New and Improved Poker thread

[WayAbvPar]

How to know when you are officially running bad-

A) Lost almost half of your bankroll in the past 2+ weeks? Check
B) Getting rivered with a mindnumbing frequency? Check
C) Are finally convinced that the dealers are conspiring against you? Check

C) came last night. 4/8 full kill game. I ran my initial buyin of $100 to $260 in the first hour. Then I started losing. None of my draws hit, but ALL my opponents did. The final straw came when I got Ah Kh in late position. 2 limpers to me, I raise. The dealer then realizes that he forgot to move the button before dealing, so it is a misdeal. I ship the cards back in with a growl. Dealer sends me 88 the next deal. I once again raise, get a caller in the BB. Flop is K high, he checks, I check. Turn was a 5. He bets I call. River was another low card. Bet, call. Villain turns over AK. Hero's head explodes in frustration.

This can be a cruel fucking game sometimes.

[Abagadro]

I hate runs like that. I'm actually on a hot streak over the last few trips. The deck absolutely hit me in the face last time with flopped nut flushes, trips and even quads. It will turn around.

[LK]

I had 15 minutes to play.  Crazy, I know.  But I sat down with $100 at a No Limit table, with $2 / $3, intent on leaving if I lose it all or win $50.  After 5 minutes I'm down $50 due to bad beats or good pocket + bad flop.  Cards come up Q 10 unsuited.  I figure, WTH, people go in with this, and call.  Someone ahead of me raises to 25, I figure A something, not a high pocket pair.  There's another caller, and I figure, well, hell, why not, and go in.  Flop comes down 10 9 5, all unsuited.  I lead the bet with $25, big raiser calls, so I know he's got two overcards.  The second caller decides to go all in for an extra 20 bucks or something, which I only have $12 left, so I go in.  Big raiser calls.

Two other cards come down, one a 9 to pair the board and another low card.  I flip my Q 10 with top pair (10 10 9 9 Q).  Big raiser had AQ suited.  All-In didn't show his cards but said he was beat, so maybe a low pocket pair, like 8 or something.

Walked out with $115 profit.  Decided to not try and play the rest of the 5 minutes I had.

I'm actually quite happy and willing to stop playing if I am up by a significant margin.  Maybe not as soon as I walk in, but it was most satisfying to leave the poker house up after leaving so many times down.

[WayAbvPar]

Still running so bad it is surreal. Knocked out of two tournaments in the following fashion-

First- Shove from MP with 88. Get called by As7s. He makes 7 high straight on the river, I go home.

2nd- Shove from LP with 33. Called by Ac3c. Flop is 247. Turn 4. River 7. I go home and cry.

This week the card barn has 5 drawings a night for $1000 each for the people who clock hours. I have 4 tickets, so I will probably be there every night trying to rebuild my bankroll the old fasioned way- luckboxing!

[Abagadro]

Shove from LP with 33. Called by Ac3c. Flop is 247. Turn 4. River 7. I go home and cry.

This is my all-time most hated way to lose when your pair gets counterfeited by two-pair on the board and some lame-ass kicker takes it. BUT, you better have had some good fold equity or been mighty short to go all in with that ugly of a hand.

[UD_Delt]

Just played a 55k guaranteed on absolute this weekend ($11 + Rebuy + Addon). Ended up in for $31 after the initial double load and the add-on. Never had to actually rebuy before the rebuy period ended. Slightly below average after the rebuy period is over with an M around 20.

Chip leader in the tourney is at my table and is raising nearly every hand to 4xbb. I get QQ and open limp to the chip leader who makes the typical raise to 4x. One other caller and back to me and I shove figuring I'm going to get called by any A from the chip lead and not too worried about the caller since he'd reraise if he had QQ beat. Chip lead does call, other player folds. He has A5s.

Flop 4,6,7. Turn 8. I'm done.

[WayAbvPar]

Shove from LP with 33. Called by Ac3c. Flop is 247. Turn 4. River 7. I go home and cry.

This is my all-time most hated way to lose when your pair gets counterfeited by two-pair on the board and some lame-ass kicker takes it. BUT, you better have had some good fold equity or been mighty short to go all in with that ugly of a hand.

I had just under 10 big blinds left, so I was short stacked but should still have had quite a bit of fold equity. Unless someone picked up a monster like A7s, of course. 

Played last night while waiting in vain for my name to be called in the 5 drawing per hour for 1k. Got AA in my first SB, folded to the button who limped (THANK GOD- I would have been on instant  tilt having to chop with AA). Flopped a set, filled up on the river, and won a decent pot  (button had a K, flopped another and rivered a 3rd. No good!). Up and down the rest of the night, but actually hit a couple of draws and even semibluffed to  a win on the turn when I flopped a SF draw in LP, raised on the flop, and bet the turn. High hand is worth $500, but I would rather take down the pot than try to hit a 44-1 shot by checking.  Ended up $25 to the good, which felt like $500 after the month I have had. Back for more abuse tonight.

[Furiously]

You know, you could just stop by my house, give me $100. I'd then kick you in the nuts and send you on your way home.

Think of the time you could save. Plus you could pick up your DVD I borrowed.

[WayAbvPar]

Not to mention see that boy of yours! You gotta bring him over for a visit before he is in high school.

[Furiously]

Not to mention see that boy of yours! You gotta bring him over for a visit before he is in high school.

He'll kick you in the nuts too.

[NiX]

I'm blind or they don't exist. I'm looking for an online poker place that lets you create private rooms. Anyone know of any?

[Paelos]

Still running so bad it is surreal. Knocked out of two tournaments in the following fashion-

First- Shove from MP with 88. Get called by As7s. He makes 7 high straight on the river, I go home.

2nd- Shove from LP with 33. Called by Ac3c. Flop is 247. Turn 4. River 7. I go home and cry.

This week the card barn has 5 drawings a night for $1000 each for the people who clock hours. I have 4 tickets, so I will probably be there every night trying to rebuild my bankroll the old fasioned way- luckboxing!

I hate to say it, but when I'm in the total suckout stage, I stop playing pockets below Jacks. It's just not worth it unless you hit trips on the flop, and when you're down you never seem to have it happen. Let your luck turn around, but until then play extra tight on Tier 1-3 hands.

[trias_e]

If you don't play optimal poker all the time at the end of tournaments you are losing money.  Period.  It's all math. 

That's why I don't play tournaments.  I don't have the patience for them and I can't stand just how big of a blow suckouts are to you near the end.  I don't mind losing 200 BB with AA vs. KK in a ring game so much as I mind playing 5 hours in a tournament and getting bubbled due to a suckouts (one which is often caused by standard operation procedure for both players)

[Khaldun]

If Atlantic City were a bit closer, I'd go there more often to play. I did find it easier to play online back before I decided it was no good doing that (illegality + bad collusion problems]: it's too easy to get nervous against real people. Or to be annoyed by them. Last time I was in LA I went down to the Hustler poker tables with my brother and there was this Turkish guy there who was just a fucking monster asshole. I was up pretty well against him, he was limping in with rags and other people were letting him, but then I got involved in a big hand with him and it became an ego-must-get-him thing, to my downfall. I know, works for Phil Hellman, it's probably very deliberate on this guy's part as well.

I really prefer NL and tourney play, though tourney play is mostly not the thing to do if you're honest to god trying to make some money. In the same time it takes to play a small tourney, I can make more than the payoff for 1st playing a NL table. On the other hand, whenever I play NL (usually 1-2), there's a way bigger danger of busting out on a call that's basically the right call to make. Last time I was in Vegas, I was at a 1-2 NL table, up about $100.00 after an hour. 9 people at table. I get Qh Qd under the gun, I raise three times the blind. Fold fold call (big stack, only person who can cover me, very aggressive loose player who has been making a lot of marginal calls, his stack is big because of multiple rebuys) call fold fold around to BB who also calls. Flop is Jd 10d 5s. I figure I'm not up against KK or AA--the other two guys are relative donks, neither of them has slowplayed anything good, but I'm thinking there's at least one AK out there. I'm afraid of TT and JJ, but I decide to push and go all-in: I don't want people with a K or an A to draw, and that's about the only way to push them off. The loose guy calls me, the other two fold. He's got As Kc. The Kd comes down on the turn: FUCK. But I'm thinking: now any A, any diamond, or a Q and I win: I might have been committed to a call or raise even if I'd only put in a $10-$20 bet on a $25 pot on the flop, that's a lot of outs.

River is a 7h. So he wins, and I'm out $200.00. But it was kind of the right thing to do (wasn't it?), abstracted from the money involved, particularly given who up against (a guy with a demonstrated history of loose calls). In a limit game, you're insulated from those kinds of outcomes, but I just like the way NL plays. I find it easier to think through things.

What I like about tourney play is that the risk-reward calculation is way different. It frankly makes for a smarter, more interesting game even if the players are weak, and it also keeps a wealthier player from just spewing money into the game. A $1-2 NL game is no fun if a relatively decent player sits down with a big initial stack and zero concerns about whether he loses it, but in a tourney, everyone has to try and build the same initial investment without constantly rebuying.

[WayAbvPar]

Happy to report that I managed to control my tailspin and pull up inches before disaster. Played the last 3 nights (hoping in vain to get drawn for $1k- they are giving away $20k per night all week); +~$360. Taking a night off to rest and play some Madden tonight, but back to the salt mines tomorrow  :-D

[cmlancas]

Last time I was in Vegas, I was at a 1-2 NL table, up about $100.00 after an hour. 9 people at table. I get Qh Qd under the gun, I raise three times the blind. Fold fold call (big stack, only person who can cover me, very aggressive loose player who has been making a lot of marginal calls, his stack is big because of multiple rebuys) call fold fold around to BB who also calls. Flop is Jd 10d 5s. I figure I'm not up against KK or AA--the other two guys are relative donks, neither of them has slowplayed anything good, but I'm thinking there's at least one AK out there. I'm afraid of TT and JJ, but I decide to push and go all-in: I don't want people with a K or an A to draw, and that's about the only way to push them off. The loose guy calls me, the other two fold. He's got As Kc. The Kd comes down on the turn: FUCK. But I'm thinking: now any A, any diamond, or a Q and I win: I might have been committed to a call or raise even if I'd only put in a $10-$20 bet on a $25 pot on the flop, that's a lot of outs.

River is a 7h. So he wins, and I'm out $200.00. But it was kind of the right thing to do (wasn't it?), abstracted from the money involved, particularly given who up against (a guy with a demonstrated history of loose calls). In a limit game, you're insulated from those kinds of outcomes, but I just like the way NL plays. I find it easier to think through things.

Is it? Why wouldn't you have just made a pot size bet or a little more than a pot size bet to gauge where he is and find out the relative strength of your hand. If he just calls, your read is pretty right (considering you've pegged this guy as not-tricky) and you know where you are. But because you pushed all-in, you put yourself at needless risk -- if he's going to chase, let him chase your bets, not your stack. (This is how I've been playing lately and it helps me a TON. I'm way too agressive with the all-in shove.)

Wouldn't you have rather gotten away from your hand when the king hit rather than telling us your bad beat story? I'm not saying you did anything 'wrong;' you definitely got your money in with the best hand. But I think you also have to protect yourself when you don't have the absolute nuts.

[eldaec]

I'm blind or they don't exist. I'm looking for an online poker place that lets you create private rooms. Anyone know of any?

Absolute poker and 32red do it.

Pokerstars allow you to run private tourneys, but they say they will only do it once they've 'got to know you' and you need to send an email to support to ask to have it activated on your account.

[Khaldun]

Is it? Why wouldn't you have just made a pot size bet or a little more than a pot size bet to gauge where he is and find out the relative strength of your hand. If he just calls, your read is pretty right (considering you've pegged this guy as not-tricky) and you know where you are. But because you pushed all-in, you put yourself at needless risk -- if he's going to chase, let him chase your bets, not your stack. (This is how I've been playing lately and it helps me a TON. I'm way too agressive with the all-in shove.)

Yeah. I'm a bit of a blaster in this respect: bad habit. But in this case, I think I would have called on the turn even assuming I got a confirmation from a call on the flop, given the number of outs--and this guy was doing a lot of all-in on the turn betting to try and buy pots (he'd lost four times on weak hands that way to small stacks). Going all-in pushed out the other two hands (one guy said after he'd had A-7, the other guy I have no idea) as well.

[cmlancas]

Like I said, you didn't do anything wrong (You got your chips in with the best hand, what's wrong with that?), just around where I play, you have to really, really protect yourself and your stack or you'll get run down by people with 3-1 draws to your set/two pair/top top.

[WayAbvPar]

If the pot isn't offering them 3-1 odds, I am all for them chasing with draws. That is why you need to size your bets in NL to avoid offering your opponent the proper odds to draw against you. Unless, of course, you have a monster, in which case you want to give them enough rope to hang themselves.

[cmlancas]

Sklansky argues the opposite. He says that if you play with people who want to chase you down with 3-1 draws all the time, you will inevitably get chased down and lose your stack. The advice I offered up is a paraphrase of his advice.

I definitely agree with where you're coming from, but my local cardroom is brimming with people who chase. I'm almost guaranteed one caller if I push all in if someone has me covered with a 3-1 draw even if they are getting terrible pot odds, so I feel like I have to adjust and play more hit-to-win instead of straightforward poker.


I will also offer an interesting tidbit gleaned from one of my good friends at work at a table with Daniel Negreanu. She was in a MTT final table with him (Airing in January on The Travel Channel -- cool to see her on a final table on TV!) and they began to talk about hands that more or less cripple the deck. She offered up the common viewpoint that they should be slowplayed, but Negreanu argued just the opposite: play them fast. He stated that the majority of the time good players if they suspect a monster are wary of a slow play. By playing the monster fast, however, he argues that the player is representing either a semi-bluff or a lesser hand.

Food for thought. Not sure if I could play quads fast. :)

[eldaec]

I will also offer an interesting tidbit gleaned from one of my good friends at work at a table with Daniel Negreanu. She was in a MTT final table with him (Airing in January on The Travel Channel -- cool to see her on a final table on TV!) and they began to talk about hands that more or less cripple the deck. She offered up the common viewpoint that they should be slowplayed, but Negreanu argued just the opposite: play them fast. He stated that the majority of the time good players if they suspect a monster are wary of a slow play. By playing the monster fast, however, he argues that the player is representing either a semi-bluff or a lesser hand.

This is entirely about reading your table.

Shit players will ignore you and call anything if they have a pair or above - so you play fast.
Slightly better players will spot if you go on the attack when a potential monster flops - so you play slow.
Good players will try to spot your pattern - so you mix it up a bit, and have to second guess them.


And if you spot people are always folding to slow or fast play, nothing stops you slow or fast playing a couple of 72o hands.

[WayAbvPar]

Agreed- very table dependent.

Sklansky argues the opposite. He says that if you play with people who want to chase you down with 3-1 draws all the time, you will inevitably get chased down and lose your stack.

I disagree. If they are drawing without the odds from the pot (or implied odds in your stack), they are in violation of the fundamental theorem of poker. You will lose a lot of pots when people draw with bad odds and still suck out. However, the pots you win when they draw and miss more than make up for the losses suffered in the long run.

[cmlancas]

But what if you know that they will chase every time and that they aren't playing by the fundamental theorem of poker?


Welcome to my local cardroom, sir.

[eldaec]

But what if you know that they will chase every time and that they aren't playing by the fundamental theorem of poker?


Welcome to my local cardroom, sir.

You thank the Lord.

[cmlancas]

Thank the lord for what? You can't play with a normal bankroll because you have to expect to take $500 swings every night. It's not so unheard of to get sucked out on that much.


It's unbelievably frustrating. I posted a little while back detailing the ridiculous chances people take against you. If you think you can beat the tables, the pickings are wide open down here.

[WayAbvPar]

But what if you know that they will chase every time and that they aren't playing by the fundamental theorem of poker?


Welcome to my local cardroom, sir.

You thank the Lord.

Yep. It is frustrating as hell when they draw out on you, but in the long run you will absolutely destroy them if you 'play your cards right'  :-D. In no fold 'em hold 'em games, big pocket pairs, while still great hands, lose value since so many of the pots will be multiway. You need to adjust your game accordingly- play them aggressively early but keep an eye out for ways you can be beat (usually it is some donkey who called 2 cold with K7 and flopped two pair) . Play more suited connectors and the like and look to flop big hands or big draws. Bluff much less often, but value bet your decent but not great hands more often. Most of all, stay patient, because variance is a stone cold bitch.

[Margalis]

The Negreanu advice makes sense for NL. Everything you do is dependent on your table and opponents.

For example, a lot of people will push all-in with AK to commit themselves to a coin-flip pre-flop. This means that if your opponent is willing to commit to a coin flip and they see you push all-in they might call. What if instead of pushing all-in you put in just a raise? Now your opponent might say "well people push with AK so he probably doesn't have that - maybe he has a real monster" and folds his 99. Or what if you push with AA? He might say "well he probably has AK so my 99 is ok" and call.

A key against good players is to make your legit hands, bluffs and semi-bluffs all look the same. Another key is to understand how your play has looked to other players and adjust accordingly.

For example I sat down at a table once and got hit with the deck. I ended up winning my first 4 or 5 pots with aggressive betting, and my worst hand was maybe AJ. Even though I was playing normally I realized that everyone at the table thought I was a maniac betting anything. So from then on I didn't bluff at all (knowing people were "catching on" to my aggressive play) but I did bet heavily with huge hands and got calls out of that.

[cmlancas]

I just thought it was amazing that she got to play with Negreanu and Brunson and the like. Talk about starstruck.

[Khaldun]

A lot of this is definitely about your table. I agree that if it's "no fold 'em hold 'em", I get more cautious--no point in routinely risking all the stack against every fucking possible random draw in the deck. Some kinds of play are dependent on getting a read, and you can't get a read against a guy who will call anything and who has money to burn.

[Abagadro]

You can't seriously be arguing that you don't want people to make calls on draws when their pot odds don't justify the call. That's like bizzaro poker if you actively don't want to play with these people or have them making such calls.  Getting such calls is the entire raison d'etre of poker and the only way to make money playing. You have flipped Sklansky on his head. If you are so paranoid about losing your stack on a suck-out, you are playing at too high of monetary level with respect to your bankroll.

[Stephen Zepp]

You can't seriously be arguing that you don't want people to make calls on draws when their pot odds don't justify the call. That's like bizzaro poker if you actively don't want to play with these people or have them making such calls.  Getting such calls is the entire raison d'etre of poker and the only way to make money playing. You have flipped Sklansky on his head. If you are so paranoid about losing your stack on a suck-out, you are playing at too high of monetary level with respect to your bankroll.

It sounds as if to me at least he's looking at too short a time interval to apply Slansky--sure, in any one particular night you risk losing the bankroll for that night, but over (long periods of) time you want to do as Ab says.

[cmlancas]

Yes, I can argue that.

I choose, at my local cardroom, not to push all-in if I think a guy is going to try and run me down with a draw. I'd rather just make bets that don't give him pot odds. Is that so wrong?


I don't think I have "flipped Sklansky on his head" at all. I think I'm just interpreting it differently.

[Margalis]

Are we talking cash games or tournaments?

In a cash game even if your edge is 51% vs 49% you want to do that, +EV is +EV. In a tournament it often makes sense not to do that. Phil Hellmuth and Negreanu are both successful making small bets that give their opponents pot-odds to call.

It depends on a bunch of factors. In a tournament if you lose your bankroll you are out. If you get into 10 all-ins you *will* lose one, and even if they were individually +EV you will go broke. The better the player you are, the more you want to lower your variance even if it means lowering your EV a bit.

A lot of people are familiar with the strategy for playing games like blackjack: bet, if you lose bet twice as much, repeat. You always make your money back eventually. People approach tournaments with the opposite strategy - bet, if you win bet twice as much, repeat until you inevitably go broke.

In a cash game I'll push in on any edge. In a tournament that isn't my strategy unless I'm one of the worse players at the table.

[Abagadro]

I choose, at my local cardroom, not to push all-in if I think a guy is going to try and run me down with a draw. I'd rather just make bets that don't give him pot odds. Is that so wrong?

In a word. Yes.  Because many times "bets that don't give him pot odds" is pushing and you need to be prepared to do that.

What you are doing is interpreting losing your stack as ruin (as in Risk of Ruin). It is always better to reduce your risk of ruin by giving up small marginal +EV to reduce the likelihood of ruin. No one argues that. That is what Margalis is talking about. In a tournament, losing your stack is ruin. You are out of the tournament. In a cash game, going to the felt should NEVER be ruin. If it is, you are playing way out of whack with your bankroll. You are playing with scared money and it will be seriously to your detriment. What Sklansky is talking about is not making OVER bets to the pot in excess of the amount necessary to create bad odds for your opponent. If there is a 20 dollar pot and someone is on an inside straight draw, you don't need to push 200 dollars into the pot. Sure, you would make it a 1.1-1 call and that would be stupid for anyone to call. But you can accomplish the same thing by making a 10 dollar bet and having him calling 3-1 and drawing 11-1. This is an extreme example, but could apply in lots of small-pot circumstances. No one is advocating pushing in those circumstances just because it will give them REALLY bad odds to call you. Just getting bad odds is sufficient.  This was the original poster of this issue's mistake. He pushed in well over 5-8 times the pot (tough to tell because stack size wasn't mentioned) when it was unnecessary.  Maybe that is what you are talking about and the way you phrased it means we are misinterpreting things.

What you seem to be advocating is that if a betting situation REQUIRES you to push in order to get someone out of whack when they are drawing 3-1 that you won't do it because you know they will call (even though it is a bad call for them) and you don't want to go to the felt.  That is seriously wrong from a poker perspective because you are essentially letting your opponents play correctly for fear of loosing your stack (which should not be ruin if you are managing your bankroll properly). So say a pot gets up to 100 bucks and you have 200 left behind. Your opponent has 1000 dollars. You flop TP/TK and he flops an open ended straight draw (and lets pretend you know this with certainty for the sake of illustration) with cards that won't counterfeit your TP.  He is therefore drawing 2.17-1. If you want to not give him proper odds to call you, you  need to push here. You will present him with a situation where he is calling 1.5-1, but laying 2.17-1. Nearly any other bet allows him to properly call. A 50 dollar bet gives him an overlay. A 100 bet not only gives him basically even odds, but likely cripples you and 95% of the time you will be raised your last 100 bucks in anyways and you will then have a shitty decision to make. The combination of fold equity (as even when you "know" someone will call, there is always the very real chance they will fold), but the fact that you are inducing a mistake, makes this a real no brainer.

If you can't make that push, you shouldn't be playing NL cash games. You are giving up too much. In tournaments it is a completely different calculus as mentioned because the fold equity goes up and the risk of ruin becomes a bigger factor.