Does anyone play EQ2?

[HaemishM]

Let me try a different angle:  Prior to the release of Coh/WoW/EQ2, was it not the prevailing view that this market was saturated, no longer growing, and had more products coming than the market could bear?

Post WoW/Coh, has the market outlook for MMORPGs not changed completely?

In my mind, the market has gotten worse. Sure, WoW got 1.5 million subs. But I'm not entirely sure it can keep them, nor am I sure it means that the next MMOG might have better numbers than it would have had if WoW did not exist. It may mean LESS for the new MMOG's, since not only are there more MMOG's out there, but there is the 800-pound gorilla that everyone has played or is playing. Success sometimes breeds success, in the same way that realm population imbalances only get worse in games like WoW or DAoC. You want to play with your friends and they are all playing WoW, what will you be playing?

But it also may just mean bad things for FANTASY RPG MMOG's.

[WindupAtheist]

Maybe you could walk through some numbers here.  At its peak EQ had 400k subs?  Where are the other 1.1 million subs coming from exactly?

(snip)

I am finding it difficult to follow the reasoning here.

Well you see, all those WoW players are just Blizzard fanboys who will never play another MMOG ever.  Yet at the same time, they're also just the tally of subscriber losses from other games.  Once you wrap your mind around the duality of Schild Math, you'll understand how you can triple the numbers of your nearest competitor, yet still not expand the market.

[Shockeye]

Maybe you could walk through some numbers here.  At its peak EQ had 400k subs?  Where are the other 1.1 million subs coming from exactly?

(snip)

I am finding it difficult to follow the reasoning here.

Well you see, all those WoW players are just Blizzard fanboys who will never play another MMOG ever.  Yet at the same time, they're also just the tally of subscriber losses from other games.  Once you wrap your mind around the duality of Schild Math, you'll understand how you can triple the numbers of your nearest competitor, yet still not expand the market.

When it comes to whether MMOG (X) gets made, Blizzard expanded the market because subscriber numbers are there and people will be more willing to invest in (X) because of WoW.

[schild]

Yes, as far as the non-understanding money peoples go. Blizzard expanded the market.

There isn't duality in anything I said. There's simply 3 groups of people playing their game. As evident by the typical sub numbers of guild wars.

1. Blizzard Fans.
2. People hemmorhaged from EQ, DAoC, etc.
3. Blizzard Fans.

I wouldn't be surprised if people "new" to MMOGs that weren't/aren't Blizzard fans before made up less than 5% of their userbase.

Edit: In other words, they expanded THEIR market, but not the Online Gaming Market. Just an example, there's an assload of people that play Starcraft Exclusively. And the only other RTS they'll play is Starcraft 2. When It Comes Out. Do you consider that expanding the RTS market? AFAIK, Starcraft and Diablo II are probably the longest running consistant sales in the PC Gaming arena. I know I've bought multiple copies of each and I know MANY other people that have as well. We'll still sell 3-5 copies a week at EB and when I was at Best Buy it was an easy 5-10 per week on the Battle Chest. I'm pretty sure no other [old] game can claim that.

[Margalis]

What are the lessons from WoW gameplay that new MMOGs will chase?

1) Quests fucking galore
2) Large amounts of solo content
3) Fast levelling

I don't really know if those are the lessons or not, because we haven't seen what the retention rate is on WoW yet. Any other game is going to have much lower initial box sales, which means they either need much lower cost of production or a higher retention rate. 2 and 3 may be detrimental to retention rate. I think you left out point 0:

0) Be a Blizzard game based on an existing property.

I think something like Magic: The Gathering is a good comparison. After Magic there were a ton of card games, many of which died, but some are still going strong. Pokemon and Yugioh, Legend of the Five Rings, etc. You can definitely say that Magic expanded the card game market. If Magic were to go out of business tomorrow the card game industry would still be huge compared to where it was 10-15 years ago.

You can compare that to say the launch of Image Comics and the Death of Superman, death of Robin, Spiderman #1 and XMen #1. Those events in themselves had some immediate positive aftereffects but did nothing for the overall comics market, and if anything were detrimental as many core fans actually left!

I think everyone understands what I am saying here so it doesn't have to turn into an argument about the semantics of market size. One problem is that you can only play one or two MMORPGs at a time, so it's very hard to judge the effect of a game like WoW. My guess is that the short term impact will actually be very negative for games launched until the retention rate starts getting low.

[shiznitz]

I don't really know if those are the lessons or not, because we haven't seen what the retention rate is on WoW yet. Any other game is going to have much lower initial box sales, which means they either need much lower cost of production or a higher retention rate. 2 and 3 may be detrimental to retention rate.

Even only a 50% retention rate = teh win when you start with 1.5 million subs.

[Abel]

Just an example, there's an assload of people that play Starcraft Exclusively. And the only other RTS they'll play is Starcraft 2. When It Comes Out. Do you consider that expanding the RTS market?

Of course not, this is called "cannibalising". Product A replaces B and total market stays the same.

WoW on the other hand is not a replacement for any product, it's a new product building on an existing franchise. It took some players from other MMORPGs and added many new to the genre. THIS IS MARKET EXPANSION.

Frankly your "example" actually is just an example of how you misunderstand the whole subject matter. Your simplistic depiction of "the blizzard fan" who never considers buying anything else but Blizzard products is frankly pathetic. Yes *SOME* Blizzard fans are like that, but *MOST* are pretty standard gamers who just pick up Blizzard products because they know Blizzard produces games that are well-designed, polished and technically stable.

[schild]

Market Expansion implies they're willing to move on to other products and become part of this genres market cycle.

That's simply not going to happen.

[Hoax]

You know if you guys are going to have a really interesting discussion its rude to have it in this sub-forum as it leaves so many of us out of the loop.

I just got through the last two pages and people kept saying what I thought I might have said.  So nothing really to add at this point.

I tend to side with the WoW's numbers are a big deal side of this debate.  First of all I think there is the first large mmog virgin population we've seen since the genre came into existence.  If you believe that I think you should have a very hard time discounting what this can mean for future MMOG's afterall how many of us were much happier when we hadn't dabbled in virtual online worlds?  When the games we bought weren't beta tests that cost us a monthly fee, had horrible balance issues and shitty pvp systems?  But so many have stuck around and continue to try more MMOG's looking for the joy they experienced with their first taste of the genre but was lost once they awoke to all of its flaws.  Unfortunately you never get that feeling of wonder back because nobody has designed a virtual world that doesn't suck donkey dick yet.  Still looking forward to that day...

[shiznitz]

Market Expansion implies they're willing to move on to other products and become part of this genres market cycle.

That's simply not going to happen.

You are defining the issue so you can be right. Market expansion implies nothing other than paying customers(t+1) > paying customers(t). The growth in customers does not have to be permanent for the term to apply correctly.

[schild]

Here's the bigger problem, I view World of Warcraft as a Blizzard game first and an MMORPG second. Just like Warcraft III and Starcraft are Blizzard games first, and RTS games second. There's one way to do something (the rest of the gaming industry) and then there's the Blizzard game. I bet more people still play Starcraft than Total Annihilation, Rise of Nations and Age of Empires combined (those are the big 3 still, right? Throw in Middle Earth and Armies of Exigo if necessary, I'm sure they won't affect much). Point being, Blizzard is an entirely different market. If I were throwing money at a dev team and they said "Well, Blizzard got 2,000,000 people" Well, fuck man, I'd have to shoot those overzealous megalomaniacal dumbfuckers down.

That's just how it is.

[jpark]

Market Expansion implies they're willing to move on to other products and become part of this genres market cycle.

That's simply not going to happen.

Schild VP Business Development, Quixotic Electronics Inc. 

Forbes:  How do you view the robust sales of the iPod over the last 18 months?

Schild:  Another example of Apple fanboism.  Apple customers buy anything do with Apple.

Forbes:  There are a lot of reports of iPods being purchased by people who are not apple (mac) customers.  You don't think this market is growing?

Schild:  Not in the least.  Portable music is not a growing industry it just appears that way.  Apple is simply poaching customers from its competitors.  It's a zero sum game, there is no real growth to speak of here.

Forbes:  So you have no product development plans for portable music in the form of a harddrive like the iPod?

Schild:  Don't be ridiculous.  Of course not.  Eventually the iPod craze will pass, and this entire market will evaporate with it.  That's just how it is.

Obviously I am poking some fun here.  But it's not as sarcastic as it sounds.  I presume that the very same logic applied to Blizzard's success would also hold true for Apple's iPod?  In other words, as a business executive you would look at both and conclude there is no market opportunity.

You're smarter than this.  Give yourself a shake mate.

[jpark]

Let me try a different angle:  Prior to the release of Coh/WoW/EQ2, was it not the prevailing view that this market was saturated, no longer growing, and had more products coming than the market could bear?

Post WoW/Coh, has the market outlook for MMORPGs not changed completely?

In my mind, the market has gotten worse. Sure, WoW got 1.5 million subs. But I'm not entirely sure it can keep them, nor am I sure it means that the next MMOG might have better numbers than it would have had if WoW did not exist. It may mean LESS for the new MMOG's, since not only are there more MMOG's out there, but there is the 800-pound gorilla that everyone has played or is playing. Success sometimes breeds success, in the same way that realm population imbalances only get worse in games like WoW or DAoC. You want to play with your friends and they are all playing WoW, what will you be playing?

But it also may just mean bad things for FANTASY RPG MMOG's.

Not sure I am following you here Haemish.  You're saying in the short term the all or nothing commitment to one MMORPG by customers could hurt the industry given WoW's wide popularity?  That's possible.

What are you saying about the long term?  About the growth of the market? 

And when some players new to the genre get tired of WoW - after a generally positive experience - what do you think will happen?

[schild]

Market Expansion implies they're willing to move on to other products and become part of this genres market cycle.

That's simply not going to happen.

Schild VP Business Development, Quixotic Electronics Inc. 

Forbes:  How do you view the robust sales of the iPod over the last 18 months?

Schild:  Another example of Apple fanboism.  Apple customers buy anything do with Apple.

Forbes:  There are a lot of reports of iPods being purchased by people who are not apple (mac) customers.  You don't think this market is growing?

Schild:  Not in the least.  Portable music is not a growing industry it just appears that way.  Apple is simply poaching customers from its competitors.  It's a zero sum game, there is no real growth to speak of here.

Forbes:  So you have no product development plans for portable music in the form of a harddrive like the iPod?

Schild:  Don't be ridiculous.  Of course not.  Eventually the iPod craze will pass, and this entire market will evaporate with it.  That's just how it is.

Obviously I am poking some fun here.  But it's not as sarcastic as it sounds.  I presume that the very same logic applied to Blizzard's success would also hold true for Apple's iPod?  In other words, as a business executive you would look at both and conclude there is no market opportunity.

You're smarter than this.  Give yourself a shake mate.

I didn't say the MMORPG market wasn't growing. I wouldn't compare apples and oranges like that. Hence the reason I don't put Blizzard Games of any sort and any other game in the same genre. The point I'm trying to make here is seperation of populations. There's huge market opportunity in online gaming. But I wouldn't base any argument on what Blizzard has done. They've made a Blizzard game. No one else is going to, particularly not after Arena.net couldn't. I'm not sure where I made this too complicated for anyone to get, but basing success in the industry on anything by Blizzard is a glamorous mistake. It'd be the equivilent to never putting anything in stores again because Steam was so wildly sucessful. No. Steam was successful because it was fucking Half-Life 2. People got wet at the thought of the content being locked on their computer. World of Warcraft is wildly successful - particularly in the asian countries - largely in part to it being a Blizzard game. Edit: To prevent confusion, I feel the need to point out that in 99% of most cases, brick and mortar is still the best way to go. Much like most Blizzard games it does very little new and has only streamlined what's been done for the last 5-7 years. Sure, some stuff because VERY streamlined, but they've also taken steps back (handling exploiters, n00bkillers or whatever you want to put in there). Their CS sucks, their server administration sucks, their patching is glacial, and the thought of the game actually growing at any sort of reasonable rate in terms of content is nearly as silly as thinking that the Phantom will be a successful gaming system.

Look at it like this - EQ2 has patched in nearly 50x the content Blizzard has in WoW. The games are based on the same mechanics and could theoretically be the exact same thing if the SOE people understood what gamers wanteda  little better. When SOE puts a new place into EQ2 it has voiceovers, new sounds, everything that should be in some place new. Simply by having voiceovers, they're easily tripling the amount of work they need to do. By all accounts, he with the most content should be at the very least growing. Which, very obviously, isn't really happening with EQ2. WoW on the other hand has servers going down left and right, databases that are probably on the verge of exploding, and more people than they ever thought they would get and as far as I can tell have patched in less content in 6 months than CoH pushes out with each issue. Tons of guilds are already on the endgame. There were people in the beta at the endgame already and more than a fair number would move on from the game, I'm sure, if they'd give in to the fact there was nothing left to do. But this is besides the point - if I wanted to get investment in an MMORPG or choose where to put money, it would be somewhere else. Most of the online landscape is completely virgin. Many genres haven't been touched and if they have, they've done a totally shitty job (UBO, etc.). We're just now seeing the inklings of turnbased combat, real FPS games with Gunz and Huxley. Slowly but surely the market place is growing as cable modem pentration grows every day.

That's where you look to, not to a streamlined UO/EQ clone with nary a glimpse of value-adding content and a dev team hemmorhaging employees every week. The fact it has 2,000,000 people in spite of all that is testament to Blizzard more than anything else.

[Margalis]

I don't really know if those are the lessons or not, because we haven't seen what the retention rate is on WoW yet. Any other game is going to have much lower initial box sales, which means they either need much lower cost of production or a higher retention rate. 2 and 3 may be detrimental to retention rate.

Even only a 50% retention rate = teh win when you start with 1.5 million subs.

Yes, but no non-WoW game could hope to start with 1.5 million subs. Blizzard + Warcraft is a combination that other games can't match. 1.5 million + 50% retention may be a winning formula but 150k + 50% retention may not be.

---

Start making this a semantic argument people.

Also, Starcraft is far and away the best RTS game from a competitive standpoint. I have no great love of Diablo or WoW but Starcraft did well because it was the best game for it's time, and really the best RTS overall.

[schild]

I still prefer Total Annihilation and sometimes RoN.

The imbalances right when Starcraft launched were enough to turn me off of it forever.

[Hoax]

Starcraft and Counter-Strike will always fall into the same catagory for me.  Oversimplified and boring compared to other games of the genre.  Not that I ever expect anybody to agree with me but those two being the kings of RTS and FPS respectively will always piss me off.

Total Annihilation is a superior game in just about every single way possible.  Their online persistant campaign was absolutely a blast to be involved in and frankly I'll never touch a RTS that doesn't at least go that far when it comes to their multiplayer efforts.

[UD_Delt]

Market Expansion implies they're willing to move on to other products and become part of this genres market cycle.

That's simply not going to happen.

Actually in one case it already has. A friend of mine was mainly a RTS player and also played some of the Blizzard games. For a long time I tried to convince him he would enjoy MMORPG's, along with his fiancee who played DAOC. When WoW came out he decided to play with his fiancee. They both have since quit the game and she moved back, he moved in to DAOC. I'm now trying to convince the two of them to move to EQ2 which may well happen because she is bored of DAOC and they both grew tired of WoW. He is now bought into the whole MMORPG idea whereas before he was opposed to the whole pay-to-play scene.

So, in at least once case that I am personally aware, Blizzard has expanded the overall MMORPG market. I highly doubt that my friend is the only case of this sort.

[HaemishM]

Let me try a different angle:  Prior to the release of Coh/WoW/EQ2, was it not the prevailing view that this market was saturated, no longer growing, and had more products coming than the market could bear?

Post WoW/Coh, has the market outlook for MMORPGs not changed completely?

In my mind, the market has gotten worse. Sure, WoW got 1.5 million subs. But I'm not entirely sure it can keep them, nor am I sure it means that the next MMOG might have better numbers than it would have had if WoW did not exist. It may mean LESS for the new MMOG's, since not only are there more MMOG's out there, but there is the 800-pound gorilla that everyone has played or is playing. Success sometimes breeds success, in the same way that realm population imbalances only get worse in games like WoW or DAoC. You want to play with your friends and they are all playing WoW, what will you be playing?

But it also may just mean bad things for FANTASY RPG MMOG's.

Not sure I am following you here Haemish.  You're saying in the short term the all or nothing commitment to one MMORPG by customers could hurt the industry given WoW's wide popularity?  That's possible.

Yes, because people will 1) gravitate towards the game their social circle is playing, 2) will only play 1, at most 2, subscription MMOG's at a time. So sure, maybe it brings all these people into the MMOG's, but if they are all playing WoW, it helps no one but WoW. 

What are you saying about the long term?  About the growth of the market? 

Long-term, I don't think it's going to mean a growth of the MMOG market. Small growth, maybe. But the 1.5 or 2 million will only slightly trickle into other MMOG's. There are too many products either too similar to WoW or too inferior to WoW for them to capture a lot of the bleed-off. There are tons of fantasy-based MMORPG's, all of which are, in my opinion, inferior in gameplay to WoW. You may get some of those bleedoff customers in other games, but I think you are more likely to turn them into butterfly customers. You know, people like a lot of the posters on this site, who play a game for 2 weeks to a month and quit again. There isn't enough differentiation between products for those customers to go from 6-months of WoW to 6-months of EQ2 or DAoC. 1 month, maybe 2 tops.

And when some players new to the genre get tired of WoW - after a generally positive experience - what do you think will happen?

I think they will become butterflies, as I said above. Those who like the MMOG idea will become butterflies. Those not totally sold on it will probably go back to single-player games, since little else in the MMOG market stands out, or has the social circle draw that WoW does.