Vanguard Beta

[Tale]

Falconeer. Now is the time to stop talking (unless at some point you change your mind about Vanguard).

[shiznitz]

I am an anecdotal counter to Falconeer's thesis. I have played EQ2 since launch and I am a stickier customer now than I was then. I am also an All Access Pass guy so I can jump into Planetside. If Vanguard is part of the AAP I will install it, but I don't expect to do much beyond that. There are a few people in my EQ2 guild who have been level 70 for almost 6 months that will give Vanguard a shot, but not all of them.

So, I will count as a Vanguard sub, probably.

As far as Sigil getting paid, no responsible accountant would allow All Access monies to go to Sigil unless the customer actually logs in. Since AAP is a monthly sub, I imagine the activity test would be applied monthly.

[Venkman]

I have no idea how AAP actually works. But I imagine a percentage of the total take goes to each game based on log ins, which would be standard for an aggregator like that. As shiznitz says, no responbile accountant would allow otherwise. But in general it's win-win for both sides, which is why it works.

[Falconeer]

Falconeer. Now is the time to stop talking (unless at some point you change your mind about Vanguard).

Uh? "Go bashing Vanguard before we all murder you"?
I have no mind to change, other than the idea that the expectations are exaggeratedly low.

[Nebu]

I have no mind to change, other than the idea that the expectations are exaggeratedly low.

Is that possible?  Expectations for Horzons, Matrix Online, and Auto Assault weren't nearly low enough and this is a pretty jaded crowd.

[Falconeer]

That is why I am so impatient about the NDA to drop and the game to launch, Nebu. Vanguard is my Race #8 of the day... I can't wait to see it to the finish line and start cashing or talking about it...

[Trouble]

Perhaps we need a MMO success betting forum?

[Signe]

Perhaps we need a MMO success betting forum?

Or an MMO dead pool.

[Yegolev]

Both fine ideas that I support but do not volunteer to do any work on.

[Falconeer]

I proposed some MMO success betting here long ago, but it would be considered RMT, and I am not sure about the f13 official position about it.
Anyway, I'd predict a fourth, fifth place for Vanguard where everyone else expects it to barely cross the finish line. That sounds too much for me.

[Venkman]

Who says it need be about money? Call it a microeconomy of debit chits that can be used to gear up sigs and titles or avatars. But I'm with Yeg. Nice idea. Someone else go design and code it :)

Falconeer: I don't disagree with your theories of who will be playing VG and why from the current SOE set. However, I do think you overestimate how many people there are in that equation. Unless a significant chunk of WoW or FFXI players hit up VG, they are going to be hard pressed to hit even the numbers quoted here. That's because outside of EQ2, there isn't anything in the SOE lineup that is an immediate transition starting point. SWG? PS? MxO? Heck, even EQ1. Those folks have had 5 years worth of slightly/greatly-enhanced experiences to jump to and still haven't. That includes the very game specifically designed for them.

But it's all academic until Christmas 2007. Fun to hypothesize though ;)

[Falconeer]

Just 2 months ago, in this topic a prediction/betting game came up. It got average to low popularity, and confusion ruled so some predicted about December 2007 while some other about December 2008.

I'd recap the whole thing here for your loins pleasure, and maybe we could start it for true. I'd say both categories should apply at this point, meaning December 2007 AND December 2008. No need to say spot on predictions on Dec 2008 are worth way more kudos than those of 2007.

Bets for December 2007:

Stray
- Warhammer: 400k
- Age of Conan: 200k
- Lord of the Rings Online: 200k
- Vanguard: 30k
- Gods n' Heroes: 50k

Andar
- Vanguard: 50k   
- Lord of the Rings Online:  20k
- Warhammer: 150k   
- Age of Conan:  80k   
- World of Warcraft: 8 millions

Falconeer
- Warhammer: 500k
- Lord of the Rings Online: 200k
- Age of Conan: 250k
- Vanguard: 400k
- World of Warcraft 5 millions

Endie
- Warhammer: 180k
- Lord of the Rings Online: 300k 
- Age of Conan: 120k
- Vanguard: 90k
- World of Warcraft: 4.1 millions

Comstar
- Vanguard: 50K
- Lord of the Rings Online: 50K
- PoTBS: 20K
- Warhammer: 120K
- Age of Conan: 70K
- World of Warcraft: 9million




Bets for December 2008:

Arthur Parker
- Warhammer: 1 million
- Age of Conan: 90k
- Vanguard: 60k

Waylander
- Warhammer: 400k

DataGod
- Vanguard: 68k
- Lord of the Rings Online: 108k
- PoTBS: 154k
- Warhammer: 1,8 millions
- World of Warcraft: 4,1 millions

Cheddar
- Age of Conan: 35k
- Lord of the Rings Online: 40k
- Vanguard: 60k
- Warhammer: 45k
- World of Warcraft: 9 million

Stray
- Warhammer: 150k
- Age of Conan: 150k
- Lord of the Rings Online: 40k
- Vanguard: 60k
- World of Warcraft: 9 millions
- Gods n' Heroes: 250k

Tazelbain
- Warhammer: 300k

WindUpAtheist
- Vanguard: 150k
- Lord of the Rings Online: 90k
- PoTBS: 40k
- Warhammer: 300k
- Age of Conan: 150k
- World of Warcraft: 9 millions

Falconeer
- Warhammer: 1 million
- Lord of the Rings Online: 150k
- Vanguard: 300k
- Age of Conan: 200k
- World of Warcraft: 4 millions



I'd say our little in house game could use this whole month of January to gather more bets and allow some fixing for the earlier gamblers.

[HaemishM]

Perhaps we need a MMO success betting forum?

Or an MMO dead pool.

MMO's don't die, they just get sold to other companies.

[damijin]

Perhaps we need a MMO success betting forum?

Or an MMO dead pool.

MMO's don't die, they just get sold to other companies.

Exception to the rule, of course, being anything that has ever loaded up with the phrase, "Challenge Everything"

[Venkman]

(The list)

I'd say our little in house game could use this whole month of January to gather more bets and allow some fixing for the earlier gamblers.

I'll add my own:

December 2007:
- Vanguard: 300k
- Lord of the Rings Online: 400k
- PoTBS: 100k
- Warhammer: 1mil
- World of Warcraft: 8 mil (because they'll likely do rolling release of BC worldwide like they did their launch. This self-promotes)

December 2008:
- Vanguard: 200k (slow decline but leveling off, likely lost some to AoC)
- Lord of the Rings Online: 200k (decline for folks back to WoW)
- PoTBS: 100k (steady for lack of competition of the like)
- Warhammer: 1.5mil (if they really unique themselves up from WoW)
- World of Warcraft: 7 mil (for hype from the assumed next expansion pack)

[damijin]

I wanna be trendy, and also I have balloons attached to my ceiling to rain down on me whenever I call something correctly, so in anticipation: here's my list.

December 2007:
- Vanguard: 100k (I feel like I'm over-estimating this one, but I'm giving it the benefit of the doubt. maybe there are that many people looking for some alternative to WoW and EQ2)
- Lord of the Rings Online: 80k
- PoTBS: ~30k
- Warhammer: 450k
- World of Warcraft: Oodles.

December 2008:
- Vanguard: 80k (down a bit, due to the plethora of new games in 07, but it keeps it's loyal crowd.)
- Lord of the Rings Online: 50k (down due to not being anything special)
- PoTBS: 70k (gaining steam due to developer devotion and a rabid community that conquers sites like MMORPG.com, like EVE's.)
- Warhammer: 650k (Just because.)
- World of Warcraft: A little less than oodles, on account of being old as fuck.

There simply aren't enough players to explain the kind of numbers some people put in this thread. The niche games will become more plentiful, and they'll all be shooting for around the 100k mark. More and more games will maintain that 100k range, and WoW will slowly decline at a rate very relative to WARs success, but with some irregularity on account of the billions of small games coming out.

edit: sigh, I posted just as a thread for it was made 

[Cheddar]

Just 2 months ago, in this topic a prediction/betting game came up. It got average to low popularity, and confusion ruled so some predicted about December 2007 while some other about December 2008.

I'd recap the whole thing here for your loins pleasure, and maybe we could start it for true. I'd say both categories should apply at this point, meaning December 2007 AND December 2008. No need to say spot on predictions on Dec 2008 are worth way more kudos than those of 2007.
<words>
I'd say our little in house game could use this whole month of January to gather more bets and allow some fixing for the earlier gamblers.

Good idea.  Start a new thread so you can track who predicts what on the first page.  I would like to update my LOTRO estimates; it will definitely get 150k+.

[Chenghiz]

MMO's don't die, they just get sold to other companies.

Didn't Earth & Beyond just up and die?

[WayAbvPar]

I think a benevolent nurse smothered it with a pillow.

[Falconeer]

MMO's don't die, they just get sold to other companies.

Didn't Earth & Beyond just up and die?

Motor City Online was murdered young too, the slayer being EA once again...

[Grimwell]

Asheron's Call 2 is also dead and gone...

[WindupAtheist]

AC2 wasn't really killed so much as it just died of it's horrible horrible flaws.  It wasn't murdered, it was just born with flippers and gills and didn't live long enough to make it out of the hospital.

[HaemishM]

Asheron's Call 2 became the graphic engine for DDO and LOTRO. 

Earth & Beyond died a righteous death as it should. But really, both it and MCO were suicides, owed to being developed by EA or one of its studios.

[LC]

Asheron's Call 2 became the graphic engine for DDO and LOTRO. 

Earth & Beyond died a righteous death as it should. But really, both it and MCO were suicides, owed to being developed by EA or one of its studios.

It was the most expensive engine demo I have ever purchased.

[Nebu]

I actually enjoyed AC2 for a couple of weeks... at least until I realized how many broken classes there were.

[Strazos]

I liked the diving animations.

[AlteredOne]

Back to the actual topic of Vanguard beta...  Rumors are that the NDA should be lifted within a few days, and open beta will begin.  See below for the official word.  Can't wait to see what you folks have to say post-NDA, assuming many of you are in the beta.

http://www.ausguard.com/community/viewtopic.php?t=345&postdays=0&postorder=asc&start=0

From Glip:

"Hey all, I hate to be the bearer of bad news but I think some wires may have gotten crossed somewhere. As per my post on the official forums, we have not confirmed any date for Beta 5 yet, publicly, privately, or anywhere.

"Early" January is all we can say for sure. Obviously, that means soon, but we don't have an exact date yet.


Thanks,

Nick Parkinson
Community Manager
Sigil Games Online "

[d4rkj3di]

Get your popcorn ready, NDA drops tomorrow.

[Falconeer]

Tomorrow?
So I'll start my write-up and ready my fireproof suit right now.

[Nonentity]

Tomorrow?
So I'll start my write-up and ready my fireproof suit right now.

Oh boy! I'll have all sorts of fun stuff to write tomorrow.

[Furiously]

I liked the diving animations.

Hmmm - it's funnier when I say it.

[Endie]

Tomorrow?
So I'll start my write-up and ready my fireproof suit right now.

I'm genuinely interested, particularly in how much they have backed off from The Vision in favour of The Money.

[Nebu]

I'm genuinely interested, particularly in how much they have backed off from The Vision in favour of The Money.

That's sig-worthy.  I almost snorted my diet coke. 

[Shapechanger]

I can't wait to read some of these reviews!  :-D 

[d4rkj3di]

I've been cautioned to remain mature. So I'm not sure if I'll be able to mention a possible Furry population rivaled only by Second Life and WoW Druids.