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Author Topic: NHL 2014-2015  (Read 20022 times)
Speedy Cerviche
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Posts: 2397


on: October 07, 2014, 09:17:03 AM

Hockey back!

Some random thoughs:

For long suffering Ceryse, I actually think Edmonton will crawl out of the basement this year. I don't know if to a playoff spot, but in the hunt. I still think their management is retarded (that Pouliot contract...), but they have managed to finally assemble a competent enough vet backed D corps. Also starting the season with a good goalie. The Islanders should have a good year too, basically have done the same thing. Tne Metro division is going to be very tight, the Pens should still win it (too good of a regular season team), but you will have 4 other spots up for grabners. I think everyone but the Canes will be in that mix.

Atlantic division, I think Boston will fall down a bit off their great regular season. Between losing Iginla & Boychuck, plus the vets being a bit older, doubt Tuuka can put up that Vezina %. All these little hits add up to I don't think they will run away with the Presidents trophy. They'll still challenge for 1st but not a lock. Tampa is being hyped as the team of the hour, but I am very skeptical of Bishop's health. His body fell apart last season after they road him way too hard, I don't think he's ready to get back to heavy trucking. Also we'll find out how much the loss of Marty St Louis cuts, I think it's being underrated, he really is a unique, phenominal player. Really dig Montreal's changes on D, nice rebalancing. No more Murray & Bouillon, both should have retired 2 years ago. So the 3rd pairing is better with Weaver + Rookie (Beaulieau starting) Changing Gorges for Gilbert adds better speed & playmaking, and balances the LD/RD. Emelin was really struggling on his off-side. Bit of homerism but I think they take the division. I think Florida improved, Luongo is still a legit goalie, good pickup with Bolland, they should be in the hunt. Out of it will Toronto, they are just so awful top to bottom besides that 1st line. Bernier won't be as good to save them.

Western conf I don't follow as closely but the top 8 seem pretty good still and will be very tough to dethrone...I like Vancouver acquiring Miller, and Sedins/Burrows should bounce back. I also like Nashville, great blueline, Rinne back. I also mentioned Edmonton improving, Phoenix is solid... but all these teams carry flaws, usually in offensive depth, and knocking off one of the current top 8 is no easy feat especially the way Dallas improved. Maybe Minnesota is in trouble with their goaltending issues.
WayAbvPar
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Posts: 18592


Reply #1 on: October 07, 2014, 10:01:46 AM

I expect nothing from the Canucks, so if they can cobble together some sort of decent season it will be a nice surprise. I do think the new coach will help. I actually like Torts, but he was absolutely the wrong fit for that team. I just don't know where the secondary scoring is going to come from. Miller will have to have an MVP season to make them a contender unless some of the young kids break out in a big way.

I will still watch basically every game though.

When speaking of the MMOG industry, the glass may be half full, but it's full of urine. HaemishM

Always wear clean underwear because you never know when a Tory Government is going to fuck you.- Ironwood

Who the hell taught you how to write? Fuck, that sentence is like internet transmitted face-attacking knives. Jesus. schild
Fordel
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Reply #2 on: October 07, 2014, 01:59:55 PM

Toronto bought up like every hockey stats numbers guy on the interwebs, apparently they are finally going to pay attention to that now. Almost like they've predicted Toronto's utter collapse every year for the past decade or whatever.  why so serious?

Also expect the coach and GM to be fired before the new year.


Otherwise it will be business as usual, plan the parade to celebrate that 9th place spot.

and the gate is like I TOO AM CAPABLE OF SPEECH
WayAbvPar
Moderator
Posts: 18592


Reply #3 on: October 07, 2014, 03:47:25 PM

They can get all the advice in the world, but when the coach is too fucking stupid/stubborn/ignorant to use it, what difference does it make?

When speaking of the MMOG industry, the glass may be half full, but it's full of urine. HaemishM

Always wear clean underwear because you never know when a Tory Government is going to fuck you.- Ironwood

Who the hell taught you how to write? Fuck, that sentence is like internet transmitted face-attacking knives. Jesus. schild
Fordel
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Posts: 8292


Reply #4 on: October 07, 2014, 04:58:47 PM

Baby steps, at least they acknowledge it finally.  why so serious?

and the gate is like I TOO AM CAPABLE OF SPEECH
Speedy Cerviche
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Posts: 2397


Reply #5 on: October 07, 2014, 08:32:45 PM

They were still giving up like 40 shots against per game in the pre-season, not much has changed. Any regression from Bernier's .930 the first half of last season will be painful (like it was in 2nd half). Just something wrong to the core with that team, they just can't play any kind of D system properly...
Strazos
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Posts: 15243

Trading Cotton for Chalupas in 2014!


Reply #6 on: October 07, 2014, 10:00:25 PM

Flyers are going to be mediocre at best - with Timonen done, their defense has regressed. I'm expecting a lot of blown leads late in games and pond hockey because loldefense.

I cannot wait for some of their prospects to mature a bit - for once they'll have a strong home-grown defense, for the first time in at least 20 years.

Fear the Backstab!
"Plato said the virtuous man is at all times ready for a grammar snake attack." - we are lesion
"Hell is other people." -Sartre
Fordel
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Posts: 8292


Reply #7 on: October 08, 2014, 01:13:07 AM

They were still giving up like 40 shots against per game in the pre-season, not much has changed. Any regression from Bernier's .930 the first half of last season will be painful (like it was in 2nd half). Just something wrong to the core with that team, they just can't play any kind of D system properly...
Yes, the organization is fundamentally broken, from the ground up. Has been for years and years now.

They literally set up their defensive system to do the exact opposite of what all the stats (and common sense) show you should do. I don't know if they are still using it this year (I don't watch the preseason), but previous years their goal was to allow as many shots as the opposing team wanted, as long as they were 'low quality' shots. While the Leafs themselves would wait for the proper opportunity to counter attack with a 'high quality' scoring chance. Their whole plan was let the other team tire itself out by shooting too much and then using that window to get their own offense going.


Results speak for themselves in how effective this genius plan was.  Ohhhhh, I see.



and the gate is like I TOO AM CAPABLE OF SPEECH
Speedy Cerviche
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Posts: 2397


Reply #8 on: October 08, 2014, 07:32:51 AM

Flyers are going to be mediocre at best - with Timonen done, their defense has regressed. I'm expecting a lot of blown leads late in games and pond hockey because loldefense.

I cannot wait for some of their prospects to mature a bit - for once they'll have a strong home-grown defense, for the first time in at least 20 years.

At least Giroux should be fun to watch... Looks like he will crack 100 pts this season if him & the team don't have that weird season starting slump again.
Ceryse
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Reply #9 on: October 08, 2014, 05:02:05 PM

Oh, boy... hockey.

The Oilers should improve this year (I have them pegged for ~87 points, in 9th or 10th spot -- but having meaningful games past November would be an improvement...) and the Pouliot contract isn't as bad as you, and others, claim, not with the inflation in contracts. Then again, people actually blame the Oilers for inflating contracts around the league using Hall's contract as an example (Hall's contract being one of the best in the league, but whatever). The off-season acquisitions were pretty solid, including the assistant coach and Dellow (who did some fantastic work ups last year on how the Oilers were fucking the dog in player usage and strategies). That said... starting the year by dropping one of your top 4 d-men (Marincin) to the minors so you could give time to Nurse and Klefbom (neither of which is as good as Marincin is right now, though Nurse will be better in another year or two, and Klefbom is more chaotic, especially defensively and has an injury history a mile long) is par for the course in Edmonton. Should have been Klefbom sent down with Nurse staying up for his nine games.. or however many until Nikitin is back.

Of course, the Oilers will just trade Petry and Marincin soon enough so it doesn't matter.

As for the rest of the West;

Kings, Blackhawks, Blues will rule again. I expect good years from the Stars and Anaheim, as well (though I think Anaheim will drop off a little from last season and Dallas will be improved -- and I'll actually be watching a lot of their games this year). I think the Sharks will drop a fair bit.. possibly even into wild card or 9th spot due to goaltending, losing Boyle and egos over the whole 'get rid of people' angle from management.

Canucks will suck. Another year older for the Sedins, new coach (albeit one that should be a better fit than Torts) one of the most over-rated goalies in the league (Miller is an average starter if you go by his NHL stats -- and I think he's on the decline) and they remain one of the most dirty, asshole-ish teams in sports. I mean, hell, they were pricks to the Oilers in a pre-season game! That's like kicking a dying dog because it licked you. Yes, I'm biased. Still, I doubt the Canucks do well this year.

Arizona could improve a bit, but who knows with them. Gagner should be a good addition there considering they're already going to do what the Oilers should have done five years ago and put him on the wing. Don't see them making the playoffs.

Biggest drop in performance will come from the Avalanche, though. Advanced stats showed them to be a dog-shit team last year bailed out by Vezina-level goaltending. Won't happen this year and they'll suffer for their attitude towards shot generation. Wildcard team at best.

I think it'll break down similar to this;

1. Chicago
2. St. Louis
3. L.A.
4. Anaheim
5. Dallas
6. Minnesota
7. San Jose
8. Colorado
9. Edmonton
10. Arizona
11. Winnipeg
12. Vancouver
13. Nashville
14. Calgary
Shannow
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Reply #10 on: October 09, 2014, 04:39:38 AM

Woot hockey's back baby!

I see the Maples Leafs will suck talk is starting early this year. Always good to see.

Now how long before Ginaz starts bitching about the Bruins. :D

Honestly don't know how good the Bs will be this year.  They'll make the playoffs but can they win multiple rounds? Not enuf scoring options up front. Defense is a little light behind the first pairing.  Carl Sodeberg is a beast though.

Game on!

Someone liked something? Who the fuzzy fuck was this heretic? You don't come to this website and enjoy something. Fuck that. ~ The Walrus
Paelos
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Reply #11 on: October 09, 2014, 05:57:10 AM

Dallas wins the Cup this year!  why so serious?

CPA, Sports blogger, Mount and Blade enthusiast
Braves by the Numbers, my sports blog
Speedy Cerviche
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Reply #12 on: October 09, 2014, 06:41:39 AM

I don't think the Oilers scouted Pouliot at all. There was a reason he bounced through 5 eastern teams in 5 years, on 1 year, 1 million $ contracts. He played decently in the playoffs for the Rags (which is what the Oilers brain trust saw), this is the occasional brilliance he shows, and why he was a top pick, but 80% of the time he's dogshit, just a dumb loafer, and why so many teams passed on offering him even 1 million $ after getting a long look. Anyway, don't take my word for it, you're going to see soon enough like they did in 5 other cities, he is a very flawed, frustrating player.
Bunk
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Reply #13 on: October 09, 2014, 07:57:02 AM

Canucks' most realistic hope for the playoffs is that San Jose doesn't improve. If San Jose has a bad year, Vancouver could still finish third in the Pacific.  Finishing fourth probably won't get anyone in to the playoffs though with the strength of the Central.

Vancouver should be a little better than last year - Torts was a total disaster. I'm not sold on Miller, but Lack is an above average backup, so we may be ok. Defensive depth on the team is scary bad, and secondary scoring is always a worry. I actually think the Sedins are going to bounce back well - Vrbata looks like a good fit for them.

Watching them last night against Calgary - sloppy as hell. Those kind of giveaways would have buried them if they hadn't been playing an AHL team. Burrows scored though, which is good. Put him about 30 games ahead of his scoring pace last year.

Ceryse:  awesome, for real I wish Edmonton well, but picking them ahead of Arizona and Nashville? Don't see it. Their defense looks a little better with some veterans added, but I don't think anyone outside of Schulz even knows where the offensive end of the rink is.

"Welcome to the internet, pussy." - VDL
"I have retard strength." - Schild
WayAbvPar
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Reply #14 on: October 09, 2014, 09:47:08 AM

I picked Burr as the first scorer of the year on Twitter... should be in the running for a signed puck  Oh ho ho ho. Reallllly?

Agreed on the giveaways. If Edler ever pulls his head out of his ass he might be worth his contract. He is so gifted, but such a fucking dunce. At least they can still beat the Flames!

When speaking of the MMOG industry, the glass may be half full, but it's full of urine. HaemishM

Always wear clean underwear because you never know when a Tory Government is going to fuck you.- Ironwood

Who the hell taught you how to write? Fuck, that sentence is like internet transmitted face-attacking knives. Jesus. schild
Speedy Cerviche
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Reply #15 on: October 09, 2014, 10:11:04 AM

Vancouver should be a little better than last year - Torts was a total disaster. I'm not sold on Miller, but Lack is an above average backup, so we may be ok. Defensive depth on the team is scary bad, and secondary scoring is always a worry. I actually think the Sedins are going to bounce back well - Vrbata looks like a good fit for them.

They will be happy with Miller, he actually was really good in Buffalo last year despite the horrible team, he was the one guy who wasn't the problem and their few wins were usually the result of him stealing games. In St. Louis it didn't work out, just never fit for some reason, hard to explain really, I guess he was never comfortable which is actually a big deal for NHL goalies when you are facing such great shooters, they really walk a tightrope of focus that makes or breaks them. I think, starting the season, coming in as a free agent, Vancouver will get the real all-star quality vintage Miller and can put the goaltending debacle of the past few years behind them.
Ceryse
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Reply #16 on: October 09, 2014, 10:48:50 AM

Ceryse:  awesome, for real I wish Edmonton well, but picking them ahead of Arizona and Nashville? Don't see it. Their defense looks a little better with some veterans added, but I don't think anyone outside of Schulz even knows where the offensive end of the rink is.

Nashville is an odd team. I almost didn't know where to put them because they can be a decent, middling 8-12 team.. or an out-right bottom feeder. I'm a fan of Rinne but he hasn't looked the same since the health issues. The rest of the team just doesn't seem to have a lot of chemistry, imo. I don't see them doing well.

Arizona.. see above without the bottom-feeder part. Arizona is a team that is seemingly always close, but not quite there. I can easily see them in 8th-9th instead of the Oilers, but my bias won out.
Speedy Cerviche
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Posts: 2397


Reply #17 on: October 09, 2014, 11:32:54 AM

The Preds & Yotes have such a great defensive culture, and solid goaltending really makes them tough to play against so they hang in there. They just don't have the offensive pop to power into the playoffs. That is why I would agree with Ceryse that if the Oilers can really improve their D this year with the addition of vets + a goalie, they have the offensive potential to put them over those teams. It's still kind of a longshot, but they have a decent chance of starting to realize that potential this year.
murdoc
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Reply #18 on: October 10, 2014, 07:34:17 AM



That's some good PK, Edmonton.

Also, this: https://twitter.com/Jeffler/status/520441156073955330

Flames are going to be awful this year. We know the Flames are going to be awful and only hope it's awful enough to have a chance at McDavid. For the first time, the prospect cupboard isn't bare here and there's some legit talent up and coming. It's going to take 2-3 years, but the Flames will get better.

Have you tried the internet? It's made out of millions of people missing the point of everything and then getting angry about it
Ceryse
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Reply #19 on: October 10, 2014, 08:09:43 AM

Irony is, until that moment the PK had been good. At that point it no longer mattered. Oilers dominated 35 of the first 40 minutes and couldn't buy an even strength goal. Then, after the 3rd Calgary goal Edmonton deflated like only Edmonton can.

But hey, when your second best d-man is in the minors because the coach and gm have hard-ons for two guys who haven't shown they can play in the defensive zone.. you kinda get what you deserve.
Bunk
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Operating Thetan One


Reply #20 on: October 10, 2014, 01:40:36 PM

Was a really good post game interview from Eakens after that game where he basically refused to put his team down because they played a really good game - they just didn't win.

"Welcome to the internet, pussy." - VDL
"I have retard strength." - Schild
Fordel
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Posts: 8292


Reply #21 on: October 10, 2014, 03:07:05 PM

Woot hockey's back baby!

I see the Maples Leafs will suck talk is starting early this year. Always good to see.

Now how long before Ginaz starts bitching about the Bruins. :D

Honestly don't know how good the Bs will be this year.  They'll make the playoffs but can they win multiple rounds? Not enuf scoring options up front. Defense is a little light behind the first pairing.  Carl Sodeberg is a beast though.

Game on!


In which way is this early! It's started the same time every year! When the season started.  why so serious?

and the gate is like I TOO AM CAPABLE OF SPEECH
Ceryse
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Posts: 753


Reply #22 on: October 12, 2014, 03:27:56 AM

All I'm going to say is; Refs 1, Oilers 0. Between the refs and Oilers coaching staff, the Canucks got handed the game.
Ceryse
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Reply #23 on: October 14, 2014, 01:35:48 PM

Anyone into betting should be putting a lot of money on the Kings tonight;

RNH out, Eberle out.

Petry (Oiler's best d-man) healthy scratched (because he's not "up to speed" due to missing training camp, and yet has been, by far, the best d-man so far, and they couldn't "afford" to sit Hunt because of the powerplay...)

So, you have the Oilers without two star forwards, playing two more rookies tonight (Nurse, Yakimov), and without their best two defensemen (Petry, Marincin).

Looks like Eakins needs to be fired. Never should have been hired, honestly, but, y'know; "Oilers".
WayAbvPar
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Posts: 18592


Reply #24 on: October 14, 2014, 02:10:01 PM

Any idea why the Canucks are going 6 days between their 2nd and 3rd games of the season? It is the same as an early bye in the NFL- too early in the season to be useful for nursing guys back to health,  and just makes the rest of the season more compact and shitty. They already have a fucking hideous travel schedule- the NHL couldn't find a midweek game for them? Clownshoes.

When speaking of the MMOG industry, the glass may be half full, but it's full of urine. HaemishM

Always wear clean underwear because you never know when a Tory Government is going to fuck you.- Ironwood

Who the hell taught you how to write? Fuck, that sentence is like internet transmitted face-attacking knives. Jesus. schild
Ceryse
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Posts: 753


Reply #25 on: October 14, 2014, 02:16:14 PM

Any idea why the Canucks are going 6 days between their 2nd and 3rd games of the season? It is the same as an early bye in the NFL- too early in the season to be useful for nursing guys back to health,  and just makes the rest of the season more compact and shitty. They already have a fucking hideous travel schedule- the NHL couldn't find a midweek game for them? Clownshoes.

Ugh. Don't get me started on the NHL schedule.

It's absolute clown-shoes all around, and given the NHL that's saying something.
Paelos
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Reply #26 on: October 14, 2014, 02:43:58 PM

Anyone into betting should be putting a lot of money on the Kings tonight;

Put $5 on it -1.5 goals. Here's hoping you're right and it's an asswhipping!

CPA, Sports blogger, Mount and Blade enthusiast
Braves by the Numbers, my sports blog
Ceryse
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Reply #27 on: October 14, 2014, 03:32:30 PM

Put $5 on it -1.5 goals. Here's hoping you're right and it's an asswhipping!

I have $500 on the Kings.

So, Oilers will somehow win, and stick with the line-up because you don't change anything after a win.
Paelos
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Posts: 26579

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Reply #28 on: October 14, 2014, 03:39:01 PM

Haha well good luck to you! You're betting more than my entire bankroll for the month.

CPA, Sports blogger, Mount and Blade enthusiast
Braves by the Numbers, my sports blog
Ceryse
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Posts: 753


Reply #29 on: October 14, 2014, 05:50:28 PM

Haha well good luck to you! You're betting more than my entire bankroll for the month.

NHL betting is actually a substantial part of my yearly income and at minimal serious risk. I start every season with $1,000 as my betting budget and from any winnings I take 25% out and put it aside for retirement; the rest gets put back into my betting pool. Were I to lose my entire betting stake I'm done for the year, but it hasn't happened yet. To be honest, though, I use a bookie instead of an actual professional (and legal) betting service. I get better returns and more flexible win conditions.
Paelos
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Posts: 26579

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Reply #30 on: October 15, 2014, 06:11:31 AM

Well you were right on this one. If you have more tips as we go along through the year, I'd be happy to hear them!

CPA, Sports blogger, Mount and Blade enthusiast
Braves by the Numbers, my sports blog
murdoc
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Reply #31 on: October 15, 2014, 06:26:14 AM

I know it probably won't happen all year, but watching the Oilers flounder to start the season warms this Calgarians heart. I am a child of the 80s when the Battle of Alberta was an actual thing and that hatred runs deep.

Have you tried the internet? It's made out of millions of people missing the point of everything and then getting angry about it
Ceryse
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Posts: 753


Reply #32 on: October 15, 2014, 09:27:31 AM

I know it probably won't happen all year, but watching the Oilers flounder to start the season warms this Calgarians heart. I am a child of the 80s when the Battle of Alberta was an actual thing and that hatred runs deep.

Hah. The way Eakins is going it may last longer than you think. Interestingly enough, here in Edmonton Calgary isn't seen as the primary enemy anymore when it comes to sports; it's Vancouver. The hate for the Canucks supersedes the hate for the Flames. In part that is because there is some respect for the Flames due to how their team is blue-collar in its work ethic (and just having a work ethic makes them better than the Oilers...) even though Burke is very much hated around here.

Still, I actually agree with you in that I'm pleased to see the Oilers flounder and they're my team. Management needs to realize that to win you should actually do something revolutionary; ice your best line up and stop playing favourites with Mr. Norris Trophy, The Captain, and Mr. Powerplay.

Paelos; we'll see. Most of my tips are common sense. I just use a combination of common sense and advanced stats. I.e.; I bet on Colorado getting waxed against Minny in both games.. a pair of games that gave me very good odds on that happening, so I made out like a bandit. I expect most of my winnings this year will come from the Oilers, Avs, Canucks and Dallas. Mostly betting against the first three, especially depending on the odds I can get from my bookie.

Note; if I ever give you a tip about an all Eastern conference game? Ignore it. I'm not nearly as good at getting those right as that conference is just so.. different than the West, and I don't follow it nearly as closely.
murdoc
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Reply #33 on: October 15, 2014, 10:34:13 AM

To be fair, everyone hates the Canucks.

Have you tried the internet? It's made out of millions of people missing the point of everything and then getting angry about it
Paelos
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Posts: 26579

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Reply #34 on: October 15, 2014, 10:47:14 AM

Paelos; we'll see. Most of my tips are common sense. I just use a combination of common sense and advanced stats. I.e.; I bet on Colorado getting waxed against Minny in both games.. a pair of games that gave me very good odds on that happening, so I made out like a bandit. I expect most of my winnings this year will come from the Oilers, Avs, Canucks and Dallas. Mostly betting against the first three, especially depending on the odds I can get from my bookie.

Note; if I ever give you a tip about an all Eastern conference game? Ignore it. I'm not nearly as good at getting those right as that conference is just so.. different than the West, and I don't follow it nearly as closely.

Hey I'm all ears. It's a good reason for me to watch hockey I otherwise wouldn't give a shit about.

CPA, Sports blogger, Mount and Blade enthusiast
Braves by the Numbers, my sports blog
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