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Author Topic: NFL 2016  (Read 22983 times)
WayAbvPar
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on: February 10, 2016, 11:34:27 AM

Super Bowl is over, so we can talk about what a shithead Manziel is and how much we would like to be Von Miller's agent here until actual stuff starts happening.

Super Bowl 51 odds  as of today (2nd number is the original line)-

Code:
Seattle Seahawks 8-1 8
New England Patriots 8-1 8
Pittsburgh Steelers 8-1 8
Green Bay Packers 10-1 10
Arizona Cardinals 10-1 10
Carolina Panthers 12-1 12
Denver Broncos 20-1 12
Cincinnati Bengals 12-1 14
Dallas Cowboys 14-1 14
Minnesota Vikings 20-1 18
Indianapolis Colts 20-1 20
Kansas City Chiefs 20-1 20
New York Jets 30-1 30
Baltimore Ravens 30-1 30
Buffalo Bills 30-1 40
Atlanta Falcons 40-1 40
Houston Texans 40-1 40
New York Giants 40-1 40
Washington Redskins 40-1 40
Philadelphia Eagles 40-1 40
Chicago Bears 40-1 40
Detroit Lions 40-1 40
New Orleans Saints 40-1 40
Oakland Raiders 50-1 40
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 50-1 50
Los Angeles Rams 50-1 50
Miami Dolphins 50-1 50
Tennessee Titans 50-1 60
Jacksonville Jaguars 50-1 60
San Diego Chargers 50-1 60
San Francisco 49ers 60-1 60
Cleveland Browns 200-1 200

When speaking of the MMOG industry, the glass may be half full, but it's full of urine. HaemishM

Always wear clean underwear because you never know when a Tory Government is going to fuck you.- Ironwood

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Paelos
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Reply #1 on: February 10, 2016, 11:56:58 AM

KC at 20-1 seems a good value to me given their division and their defense.

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Braves by the Numbers, my sports blog
WayAbvPar
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Reply #2 on: February 10, 2016, 11:59:49 AM

Baltimore at 30-1 isn't a bad sleeper pick. They had a million injuries last year and will get a good draft pick. Their front office knows how to build a team.

When speaking of the MMOG industry, the glass may be half full, but it's full of urine. HaemishM

Always wear clean underwear because you never know when a Tory Government is going to fuck you.- Ironwood

Who the hell taught you how to write? Fuck, that sentence is like internet transmitted face-attacking knives. Jesus. schild
01101010
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Reply #3 on: February 10, 2016, 12:27:43 PM

Rams, if they get someone under center, a stud LB, and a good corner.

"I want to watch it all burn in an orgy of smashed Coke machines and weasel rape." - HaemishM
shiznitz
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Reply #4 on: February 10, 2016, 01:14:25 PM

KC at 20-1 seems a good value to me given their division and their defense.

Andy Reid is not a Super Bowl capable coach and Alex Smith is not a Super Bowl capable QB. I would give 100-1 odds on KC to anyone.

I have never played WoW.
Trippy
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Reply #5 on: February 10, 2016, 02:01:14 PM

Andy Reid has been to the Super Bowl as a head coach, though admittedly it's been a while. And Super Bowls have been won with QBs worse than Alex Smith, like, say, this last one. Dropping them to 100 - 1 means you think the 49ers somehow have a better chance of making the Super Bowl than the Chiefs next season which seems highly unlikely.
HaemishM
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Reply #6 on: February 10, 2016, 02:04:21 PM

I don't think either of them have a 1000-1 chance of making the Super Bowl, much less winning one.  why so serious?

Trippy
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Reply #7 on: February 10, 2016, 02:12:18 PM

As a first-order approximation you can assume those odds correlate to the games won in the regular season. I.e. those odds are saying the Seahawks, Patriots and Steelers at 8 - 1 are going to have better regular season records than, say, the Jets and Ravens at 30 - 1. By saying the Chiefs should have 100 - 1 odds means you think they will have a worst regular season record than the Niners (assuming you believe the 60 - 1 odds for Niners is correct). Again that seems highly unlikely.
Paelos
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Reply #8 on: February 10, 2016, 02:20:25 PM

Andy Reid has been to the Super Bowl as a head coach, though admittedly it's been a while. And Super Bowls have been won with QBs worse than Alex Smith, like, say, this last one. Dropping them to 100 - 1 means you think the 49ers somehow have a better chance of making the Super Bowl than the Chiefs next season which seems highly unlikely.

Have you seen the QBs that have won Super Bowls lately in this brand new "WTF IS A CATCH?" League? Outside of Brady, the last five have been won by Peyton Manning's corpse, Dink and Dunk Wilson, Joe "Denver's defense fell down" Flacco, and Eli-Face.

At this point, winning the damn thing is primarily about your defense, and then your running game, and then if your QB can move the ball in a DISTANT third.

CPA, Sports blogger, Mount and Blade enthusiast
Braves by the Numbers, my sports blog
Shannow
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Reply #9 on: February 10, 2016, 02:33:58 PM

Your running game? What drugs are you on.

Usually it's about balance. You need at least a good QB (not great) a good defense, a good coach and get hot at the right time. Lets face it, winning the Superbowl with your QB throwing for 141 yards and a pick is an aberration.

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Paelos
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Reply #10 on: February 10, 2016, 03:02:07 PM

Your running game? What drugs are you on.

Usually it's about balance. You need at least a good QB (not great) a good defense, a good coach and get hot at the right time. Lets face it, winning the Superbowl with your QB throwing for 141 yards and a pick is an aberration.

Your running game is the balance. That's the point.

The teams that fling it around like jackasses lose eventually. You have to have a decent running game before you have a shot in hell. You can't have NO quarterback, but the days where you need to have the best QB to win the big dance are over in my mind. They are retiring with the likes of Peyton and Brady. Even Aaron Rodgers can't overcome his teams issues when they can't run the ball and can't defend.

CPA, Sports blogger, Mount and Blade enthusiast
Braves by the Numbers, my sports blog
Goumindong
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Reply #11 on: February 10, 2016, 06:40:46 PM

Andy Reid has been to the Super Bowl as a head coach, though admittedly it's been a while. And Super Bowls have been won with QBs worse than Alex Smith, like, say, this last one. Dropping them to 100 - 1 means you think the 49ers somehow have a better chance of making the Super Bowl than the Chiefs next season which seems highly unlikely.

Have you seen the QBs that have won Super Bowls lately in this brand new "WTF IS A CATCH?" League? Outside of Brady, the last five have been won by Peyton Manning's corpse, Dink and Dunk Wilson, Joe "Denver's defense fell down" Flacco, and Eli-Face.

At this point, winning the damn thing is primarily about your defense, and then your running game, and then if your QB can move the ball in a DISTANT third.

Its more that QB's are a lot better than they used to be so there are fewer standout players. It was only recently that the best players physically are filtered to QB positions as opposed to running backs/receivers. In terms of yards/game only 3 of the top 15 players aren't currently playing (Farve, Marino, and Warner). Number 14 on this list is Eli Manning. Number 24 is Joe Flacco.

So no one of the recent era is particularly bad. Even Peyton Manning's HGH riddled corpse would have been a powerful QB from the era when you "had to have a good QB to win". They're only average(Eli) or bad(Flacco*/Manning) relative to the time they play in. Wilson and Brady of course are two of the best in the game.

*depending on which year, he was rubbish the year he won the bowl but has been pretty average otherwise
TheWalrus
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Reply #12 on: February 10, 2016, 06:44:12 PM

Wilson and Brady of course are two of the best in the game.

And a response, Paelos? why so serious?

Paelos: Somebody find that post where I declared Seattle dead, because those fuckers are NFL cockroaches in the NFC.
sickrubik
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Reply #13 on: February 10, 2016, 08:29:36 PM

It's almost like QB play relies on more than just the QB.

beer geek.
Paelos
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Reply #14 on: February 11, 2016, 07:55:53 AM

Wilson and Brady of course are two of the best in the game.

And a response, Paelos? why so serious?

Wilson actually had one of the best years of his career passing wise. He was higher percentage down the field 10+ yards, he was throwing the ball more, and he's a passer rating darling anyway because of the short passing and screen scheme on that team.

That being said, most of his success was late in the year, and 30% of his TDs came in 2 games. He had 5 TDs in one game against Pitt because Seattle intercepted them 4 times. He had 5 TDs against a Baltimore team that started Jimmy Clausen and had no hope of actually scoring.

I've said before I don't know what kind of QB he really is yet because I think he's been the beneficiary of a great defense and running game with a solvable cap number. That's gone as of next season. His cap is now $18M, and that will force Seattle to actually do what the rest of the league does and adjust. We'll find out what he's worth in 2016.

CPA, Sports blogger, Mount and Blade enthusiast
Braves by the Numbers, my sports blog
K9
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Reply #15 on: February 28, 2016, 02:43:32 PM

This is the closest I've seen to someone literally tripping over their own dick  awesome, for real

In unsurprising NFL news we're tagging Jefferey and the Skins look to be tagging Cousins.

Also the next Hard Knocks might be the Saints, which wouldn't usually be exciting, but after watching Bill O'Brien do his best impression of a human for six episodes last year it might actually be an improvement.

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Reply #16 on: March 08, 2016, 01:00:16 PM

Megatron announced his retirement today. Yet another greatest to play their position while they were playing that spent their entire career in the motor city with no results to show for it.

'Reality' is the only word in the language that should always be used in quotes.
HaemishM
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Reply #17 on: March 08, 2016, 01:21:01 PM

Detroit - wearing down HOF players to a nub since 1960.

Paelos
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Reply #18 on: March 08, 2016, 01:31:06 PM

Detroit and Cleveland should be relegated to different owners in a different city. Yet they moved St. Louis.


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Braves by the Numbers, my sports blog
Malakili
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Reply #19 on: March 08, 2016, 02:26:59 PM

It's remarkable how they can stay so bad for so long.
Cyrrex
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Reply #20 on: March 09, 2016, 12:48:18 AM

And yet, they are so different.  With Detroit, at least you can occasionally fool yourself into thinking they are making progress and have a real chance.  They even have a number of really big players at any given time, they just find a way to squander it year after year.  Always so tantalizingly on the cusp of...something.

With Cleveland, yeah...they are never remotely interesting in any sense.  Unless you're talking about just how inept they are in every single area of the organization and how spectacularly horrible they are at everything.  The most exciting thing about Cleveland is whether or not Manziel has been beating up on his woman (protip: of course he has).

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HaemishM
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Reply #21 on: March 09, 2016, 10:15:39 AM

With both of those teams though, I wonder just how they can unfuck themselves. Detroit obviously has economic issues with the support and the area around them but Cleveland doesn't really have that much of an excuse. Their new-ish ownership group is just a money-funneling machine run by fucking criminals so I suppose one can argue that without an ownership change, there's nothing to be done to right that ship. And with NFL teams basically being money-printing machines no matter how fucking bad the team is, I don't see that changing short of a prison sentence for the owner.

Detroit is going to be really fucking bad this year. They have a QB who can get them to the playoffs but can't be relied on to win games without a superstar to catch the ball - and they clearly aren't going to have that this year. All the progress they made in the last 5 or 6 years building a fearsome defense is gone as they've let some of their best players go through free agency and haven't really replaced them. So at least I can see Green Bay having 2 free wins next season.  why so serious?

01101010
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Reply #22 on: March 09, 2016, 01:39:51 PM

With both of those teams though, I wonder just how they can unfuck themselves. Detroit obviously has economic issues with the support and the area around them but Cleveland doesn't really have that much of an excuse. Their new-ish ownership group is just a money-funneling machine run by fucking criminals so I suppose one can argue that without an ownership change, there's nothing to be done to right that ship. And with NFL teams basically being money-printing machines no matter how fucking bad the team is, I don't see that changing short of a prison sentence for the owner.

Detroit is going to be really fucking bad this year. They have a QB who can get them to the playoffs but can't be relied on to win games without a superstar to catch the ball - and they clearly aren't going to have that this year. All the progress they made in the last 5 or 6 years building a fearsome defense is gone as they've let some of their best players go through free agency and haven't really replaced them. So at least I can see Green Bay having 2 free wins next season.  why so serious?

No idea why Cleveland is so bad all the time. You'd think with how hot the names are on the OL, they would not be shittastic passing or running the ball. I mean every time they talk about Alex Mack, Joe Thomas, and to a lesser degree Mitchell Schwartz, you get this all pro rah rah top 5 in that position har har har banter. If that were the case, then wtf happened with the running game? I don't think I'll ever understand it.

And then you get all the talk about hiring 'football' guys to run the team. So of course, the owner runs out and creates a front office of harvard grads to right the ship. I can't even discuss the Tribe or the Cavs...

Then again, Cleveland could take a team of allstars in any sport and make them achieve less. Something about the water in that town.

"I want to watch it all burn in an orgy of smashed Coke machines and weasel rape." - HaemishM
Chimpy
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Reply #23 on: March 09, 2016, 02:16:01 PM

Well of course the water makes people crazy, it is flammable!  why so serious?

'Reality' is the only word in the language that should always be used in quotes.
K9
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Reply #24 on: March 09, 2016, 02:35:42 PM

So something called a Trevor Siemian is currently the only QB on the Broncos roster.

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01101010
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Reply #25 on: March 09, 2016, 04:27:23 PM

So something called a Trevor Siemian is currently the only QB on the Broncos roster.

Just read that... amazing really. Watch them grab Kap or RGIII.

"I want to watch it all burn in an orgy of smashed Coke machines and weasel rape." - HaemishM
HaemishM
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Reply #26 on: March 09, 2016, 04:36:53 PM

Holy shit. How did Denver let him get away? Especially when he signs for 4-yr/$72 million ($37 million guaranteed)? Even for a mediocre QB that can start, that's fucking peanuts. And funny enough, it's great deal both for the Texans AND Brock Lobster. They get an instant upgrade at QB (though we don't know how good he'll be in a team with no RB and only one legit passing threat) and he gets to sign a new contract when he's in his QB prime provided he actually turns out to be a decent QB.

AND the Texans signed Lamar Miller, though I don't know how much that upgrades the RB position - surely he's better than Blue.

Still, just not sure what the fuck the Broncos were thinking by not locking up Osweiller sooner, especially if he was willing to take that kind of deal.

Goumindong
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Reply #27 on: March 09, 2016, 04:55:58 PM

Not sure Denver had the cap space

Ed: or maybe Brock really did not like being there
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Reply #28 on: March 09, 2016, 05:03:46 PM

Trippy
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Reply #29 on: March 09, 2016, 05:19:04 PM

So something called a Trevor Siemian is currently the only QB on the Broncos roster.
Just read that... amazing really. Watch them grab Kap or RGIII.
I hear Tim Tebow is available awesome, for real
Cyrrex
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Reply #30 on: March 10, 2016, 07:52:07 AM

Isn't Fitzmagic also available? 

Never, ever assume someone that short and fat has their shit together. - Schild
01101010
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Reply #31 on: March 10, 2016, 08:58:11 AM

Regardless, I can't remember when a team lost its starting QB and its backup in one week. Crazy situation.

Manziel will be available soon enough.  why so serious?

"I want to watch it all burn in an orgy of smashed Coke machines and weasel rape." - HaemishM
HaemishM
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Reply #32 on: March 10, 2016, 11:27:34 AM

There's a host of really shitty options Denver could pick up for next to nothing. I'm still trying to figure out if any of them would be better than The Noodle-Armed Five Head that was Peyton Manning this season. Fitzmagic probably would but all the rest? Ick.

Paelos
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Reply #33 on: March 10, 2016, 11:36:47 AM

There's a host of really shitty options Denver could pick up for next to nothing. I'm still trying to figure out if any of them would be better than The Noodle-Armed Five Head that was Peyton Manning this season. Fitzmagic probably would but all the rest? Ick.

I think there's a chance Paxton Lynch falls to them given the other QB options out there. If they want to roll the dice on him, it would be worth the draft pick.

CPA, Sports blogger, Mount and Blade enthusiast
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HaemishM
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Reply #34 on: March 10, 2016, 11:46:46 AM

They'll definitely draft a QB - be silly not to considering most of the options out there are abject failures, or just good enough to get to the playoffs only to throw 6 picks in the wild card round.

Wonder if they'd take a flier at AJ McCarron?

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