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Fraeg
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Reply #665 on: May 16, 2020, 01:37:08 AM

I was just waiting for my body to go back to normal and thought of things I normally do after being hit by a regular flu or common cold and make sure to not do that stupid shit this time. My voice, sense of taste and smell is slowly recovering.

Your sense of smell is coming back?  Nurse friend is 6 weeks on recovery and still zero sense of smell.

"There is dignity and deep satisfaction in facing life and death without the comfort of heaven or the fear of hell and in sailing toward the great abyss with a smile."
Sky
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Reply #666 on: May 16, 2020, 07:15:06 PM

NY started the phase 1 of reopen yesterday.

People have lost their minds, it seems like the popular opinion is that all restrictions are lifted and people are throwing parties everywhere.

This will go well. We're phase 3 or 4, so I expect to get back to working from the office in about 3 years.  Ohhhhh, I see.

Sir T
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Reply #667 on: May 16, 2020, 07:36:09 PM

I was just waiting for my body to go back to normal and thought of things I normally do after being hit by a regular flu or common cold and make sure to not do that stupid shit this time. My voice, sense of taste and smell is slowly recovering.

Good to hear it. Hopefully you will have some immunity after all this.

Ireland is starting "phase 1" lifting of restrictions on monday. I fully expect Pubs to open (which should be happening stage 4) and be having parties and me sidestepping vomit Tuesday morning. People are stupid.

Sometimes irony is pretty ironic.
Khaldun
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Reply #668 on: May 16, 2020, 07:57:42 PM

The consistency of odd symptoms like the loss of taste/smell really worries me about this disease--I have a really bad feeling it's doing things nobody fully understands and that the third act of this play is going to be about grim chronic afteraffects. It's very clearly not an ordinary respiratory disease, not even on the model of SARS or MERS.
Trippy
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Reply #669 on: May 16, 2020, 11:45:21 PM

Last week researchers in England (pre)-released the largest study to date examining risk factors in COVID-19 deaths using UK NHS health data.

Press release bullet points:

  • Largest study to date, analysing NHS health data from 17.4 million UK adults between 01 February 2020 and 25 April 2020, has given the strongest evidence to date on risk factors associated with COVID-19 death.
  • Among the 17.4 million adults in the sample, there were 5,707 deaths in hospitals attributed to COVID-19.
  • People of Asian and Black ethnic backgrounds are at a higher risk of death and, contrary to prior speculation, this is only partially attributable to pre-existing clinical risk factors or deprivation.
  • Key factors related to COVID-19 death included being male, older age, uncontrolled diabetes and severe asthma.
    A deprived background was also found to be a major risk factor: this was also only partially attributable to other clinical risk factors.

Preprint (non-peer reviewed) paper: OpenSAFELY: factors associated with COVID-19-related hospital death in the linked electronic health records of 17 million adult NHS patients.

"Deprived" is this case means lower-income as measured/classified by patients' postcodes. Every patient, based on their postcode, was classified between 1 and 5 with 1 being highest-income / "least deprived" and 5 being lowest-income / "most deprived".

Fatality risk in the paper is reported using "hazard ratios" or HR. So 1.0 means baseline / reference risk, 2.0 would be double the reference risk, 0.5 half the reference risk, etc. E.g. for risk by gender, female is set at 1.0 and male has an adjusted risk of 1.99 in this study. So men have double the risk of dying from COVID-19 than women, at least in the UK according to the study.

One weakness of this study to me is that, as far as I can tell, it doesn't include SARS-CoV-2 infection risk factors like occupation in the data analysis. E.g. in a country like the UK with shelter in place orders "essential workers" are presumably at higher risk for infection than non-essential workers. And any risk factors that are more common in people with those types of jobs would likely increase the HR of those risk factors.

Most of the risks identified in this study have been reported in other studies with a few notable exceptions:

  • Hypertension is a slightly lower risk, fully adjusted (0.95) compared to Normal blood pressure (1.0).
  • Current smokers have lower risk, fully adjusted (0.88) compared to those that have never smoked (1.0). Ex-smokers have slightly higher risk (1.25).
  • The aforementioned increased risk for lower-income patients (a risk factor that usually isn't examined in other studies)
  • The significantly higher risk for Asians and Blacks, even after being fully adjusted (Asian 1.62, Black 1.71).

Hypertension is often reported as a comorbidity in other studies but there's been disagreement whether or not it is an independent risk factor because, for example, in places with less-than-ideal diets (which is pretty much all of the industrial world), increased age in linked to increased blood pressure. So if you don't take that association into account you may get misleading results. E.g. this editorial in the American Journal of Hypertension calls into question whether or not hypertension and the medications commonly associated with its treatment are risk factors.

The smoking result is interesting. There's been conflicting data on whether or not smoking is a risk factor. A small meta-analysis of five early studies in China concluded that, "smoking is most likely associated with the negative progression and adverse outcomes of COVID-19". However they weaken their own conclusion by also admitting a limited amount of data and "the above results are unadjusted for other factors that may impact disease progression". A much larger more recent meta-analysis of 19 papers concluded smoking is a risk factor for progression of COVID-19. Note that neither meta-analysis attempted to calculate the fatality HR like the UK study did.

The race results in the UK study, while adjusted for the other risk factors included in the study like income, does not appear to take occupation into account like I mentioned above. Looking at the UK ethnicity data by sector we see that Asians are disproportionately employed in the "Distribution, hotels and restaurants" and "Transport and communication" sectors (unfortunately this site rolls up multiple sectors into one category in many cases) compared to Whites. And Blacks are disproportionately employed in the "Public admin, education and health" sectors compared to Whites. So if any of those sectors employ a disproportionate number of "essential workers" that could account for at least some of the higher HR for those races.
« Last Edit: May 16, 2020, 11:47:19 PM by Trippy »
NowhereMan
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Reply #670 on: May 17, 2020, 11:20:18 AM

The consistency of odd symptoms like the loss of taste/smell really worries me about this disease--I have a really bad feeling it's doing things nobody fully understands and that the third act of this play is going to be about grim chronic afteraffects. It's very clearly not an ordinary respiratory disease, not even on the model of SARS or MERS.


Obviously totally anecdote rather than data but my experience of (almost certainly) this thing was totally not a respiratory type infection. I basically had fever, tiredness for a day or so and total loss of my sense of smell but no cough or breathing issues. My fiancee didn't even have fever, basically just felt shitty and sore for a couple of days and then lost her sense of smell. She had actually been symptomatic and over the weekend when we went for a hike and visited a friend of mine (!) but assumed it was general soreness from the gym or something (I would say she's the fucking worst public health professional if the head of the Imperial college research unit hadn't gotten caught breaking lockdown to go shag his mistress).

Between the symptoms and the studies suggesting it might actually function by binding to haemoglobin in red blood cells, I think it's quite likely this is actually a very different kind of disease to what we are used to with influenza and other coronaviruses but there isn't a lot of point worrying about long term effects just because we have no fucking idea.

"Look at my car. Do you think that was bought with the earnest love of geeks?" - HaemishM
jgsugden
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Reply #671 on: May 17, 2020, 04:13:16 PM

The consistency of odd symptoms like the loss of taste/smell really worries me about this disease--I have a really bad feeling it's doing things nobody fully understands and that the third act of this play is going to be about grim chronic afteraffects. It's very clearly not an ordinary respiratory disease, not even on the model of SARS or MERS.
That is pessimistic, but fortunately no hints of that being true. 

One of the struggles I'm having is not assuming the absolute worst.  I mean, there is plenty of shit that is the worst, with so many people ignoring the reality that this thing is out there.  I expect to see slow building of numbers as a percentage of the population, at least, is trying to limit the spread - but we will see some areas explode.

The consistency of odd symptoms like the loss of taste/smell really worries me about this disease--I have a really bad feeling it's doing things nobody fully understands and that the third act of this play is going to be about grim chronic afteraffects. It's very clearly not an ordinary respiratory disease, not even on the model of SARS or MERS.

Obviously totally anecdote rather than data but my experience of (almost certainly) this thing was totally not a respiratory type infection...
This is not the only bug out there and it has a lot of overlap with other bugs.  As this thing manifests differently in different people, it is hard to guess whether you had it or something else unless you get a test.  A lot of us have had some form of health issues in the past few months and thought we had it.  My wife and both kids had fevers, off and on, over the past few weeks.  Could have been the virus, but very likely something else. 

What can you tell me about gaming and fun in Charlotte, NC?
Trippy
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Reply #672 on: May 17, 2020, 04:46:40 PM

The consistency of odd symptoms like the loss of taste/smell really worries me about this disease--I have a really bad feeling it's doing things nobody fully understands and that the third act of this play is going to be about grim chronic afteraffects. It's very clearly not an ordinary respiratory disease, not even on the model of SARS or MERS.
This Science article covers much/most of what we know so far about how SARS-CoV-2 affects the body (though not necessarily why yet):

Science: How does coronavirus kill? Clinicians trace a ferocious rampage through the body, from brain to toes

As for the loss of smell we actually have a pretty good idea why that's happening now. SARS-CoV-2 invades our cells via our ACE2 cell receptors in the presence of the enzyme TMPRSS2. Researchers have also recently shown that tissues in the nose are particularly rich with this combination of proteins. This includes the olfactory epithelium in the roof of the nose which contain the neurons which trigger our sense of smell. So if the virus gets in those cells and starts to replicate it's likely interfering with those cells ability to send the signals back up to the brain that we sense as smells.

Edit: some more info about what may be happening in our noses:

Neurology Today: Loss of Smell as an Early Symptom of COVID-19: What Research Is Uncovering
« Last Edit: May 17, 2020, 05:31:14 PM by Trippy »
Mandella
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Reply #673 on: May 18, 2020, 03:21:44 PM



This is not the only bug out there and it has a lot of overlap with other bugs.  As this thing manifests differently in different people, it is hard to guess whether you had it or something else unless you get a test.  A lot of us have had some form of health issues in the past few months and thought we had it.  My wife and both kids had fevers, off and on, over the past few weeks.  Could have been the virus, but very likely something else. 

That reminded me that I don't think I checked back in with the antibody test results I mentioned earlier. Both the results from my wife and my friend (who was absolutely certain he had it) were negative. Now I know that the tests are not conclusive (and said friend makes that point every time it comes up), but it strikes me that going to the trouble and expense of getting a test and not going forward accepting the results of that test doesn't make a lot of sense.

So I'm assuming that I haven't had it, and plan to keep up good sanitary practices (distance, washing, masks, and constant sanitizing) going until I get it or get a vaccine.
schild
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Reply #674 on: May 18, 2020, 03:23:52 PM

If your wife didn't have it, you probably don't. But I'm sure you already know that.
jgsugden
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Reply #675 on: May 18, 2020, 08:16:47 PM

If you or someone you know tests positive and gets through it - do not assume you're immune.  It is likely that your antibodies will protect you, but that is not a lock, yet.  We don't know what percentage of people are protected by antibodies, and we don't know how long that protection will last.  Better safe than the fucking idiots I see every fucking day.  Those fuckers keep it up, and they'll realize how deadly this fucking virus is because I'll fucking k... Ahem. 

I appreciate the intelligence on these boards as I see people getting informed.  Understanding how it transfers (as much as we can), what it does to the body and how tp play it safe are things that way too many people can't seem to fathom.

Are people watching South Korea and China?  They are telling thousands of people to get tested based on cell phone location data if they were near a pocket - and they're still seeing resurgence in the reopening economy.  We're still having trouble getting tested if we think we're sick and we're practically fucking each other on the streets already.

What can you tell me about gaming and fun in Charlotte, NC?
schild
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Reply #676 on: May 18, 2020, 11:30:42 PM

i mean china is just megafucked regardless, so it's kind of moot in regards to how they handle it
Khaldun
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Reply #677 on: May 19, 2020, 07:42:05 AM

There was still a flu strain around this winter, and people as usual got it--and almost everyone who did thinks they had covid-19 instead.

As my neighbor pointed out, you could get something like Lyme disease this spring and think it was covid unless you got lucky and spotted the bullseye rash, which doesn't always appear. Etc.
Mandella
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Reply #678 on: May 19, 2020, 07:00:11 PM

There was still a flu strain around this winter, and people as usual got it--and almost everyone who did thinks they had covid-19 instead.

As my neighbor pointed out, you could get something like Lyme disease this spring and think it was covid unless you got lucky and spotted the bullseye rash, which doesn't always appear. Etc.


I do know a smattering of folks that did test positive, but they were all from mid Feb at the earliest. It does look like late January flu was, indeed, just the flu.
jgsugden
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Reply #679 on: May 19, 2020, 07:18:39 PM

Nobody remembers all the tables comparing allergies, the flu and COVID - do they?

What can you tell me about gaming and fun in Charlotte, NC?
Tale
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sıɥʇ ǝʞıן sʞןɐʇ


Reply #680 on: May 19, 2020, 08:50:39 PM

If you or someone you know tests positive and gets through it - do not assume you're immune.  It is likely that your antibodies will protect you, but that is not a lock, yet.  We don't know what percentage of people are protected by antibodies, and we don't know how long that protection will last.

Yep, also you can be just fucking lucky.

On page 1 of this thread, my parents (in their late 70s) were quarantined after spending several hours with an infected friend on March 9. A few days later, the friend was admitted to hospital, and died the next week.

My father sat next to the person at lunch. The person gave my mother a lottery ticket in an envelope, which she took home. When the person's Covid-19 was diagnosed, my parents were quarantined for 2 weeks back in mid-March, swabbed and tested negative. Last week (mid-May) my father developed a cough that alarmed his doctor, but tested negative again.
schild
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Reply #681 on: May 19, 2020, 11:59:47 PM

well, blood test done, now we wait

til friday

fingers crossed I didn't spend 5 weeks coughing for no reason whatsoever
MrHat
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Out of the frying pan, into the fire.


Reply #682 on: May 20, 2020, 08:48:04 AM

well, blood test done, now we wait

til friday

fingers crossed I didn't spend 5 weeks coughing for no reason whatsoever


Maybe you're allergic to sourdough starter.
schild
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Reply #683 on: May 20, 2020, 10:19:30 AM

well, blood test done, now we wait

til friday

fingers crossed I didn't spend 5 weeks coughing for no reason whatsoever


Maybe you're allergic to sourdough starter.
i'd be fucking dead then
slog
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Reply #684 on: May 21, 2020, 07:38:52 AM

The CDC has clarified how easily the virus spreads on surfaces.  Nice to see some more good news.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2020/05/20/coronavirus-does-not-spread-easily-surfaces-objects-cdc/5232748002/

"Die of flaming ass cancer you schmuck. No really, die."

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jgsugden
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Reply #685 on: May 21, 2020, 08:21:57 AM

There is absolutely no news here.  We've been told for two months: Use proper precautions and your risk of being infected by surfaces is low.  That is the same thing they're saying now - just with different wording. 

Journalists see those guidelines and report:
Quote
The virus does not spread easily in other ways

COVID-19 is a new disease and we are still learning about how it spreads. It may be possible for COVID-19 to spread in other ways, but these are not thought to be the main ways the virus spreads.

From touching surfaces or objects. It may be possible that a person can get COVID-19 by touching a surface or object that has the virus on it and then touching their own mouth, nose, or possibly their eyes. This is not thought to be the main way the virus spreads, but we are still learning more about this virus.
And ignore:
Quote
The virus spreads easily between people

How easily a virus spreads from person-to-person can vary. Some viruses are highly contagious, like measles, while other viruses do not spread as easily. Another factor is whether the spread is sustained, which means it goes from person-to-person without stopping.

The virus that causes COVID-19 is spreading very easily and sustainably between people. Information from the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic suggest that this virus is spreading more efficiently than influenza, but not as efficiently as measles, which is highly contagious.

If you read them together, it actually says 'Hey, Fuckheads.  Stop hanging out together.  This shit transmits easily from person to person.  The only reason people are getting sick is because you assholes can't follow social distancing.  The new cases you see are generally not because someone touched a doorknob or received a package from Amazon.  Well, the fuckheads that take no precautions could get sick that way (if not already getting sick by being close to the people that infected the object), but seriously - know the fuck off with your hanging out together and we'll knock this virus down a lot and give ourselves a chance to get a vaccine before we hit herd immunity the hard way. Just use sensible precautions when you're handling shit and you'll be fine.'

What can you tell me about gaming and fun in Charlotte, NC?
Sir T
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Reply #686 on: May 21, 2020, 10:00:22 AM

Looking at that, wouldn't it be a good idea to test whether if you inject yourself with bleach or shove a UV light up your ass, would that cure the corona?

Just referencing an occasion where corona spread on surfaces may have been mentioned.

Sometimes irony is pretty ironic.
jgsugden
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Reply #687 on: May 21, 2020, 10:25:55 AM

Looking at that, wouldn't it be a good idea to test whether if you inject yourself with bleach or shove a UV light up your ass, would that cure the corona?...
(shhhh… you'll ruin the chances of convincing our special friends that glow in the dark condoms are UV emitters…)

What can you tell me about gaming and fun in Charlotte, NC?
Trippy
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Reply #688 on: May 21, 2020, 02:24:52 PM

A pre-print study estimating global COVID-19 IFR by estimating country IFR values based on their CFR and testing rate / sample prevalence was released a few days ago. The authors' maths and number crunching results in a global IFR of 1.04%, with the 95% Confidence Interval range being 0.77% to 1.38%. If I understand their methodology correctly, what they are claiming is essentially as more of a population is tested over time (testing rate / sample prevalence) a country's CFR will converge on its IFR so we can look at the CFRs and testing rates among different countries, which currently vary widely, and estimate what value(s) is being converged on across all of them.

Estimating the Global Infection Fatality Rate of COVID-19
Trippy
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Reply #689 on: May 21, 2020, 02:43:19 PM

And another pre-print study using a similar concept as the one above, but looking just at the US data, where if you extrapolate out declining CFRs over time you end up with the "IFR-S" (IFR for symptomatic people).

Estimating The Infection Fatality Rate Among Symptomatic COVID-19 Cases In The United States
Quote
Using data through April 20, 2020, we fit a statistical model to COVID-19 case fatality rates over time at the US county level to estimate the COVID-19 IFR among symptomatic cases (IFR-S) as time goes to infinity. The IFR-S in the US was estimated to be 1.3% (95% central credible interval: 0.6% to 2.1%).
IFR-S will be greater than IFR cause it's not including all the asymptomatic people. The author estimates IFR to about 20% lower than IFR-S based on the data from the Diamond Princess outbreak.
SurfD
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Reply #690 on: May 21, 2020, 04:38:47 PM

For "how fucked are we" comparison sake, How does an IFR-S of 1.3% for Corona stack up vs something like the standard Flu?

Darwinism is the Gateway Science.
MahrinSkel
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Reply #691 on: May 21, 2020, 04:53:28 PM

For "how fucked are we" comparison sake, How does an IFR-S of 1.3% for Corona stack up vs something like the standard Flu?
Flu is 0.1%, so X13. In the article, they do the calculations for COVID hitting as many people in the US as the flu. 33.5 M X 1.3% = 435,500.

That's kinda a best-case scenario, since the flu is constrained by both collateral immunity from closely related strains and extensive immunization campaigns. None of the normally extant coronaviruses that cause things like colds are closely related to SARS-COV2.

You can run it backwards to get an estimate of how many people have actually had it, 93,533 / 0.013 = 7,194,846 (compared to the official case count of 1,570,583).

--Dave

--Jello Biafra: "If evolution is outlawed, only outlaws will evolve."
Trippy
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Reply #692 on: May 21, 2020, 05:03:07 PM

The figure that's most widely quoted for the IFR of regular influenza is 0.1% like Dave posted above.

However, in the US, at least, annual flu death numbers are *estimated*, not directly counted, and the reported estimated deaths are inflated significantly by the CDC to account for cases that aren't counted by traditional means. I can't find where I read this at the moment (I'll add to the list below when I do*) but one thing I saw suggested the CDC *way* overestimates the number as a way to encourage people to get a flu shot. So it's likely that at least in the US that actual influenza IFR is significantly lower than 0.1% which makes SARS-CoV-2 even more deadly in comparison.

JAMA: Assessment of Deaths From COVID-19 and From Seasonal Influenza

Scientific American: Comparing COVID-19 Deaths to Flu Deaths Is like Comparing Apples to Oranges

* Edit: it's commentary from one of the authors of the JAMA article linked above made to Medscape Medical News which requires a (free) log in view:

Medscape: Comparing COVID-19, Flu Death Tolls 'Extremely Dangerous' (log in required to view)
Quote
"It's apparent [the CDC has] been overestimating," Faust said. "If you publish a number on the higher end of the estimate, people might take your public health messages more seriously, such as, it's important to get your yearly flu shot."
« Last Edit: May 21, 2020, 05:21:25 PM by Trippy »
Salamok
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Reply #693 on: May 22, 2020, 12:17:37 PM



With their very first sentance of the first article they are already getting bendy with the truth.

"As of early May 2020, approximately 65 000 people in the US had died of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19),1"

Then you see via the footnote showing the data is from April 28th.  And if the number was 65k on April 28th then in the last 25 days or so we have seen nearly a 45% increase, camparing it to a years worth of Flu deaths while ignoring that sort of progression is beyond reaching for a conclusion to support some wishful point.
RhyssaFireheart
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Reply #694 on: May 22, 2020, 12:34:34 PM

So I just found out that I get to have a C-19 screening to prepare for my upcoming medical procedure on 19-June (yay, for avoiding a colonoscopy for this long). Which considering I can count the number of times I've interacted with someone other than my husband on one hand, I certainly hope I don't have it.

Mandella
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Reply #695 on: May 22, 2020, 12:41:01 PM

Silver linings dept: Except for allergies, this has been the most healthy spring in my memory for both me and the wife. No spring colds, stomach flues, or other contagious crap. It really looks like all these masks and plastic spit guards and hand washing and social distancing might be making a difference in just the regular stuff.

On the other hand, now I'm worried that we're losing overall immune system health, since that does need to be exercised by exposure...
Sky
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Reply #696 on: May 22, 2020, 02:08:25 PM

Silver linings dept: Except for allergies, this has been the most healthy spring in my memory for both me and the wife. No spring colds, stomach flues, or other contagious crap. It really looks like all these masks and plastic spit guards and hand washing and social distancing might be making a difference in just the regular stuff.

On the other hand, now I'm worried that we're losing overall immune system health, since that does need to be exercised by exposure...
I have a pretty healthy immune system, even before I spent the last 20 years working directly with the public at the library. The health factor I've noticed improved significantly? My sinuses have been clear for the entire lockdown. I normally wear breathing strips and have constant stuffiness and have been certain for years it was due to the shitty air in our office.

Goes back to my dislike of engineers. Engineer told our maintenance guy that the HVAC we installed years ago supplied fresh air to all spaces. We have a ceiling unit in our office and all the windows are sealed. The maintenance guy never cleans the filter. I wonder why I have respiratory issues in a closed office with no airflow and a dirty HVAC filter that just keeps recycling the same air all day.

Khaldun
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Reply #697 on: May 22, 2020, 09:19:48 PM

It's real clarifying about where your colds and minor illnesses come from.

I don't know if there's any research on this, but I genuinely doubt that an immune system that's trained on normal volumes of social interaction loses its 'training' in a single period of six months or so. It's clear that there's always a vulnerability to novel social interaction--it's why people get so sick when their toddlers first go to school (interaction with a novel population of adults--not just the families of the other children but all the people those families interact with) and why they are prone to get sick when travelling far away, but I think in your own social worlds, your immune system's training has to be pretty vigorous even when there's some months of  relative isolation.
Sky
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Reply #698 on: May 23, 2020, 12:28:45 PM

My favorite local restaurant is reopening. They sent a nice email about all the stuff they're doing, 'industry-leading' methods, like distancing the tables.

All I can see is that infographic about the guy sitting by the AC that infected half the entire room.

I continue to be a harbinger of we're all fucked on this one.

HaemishM
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Reply #699 on: May 23, 2020, 02:35:50 PM

We're most of us fucked. Business owners, especially larger corporations or smaller, less scrupulous ones will make a whole lot of noise about how they are looking out for their customers but push comes to shove, they won't bother.

More worrisome are the fact that the average mouth-breathing fucktard out there sees their leaders telling them to reopen to save the economy and automatically think everything is safe. See the crowds of jackwagons out and about in Wisconsin and Ohio, assholes to elbows in bars and restaurants without a mask among them, loudly celebrating the return of their "FREEDOM!"

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