Who will rule the MMO market? **Betting ended January 2007**

[shiznitz]

5) raiding is the endgame

Not really fair to call that a part of a DIKU, since
1) There was no raiding in DIKU muds.
2) You can have raiding w/o the diku mechanics

I agree in a pure sense and that was why I put it last, but raiding has become a core part of modern DIKU-derived MMOGs so I included it. The good part a list is that it spurs debate about what should and should not be included which is what we want to happen. I only ever played on MUD, Carrion Fields, and I didn't get very far into it because EQ1 came out.

[Soukyan]

Wow... a lot of these comments remind me of forum comments when people started burning out on EQ1. Striking similarities. It's funny how much we change and yet, we don't.

It's not us that haven't changed, it's the games themselves. There isn't a whole fuckton of difference between EQ1 and WoW in terms of gameplay. It's EQ1 refined, and EQ1 was just DikuMUD with a 3d interface.

Good point. It's funny how much the games change and yet, they don't. ;)

But seriously, my name is Ian, and I was an MMOG-aholic.

[eldaec]

I don't think DIKUs are doomed to fail per se,

Everything is doomed to fail in the end, 'tis the circle of crap dikumuds.

But things that fail after taking $100+ off of 10 million people and only having costs of maybe half that, won't be giving their publisher any sleepless nights.

People often write as if MMOGs are grand projects intended to remain with us through the ages. They aren't.

[Venkman]

As one of those people who think MMOGs will stay with us through the ages, I'd like to justify that :)

I think we're living the evolutionary process between monitor/keyboard/controller RPGs and eventual mass-marketable VR. Someday there'll be some sort of VR-net, probably not in a form the Metaverse Roadmap people think, but not too different either. And one of the strong links will be between whatever emerges as the most popular form of immersive entertainment combined with various other techs.

If we were to jump to VR right now, it'd probably be in some DIKU form. But the tech for the masses just isn't there yet, so can't be wrapped in some marketable "replace your TV" even-fringe-friendly message. I don't know where it'll go, but do think a strong line will be connected back to this stage of the genre. Sorta like how MMOGs can be traced back through Doom, Ultima III and D&D.

That's one reason I give this genre a lot of slack room to mess up.

The other is the people.

[eldaec]

You're probably right that (on consoles at the very least) the boundaries between the OS, game lobbies, and game itself will continue to blur.

And I can see the experience moving towward to be a single player-identity that uses a consistent lobby structure to enter an ever changing range of games.

The games themselves will probably start to interact (unlock X in game Y by doing A in game B), and it could be argued that at that point they all become one collective 'game'. But the individual game experiences will still come and go, just as any other form of mass media 'art' does.

[Falconeer]

I think it's time to put on your bragging suit and your speculation glasses. Half of the titles we were predicting about failed the promised released dates (breaking news!) so we need "official" figures for just 3 games. As you can read on the updated opening post I put on what I think should be correct numbers for Lotro (250k), Vanguard (30k) and WoW (8,5m) but without actual numbers or "trustworthy fake ones" as Bruce's, I am open to your speculations to come up with better figures. Bragging will start just after that.

[Cheddar]

My numbers were pretty spot on- except I put 2008.  DOH.

[palmer_eldritch]

I wouldn't know where to start predicting numbers, but I reckon Football Manager Live will be up there with most of the games on this list (just read that as Soccer Manager Live if it bothers you:) )

It may not get the WoW burnouts, but it'll get large numbers of players who haven't played MMOs before. I realise the experience of The Sims Online shows that massively popular single player games don't always become massively popular MMOs, but all SI Games need to do is to replicate the SP game with players as the rival managers instead of AI, and they have a hit.

[Falconeer]

Palmer,

the thing was not about the best or more popular ones. It was just about predictions on 6 arbitrarily chosen titles. We didn't forget Tabula Rasa for example, just decided, over a year ago, to not bet on it.

[geldonyetich2]

2008 -

Warhammer Online: 0 subs, canceled because EA are douches.
Age of Conan: 200K subs.
Vanguard: 30K subs - I figure they're down to their core supporters right now.
Lord of the Rings Online: 250K subs - WoW refugees will probably match people who quit.
Pirates of the Burning Sea: 10K subs - Pirate games scare the sheeple.
World of Warcraft: 3M Subs - My same bet as last year, I'd probably already be this and lower if there were just an alternative for the burned out players to go to.

[Falconeer]

December 2007:

Warhammer Online - 50k
Age of Conan - 25k
Vanguard - 15k
LOTRO - 100k
Pirates of the Burning Sea - 10k
World of Warcraft - 3m

December 2008:

MMORPGs considered obsolete by general game development community, the remaining ones out or being made all considered to cater to small 'niche' markets only.

...

Doom Doom Doom!

Sorry Geldon. You lost your chance to predict for Xmas 2008 when you went with the quoted post and didn't fix it before the deadline. And now your chance to win nothing is gone forever.

[Cheddar]

Sorry Geldon. You lost your chance to predict for Xmas 2008 when you went with the quoted post and didn't fix it before the deadline. And now your chance to win nothing is gone forever.

GREATEST quote ever.  Hope you do not mind if I borrow it!

[geldonyetich2]

1) I didn't have an edit button.
2) Those are my "MMORPGs considered obsolete by the game development community" numbers. ;)

[Venkman]

Jeez. I bet six digits for Vanguard!?

Yea. I'm out, on that alone 

[geldonyetich2]

I think at one point I was expecting 100k on Vanguard, but haggled myself down when I saw the charts on some of the newer MMORPG releases.  These days, you usually need a major known brand name to get above 150k, and even then it's hard to keep them.

[Endie]

I think at one point I was expecting over 500k on Vanguard, but edited my posts when I changed my mind.  I then got my ability to edit taken away from me for that sort of thing.

I edited that to reflect what actually happened.  You don't need to thank me.

[CharlieMopps]

I think at one point I was expecting 100k on Vanguard, but haggled myself down when I saw the charts on some of the newer MMORPG releases.  These days, you usually need a major known brand name to get above 150k, and even then it's hard to keep them.

I absolutely despise your avatar.


Edit: Awsome... Adblock plus plugin for Firefox allowed me the ability to never see it again. Thank you Adblock plus =)

[geldonyetich2]

No, my edit button was gone long before it came time to make Vanguard predictions.  Really, whenever I edited my messages, it was either because:

A) I reread my message and decided that it wasn't conveying my thoughts clearly.  (Sometimes I'd do this dozens of times on the same message.)

B) I was being a snippy bastard, cooled down, and edited out the bas-tarded-ness.

I'm not sure where the impression came that I edit messages because I'm trying to underhandedly take back something I said.  I stand firmly by all the stupid things I say because I think that only arguing devil's advocate do you get to the core of a thing.  That's why certain people tend to resent me.

[Hoax]

That's why certain people tend to resent me.

 

[Falconeer]

Looks like no one is going to refute my figures for WoW, Vanguard and LotRO (oh is that so simple? Now I can see where Bruce took his numbers. I should probably put up a website and get a jpb in the industry).

Because of that I'm going to declare the winnarz:





----------------------------------------------------------
Vanguard: (Actual: 30k)

The winner is:
 
*HaemishM: 25k*


Runners up:

Andar: 50k
Comstar: 50k


------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Lord of the Rings Online: (Actual 250k)

The winner is:

*Evangolis: 220k*


Runners up:

Endie: 300k
Modern Angel: 300k
Lantyssa: 300k
Xuri: 300k
Trouble: 300k
HRose: 200k
Merusk: 200k
Falconeer: 200k
Stray: 200k
Angry.bob: 200k


-----------------------------------------------------------------------
World of Warcraft: (Actual: 9,3 M)

The winners are:

*Comstar: 9 millions*
*Riggswolfe: 9 millions*


Runners up:

WindUpAtheist: 10 millions
Simond: 10 millions
Trouble: 10 millions
Soln: 10 millions

That is all, for December 2007. See you next year.

Unless, of course, someone can come up with more realistic *actual* figures. I love to take awards back.

[Falconeer]

If these numbers are confirmed, I would like to point out that no matter how anyone (beside me  ) knew Vanguard would have been a trainwreck, it has been 10 times deadlier than expected. Wow.

[Simond]

Yeah, I can't believe that I overestimated Vanguard's subs. 

[Draegan]

Can I get on the awesome message board action for '08?

WOW - 9m
Vanguard - 45k
WAR - 220k  (If it releases in Q1/Early Q2)
AOC - 450k 
LOTRO - 245k

[schild]

Time for Falconeer to start a new thread.

[UnSub]

In the Activision / Vivendi merger thread, it was noted that WoW had 9.3 million players.

LOTRO analysts claimed it had 1m players based on the fact five million characters had been created and you can only have 5 (?) characters on an account. Ho ho ho.  250k seems a better estimate.

[Falconeer]

A new thread? Hello no! Predicting now for next december would be unfair to those who cast their predictions 12 months ago.

But we could play something different for December 2009... mm I am having ideas

[Falconeer]

In the Activision / Vivendi merger thread, it was noted that WoW had 9.3 million players.

That would change our winnarz. Can you provide an easy to read link to that?

[Draegan]

http://www.businesswire.com/portal/site/google/index.jsp?ndmViewId=news_view&newsId=20071202005054

Blizzard Entertainment, a division of Vivendi Games, has projected calendar 2007 revenues of $1.1 billion, operating margins of over 40% and approximately $520 million of operating profit. Blizzard owns the #1 multi-player online role-playing game franchise, World of Warcraft, which currently has over 9.3 million subscribers worldwide.

[Falconeer]

Updated accordingly. Comstar and Riggswolfe are our 2 new winners. Too bad for Damijin and Eldaec who were winners for like 4 hours.
And hey, WUA almost won too 

[Yoru]

Bumping after moderation split off like half a day of activity.

Those involved know what not to do. 

[Margalis]

Vanguard has 30k subs. Wow. Even *I* thought it would do a little better than that.

[WindupAtheist]

I didn't do badly, considering how little I knew before making my predictions.

[eldaec]

Feeling the need to point out that some of us actually predicted the non-arrival of the likes of WAR. And so cutting them from the decision of who wins nothing is weak sauce.

/whine_off.

[Falconeer]

You are right Eldaec and for that I'll check the thread back and commend you of your hard-earned no-prices.

[geldonyetich2]

I thought my numbers were pretty good considering I thought I was submitting end-year numbers and not beginning-year ones. :P