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Author Topic: NHL 2014-2015  (Read 18055 times)
Ceryse
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Reply #35 on: October 15, 2014, 12:09:29 PM

Well, only game I'm betting on tonight is the Coyotes-Oilers game; I put $50 on Arizona in a simple win option. Coyotes should win for a number of reasons; second game of a back-to-back for the Oilers, Coyotes are 10-0-3 against the Oilers in their barn over the last 13, and the ex-Oiler factor means Gagner should score well against the Oilers tonight, especially as he's in a slump (I'm not kidding, if you dig out the stats for this, recent ex-Oilers are some of the most prolific scorers against Edmonton, comparing almost as well as players like Crosby).

However, Oilers have dropped Hunt in favour of Petry (hah, I'm surprised they were smart enough for this), and rumour has it that RNH and Eberle are game-time decisions.

Yet... Pinizotto was called up (Yakimov sent down) and will play wing and Acton will move to center (which is dumb, as our fourth line is, currently, doing exceptionally well -- hell, they were +1 against L.A.!) which means both RNH and Eberle could be very questionable to play, and that if one does.. it is more likely to be Eberle who has looked like utter shit from pre-season on; and is one of the laziest players outside of the offensive zone I have ever seen.

Not a game I'd bet heavily on, as despite all the reasons for an Oiler loss, the Oilers have a tendency to play better after a drubbing, or at least, Hall tends to force the team into appearing like an NHL team after a drubbing.

Paelos
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Reply #36 on: October 15, 2014, 12:29:26 PM

Sounds like a 1 unit play. I'll give it whirl.

CPA, Sports blogger, Mount and Blade enthusiast
Braves by the Numbers, my sports blog
Speedy Cerviche
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Reply #37 on: October 16, 2014, 06:42:35 AM

Man I actually watched the 3rd period of that, was up late after my own game. Oilers looked pretty bad, looks like I was too optimistic about them. at least the Isles seem to be somewhat legit
Paelos
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Reply #38 on: October 16, 2014, 07:04:46 AM

Two for two! Keep it up ceryse!

CPA, Sports blogger, Mount and Blade enthusiast
Braves by the Numbers, my sports blog
murdoc
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Reply #39 on: October 16, 2014, 07:30:12 AM


Have you tried the internet? It's made out of millions of people missing the point of everything and then getting angry about it
Speedy Cerviche
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Posts: 2361


Reply #40 on: October 16, 2014, 08:47:30 AM

oh man time to put Oil fans on suicide watch. It's sinking in that this is going to be another long, cold winter during Oiler season.

For a laugh check out hfboards fan trade proposal forum,
http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/forumdisplay.php?f=3

Half the 1st page filled with brutal Oiler related proposals, most seem to be made by Edmonton fans.
WayAbvPar
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Posts: 18556


Reply #41 on: October 16, 2014, 09:46:13 AM

Man I actually watched the 3rd period of that, was up late after my own game. Oilers looked pretty bad, looks like I was too optimistic about them. at least the Isles seem to be somewhat legit

I hope the Islanders make some noise. I really like a lot of their young guys, and they have the best sweaters in the sport. Pity their owner is a world class shitheel.

When speaking of the MMOG industry, the glass may be half full, but it's full of urine. HaemishM

Always wear clean underwear because you never know when a Tory Government is going to fuck you.- Ironwood

Who the hell taught you how to write? Fuck, that sentence is like internet transmitted face-attacking knives. Jesus. schild
Speedy Cerviche
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Reply #42 on: October 16, 2014, 10:21:48 AM

The owner Charles Wang is out. He agreed to sale, just pending league approval. He's going to hang around for a few years, but he's on his way out.
WayAbvPar
Moderator
Posts: 18556


Reply #43 on: October 16, 2014, 11:13:41 AM

I thought I remembered hearing that, but couldn't remember the details. Good news.

When speaking of the MMOG industry, the glass may be half full, but it's full of urine. HaemishM

Always wear clean underwear because you never know when a Tory Government is going to fuck you.- Ironwood

Who the hell taught you how to write? Fuck, that sentence is like internet transmitted face-attacking knives. Jesus. schild
Ceryse
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Posts: 745


Reply #44 on: October 16, 2014, 03:53:35 PM

Sad thing with the Oilers is there is no excuse for it to be this bad. Here's how you fix the Oilers to be a decent team without any trades;

1. Fire Chabot, the goalie coach. This year makes 6 straight years the Oilers have had goalies regress after a summer of training with him.
2. Call up Marincin (likely tomorrow), pair him with Petry.
3. Call up Klefbom, pair him with Fayne.
4. IR Nikitin as his ankle has not healed.
5. Pair Ference with Schultz since neither one can be sat for team politics reasons.
6. Play these pairings accordingly; Marincin/Petry the most even strength minutes, followed by Klefbom/Fayne, and give Ference/Schultz soft opposition/offensive zone start minutes. As of right now, Petry and Fayne, the two best d-men on the team currently are seeing the fewest minutes because Eakins is a certifiable idiot.
7. Tell Scrivens to ignore whatever Chabot told him and start him with beach-balls and go from there.
8. Leave the forwards alone, injuries permitting (i.e., don't put Gadzic into the line-up when he's healthy if possible --  face punchers who can't play should be fired into the sun).

Now, ideally you do make a few trades. Such as moving Ference for a bag of pucks if you can get him to waive the NMC (won't happen, Eakins loves him because he's a fitness nut.. never mind he's the second worst d-man in Edmonton.. it's basically MacT's version of the Khabibulin contract). I'd also trade Schultz; he's got a name people would still trade for. Winning the Schultz lotto was actually one of the worst things to happen to the Oilers because he doesn't give a shit during play and is one of the worst d-men in the league in his own zone.

Anyways..  tonight's bets; not betting a lot tonight, honestly. I've got $50 on the Sens over the Avs, $50 on Stars over Penguins, in regulation, $50 on Kings over Blues, in regulation. I made these bets largely because of the odds I got from my bookie made them worthwhile instead of detailed analysis. I'm up enough on the season (nearly three grand in profit) that these bets are fairly meaningless. Still; I don't like what I've seen from the Avs -- advanced stats coming home to roost and I'd have bet more on that game but the Sens are kinda crap. Stars over Penguins was a pure gut play. Kings over Blues is just a check play in that I needed a third game to get slightly better odds on the Sens/Avs game from my bookie.
Ginaz
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Reply #45 on: October 17, 2014, 06:40:20 AM

New season, same Milan Lucic.  The whiny man child strikes again.  What a bitch.

http://www.cbc.ca/sports/hockey/nhl/milan-lucic-s-gesture-to-habs-fans-in-loss-could-cost-him-1.2802290

I'll pre order you SWTOR if you let me put my lightsaber in your sarlaac cave
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TWb3cxA4g_U&feature=related
Shame Is a component of the Discount - k3b2h3g46c0a
Remember, I live in a world where juggalos and yugioh players are real things. - Schild
Shannow
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Reply #46 on: October 17, 2014, 07:00:34 AM

Odds that Ginaz was going to make that post this morning: 10000%  why so serious?

Lucic has lost his mind or something, shit start to the season.

Someone liked something? Who the fuzzy fuck was this heretic? You don't come to this website and enjoy something. Fuck that. ~ The Walrus
Paelos
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Reply #47 on: October 17, 2014, 08:14:02 AM

Bet the Kings last night, so 3/3 on ceryse's picks now!

CPA, Sports blogger, Mount and Blade enthusiast
Braves by the Numbers, my sports blog
Speedy Cerviche
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Reply #48 on: October 17, 2014, 09:13:54 AM

New season, same Milan Lucic.  The whiny man child strikes again.  What a bitch.

http://www.cbc.ca/sports/hockey/nhl/milan-lucic-s-gesture-to-habs-fans-in-loss-could-cost-him-1.2802290

Boston still at it with this weird nut spear hunting thing too. Marchand spears PK Subban in the jewels (and somehow PK gets a diving call) last night.
Ceryse
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Reply #49 on: October 17, 2014, 01:39:42 PM

Bet the Kings last night, so 3/3 on ceryse's picks now!

You're welcome -- do I get a cut? why so serious?

I'm 14/16 on my bets this season so I'm expecting a long string of getting it wrong any day now; probably starting with tonight as I have $200 on the Oilers to win by 2.

RNH likely to draw back in, Hall is pissed, Marincin back up (although he's with Fayne on the top pairing because Eakins hates Petry -- who's on the third pairing, despite being the best d-man we got) and Scrivens has guaranteed a win, so I think he might stop a beach ball tonight.

It's the only bet I have going tonight as I didn't have the time to work on the other games and I didn't get a gut feeling about any of them.

My losing streak starts tonight because: Oilers!
Paelos
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Reply #50 on: October 17, 2014, 03:00:46 PM

Heh unfortunately a cut of what I actually bet would be about five bucks. I'm not betting in your league.  Oh ho ho ho. Reallllly?

I will stick with the plays. If you want college football ideas, I have done pretty well there. The nfl is a crapshoot.

CPA, Sports blogger, Mount and Blade enthusiast
Braves by the Numbers, my sports blog
Ceryse
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Reply #51 on: October 17, 2014, 05:57:21 PM

I don't follow pansy football. Psht. Four downs? Come on! Pity the CFL is such a joke; it has better rules.

Hockey is the only thing I bet, as it is the only sport I know well enough to bet on. Amusingly, the most profitable bit of the year for me is the World Jrs., I usually clear 5-6 grand each year on them alone, using only 6-7 bets.

My secret? Finland. Sometimes the Swiss. The odds are glorious.

Such a shame you didn't bet big on any of those three, though, eh? Smart, though. I never bet anything I'm not prepared to lose. If I win it is fantastic; if I lose.. well, that's gambling. Most people my bookie deals with don't get that (one of the reasons he likes me, despite the fact I rarely lose more than I win).
Paelos
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Reply #52 on: October 17, 2014, 06:03:43 PM

I don't bet big on anything. I treat bets as reasons to get me to watch stuff I'd never watch.

I will roll over wins tho.

CPA, Sports blogger, Mount and Blade enthusiast
Braves by the Numbers, my sports blog
Ceryse
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Reply #53 on: October 21, 2014, 04:20:16 AM

Oilers win! Plan the parade!

More seriously, however... Oilers have the best 4th line in the NHL right now (I'm dead serious). Gordon, Joenssu and Hendricks have been getting 90%ish d-zone starts (the rest of their starts have all been just outside the Oil blue line) against heavy competition (guys like Stamkos, the Sedins, etc.) and have not only been shutting them down, but have been corsi warlocks in addition to often getting the play out of the zone and into the offensive zone. Just amazing. Can't last, of course, as it is almost Herculean what they are doing.

Also, god damn the Oiler D are so much better now that Marincin isn't rotting away in the minors and Petry is getting more ice time. Marincin goes from being in exile to top pairing and is killing it (so far). It does help the D look better when Scrivens has a good game, though, but Bishop was the better of the two and kept his team in it.

Paelos
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Reply #54 on: October 21, 2014, 05:30:14 AM

Thoughts on Dallas beating Vancouver tonight?

CPA, Sports blogger, Mount and Blade enthusiast
Braves by the Numbers, my sports blog
Ceryse
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Reply #55 on: October 21, 2014, 09:28:30 AM

I have Dallas over Vancouver, in regulation. I want to say something like a 3-2 score. I don't see Vancouver being able to contain Seguin and Benn well enough and think Miller is going to have an iffy game (his first of the year against a non-shit team). The Sedins (who are being properly used once more; lower ice time and heavy emphasis on o-zone starts) being the main reason Vancouver can keep it close and maybe pull out an upset but think the Stars will shut them down enough 5v5 that unless the Stars get into penalty trouble there just won't be enough scoring depth for Vancouver tonight.

Other than that game the only bets I've made for tonight;

Isles over Leafs, by 2 and Sharks over Bruins, regulation. Almost made another couple bets, but the odds were horrible. I may take a last minute flyer on Panthers verse Avs,, but not quite sold on it yet. If I do it'll be a simple win bet.

Tomorrow I have Sens over Leafs in regulation, Oilers by 2 over Capitals, and Flyers over Penguins in regulation (just a $25 bet between myself and a co-worker as a lark on the Flyer game).
WayAbvPar
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Posts: 18556


Reply #56 on: October 21, 2014, 09:29:51 AM

I think you would do just fine betting against the Leafs every chance you get. It is also very easy to root against them  Oh ho ho ho. Reallllly?

When speaking of the MMOG industry, the glass may be half full, but it's full of urine. HaemishM

Always wear clean underwear because you never know when a Tory Government is going to fuck you.- Ironwood

Who the hell taught you how to write? Fuck, that sentence is like internet transmitted face-attacking knives. Jesus. schild
Speedy Cerviche
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Reply #57 on: October 21, 2014, 10:20:05 AM

I really dislike predicting individual hockey games, it's such a sport of who shows up + bounces just look at TBL vs EDM last night..

I guess you can make money if you consistently bet on a team you know is going to be way over .500 like Chicago and against a really bad one like the Sabres or Oilers but I guess that's just not my idea of fun.

I do like wagering on 7 game playoff series though, the bounce factor is mitigated by the duration and you know both teams are giving it 100% so you can sit down and seriously analyse the match up better.
Ceryse
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Reply #58 on: October 21, 2014, 01:09:13 PM

I really dislike predicting individual hockey games, it's such a sport of who shows up + bounces just look at TBL vs EDM last night..

I guess you can make money if you consistently bet on a team you know is going to be way over .500 like Chicago and against a really bad one like the Sabres or Oilers but I guess that's just not my idea of fun.

I do like wagering on 7 game playoff series though, the bounce factor is mitigated by the duration and you know both teams are giving it 100% so you can sit down and seriously analyse the match up better.

Not really. Betting consistently on a team like Chicago will make you money, but unless you are constantly betting large sums on them winning the margin simply isn't there. The money comes from betting on a team that is playing better than their results; i.e., Edmonton last night. I had fantastic odds because of how poorly the Oilers had been doing, but because of line up changes and advanced stats you could tell the Oilers were due for a bit of a break the other way, especially given Tampa being an Eastern Conference team (Oilers are generally above .500 against Eastern teams, hell even last year, as shitty as they were, they were 14-14-4 or so against the East.. because the East is just that much weaker).

While bounces are a factor they, like luck in general, are something that evens up over time so it is less of a factor for a regular gambler than one who just dabbles (and to be fair, there's been some advanced stat work that shows that outside of one or two game swings, luck usually balances out within games). Honestly, the bigger question mark in betting on individual games in hockey is the voodoo that is goaltending. Outside of a few exceptions, goaltending is the hardest thing to predict, especially the longer your sample runs.

As for "who shows up".. that's actually something you can track to a degree. There isn't a fancy stat for it, but after you watch enough games you get a feel for which players have a tendency to float and what triggers it. For some, against physical teams they are more likely to not show up. Others have travel as the big indicator, or back to backs.

As for playoffs.. good money there, but that is more because of the number of people betting can swing the odds. Betting on a favourite, while smart, isn't often worth it because the odds are shit. Betting against a favourite with clear problems (Pittsburgh!) is a cash cow, however, even if that favourite takes the series. Their series against the Isles, for example, two years ago (I think that's when it was) was a gold mine for me, because while the Pens won the series (barely), by betting a grand for the Isles to win in each and every game put me miles ahead, even being wrong four times, because of the odds on those Isle victories.

I mean, maybe it is a bit different when you bet through the professional (and legal) services, but through a bookie there are a number of times when I'll pass on betting on entire series because the odds and payoff simply aren't there (Kings vs. Blues, as an example.. right or wrong the payout was utter shit).

World Jrs., however.. always worth it, because you have clear favourites every year and nationalism blinds a lot of people. Finland and the Swiss for life; perpetual under-dogs in the odds and can often upset just enough times to make payouts amazing (especially the Fins, who often don't get their due from NA odds-makers even when they are medal contenders).
Paelos
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Reply #59 on: October 22, 2014, 06:44:45 AM

Dallas was a winner.

I'm leaning towards the Capitals tonight to win.

CPA, Sports blogger, Mount and Blade enthusiast
Braves by the Numbers, my sports blog
Ceryse
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Reply #60 on: October 22, 2014, 07:12:31 AM

Until the third, the Canucks were making the Oilers look good by comparison. Such horrendous defensive zone play and goaltending.

Lost on my Isles and Shark bets, which was unfortunate. Glad I ended up going for a win bet on Florida, but only reason I only lost a bit on the night was the Stars game. Still have Oilers by 2 against the Caps (Oilers are looking a bit better and the Caps don't have the goaltending/defensive zone play to keep the Hall line in check and I'm banking on Scrivens and Fayne/Marincin to keep Ovie from blowing it wide open). Also, Sens over Leafs in regulation. Smaller bet, but should do well due to the Leafs having to play back to back and I don't see Kessel forcing them to win again in that situation.

We'll see who's right about tonight, though, Paelos!

Paelos
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Reply #61 on: October 23, 2014, 05:56:52 AM

Oilers did pull it out. Not by 2 though. Bah!

CPA, Sports blogger, Mount and Blade enthusiast
Braves by the Numbers, my sports blog
Ceryse
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Reply #62 on: October 23, 2014, 06:56:23 AM

Oilers did pull it out. Not by 2 though. Bah!

I know, right? All I was asking for was an empty netter at the end!

Still, Oilers got the win, even after a horrific third period and almost completely shut down Ovie. Unfortunately, Marincin blocked a shot near the end and might be hurt, Eberle seems to be playing hurt, Nikitin is playing hurt and Ference is playing and Gadzic is likely to reurn to the line up soon and get onto the fourth line and destroy it. Horrible.
Paelos
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Reply #63 on: October 23, 2014, 11:50:58 AM

I like Calgary tonight.

CPA, Sports blogger, Mount and Blade enthusiast
Braves by the Numbers, my sports blog
murdoc
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Reply #64 on: October 23, 2014, 02:14:30 PM

I like Calgary tonight.

Tonight is as good a night as any to bet on the Flames., they shouldn't be outworked by Carolina and have better goaltending.

Having said that I apologize in advance of them getting blown out because I voiced a sports opinion which seems to be the norm for me lately.

Have you tried the internet? It's made out of millions of people missing the point of everything and then getting angry about it
Paelos
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Posts: 26562

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Reply #65 on: October 23, 2014, 04:36:14 PM

I don't mind taking shots as I'm working off very little but gut instinct and valuation bets.

CPA, Sports blogger, Mount and Blade enthusiast
Braves by the Numbers, my sports blog
Strazos
Greetings from the Slave Coast
Posts: 15214

Trading Cotton for Chalupas in 2014!


Reply #66 on: October 23, 2014, 07:40:35 PM

Did anyone bet that PIT/PHI match?

Would have been a great match to pile the cash on PHI. Apparently their record vs PIT is pretty good over the past few years, and almost obnoxious in PIT's new building.

EDIT: 14-7-0 since the beginning of '11-'12 vs PIT, 11-1-1 at Consol Energy Center during the regular season. Nutso.
« Last Edit: October 23, 2014, 09:59:39 PM by Strazos »

Fear the Backstab!
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"Hell is other people." -Sartre
Speedy Cerviche
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Reply #67 on: October 24, 2014, 07:43:34 AM

A lot of trade rumors flying around the Oilers especially Eberle & Yakupov. What is the word out in Edmonton?

We're hearing the Habs are interested but probably wouldn't be offering more than Eller & a young D man (Beaulieu or Tinordi). They aren't going to break off more veteran players from a successful playoff team for an unproven young winger.
Paelos
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Posts: 26562

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Reply #68 on: October 24, 2014, 08:03:04 AM

I like Calgary tonight.

Tonight is as good a night as any to bet on the Flames., they shouldn't be outworked by Carolina and have better goaltending.

Having said that I apologize in advance of them getting blown out because I voiced a sports opinion which seems to be the norm for me lately.

Nah they won 5-0 so it was a good pick. Tonight I like Vancouver.

CPA, Sports blogger, Mount and Blade enthusiast
Braves by the Numbers, my sports blog
Phildo
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Reply #69 on: October 24, 2014, 08:16:28 AM

Pittsburgh just can't beat the Flyers lately.  It seems like they just get under the Penguins' skin too easily.
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