New and Improved Poker thread

[Bunk]

Hmm, neat idea, but not overly accurate. Only shows me having played 2 SnGs at Party Poker, and says I lost them both. Considering I've made money on two of the last three I played, and have at least a dozen played there, I'd say the tracker needs work.

Had our company Christmas party on the weekend at the local casino. Arranged for a private table for some of us. Making money off of your co-workers isn't hard when you're the only sober one. I almost felt bad. Almost.

[El Gallo]

I hadn't played in a very long time but stopped by the local reservation casino up by la gallina's parents' place over thanksgiving. Since I was so rusty and all they had were no limit games, I played basic push/fold "ed miller/kill phil" style.  Folded hands for almost an hour straight, went all in (with KK) and got 3 callers, so there are still plenty of dumbasses out there (at least at small limits in western new york).  Boring as hell to play that way though. I miss 1999 when all I needed was lee jones and a very half-assed understanding of implied odds to do pretty well at real casinos. I really hate that no-limit has taken over the world. When I was last in LV a year ago it was hard to find a fun loose/passive limit table except at the very lowest limits (most limit tables seemed to be rock gardens full of old-timers), and I'm sure it is worse now.

[WayAbvPar]

I agree. The NL craze is really annoying me. It takes a lot of the fish with deep pockets away from the limit games. The fish also lose their money MUCH faster, so they aren't around to make the games better. Overall very bad for the poker scene imo.

[cmlancas]

I think my Sharkscope is off too. I have written down that I've won 3, seconded 2, and lost 6. I'm not sure how this works. :o

[Abagadro]

Boring as hell to play that way though.

Ding! I hate NL ring games and they have become a cancer on B&M poker rooms.

[Khaldun]

You guys are savvy to the actual playing of poker in the world in a way that I am not--the best I can do is get a day of B&M playing at the Borgata or LV once or twice a year, and then some online play.

I've mostly played at Poker Stars over the last few years, small stakes SnG and NL ring games for money, and freerolls/FPP stuff of various kinds. I've just been feeling the last couple of months unnerved by some of the patterns I feel like I'm seeing. Not even stuff that involves me losing directly, but watching some of the hands come down. I was playing a regular cash tourney, not turbo rounds, the other day and I was at a table with one player for a long time. In about 90 minutes, I watched him get four four-card straights where he went all-in with a face card and low kicker against high pockets (99 and up), all of those straights made on the low card. He went all-in with low pockets against high pockets three times and made trips all three times. He went all-in on dominated face cards (AQ against AK, KJ against KQ) and drew the underpair on the turn first time, river second time. Needless to say, he was the top stack in the tournament when I went out (to another player, on a JJ v. QQ, with me holding JJ).

Sure, it can happen: anything can happen if you see enough hands quickly enough. I've always thought that the people who say that the big sites are rigged are tinfoil hat brigades who don't understand probability (e.g., they think that AA is an automatic win rather than a probable win, and think it's a conspiracy any time they lose with it), who don't understand that online poker is faster and therefore more odd hands will be seen, who don't understand that more people in low-stakes online tournaments will pay to go to the river and therefore increase the number of suckouts seen, and so on.

But lately I've just been getting this corrosive sense that I'm seeing too much shit that I shouldn't be seeing at a frequency that shouldn't be. It doesn't even have to be rigging: it could just be a lousy shuffling algorithim. Tell me that it's just a "keys under the streetlight" thing, a pattern noticed because I'm looking for it...

[WayAbvPar]

It is human nature to only remember the 'interesting' hands. Because you see so many more hands online (especially if you play more than one table at a time), you WILL see more low probability scenarios play out than you would playing live for the same amount of time. I have taken more than my share of ridiculously bad beats at PokerStars (especially lately...grrrrr), but of all the online sites, I would put my trust in them before anyone else.

The major problem with online games atm is that the UIGEA and state laws are severely cutting down the number of players who can/will play online. When you do that, only the ones who REALLY want to play will play. Passionate players are more likely to be at least competent, so (at least for me), the profit margin for playing online has fallen off a cliff.

Lee Rousso is running for governor of Washington, and Barney Frank (among others) is working to repeal parts of the UIGEA to allow for online poker. Hopefully we will get a better game in the next few years.

[Morat20]

But lately I've just been getting this corrosive sense that I'm seeing too much shit that I shouldn't be seeing at a frequency that shouldn't be. It doesn't even have to be rigging: it could just be a lousy shuffling algorithim. Tell me that it's just a "keys under the streetlight" thing, a pattern noticed because I'm looking for it...

I read through Poker Star's description of their shuffling algorithm -- assuming what they've stated is true, they've done an excellent job there. (I had a burning professional need for truly random numbers at the time, but my boss drew the line at buying hardware to turn thermal noise in the case into random seeds....ass!).

WayAbvPar's probably right -- you remember the interesting stuff. If it bugs you, keep track of it all -- boring and interesting. There's enough math geeks floating around the net to analyze it. :)

[Murgos]

IF they legalize gambling online poker and set up some oversight over the operations, i.e. some transparency on algorithms and some rules about certifying operations with regular reviews by the gambling commissions the whole thing would feel a lot more secure.

There is no reason they couldn't keep two people from the same IP block playing at the same table or not allow connections through known, open proxies as well as other anti-collusion efforts.

At the moment I can think of half a dozen different ways to cheat at online poker and that keeps me away.

[Margalis]

I'm much more concerned about collusion. Since you don't play against the house there really isn't much reason to stack the deck. But I see plenty of chip-dumping in tournaments and things like that.

[Abagadro]

So I decide to finally sit down and play some of that god forsaken NL cash game because the other game is just lame now. Heh, ran it over for 400 bucks in only about an hour and a half of playing.  Was playing 1/2 blind no limit and it played like low limit with 5-6 seeing the flop even after raises of 5BB. Was glorious.  I'll probably have the misfortune of now playing in 10 straight games of boring-ass NL just to make up for it.

[LK]

Thank you, F13.  You have given me a winning poker face.

[LK]

I wonder if the portrait you pick determines the type of hands you'll get.

Flop Top Pair with Flush Draw, go All In, Second Best Pair Calls, gets his set? 

All In with AK Preflop, 7 2 suited calls, manages a straight? 

[Abagadro]

All In with AK Preflop

I don't claim to be an expert cash NL player, but in my mind, this is a mistake in most cash-game circumstances. Much of the proper strategy in such games is manipulating pot odds post-flop and you just deprive yourself of the ability to do that with a hand that is either a big dog (to AA KK), a coin-flip (to underpairs) or at best a 60-40 favorite (against suited underconnectors). I don't think you will get many calls from hands you dominate like AQ or AJ to make the play worth it.

EDIT: I should say that if there is a chunk of money in pre-flop before it gets to you and you have a decent level of fold equity, the play would be more worthwhile but still marginal.

[LK]

It was a play money tournament with a ridiculously low buy-in by Play Money standards.  I wouldn't go all-in, ever, with AK pre-flop unless I was short-stacked.  Doubly so in a cash game.

[WayAbvPar]

First hand of a 20000 person tournament over the weekend- I am in late position with AA. Early position raises to 90, mid position reraises to 300. I make a gargantuan reraise to 3000 (my whole stack), hoping to make it look like a steal. Apparently it worked, since both of them called and I tripled up on the first hand. Got AA 5 hands later and dropped 3k of it back when someone called a preflop raise, a 2/3 pot-sized bet on the flop, and a pot sized bet on the turn with T7 and made a runner runner straight.  Donkeys give, and they take away.

[cmlancas]

I have a proposition for some of us on this site. I'm sure most of you play online somewhere out there -- perhaps you buy-in, perhaps you just play freerolls. I had an idea as I was rifling through the freerolls available to me today: Would anyone be interested in attempting to build a bankroll with me (almost like a club)?



The reason why I want someone to do this with me is because I have the awful problem of managing a bankroll, but I play good poker. Last time I did this, I made it up to around $15.00 on UB, but my tilts usually leave me penniless and angry at myself for busting a bankroll I've worked for months to up from a small amount (say .50).


Any takers?

[WayAbvPar]

You could do a microstakes version of the Open Internet Challenge. Good way to build discipline and bankroll.

[cmlancas]

Yes. I'm looking to do something like that, but I need people to keep me honest. "Honor bound" doesn't work with me. I've taken two freeroll bankrolls to $35 and $15 respectively, but I need some sort of accountability.

That's what I was looking for more or less with my post. 

[WayAbvPar]

You can report to us here weekly or something. Good poker is all about self-discipline. Until you learn it, you can have all talent and luck in the world, but you will eventually go broke if you can't learn to play within your limits and manage your bankroll.

I have a tiny bankroll (like $140) left on Pokerstars. I am going to try a version of the OIC playing baby NL games (I will have to look at the games available to decide where I will start). The limit games have really become rock gardens, so the only way to make any money is to either play 24 tables like a robot, or learn NL. Or play SnGs and tournaments, which I do as well.

[Abagadro]

I don't play online any more since it became such a hassle.

[LK]

I have AA preflop, big raise, 97 suited calls, flops a set.

Why would 97 suited call against a big raise???  And flop a SET?!  What's the statistical odds of that happening?

[cmlancas]

First, what's his stack, how's he been playing, did you meet a big reraise on the flop after (I assume) your continuation bet?

[Margalis]

Why would 97 suited call against a big raise??? 

Thinks he can move you off the flop. Or is an idiot. Probably the latter.

And flop a SET?!  What's the statistical odds of that happening?

AA is going to 20% of the time to that.

But see, here's the thing. You WANT to play against people who call big raises with 97. Yes, it sucks to lose to them but most of the time you'll win and make money. Never complain that an idiot got lucky, because you want idiots to play like idiots.

[Abagadro]

If you are again talking about play money, the negative result is irrelevant so why not just push with 97.  Really, trying to analyze play money games is pointless. 

To answer your question, the odds of flopping trips with 2 unpaired cards is 73.2 to 1.

[UD_Delt]

Sort of poker related so it goes here...

For those of you who don't normally read 2+2 please bask in the glory of all that is Sklansky:
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=141276


This has to be one of the best trolls I have ever read.

[WayAbvPar]

LOL. Sklansky has been on a tear in NVG the past few days, it appears.


In other poker news, I have become addicted to HORSE. It is nearly unfathomable how bad players are in the lowball portions, especially Razz. I have played 2 very low limit tournies this week and made the final table on both, with probably 70% of my chips coming from Razz. First tourney I finished 8th out of 448. A couple of days later, I finished 2nd out of 504.

 Last hand was brutal too- we were playing 0/8. I was dealt AK67, with the AK suited. Not a great hand by any stretch, but decent for heads up.
Flop was 2 5 A rainbow. I had top pair and a made 7 for low. I decided to make my stand, and we eventually get all the money in (he outchipped me about 2/1 at this point). He turns over 34xx, and I am drawing nearly dead. Turn and river don't help, and I lose both pots to the dreaded wheel.

HORSE is a lot of fun. Most people have a clue how to play Hold Em, so if you can just keep even there and take advantage of your big hands you will do fine. Omaha Hi/Lo split (0/8) is also gaining popularity, but you will still some unbelievably bad play (had a guy raise from UTG with 6789 3 suited, for instance). Razz is where I make the lion's share of my money. I don't do quite as well in strictly Razz tourneys, since they will be mostly filled with people who actually know how to play. Stud I just try to play tight and take advantage when the opportunity arises; I tend to fold my way through most of the segment. Stud Hi/Lo (Stud-Eight) I really dislike for some reason. I always seem to get mediocre to bad hands, and end up playing more hands than I should after playing so tight in regular Stud.

[Margalis]

I can't figure out what that Sklansky post is even about.

I've always disliked Sklansky anyway.

Edit: I love stud 8.

[Abagadro]

I haven't been active at 2+2 for years, but that shit is just awesome.  Half-blind inbreds, blackmail, poker, extortion, death threats, vibrators, panty shots, threesomes.  Holly crap.

JERRY! JERRY!

[schild]

What.

No, seriously.

What.

Why would anyone ever ever post there with an administrator like that?

Christ, it's as if Hyu himself were running a forum and he was the child of blogger.com and myspace.

[Abagadro]

Why would anyone ever ever post there with an administrator like that?

It's basically the top poker forum there is (or at least used to be). Sklansky isn't really an admin there. He writes books and probably co-owns the 2+2 company, but everyone knows he is a creepy-goofball-loon and Malmuth basically runs the show.

[UD_Delt]

Well I am back from my first Vegas trip this year. Stayed at Hooters (shithole) for one night, the MGM (nice) for 3 nights, and the Trop (nice but dated) for 3 nights.

Played poker exclusively at the MGM. Other that one very unsuccessful $65 tourney I played NL $1/$2 for about 30-35 hours during the trip. It would have been more but I threw my back out Friday night and wasted two days laying on the floor of the MGM flat on my back.

Total for the trip: +$150 after all expenses.

Poker winnings: +$1200.

NL $1/$2 is absolutely delicious.

Just one hand that I'll recount as it was over a $600 pot.

I'd been playing an afternoon session for a few hours already and had about $400 in front of me. A complete lagtard sits down and proceeds to either raise or play every single hand for about 30-45 minutes and is actually pulling in more than he's losing. He's up to somewhere around $300.

I'm on the button (in seat 2) and lagtard is in middle position at the other corner (seat 7). Lagtard raises to $12, one caller between, I look down at KK. I pop it to $25, lagtard calls, other guy folds. Heads up to the flop.

Flop: Js2s2x

Lagtard Checks, I bet $50 to attempt to either push him off the flush draw or get paid by his J if he has one. Watching him play if he has a J we might be getting it all in here.

Lagtard just calls. Ok, so he's got the flush draw.

Turn is a blank.

Lagtard checks, I make the pussy play and check behind since I know he's calling any bet I make and I fear the flush in an already $150+ pot. Yeah I play weak-tight...

River is the beautiful Ks.

Lagtard insta-bets $100. I think for a sec and reraise all in. He calls and flips up 8s9s for the non-nut flush. I show the boat and rake down a huge pot and say goodbye to captain over-aggressive.

I cashed out a little over $700 a bit later.


Edit: I'm now very much looking forward to trip #2 in May. Although it's only a 3 nighter and for a bachelor party so not sure how much (siober) play time I'll get.

[WayAbvPar]

MGM is a good room for low limit stuff. I just wish they would get rid of the marble at the edge of the tables. That is really annoying. A lot of people complain about the noise since it is open to the casino, but that is part of what I love about it. It is kind of fun to drag a big pot in front of a bunch of railbirds  I also just LOVE the energy of a casino floor.

I am trying to learn NL cash by playing NL25 and a bit of NL50 on Pokerstars. My RL bankroll isn't in a place where I feel comfortable playing 2/5 NL (actually spread limit up to $500 max bet) at my normal casino, so this is all I can do atm. I am pretty sure the online games play a hell of a lot tougher than the live games do anyway, so it will be good practice.

Lagtard raises to $12, one caller between, I look down at KK. I pop it to $25

Why such a small raise? With a player like that, I am more inclined to make a big overbet to make it look like I am trying to steal. He will see this as a threat to his manhood and drastically overplay his hand so I can play for his whole stack.

Lagtard checks, I make the pussy play and check behind since I know he's calling any bet I make and I fear the flush in an already $150+ pot. Yeah I play weak-tight...

Letting him draw for free is criminal here imo.

[LK]

Still, it sucks major balls and can put you on tilt if you make the statistically right call and watch them make that out they so desperately needed.  As much as I try to be  when that happens, I'm usually  .

You're giving me ideas for a Vegas trip though.

[UD_Delt]

Lagtard raises to $12, one caller between, I look down at KK. I pop it to $25

Why such a small raise? With a player like that, I am more inclined to make a big overbet to make it look like I am trying to steal. He will see this as a threat to his manhood and drastically overplay his hand so I can play for his whole stack.

Lagtard checks, I make the pussy play and check behind since I know he's calling any bet I make and I fear the flush in an already $150+ pot. Yeah I play weak-tight...

Letting him draw for free is criminal here imo.

The small raise was because of the table texture. Oddly enough the 6x initial raise was standard and would still get 3-4 callers but often any reraise would get everyone to fold immediately, even Mr. laggy. I wanted action from at least one of the two hence the min-raise.

And yes, the free draw was absolutely horrible. I still have a bit of a disconnect when I'm playing live poker between what my brain says to do and what my hands actually end up doing. It took me until probably the 3rd or 4th session before I was able to disconnect the real dollar value from the chips themselves and start making proper bet sizes without regard to real world value. At that point in time though it would have been difficult for me to make a $100ish bet knowing there was a real chance of me losing it even though I know that would have been the proper play.