Coronavirus / COVID-19

[schild]

This thread is fit for public consumption.

[Reg]

Edit: have some class, reg, goddamn

Oh sure Schild. I'll try to remember that in the future.

[Trippy]

It was my bad for forgetting Politics is not visible to guests. I.e. what happens in Politics, stays in Politics.

[amiable]

Can we keep the non public consumption thread open to provide information we do not want to be publicly consumed?

[schild]

Sure.

[Chimpy]

NCAA March Madness is going to be done March Basho style - just cameras for TV allowed to spectate.

[Trippy]

"Limited family attendance" will be allowed (for now) so the stands won't be completely empty:

I have made the decision to conduct our upcoming championship events, including the Division I men’s and women’s basketball tournaments, with only essential staff and limited family attendance.

https://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball-men/article/2020-03-11/ncaa-president-mark-emmert-releases-statement-limiting

[Trippy]

NBA season suspended after tonight's games:

https://twitter.com/NBA/status/1237917831506857989

[Khaldun]

Tom Hanks and Rita Wilson confirmed as having coronavirus in Australia.

[Tale]

Tom Hanks and Rita Wilson confirmed as having coronavirus in Australia.

We are replicating this like some kind of....

P.S. Trump's address has sent US stock market futures down another 4%.

[Trippy]

Yeah this isn't going to work if people continue to post general stuff to the other thread.

[schild]

Lol

[Tale]

Italy is reporting 12,462 infections.
Italy is reporting 827 deaths.

South Korea is reporting 7,755 infections.
South Korea is reporting 60 deaths.

Why does Italy seemingly have a 6.6% death rate?

[Hawkbit]

I don’t have sources but apparently the Jazz player was mocking the virus a few days ago, and licking all the microphones during the post game presser.

Edit: not the funny thread, apologies.

[Chimpy]

Not licking, he just rubbed them all as he stood up.

[Tale]

Australia is now having a Tom Hanks crisis.

He recently spent the morning on a TV breakfast show, so that TV network just lost all their morning cast and crew to quarantine. The cast and crew of the movie he's been working on are also quarantined. The premier (governor) of the state he's been living in has issued an urgent warning that anyone who's had contact with Tom Hanks needs to self-isolate. Fans who've got autographs, etc etc. Mr nice guy is the perfect virus spreader.

Edit: Turns out he was in my city (Sydney) a few days ago, doing all the tourist hot-spots like Bondi Beach. Meanwhile she performed (singing) at the Sydney Opera House and went on a harbour cruise. Fuck you, Hankses.

Also neither of them would have qualified for testing in the USA.... WHICH BY THE WAY IS PROBABLY WHERE THEY CAUGHT CORONAVIRUS: "the couple returned [to Australia] from a brief trip to the US on March 5"

[schild]

Italy is reporting 12,462 infections.
Italy is reporting 827 deaths.

South Korea is reporting 7,755 infections.
South Korea is reporting 60 deaths.

Why does Italy seemingly have a 6.6% death rate?

Italy's average age is dumb high.

Also, I'd check smoking rates among the older.

[Brolan]

CBS late night shows are going on with no audiences starting next week.  I also noticed Colbert did not do his running high five with the audience either.

[Trippy]

Italy is reporting 12,462 infections.
Italy is reporting 827 deaths.

South Korea is reporting 7,755 infections.
South Korea is reporting 60 deaths.

Why does Italy seemingly have a 6.6% death rate?

Italy's average age is dumb high.

Also, I'd check smoking rates among the older.

Italy does have the oldest population in Europe (depending on how you measure) but it's not, like, outlier high like Japan is. However Italy has a much higher % of older people infected compared to Korea with 76.6% of their cases being 51 or older and 39.2% being 70 or older. In contrast Korea's numbers are 40.2% 50 or older and only 9% 70 or older.

South Koreans smoke more than Italians too.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1103023/coronavirus-cases-distribution-by-age-group-italy/
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1102730/south-korea-coronavirus-cases-by-age/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_cigarette_consumption_per_capita
http://gamapserver.who.int/gho/interactive_charts/tobacco/use/atlas.html

[Sir T]

People going through the new deceleration have noticed a few things.

(a) This isn't a blanket ban on Europe. It omits 2 countries where there are 3 Trump properties, namely the UK and Ireland. Both of whom have Covid-19 infections.

(b) There's nothing in the deceleration about 30 days. This is indefinite till the Prez orders it over. Which means he could leave it there till next year or cancel it tomorrow.

(c) It does not ban all travel. It basically halts all Visas. If you are a US citizen or a spouse of one etc, come on in.

Text of the deceleration

[Jeff Kelly]

The two main reasons why the mortality rate in Italy is high:

The way they treated it in the beginning was “just a flu” and a lot of the elderly got exposed through kids, grandkids and social interactions.

It is centred in one small area that doesn’t have the facilities to handle such an epidemic and due to crisis triage measures and limited resources a lot of people die due to lack of treatment. They simple don’t have enough ICU beds,ventilators and oxygen supply to treat everyone and the staff is exhausted and overworked.

That’s the difference between Italy where it’s basically 12,000 cases in an area the size of New York City and e.g. Germany where it’s 1900 cases spread out over the whole country with no city having more than like a few dozen cases.

[Jeff Kelly]

Also there are allegedly two different Covid strains out there now. A more aggressive one with higher mortality rate and a less aggressive one that causes milder symptoms.

Areas hit by the original outbreak have the more aggressive one while the second wave of infections seem to have more cases of the milder variant.

[Tale]

Holy shit. From my parents who are visiting a town a few hours north. Identifying details removed. I last saw them on Saturday.

We are fine. Unfortunately we have been in contact with someone with Corona virus on Monday morning at [activity] and were not advised until 30 minutes ago. The others in the group just heard today too. [Name] let the health authorities know and I now have the email.  Isolation until [date] March. We are not sure whether to go home or not. I would like to. Anyway no signs of it yet, but we have been in contact with lots of people at the supermarket and [name] and [name] and more!

Their doctor has summoned them home and will swab them in his car park.

[Sir T]

In addition, Earth is the only planet in the solar system that carries the risk of getting mauled by a bear.

[Jeff Kelly]

We can’t say for certain that there aren’t any space bears on Titan.

[Goumindong]

Italy is reporting 12,462 infections.
Italy is reporting 827 deaths.

South Korea is reporting 7,755 infections.
South Korea is reporting 60 deaths.

Why does Italy seemingly have a 6.6% death rate?

Italy's average age is dumb high.

Also, I'd check smoking rates among the older.

The answer is that Italy has 3.6 beds per 100,000 people and did not do significant testing and screening. SK has like 25 beds per 100k and agressively screened people. This means that SK caught a lot more cases and prevented spread to vulnerable populations

While Italy is out of respirators and is letting everyone over 65 take their chances without effective treatment.

[Jeff Kelly]

You can’t compare those numbers because the accounting of what is or isn’t considered an ICU bed varies depending on the country and the criteria they use. There’s no generally accepted set of criteria e.g the US and SK definitions of what an ICU bed means differ.

[Jeff Kelly]

“ Some countries, such as the United Kingdom, have a clear definition, describing Level 3 care (ICU-level care) as patients receiving advanced respiratory support alone, or having a minimum of two organs supported. Many countries do not seem to have any definitions. In the United States, there are no standard definitions, but a proposed system of categorization broadly defined the highest level of care as including “sophisticated equipment, specialized nurses, and physicians with critical care training””

https://accessanesthesiology.mhmedical.com/content.aspx?bookid=1944&sectionid=143521546

Italy only counts level 3 beds with ventilators as ICU

[amiable]

Italy is reporting 12,462 infections.
Italy is reporting 827 deaths.

South Korea is reporting 7,755 infections.
South Korea is reporting 60 deaths.

Why does Italy seemingly have a 6.6% death rate?

Italy's average age is dumb high.

Also, I'd check smoking rates among the older.

The answer is that Italy has 3.6 beds per 100,000 people and did not do significant testing and screening. SK has like 25 beds per 100k and agressively screened people. This means that SK caught a lot more cases and prevented spread to vulnerable populations

While Italy is out of respirators and is letting everyone over 65 take their chances without effective treatment.

Basically this, Italy let the number of cases spiral out of control without effective mechanisms to slow the spread and the hospital system got completely overwhelmed.  As a result hospitals were forced to triage and basically told anyone over 65 or with a pre-existing condition they are on their own.  That's why you also see such high mortality in Iran.  there is a significant subset of the infected population that will require hospitalization and respirators. If you overrun the system mortality rates spike.  This is why there is this desperate push in the epidemiological community to get folks to socially distance in the US, because we are basically 10-20 days away from this right now.

In a week or 2 we should start seeing waves of bilateral interstitial pneumonia and sepsis at hospitals around the country.

The timing is based on the incubation period (up to 2-3 weeks) and time from onset of cough to very serious symptoms (about 8-10 days). People will seem to do alright and then just crash.

To keep the number of patients from overwhelming our medical system, we need to take drastic measures, like stop congregating in crowds and stay home if you can. If you have flu-like symptoms, self-isolate or wear a mask.

Those of you in the medical field need to prepare. Learn what to look for and how to treat it. Prepare your resources now. And most definitely learn how to don and doff PPE correctly and comfortably.

[01101010]

Basically this, Italy let the number of cases spiral out of control without effective mechanisms to slow the spread and the hospital system got completely overwhelmed.  As a result hospitals were forced to triage and basically told anyone over 65 or with a pre-existing condition they are on their own.  That's why you also see such high mortality in Iran.  there is a significant subset of the infected population that will require hospitalization and respirators. If you overrun the system mortality rates spike.  This is why there is this desperate push in the epidemiological community to get folks to socially distance in the US, because we are basically 10-20 days away from this right now.

In a week or 2 we should start seeing waves of bilateral interstitial pneumonia and sepsis at hospitals around the country.

The timing is based on the incubation period (up to 2-3 weeks) and time from onset of cough to very serious symptoms (about 8-10 days). People will seem to do alright and then just crash.

To keep the number of patients from overwhelming our medical system, we need to take drastic measures, like stop congregating in crowds and stay home if you can. If you have flu-like symptoms, self-isolate or wear a mask.

Those of you in the medical field need to prepare. Learn what to look for and how to treat it. Prepare your resources now. And most definitely learn how to don and doff PPE correctly and comfortably.

Assuming you have access to the correct PPE and the supplies are there to deal with the coming wave.   

[Yegolev]

In this thread, I learned Tom hanks is married to Wilson.

[Jeff Kelly]

Since 1988

[Yegolev]

Since 1988

I checked wikipedia and you are correct.

Italy's average age is dumb high.

Also, I'd check smoking rates among the older.

This is probably relevant. People still smoke cigs in Europe. Wife asked why no one was giving a breakdown of demographics of the deceased and I figure it's simple privacy issues. Also relatively small samples.

Since I don't know which groups got it, I can speculate it is a set of unhealthy people or similar and not evenly spread around. By the time we know anything solid, it probably won't matter.

Of course, I live under a rock so maybe we do have demographical breakdowns of some of the fatalities.

[Comstar]

Italy has a high death rate because they acted too late to contain it. The medical system is overwhelmed and collapsed under the weight.

The US is 10 days behind Italy.

Good luck :(

[Sky]

Yeah, people bagging on Italy here in the US bugs me, because they're responding better than we are. At least here in NY we have some action at the state level because Cuomo is a bit nuts (generally in a good way). Also, another factor for Italy is the huge tourist economy, lots of movement from foreigners who both concentrate at tourist sites and move throughout the country. There has been some interesting stuff on reddit from inside Italy. Another factor in Italy's high reporting is that they are now reporting more accurately, unlike the ostrich nations.

The fiancee and I are pretty upset that the library response has been tepid at best. The administration is treating it like the flu, and our maintenance guy (in charge of disinfection and coming up with ideas for implementing) is a hardcore Trumpette. He thinks the whole thing is a liberal scam. So....we're getting ourselves ready to bury the fiancee's 87yr old mom this year (the fiancee lives with her mom, who is frail). So when I say pretty upset, I mean we are livid beyond belief and our funny bones re: the whole situation is nonexistent.



Left, lesions in red. Right, 3d image of lungs and trachea. Not fun even if you are not elderly and will recover from it. Source: https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/coronavirus-x-rays-show-terrifying-21672219