NFL 2014

[Tannhauser]

The Titans one wasn't funny at all.  It was terrifyingly accurate.

[Paelos]

Also surprised no one commented on the Deadspin story on Jerry Jones getting his freak on with two chicks in a restroom pictures. Of course, just thinking about it makes my Little Mr. Happy shrink back into my body like a frightened turtle so...

Yeah I wrote Drew for my take on the Cowboys. We'll see if he wants to print any of it. If not I'll just post it here after he does the Cowboys article.

[Ginaz]

Deadspin is doing the "Why Your Team Sucks" articles again.

http://deadspin.com/tag/why-your-team-sucks

I think some of them are hilarious. Only 3 out so far, but I think the Texans one is the best.

"The Texans are the Juggalos of the NFL. We all like each other but everyone else wonders what the fuck we're doing with our lives dedicating it to something so stupid."

[Cyrrex]

I find my interest in the NFL at an all-time low this pre-season. Not sure why.

Because you know this season is going to be a shit show of unclear, inconsistent officiating trying to enforce idiotic pass interference rules that favor high-powered offenses, something they will drop completely for the playoffs so teams like the Seahawks can play actual defense and win the Super Bowl again? 

Works for me!

Me too.  I find it kind of funny that a lot of people actually level complaints that Seahawks get away with a lot of shit (which I think is misleading...they actually get called for a lot of shit too), when we should all be lamenting the fact that the league is even trying to shut down good defensive play in the first place.  The rules are already stacked against the defense as it is.  A better strategy would be for us to complain about the offensively biased rules.

[Paelos]

I don't think the Seahawks get away with a ton. They've just done something the NFL hates, win with defense and a great running game. That's the exact opposite of what the NFL is trying to cram down our throats. Which really tells you a lot about the NFL. They are trying to control the way the game is played, rather than let the teams decide how to play the game. That's one of the things that will hurt the NFL long term, because manipulating your own product for selfish reasons eventually hits a breaking point with fans. It's already starting.

Ten years ago the idea of 14 point spreads in the NFL was laughable. Now? It's a regular occurrence. Look at last year's scoring. The highest scoring team put up 600 points, the entire league scored just shy of 12,000 points total. The gap between high and low 359 points. That's the spread from best to worst.

Go back just 5 years to 2009. They scored 1,000 less total points just 5 years ago. That's almost a 9% increase in scoring in just 5 years across the board. Not to mention the gap was only 335 back then, almost 25 points closer. The average is 31 points per team higher in 2013 than it was in 2009.

Basically every single team in the league is scoring an extra 4 touchdowns and a field goal every season. That's not just scheme. That's all because of rule changes. Because wait, it gets even better.

The year before the illegal contact rule came into place was 2003. Total points scored was 10666, average of 333 a team which is ten points lower than 2009. But here's the kicker: Everyone was a lot closer. The high-low gap in 2003 was only 259 points. That's 100 points less than last year. One hundred points.

The medians for each year? 312 points in 2003, 351 points in 2009, and a whopping 379 points in 2013. It's absurd.

[Nebu]

I don't think the Seahawks get away with a ton. They've just done something the NFL hates, win with defense and a great running game. That's the exact opposite of what the NFL is trying to cram down our throats. Which really tells you a lot about the NFL. They are trying to control the way the game is played, rather than let the teams decide how to play the game. That's one of the things that will hurt the NFL long term, because manipulating your own product for selfish reasons eventually hits a breaking point with fans. It's already starting.

Let's be clear.  The NFL doesn't hate defensive teams, the fans do.  For being the most popular sport in America, it's surprising just how little fans know about the game.  They want high scores and lots of offense.  I guess it's no different from baseball.  I took a date to a game once and the pitcher threw a no hitter.  My date claimed it was the most boring game she had ever been to. 

[HaemishM]

See, I was one of those who advocated for more pass interference after the Colts got mauled in that playoff snow game up in New England years back (2003?). It really was fucking ridiculous what was done in that game that wasn't called. I wasn't advocating for a whole new class of penalty (illegal contact), I just wanted the fucking refs to actually call pass interference as it was written in the rules. Had they done that, we wouldn't be here now. Good defenses should be able to be good without fucking mugging a receiver on the field. The NFL has gone so completely the other way though. Breathe on a receiver and it's a penalty... unless it's the playoffs, because apparently the NFL is taking cues from the NHL when it comes to "let them play when everyone is watching." That Super Bowl mauling by the Seahawks? If that's week 8, it's a lot closer of a game, because the Hawks get called for more penalties. And I'm not saying they played dirty or too rough at all. I'm saying the officials just let shit go that in the regular season with a smaller audience, they'd have been calling.

What's been worse than how much they call fouls against the defense is how LITTLE they call offensive pass interference. I mean, the wideouts of today can just about get away with fucking murder and not get called, especially if the pass is incomplete anyway. That's what's really killing defenses - cornerbacks can't even glance at the wideout without a flag while getting the shit beat out of them in return.

[Nebu]

I don't know why anyone would want more pass interference calls.  I'm sorry, but offense already has a HUGE fucking advantage on the field.  Giving them an even greater advantage makes it nearly impossible for DB's to do their job.  The game is incredibly fast.  The difference between an open receiver and a covered receiver is often determined by a 0.1 s decision.

The only reason I can see value in this change is to protect the health of high dollar players.  That's a business decision. 

[Paelos]

Here's the thing, fans think they want more offense until they get the arena league. Then all of a sudden they stop watching regular season games.

Do you remember how many garbage games there were last season? How huge the gap was between the functional the the non-functional teams? Allow me to remind you.

6 Teams in 2013 had 4 wins or less. That's up from 5 in 2012, 2011, 2009. Then 4 in 2010. In fact we haven't had 6 teams go 4 wins or less since 2008 when Detroit pulled the magical 0-16 season.

Week to week the schedule had terrible national matchups. I picked on at random, Week 10. Washington played Minnesota on Thursday. Those teams were 2-7 and 3-6. The Monday night game was Tampa and Miami, a 4-5 and 1-8 epic matchup. Probably the most interesting games were the Eagles and the Packers who were 5-5 and 5-4 at the time, and Carolina and SF who were both playoff teams. NOLA played Dallas as the Sunday night game, and it was an asswhomping of epic proportions that everyone saw coming.

It just seems to me that we have less interesting matchups with the new rules and the way the cap works now. A few teams run away with it, a lot of teams are absolute trash, and there are a handful of really good games each week. Before, like in the early 2000s, you had division and playoff battles that lasted. Last year you had a lot of divisions/playoffs so dominated they were sewn up by Week 12, mostly in the AFC.

[Paelos]

Oh and just to add, I'm not a "The Sky is Falling" person about the NFL. It's the WoW of sports. It dominates the entire landscape in a way that even TV has never been dominated.

But it's made them greedy and stupid too. Actions now have longer term effects than they are thinking. In the next 30 years, I'm not sure that it's still the most popular sport in the USA, simply because it tripped up too many times and made too many money-first changes.

[K9]

Week to week the schedule had terrible national matchups. I picked on at random, Week 10. Washington played Minnesota on Thursday. Those teams were 2-7 and 3-6. The Monday night game was Tampa and Miami, a 4-5 and 1-8 epic matchup. Probably the most interesting games were the Eagles and the Packers who were 5-5 and 5-4 at the time, and Carolina and SF who were both playoff teams. NOLA played Dallas as the Sunday night game, and it was an asswhomping of epic proportions that everyone saw coming.

This feels like cherry picking of the highest order, and I'm not even sure what you can say about schedules. Schedules by necessity have to be fixed months in advance, and the system the NFL uses is pretty agnostic. I'm not sure that if you were manually crafting an exciting schedule you could do any worse.

Look at Week One of the forthcoming season, there's some really good looking games there GB @ SEA, CIN @ BAL, IND @ DEN, and SD @ ARI all look to be awesome games on paper, but I'm willing to be a couple will be complete dick, and a couple more of the unmentioned games will prove to be close, exciting, and fun to watch.

[Paelos]

I don't think it's cherry picking when there's really only five functioning teams in each conference. The odds that those 10 teams are going to match up week to week isn't great.

Granted there were some tallest midget contests last year for the remaining playoff spots. Like in the NFC North and East.

My point with looking at the scoring, the cap, and the rules, the NFL is creating this wide gulf of haves and have nots in the league. They aren't consistent each year either, which adds to all the confusion in scheduling parity. But still, you can see a trend where scoring is up, the gap is wider in scoring, and the gap in teams winning is bigger than we've had in the last 5 years.

[K9]

I'm just saying, when I look at the data I'm not seeing any trends, and I think you're being a bit subjective. Now granted, I haven't followed football for as long as you, but looking at the records since the divisional restructure, last year hardly seems like an outlier. I'm not sure how you could quantify a year to be more or less competitive, but if it is the number of teams with exactly 8 wins, then 2006 and 2011 would be best, and 2005 would be the worst. If we widen this to be all teams with 7-9 wins, then 2002 and 2006 look good, with 15 teams each having 7-9 wins, but even by comparison, last season still had 12 teams in that range. There's no win-loss metric which makes last year stand out. If last year resembles any other season in this regard i's 2005.

Scoring wise there may be a trend, I haven't looked at those data. I'm just not convinced that there's some hypothetical season where all matchups matter every week. I think out of 15-16 games per week, getting 4-5 good ones is normal. But this is true of most sports I think.

Code:

YEAR	2013	2012	2011	2010	2009	2008	2007	2006	2005	2004	2003	2002
Wins	2	2	2	2	1	0	1	2	2	2	4	2
	3	2	2	4	2	2	3	3	3	4	4	3
	4	4	3	4	3	2	4	4	4	4	4	4
	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	5	4	4
	4	4	4	5	4	4	4	5	4	5	5	5
	4	5	5	5	5	4	4	5	4	5	5	5
	4	5	5	6	5	5	5	6	4	5	5	6
	5	6	6	6	5	5	5	6	5	6	5	6
	6	6	6	6	6	6	7	6	5	6	5	7
	7	6	6	6	7	7	7	7	5	6	5	7
	7	7	7	6	7	7	7	7	6	6	6	7
	7	7	7	6	7	8	7	7	6	6	6	7
	7	7	8	6	8	8	7	8	6	7	6	7
	8	7	8	7	8	8	7	8	6	7	7	8
	8	7	8	7	8	8	7	8	8	7	7	8
	8	7	8	7	8	8	8	8	9	8	7	8
	8	8	8	8	8	9	8	8	9	8	8	9
	8	8	8	8	9	9	8	8	9	8	8	9
	8	9	8	9	9	9	8	8	9	8	9	9
	8	10	8	10	9	9	9	8	10	9	10	9
	9	10	9	10	9	9	9	9	10	9	10	9
	10	10	9	10	9	9	10	9	10	9	10	9
	10	10	9	10	10	10	10	9	11	9	10	9
	11	10	10	10	10	11	10	9	11	10	10	10
	11	11	10	10	10	11	10	10	11	10	10	10
	11	11	10	11	11	11	10	10	11	10	11	10
	11	11	12	11	11	11	11	10	11	11	12	10
	12	11	12	11	11	12	11	12	11	12	12	11
	12	12	13	12	12	12	13	12	12	12	12	11
	12	12	13	12	13	12	13	13	13	13	12	12
	13	13	13	13	13	12	13	13	13	14	13	12
	13	13	15	14	14	13	16	14	14	15	14	12
Total	255	255	256	256	256	255	256	256	256	256	256	255
Ties	1	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
W <5	7	5	5	4	5	6	6	4	7	3	4	4
Prop	0.21875	0.15625	0.15625	0.125	0.15625	0.1875	0.1875	0.125	0.21875	0.09375	0.125	0.125
W 8	7	2	8	2	5	5	4	8	1	4	2	3
Prop	0.21875	0.0625	0.25	0.0625	0.15625	0.15625	0.125	0.25	0.03125	0.125	0.0625	0.09375
W 7-9	12	9	13	6	13	13	13	15	5	11	6	15
Prop	0.375	0.28125	0.40625	0.1875	0.40625	0.40625	0.40625	0.46875	0.15625	0.34375	0.1875	0.46875

[Paelos]

It probably is me being subjective, I have no doubt about that. I just don't remember as many weeks in the past where I watched really runaway freight train teams manhandle crap. Or crap just playing crap with very little good matchups in between to my eye. It's more I think that the national broadcasts have just predicted things dead wrong on Monday and Thursdays.

The scoring thing is far from subjective. Scoring is WAY up, and that's across the board.

[K9]

Ryan Mallet looked really bad.

[Hoax]

Blaine Gabbert looked really really bad.

Jason Campbell is one of my least favorite QB's ever. I'll never forget that game he played for Chicago on national tv after Cutler went down where he was so obviously phoning it in.

[Paelos]

Cowboys defense still looks shitty. We'll see if that continues as they insert more starters.

[Phildo]

Can you really judge anything based on the first preseason game?  A quick look at the box score shows that most teams featured their backup QBs and second-third string RBs and receivers.  Bet the same could be said for offensive and defensive lines.

Also, I find it really funny that Matt Hasselbeck has become a random backup QB.  How many other guys that made it to the superbowl are now serving as understudies?

[HaemishM]

I had the Ravens/Niners game on in the background while I was cooking dinner last night. I heard the announcers say words one should never hear. "The 49ers are real high on Blaine Gabbert right now. They are really liking what they are seeing out of him."

Check the box score this morning - 3/11 for 20 yards and a pick.

Somebody's fucking high all right. I'm betting Harbaugh is on his knees night and day praying Kap doesn't get hurt.

[WayAbvPar]

There are more people in Atlanta with Ebola than there are Matt Ryan playoff wins

Damn that is just a SHOT.

[Yegolev]

Surprised no one commented on Andy Dalton being handed a $115 million contract.

lolwut

I'm going to go out on a limb and say that Dalton is not even Joe Flacco level of quality.

I don't know much about football, but based on what I saw last year: I agree.

Damn that is just a SHOT.

CDC based here.  Come on guys.

[Paelos]

Can you really judge anything based on the first preseason game?

I can judge defensive backups, who will likely get time because injuries on the defense were fucking rampant last year for the Cowboys.

[Ingmar]

I had the Ravens/Niners game on in the background while I was cooking dinner last night. I heard the announcers say words one should never hear. "The 49ers are real high on Blaine Gabbert right now. They are really liking what they are seeing out of him."

Check the box score this morning - 3/11 for 20 yards and a pick.

Somebody's fucking high all right. I'm betting Harbaugh is on his knees night and day praying Kap doesn't get hurt.

He's been massively outperforming McCoy in practice, supposedly, I still expect McCoy to be cut shortly.

[K9]

Can you really judge anything based on the first preseason game? 

I was mainly basing my assessment on the number of balls Ryan Mallet drilled directly into the ground.

[Hoax]

HE HATES THE GROUND

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tcwz8-EfFYE

[K9]

 

He probably had this as his pregame music

[WayAbvPar]

Damn that is just a SHOT.

CDC based here.  Come on guys.

Oh I know. but it is still among the rarest of rare diseases (and a current headline, making the joke timely as well as accurate). I have been well aware of the CDC from even before The Hot Zone came out and scared everyone about Ebola the first time 

[HaemishM]

Watched a couple of games this weekend. I saw Johnny Football's debut. Goddamn, that kid has a cannon for an arm. He looks hurried, like he's trying to hyper speed himself up because of how much faster everything around him is going on. Both the Browns and the Lions seemed suspect though - the Lions secondary is still terrible and Cleveland looked like they weren't sure how to score TD's.

Also caught the Packers and the Titans playing in a goddamn monsoon. Not really many conclusions I can make because of the conditions and the fact that the Packers didn't really play many of their offensive stars. The Pack does have a plethora of good running backs to choose from.

[HaemishM]

I forgot about the one really important conclusion I drew from both these games and the pre-season press about how refs will be calling pass interference on both sides harder.

Offensive pass interference may actually be called more. This is a good thing. OTOH, the regular season is going to be a fucking dumpster fire full of shitty, ticky-tac penalties called on defenses every fourth or fifth play. It is going to be fucking HORRIBLE to watch because defense won't know how to play, nobody will be able to cover anyone who is halfway decent and scoring is going to go up again. YAY FOR ARENA LEAGUE FOOTBALL.

Fucking idiots.

Also, I'm fine with them making the extra point be a 33-yard field goal. Give me some reason not to fast forward over that play.

[WayAbvPar]

It will last until about game 3 and then they will go back to situation normal (all fucked up).

[01101010]

I never put much stock in preseason, but Manziel looked surprisingly good for his first showing at the NFL level. Was not happy with a couple of his head first dives, but he did have a slide which gives me hope he won't be dead by week 6. He has a gunslinger way about him and has really good zip on the ball. He is just raw with his decision making. As a Browns fan, it gives me some hope... the receiving corps however, does not.

And holy shit how does their defense get torched by the run every single time they kicked it outside? Tackling was also suspect. For the side of the ball that is supposed to be their strength... I am fearful.

[Paelos]

Manziel's playing second teamers though. If he runs around like that against top line guys, he's dead.

The question for me isn't if he's talented. Nor was the the question for guys like Vick or RG3. It's whether they will live through the season.

[Ginaz]

You know what a new NFL season means?  A new music video from the Manning brothers.  

Double  for Joe Namath.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qMor6dL0LfI

[Ingmar]

Somehow they managed to make Namath even creepier.

[Paelos]

Song's terrible, video's funny, Namath super creepy.