WAR - another newsletter - more RvR, less sport PvP

[Draegan]

I don't mind paying the extra cash as long as the quality of product is superior to what's out there.

[Soukyan]

I cant imagine they'd price it at 20/month.  I could see 16.99 or 17.99 maybe.  But not 20.  Of course I'm just guessing here, I doubt they even know yet.  I remember Mark Jacobs talking about how Bliz set the spending and quality bar really high and pointing out the price per month has been static for a long time now.  It's bound to go up eventually just like anything else.  I doubt they want to be the first to do it but who knows what the financial realities are. 

Well, who was the first to bump it up before? I believe DAoC raised the bar to 12.99 per month when everyone else was at 9.99, but my memory is cloudy on this one. WoW is chugging along at 15 as is Eve. EQ2 is 15, but then you've got add-on fees for more slots, web features, etc. which can raise it to 20+ per month. Then there's the All-Access Pass which is up to 30 per month. I would be willing to wager they could push the bar to 17.99 per month and get away with it when they release Warhammer Online. I don't know that they will, but it could be done with little to no complaining. That would also increase the range and allow for more "budget" MMOGs to sneak in at the 9.99 range.

[stu]

I'll pay $18/mo, but I'll be damned if I have to go up to twenty. That's one less bottle of Mad Dog I get to turn into piss.

[spiralyguy]

Trying to fight against the players who are going to actively go looking for "cookie cutter" layouts is fruitless (and as vocal as they may be on forums, they're honestly the minority). Instead, we're simply making sure that every decision is usable, even if it’s not optimal.

Hmm... usable but not optimal.  Isn't that a good way to describe every crap talent from every RPG with crap talents that nobody ever uses?

translation:
"Yea we know there's a perfect cookie cutter build but we'll provide some other "fluff" talents so you can gimp yourself for the sake of being different."

Meh... I had been buying into the WAR hype for a while... but after looking at their webpage and some of the videos available I'm concerned this is going to turn out as another Developer hype fest that flops on it's face at release *caugh*vanguard*caugh*  :-/

[shiznitz]

Easy there. The dev hype for WAR is still light years behind VG.

[Dash]

Well, who was the first to bump it up before? I believe DAoC raised the bar to 12.99 per month when everyone else was at 9.99, but my memory is cloudy on this one. WoW is chugging along at 15 as is Eve. EQ2 is 15, but then you've got add-on fees for more slots, web features, etc. which can raise it to 20+ per month. Then there's the All-Access Pass which is up to 30 per month. I would be willing to wager they could push the bar to 17.99 per month and get away with it when they release Warhammer Online. I don't know that they will, but it could be done with little to no complaining. That would also increase the range and allow for more "budget" MMOGs to sneak in at the 9.99 range.

Yeah for me personally if I like it 17.99 is no big deal at all.  Thing is like Draegan said people wouldnt care if it's better than the other stuff out there, but WoW is out there at 15.  So now if you raise it you're saying indirectly:  "We're worth more than WoW". 

That's really sticking yourself out there for criticism.  Still if it's a modest increase I dont think it will be a huge deal.

[AngryGumball]

Hate to say it I know they did the stop and go with beta after I saw it, but the last two years from what I've seen at San Diego Comic-Con this is not worth more than the current going rate for a monthly fee MMO game.

I do not have faith that what they have done to the game will warrant a one/two/three dollar increase in monthly fee for a mmo.

This still does not dampen my excitement for it, This does not douse my belief that the community support will be any different or improved with a higher montly fee. Will still see gamebreaking non true gaming names. Matter of fact with wow its getting worse.

Zero faith that an increase in monthly fee will be directly applied to the customer service level of a MMO such that it would have a direct affect of improving the community. Otherwise I would pay for an increase if I knew that.

[Nebu]

Be interesting to consider how WoW would have fared with a $20 monthly charge.  I have a hard time believing it would have turned off 25% of their subscribers. 

[spiralyguy]

Thing is like Draegan said people wouldnt care if it's better than the other stuff out there, but WoW is out there at 15.  So now if you raise it you're saying indirectly:  "We're worth more than WoW".  

That's really sticking yourself out there for criticism.  Still if it's a modest increase I dont think it will be a huge deal.

This is a really good point.  By pricing yourself higher then the top dog you are REALLY giving the impression that your game is the best shit since sliced bread.

I mean... take a look at Hellgate.  Yea I know the game is kinda bad so it's not the best analogy, however:  One of the worst mistakes FSS made I think (and their forum community seems to agree) is trying to justifiy a subscription of their game.  If they would have made it free to play like diablo, expectations would have been much lower.  Instead they charged the same price as WoW and so, justifiably, people compare the two games, when really they should never have been compared.  So because people are paying 15 a month they want mail, auction houses, a stable economy, an end-game, new content and so on.  I don't think people would be harping on those features nearly as much if there was no subscription at all.

So yea, charging higher then WoW is really asking to be compared in every single detail.  If there's even a single feature that's lacking or is superior in WoW suddenly it will become a huge issue because "This game is supposed to be better then WoW!".  IMO if they're smart they price it the same or less then WoW, pricing higher seems suicidal.

Be interesting to consider how WoW would have fared with a $20 monthly charge.  I have a hard time believing it would have turned off 25% of their subscribers. 

I think they would have done fine too.  Thing is, WoW released at a VERY opportune time.  EQ1 was dying and other MMO's were not picking up the slack.  EQ2's initial launch was pretty horrid, I believe around that time SW:G got hosed with their combat update, so the only real competitor was..... uh, DAoC?  Besides, WoW actually was significantly better then everything on the market.  I would have a very hard time believing that WAR will be as large a step up from WoW as WoW was from EQ1.  You know?

[Nebu]

Besides, WoW actually was significantly better then everything on the market.  I would have a very hard time believing that WAR will be as large a step up from WoW as WoW was from EQ1.  You know?

I do.  I agree.  I think that no matter what WAR does, it will be a decidedly niche game.  I'm just not sure they are willing to accept that.  The saving grace is that WAR may satisfy a larger niche than we've seen in the mmog market before.  Hell, I never would have believed that WoW would have so many PvP servers.  So I should just watch and learn rather than making more bad predicitions. 

[tazelbain]

Digital music players were niche until someone did it well.

At 15 bucks WAR has a 5-10% chance of being the next WoW.  Raising the price removes any chance.  The question is probably greed vs. envy for EA.  Raising the price is a good greed move(extract as much money from the Walking Wallets ASAP).  But I think EA desperately envies the dominate position that Vendi commands in MMOG market and won't put themselves at a price disadvantage.

[sidereal]

Is that related to immersion? Would you be okay with a fantasy/archaic setting having ads if they were thematically appropriate - for instance having a town barker calling them?

Ye Auld Penyse Enlargementte

[eldaec]

Besides, WoW actually was significantly better then everything on the market.  I would have a very hard time believing that WAR will be as large a step up from WoW as WoW was from EQ1.  You know?

I do.  I agree.  I think that no matter what WAR does, it will be a decidedly niche game.  I'm just not sure they are willing to accept that.  The saving grace is that WAR may satisfy a larger niche than we've seen in the mmog market before.  Hell, I never would have believed that WoW would have so many PvP servers.  So I should just watch and learn rather than making more bad predicitions. 

I think this depends on definitions of niche.

I imagine they are thinking of a mimimum of at least 500k, and won't be totally satisfied without 1M. I don't know that they'll get either amount, but I'm sure they will get substantially more than DAoC's 250k.

The question right now is, what counts as niche when one product outsells the rest by a factor of ten?

[Triforcer]

WAR will do alot better than anyone here thinks.  Half (or maybe slightly less, I dunno) of WoW's servers are pvp servers.

For people who don't know WoW PvP rules, outside of the newbie zones (generally up to level 20ish) EVERY zone is available for 70 on lvl 25 gankage.  And yet, those dozens and dozens of servers still exist.  People who know WoW has pvp servers in the abstract are always shocked when they learn 1) the number of such servers, and 2) how comparatively hardcore and non-consensual the ruleset is. 

There is a HUGE market for realm pvp.  I will consider anything less than a million for WAR an epic fail.  Hell, there are over 560k beta apps alone. 

[Modern Angel]

I'll go one further given their RPG division announcement, rash of store closings and four straight years of tanking stocks: if WoW flops or is too niche GW will sell itself to the highest bidder or close within four years of launch.

[tmp]

WAR will do alot better than anyone here thinks.  Half (or maybe slightly less, I dunno) of WoW's servers are pvp servers.

For people who don't know WoW PvP rules, outside of the newbie zones (generally up to level 20ish) EVERY zone is available for 70 on lvl 25 gankage.

How much world PvP actually happens on these servers though, vs the 'game PvP' in the arenas and such?

[IainC]

I'll go one further given their RPG division announcement, rash of store closings and four straight years of tanking stocks: if WoW flops or is too niche GW will sell itself to the highest bidder or close within four years of launch.

GW doesn't need video game money to stay afloat. They're half way through a cost reduction program that is costing them £4million a year but will save them a lot more down the road and they have a new CEO which is why their stock is low. Closing the RPG division (practically the smallest part of their business) is not a sign of the end times.

Having been present for a serious crunch at GW, I can safely say that they aren't afraid to wield the axe when it's needed.

[Modern Angel]

True but it also smacks of a sense of desperation. Their stock has tanked for nearly four years now with no end in sight. Closing up one guy and some freelancers under the misguided notion that all of the folks who played the pen and paper game are going to flock to Warhammer or 40K to drop 300 bucks an army is absolute lunacy. This is especially true given the corporate mantra of 'no advertising, good word of mouth'.

I've got no dog in that hunt. I got out of the minis several years ago due to the price increases putting the games out of my market. I was low on the totem pole, just being a lead in a store for a year in 99, but I saw enough to know that, in the estimation of my coworkers and I, these guys have some serious problems adjusting to market changes. I've no idea how much money they can or can't make on WAR and I hope it succeeds since I still love the world but I have some serious doubts as to whether or not the company can hang with more bad news for the stockholders.

EDIT: I should add that I'm not certain if hiring a suit from a shampoo company is going to solve their problems, mainly that they've increasingly forgotten that they dwell in a niche market making games. Cost cutting is great but I see little indication that their sales are suddenly going to spike to make up the loss.

[Ratman_tf]

At 15 bucks WAR has a 5-10% chance of being the next WoW.

[tazelbain]

I give myself 90-95% wiggle room!  Have you seen the WAR demo videos? There is massive intrest in Warhammer.

[Ratman_tf]

I give myself 90-95% wiggle room!  Have you seen the WAR demo videos? There is massive intrest in Warhammer.

A bunch of excited mini painting dorks* <> 10 million subscribers.

*Let me show you my Tau. Let me show you them...

[tazelbain]

And a bunch of excited RTS fanbois != 10 million subscribers, either.  But both are good starting points.  At least Warhammer fans are gamers of a sort, which is better than SWG can say.  And SWG still did awesome on it intial box sales.  Anyway, my point is there is euthisactic fanbase for WAR and they "could" hit the ball out of park.   Which is different than AoC, DDO, LotRO, TR, and VG; they have/had no chance because their fanbase is either to small or mostly non-gamers.  DDO is special case, I think their fanbase was fantigued.

[Nebu]

I think WAR will hit the 500k mark, but my optimism doesn't go much beyond that.  I just don't see how they are offering much that the WoW fanbase would be willing to leave for.  Beyond the WoW fanbase, here just aren't all that many new subscribers out there.  As optimistic as any analyst can be, I think that getting players in this MMO market means largely taking them from WoW.  

[Nija]

There is a HUGE market for realm pvp.  I will consider anything less than a million for WAR an epic fail.  Hell, there are over 560k beta apps alone. 

560k beta apps = "Hey, it's free in beta. Why not sign up?" There isn't a snowball's chance in hell that they'll have a million subs.

[tmp]

I just don't see how they are offering much that the WoW fanbase would be willing to leave for.  Beyond the WoW fanbase, here just aren't all that many new subscribers out there.  As optimistic as any analyst can be, I think that getting players in this MMO market means largely taking them from WoW.  

Offering "similar but not WoW" could actually be enough to make part of WoW playerbase take a dip. I mean, doing the same old shit for x years does eventually get old and people might want a change, in particular when that change isn't *too* drastic but still involves start for everyone with clean slate (and thus in their minds a chance to be on top of new world order rather than Joe Nobody 87430)

[eldaec]

I think WAR will hit the 500k mark, but my optimism doesn't go much beyond that.  I just don't see how they are offering much that the WoW fanbase would be willing to leave for.  Beyond the WoW fanbase, here just aren't all that many new subscribers out there.  As optimistic as any analyst can be, I think that getting players in this MMO market means largely taking them from WoW. 

Fair enough, though at 500k it would be the second most successful full price MMOG ever in the western markets, and a 100% increase on Mythic's last product, with a publisher who has seen nothing but epic fail in the genre, and with a European partner..... who can be most charitably refered to as 'not having the greatest track record'.

I just have a hard time seeing that as niche or underwhelming performance.


To coin a phrase, it would pretty much be a triumph. I'd be making a note here, huge success.

[Dash]

The question right now is, what counts as niche when one product outsells the rest by a factor of ten?

I usually go by what would be considered good pre-WoW.  Pre Wow, correct me if I'm wrong here, 500k would be phenomenal.  So figure WoW expanded the base by a lot, but still 500k is more than good.  To me, below 300k and it's a disappointment.  Anything over 500 is gravy.

[eldaec]

Before WoW people chortled heartily at the idea of a MMOG that would break the half million. Fragmentation of the market was the trend, and "the community" was sat about asking why it was getting so warm and why are we all sitting in this handbasket.

From the prediction thread...

Warhammer Online December 2008 predictions

Angry.bob: 5 millions
Shapechanger: 3,5 millions
Datagod: 1,8 millions
Modern Angel: 1,5 millions
Darniaq: 1.5 millions
Trouble: 1,5 millions
Arthur Parker: 1 million
Falconeer: 1 million
Riggswolfe: 1 million
Evangolis: 930k
Simond: 750k
Sairon: 700k
Damijin: 650k
Soln: 500k
Comstar: 450k
Eldaec: 350k
Waylander: 350k
HaemishM: 350k
WindUpAtheist: 325k
HRose: 300k
Strazos: 236k
Unsub: 190k
Lantyssa: 175k
Stray: 150k
Xuri: 150k
Cheddar: 45k

Make of that what you will, but a range of 150k to 1.8 million (ignoring extreme crazy people) probably suggests nobody knows wtf is going to happen.

[AngryGumball]

  Anyway, my point is there is euthisactic fanbase for WAR and they "could" hit the ball out of park.

Thing is we already know what the gameplay is like, where is the mystery by now of what the gameplay is like. We have PVE quests ok....same thing done in other MMOs, we have pvp combat, ok....we know what that is like we just have to actually play to see if it works, again nothing special here.

Its just new, and its warhammer, and there are small things different. Should be no mystery on the mythical homerun that might be hit. Its just a new MMO that is not WoW, or other MMO out. I think they are hurting themselves with the factions 3 way instead of all or nothing factions, no groupings of races, groups boring 3 way, we've seen that already in another MMO.

I still do not see a reason to raise the monthly price. Anything else is a lie about raising costs. Just like UO people in charge tried to justify their raise in cost from $9.99 a month to $12.99. EA people lied about improving customer service. LIED!

I'm still excited to play, Day One! Hope to find a good group community. Its not a homerun MMO its simply new MMO with a topic I like. 3 Factions = stupid game design decision.

[Modern Angel]

Oh, I think it's going to get around a million if you ask me today. The wild card is what EA and GW consider a success. They've not exactly proven themselves to be content with respectable also ran status over the years. I also have very serious doubts about their level of commitment when and if they reach that status.

[Ratman_tf]

Fair enough, though at 500k it would be the second most successful full price MMOG ever in the western markets, and a 100% increase on Mythic's last product, with a publisher who has seen nothing but epic fail in the genre, and with a European partner..... who can be most charitably refered to as 'not having the greatest track record'.

I just have a hard time seeing that as niche or underwhelming performance.


To coin a phrase, it would pretty much be a triumph. I'd be writing a note here, big success.

Agree. There is good, successful number of subscribers, and then there is WOW sub numbers.

And I just cannot see a Warhammer game appealing to every soccer mom, office boss, gamer and girlfriend alike, like WoW does.

[Aez]

There is a HUGE market for realm pvp.  I will consider anything less than a million for WAR an epic fail.  Hell, there are over 560k beta apps alone. 

560k beta apps = "Hey, it's free in beta. Why not sign up?" There isn't a snowball's chance in hell that they'll have a million subs.

Anyone remember the numbers for WoW?  My google-fu isn't strong enough.

[Merusk]

And a bunch of excited RTS fanbois != 10 million subscribers, either.  But both are good starting points.  At least Warhammer fans are gamers of a sort, which is better than SWG can say.  And SWG still did awesome on it intial box sales.  Anyway, my point is there is euthisactic fanbase for WAR and they "could" hit the ball out of park.   Which is different than AoC, DDO, LotRO, TR, and VG; they have/had no chance because their fanbase is either to small or mostly non-gamers.  DDO is special case, I think their fanbase was fantigued.

However, WoW fanbois were video gamers, and at the very least acquainted with the mantra of, "put in your time, then you get to pwn" that all video games follow.  WAR fanbois probably video game, but it's vastly different from the miniature game.. YOu don't control an army, a troop or even a squad. You control ONE person.. and then you have to level them up.  No "instant action" or "jump right into it" a-la Guild Wars or Miniatures.

I think that's a breaking point if the 'leveling up' is more painful than it should be.  I am also 90% certain the leveling up will be more painful than it should be and in all likelihood take longer than it does to get a char from 1-70 in WoW. That's not a good thing if they're expecting 500k+.

Also, there's still a ton of +pvp servers in WoW because all of the hardcore pve folks went there, for some reason I don't know.   My server is the only PvE realm in the top  20 worldwide, afaik (I'm not certain on all the EU PvP realms, but Alleria is my PvE server)  So, if you want PvE you still roll on a PvP server because there's no way to get into the 'leet guilds from a PvE server, and Risen is hardcore in a way that makes old school FoH look like casuals.

[Morfiend]

I am going to go out on a limb and say 1.2mil+ fairly quickly. I think a LOT of people in WoW are only still playing because there really is nothing out there that to them can compare. When war comes out, I think it will be billed as "WoW but newer with better PVP". I think if the PVP mechanics are well done and CC isnt over the top, the WoW PVPers will flock to it.

[Dash]

Yah I say 500k but I'm not confident.  It looks like something I'll like but I'm still cynical.   

The game *looks* like it's being run by grown ups, has good funding, competent people, experienced in the industry, no crazy drama.  As always though I'll never know til I try it hopefully in a semi-open beta or something.  NDA drop would be nice too.