

Just a gut feeling, but I don't think WAR will do any better than AoC.

I sure hope it does, so everyone can be stuck playing Blizzard's games for the next 20 years.  That will fucking rule. 

[sam, an eggplant]

I disagree. Assuming a technically proficient launch (got to have that caveat in there), I reckon WAR will drag slightly behind conan with ~500-650k initial box sales in the first month but hold momentum and continue to steadily grow subscriptions over time, the sign of a healthy game. It'll never scare WoW, but will manage to retain around 800k-1.2m sustained subscribers in the west with potentially much more if they properly leverage asia.

I dunno about you guys, but I was pretty deeply surprised by AoC's initial success, and I'm revising all my predictions upwards. It's safe to say that while WAR is in many ways less ambitious than AoC, it does work, it's polished for a MMO, and is just overall a better game.

[Nebu]

I disagree. Assuming a technically proficient launch (got to have that caveat in there), I reckon WAR will drag slightly behind conan with ~500-650k initial box sales in the first month but hold momentum and continue to steadily grow subscriptions over time, the sign of a healthy game. It'll never scare WoW, but will manage to retain around 800k-1.2m sustained subscribers in the west with potentially much more if they properly leverage asia.

I dunno about you guys, but I was pretty deeply surprised by AoC's initial success, and I'm revising all my predictions upwards. It's safe to say that while WAR is in many ways less ambitious than AoC, it does work, it's polished for a MMO, and is just overall a better game.

I'm still thinking this game is going to be around the 500k mark.  It's just not offering up anything all that novel to the market.  The best thing it has going for it right now is that, other than WoW, there's really nothing else MMO'ish worth playing. 

NOTE: I'm talking North American numbers.  Europe may buoy this title up a bit. 

[WindupAtheist]

WAR will be another flop that can't surpass peak EQ1 numbers, and the failure of the non-Blizzard subscription MMO industry will be complete.  They will all kneel before Zod and fuck off to make browser games and pretend that's "really the future".

[UnSub]

Mythic VP and lead “Warhammer Online” designer Mark Jacobs told me some of the things needed to make a successful MMO. But he also said if you’re looking to make an online game nowadays, the odds are against you.

So don't try, biatches! 

“If you look at the numbers, MMOs have the highest failure rates of any entertainment product,” Jacobs said. Going all the way back 11 years to the release of “Ultima Online,” the first MMO to reach 100,000 subscribers, he said that there have only a been handful of successful MMOs compared to the number of them being developed.

Bolded part is true... if you ignore the movie industry (which can spend 3x what the most expensive MMOs cost to make over the same time period and flop, and which release numerous titles per year) and the music industry (which has literally thousands of releases per year, so your individual chance of success isn't great).

In actuality, it appears if you can get your MMO out the door and launch, it is likely to survive for a bit. There are some notable exceptions - the pseudo-MMO HG:L, Motor City Online, and so on - but a MMO appears a lot more likely to die its death in development than release.

Of course, if 'success' is defined as 'money hats for even the janitor', then yes, success is indeed an elusive fellow.

He also said that no matter how great you think your game is, developers must listen to the community.

Can someone please link me to the WAR official forums plz? Oh, that's right, Jacobs doesn't believe in forums. Which has to include the unofficial ones as well. So where does this 'listen to the community' actually fit in?

"you also need to deflate the ego a little bit"

He added, “If we don’t succeed with EA behind us, the ‘Warhammer’ IP behind us, with one of the most experienced teams in the industry, that’s not going to be good for the industry. "

Irony. If WAR doesn't succeed, MMOs are in trouble, but we are humble people.

I know I'm being a bit about this interview, but the spin on it sticks in my craw.

[UnsGub]

So where does this 'listen to the community' actually fit in?

Thousand of beta testers will provide more feedback, just from the in game UI alone, then they can process.

Listening in not the challenge but rather making actionable items from the sea of opinion.

Why is all the tech and management behind MMOs missing from discussions.  Managing large teams, billing systems, support, server farms, build systems, test systems, software deploys, and 24/7 services is not trivial and is a large part of the equation to successfull running an MMO.

[MahrinSkel]

Irony. If WAR doesn't succeed, MMOs are in trouble, but we are humble people.

Not so much.  It's been a long dry spell since WoW.  Last time we saw flop after flop, people were telling the investment community MMO's were destined to be a minor and unimportant internet fad.  It was DAoC that broke that one, and many circumstances have lined up the same way this time.

If WAR goes down in flames, what's the Next Big Thing?  How many projects will fail to get additional funding?  How many won't get even initial funding?


--Dave

[UnSub]

So where does this 'listen to the community' actually fit in?

Thousand of beta testers will provide more feedback, just from the in game UI alone, then they can process.

But that stops at the end of beta and every patch from now on reduces the relevancy of anything taken out of beta. Also, beta isn't the live environment, which is a whole different animal.

... also, it now looks like I'm talking to myself unless you pay close attention to the names. 

[UnSub]

If WAR goes down in flames, what's the Next Big Thing?  How many projects will fail to get additional funding?  How many won't get even initial funding?

When WotLK launches and sells 8 million copies, people will forget a little bit about what happens with WAR. They will remember AoC selling 800k box copies (and I expect WAR will sell similar numbers) as well. It says the market is hungry for an alternative, but the alternative has to be good.

And if another "everything we know about MMOs we learned from WoW" MMO fails to launch, then is it really a bad thing? Or another high fantasy, elves vs orcs extravaganza doesn't make it off design documents, is the MMO industry really worse off?

As for the Next Big Thing: Darkfall. 

[WindupAtheist]

The incestuous little "spawn of everquest" MMO industry fails, and meets it's deserved death at the hands of Blizzard.  I can't wait.

No, this isn't supposed to be in green.

[Ingmar]

Just a gut feeling, but I don't think WAR will do any better than AoC.

I agree.  Remember your first MMO.  Remember how fun it was OMG playing with other people on-line, killing monsters and getting treasure.  Remember the challenge?  Now think back to your second MMO - same stuff but you know what? That MMO gameplay is really quite boring.

I've tried a lot of MMOs, and I have actually recaptured this feeling, albeit only a couple times. Once was WoW. CoH came close. Once, to my great and everlasting surprise, was WAR on preview weekend.

[Falwell]

He also said that no matter how great you think your game is, developers must listen to the community.

Can someone please link me to the WAR official forums plz? Oh, that's right, Jacobs doesn't believe in forums. Which has to include the unofficial ones as well. So where does this 'listen to the community' actually fit in?

Ok since ya nailed this one Sub, I won't go into that tasteless Darkfall comment above me.

You cannot come off as serious about community when you refuse to create one yourself.

[Ingmar]

That has always been my #1 complaint about Mythic. They absolutely *suck* at communicating with their customers, no matter how many people inexplicably pat Sanya on the back for her condescending grab bags. I had hoped that with her out of the decision process Mythic might join the real world and host, moderate, and God forbid, participate on their own forums, but apparently the directive came from on high.

Compare Blizzard's feedback on the WotLK beta forums to what Mythic gave back even to their own hand-picked Pendragon testers on the forum they *did* host... ok, no, there's no comparison. Turbine and Cryptic also easily beat Mythic at this game.

[Ratman_tf]

I liked DAoC, but everything I've heard about WAR leads me to believe that it's DAoC 2.0. And why should such a game break even double DAoC's numbers? (I predict it will do about the same. Gonna put a pretend internet fiver on that one.)

I'll be glad to be proven wrong. When WAR launches and either I get a free trial, or the unwashed internet masses start crowing about how it is indeed something different.

Till then, not interested.

[CharlieMopps]

Some day a developer will actually finish an mmo before they release it... then all will wonder "What was their magic? How did they get all those subscribers?!?" Friggin morons.

[Nevermore]

And what’s most important — something that so many developers forget — is you also need to deflate the ego a little bit.

Physician, heal thyself.

[Slayerik]

The incestuous little "spawn of everquest" MMO industry fails, and meets it's deserved death at the hands of Blizzard.  I can't wait.

No, this isn't supposed to be in green.

What do we have that could be considered a spawn of UO (and UO being a success in its own right, still making money after all these years) ? Eve is the only one I can think of. They are making great cash even after a rough start.

I think another sandbox PVP type game could come along and pull very similar numbers or better. Just be different. Make it a post-apoc setting, or cyber-punk....hell, a Battletech/Mechwarrior setting.

Just do something besides elves, swords, and FUCKING diku.

[rk47]

I agree with the lack of non-medieval fantasy MMO that is successful. I never gave SWG / Tabula Rasa a shot but a new setting would definitely feel more 'fresh' than the same elves in different places. I just can't get excited over Warhammer after playing WoW for so long.

With the heavy focus on Battlegrounds it'd only be a matter of time I'll feel like I'm grinding on AV stage 1, 2 ,3 ,4 ,5 ,and 6

[Khaldun]

Totally agree that Jacobs is full of shit on the "listen to customers" thing, given that this has always been a problem that Mythic has had AND that Jacobs has decided to not run forums because, well, he doesn't want to listen to customers. Oh, sorry, I mean that they have a "magic method" for getting real customer feedback as opposed to those unrepresentative forums which as we know having nothing to do with how people feel. Which raises questions about Jacobs knows about customer reactions to Age of Conan, presumably, since he doesn't believe in and doesn't bother with forums, given that they return no valuable or important information about customer reaction.

Come on. Warhammer has no official forums because if things *do* go wrong in any way, he's hoping that will dampen the reaction and keep the news from spreading too widely. WTG on the "listen to your customers" idea.

[Miasma]

Yes the listen to customers but no official forums stance is just retarded.

[Nebu]

I liked DAoC, but everything I've heard about WAR leads me to believe that it's DAoC 2.0.

I played DAoC for 5+ years.  I can assure you that WAR is NOT DAoC 2.  If it were, I'd be more excited about it.  

[Ratman_tf]

I liked DAoC, but everything I've heard about WAR leads me to believe that it's DAoC 2.0.

I played DAoC for 5+ years.  I can assure you that WAR is NOT DAoC 2.  If it were, I'd be more excited about it.  

Like I said, all I've got to go on is that it's got PvE and RvR. And classes and levels. And Waaaargh! (Whatever the fuck that's supposed to mean.)

And considering that I liked DAoC, but didn't love it...

[LC]

I liked DAoC, but everything I've heard about WAR leads me to believe that it's DAoC 2.0.

I played DAoC for 5+ years.  I can assure you that WAR is NOT DAoC 2.  If it were, I'd be more excited about it.  

It's WoW battlegrounds plus keep tag. It didn't seem very innovative to me. In fact I was bored after a day. If it has more subscribers than LOTRO six months from now I will be surprised.

[Nebu]

It's WoW battlegrounds plus keep tag.

That's pretty accurate.  The thing that helps WAR is that it's a more accessible PvP experience than either DAoC or WoW, particularly for those that have avoided pvp in the past.  I think it's a decent attempt to mass market a larger scale PvP or RvR game to the average MMO enthusiast.   Sadly, new players haven't discovered that they exist solely to provide targets for people that take their PvP seriously.   

[slog]

The incestuous little "spawn of everquest" MMO industry fails, and meets it's deserved death at the hands of Blizzard.  I can't wait.

No, this isn't supposed to be in green.

your personal dislike of the genre is influencing your predictions.  at this poing I should be sayin all the "if you hate mmo's why do you post about them" and all that crap.  Then you reply with something about how you like the games, just not how tehy are made and it goes on and on and on.

Cevik is right though.  Most the folks here don't like MMORPGs, and you want them to fail

[Slayerik]

The incestuous little "spawn of everquest" MMO industry fails, and meets it's deserved death at the hands of Blizzard.  I can't wait.

No, this isn't supposed to be in green.

your personal dislike of the genre is influencing your predictions.  at this poing I should be sayin all the "if you hate mmo's why do you post about them" and all that crap.  Then you reply with something about how you like the games, just not how tehy are made and it goes on and on and on.

Cevik is right though.  Most the folks here don't like MMORPGs, and you want them to fail

I'm getting to that point, yeah.

Lack of imagination and balls from all these companies is taking its toll. It's cool though, in another 5 years and 5 more clone failures someone MIGHT try something different.

[Nebu]

Cevik is right though.  Most the folks here don't like MMORPGs, and you want them to fail

Rubbish.  Most people here enjoy playing games, including MMOs.  We're all just disappointed that some VERY creative people with 50 million dollar budgets continue to produce the same old derivative stuff.

[cevik]

Cevik is right though.

Never ever ever, combine these words.

[cevik]

If WAR goes down in flames, what's the Next Big Thing?  How many projects will fail to get additional funding?  How many won't get even initial funding?


--Dave

If WAR goes down in flames, then the funding dries up, everyone with cash chalks WoW up to a big giant fluke and the guys responsible for making all the shitty games out there are finally out of a job (or, hopefully, will get jobs in other industries where they can do me no harm but still have money and health insurance for their wives and kids).

Then World of Starcraft comes out, sells 15 million copies in the first nanosecond, we strip the world dry of resources just to make enough boxes to sell the game for the first year, and suddenly funding explodes for the mmog market again because WoS (STAR?) has proven that mmogs are capable of selling a bazillion copies if made by a competent group of people.  We get an influx of fresh new developers into the mmog genre because all the old guard got culled in this iteration and suddenly we start to see fresh and innovative ideas that are worth playing.

Hey, I can dream.

EDIT:  More importantly than fresh and innovative ideas (though you'd never guess it by looking at the industry today) is competently created ideas.  Fuck we just want something that works, half the time it doesn't even have to be fun.

[Nebu]

WoW needs competition.  Competition drives change and innovation.  When all competition fails in the wake of WoW, we all lose. 

Granted, the massive succes could produce one fabulous outcome: That you can stay niche and still be profitable, just on a smaller scale.  I'd love to see development of a host fo niche titles that all generated modest profit.  It's not a homerun, but it certainly could generate an existence for some very good designers. 

[slog]

Cevik is right though.  Most the folks here don't like MMORPGs, and you want them to fail

Rubbish.  Most people here enjoy playing games, including MMOs.  We're all just disappointed that some VERY creative people with 50 million dollar budgets continue to produce the same old derivative stuff.

MMORPGS are derivative.  Millions of people like this.