MLB 2014

[Phildo]

If only it were enough to help Toronto finally get over the Leafs.

[Sjofn]

Maybe at this point Toronto will take what it can get.

Giants are doing really well, I am going to be super sad when they go into a random deathspiral after the All-Star Break.

[Fordel]

I'm sure between the lot of us we can pass as one real fan 

[Paelos]

There are teams doing well right now that I think have staying power.

Toronto - They are second in team OPS in the league, first in scoring runs, first in homers, but 20th in team ERA. The only question is if they can continue to outhit their pitching. I think yes.
San Fran - 3rd in pitching, 8th in runs, 14th in OPS. The pitching is carrying the Giants, as usual. I think the team can hit better as well, and they control their division.
Oakland - There's nobody functional behind Oakland atm. They are 3rd in OPS, 3rd in homers, and 1st in ERA. They aren't going anywhere. The only question is can they win in the first round? History says no.

Then there are the teams I think are bound to fade if they don't get their shit together

Atlanta - Great pitching, but the team can't score. 29th in runs, only ahead of the pitiful Padres. The fact Atlanta is tied for a division lead is an indictment of the division.
Detroit - Dead average in runs scored, but 4th in OPS. For some reason they aren't pushing runs across. Their main problem is a staff ERA over 4.00, and a Verlander that isn't very Verlander.
Milwaukee - They've feasted on an easy schedule thus far, but when Milwaukee plays good teams (top 2 of their division), they are 9-10. They are feasting on crap teams right now and I think that won't last.

[Phildo]

I want to believe that the Pirates can still do something.  That Polanco fixes their ability to score or that their starting pitching tightens up.  But as someone who remembers more than just last year, I'm counting on more of the same.

[HaemishM]

I think the Pirates are suffering because their bullpen, which was lights out last year, isn't so very dependable this year. Bullpens are so fragile year to year.

I've been watching Oakland a bit the last few days. Since my Cubs suck so hard, this may be the team I root for this year. Something about the beardiness and the fact that of the guys were considered scrubs by other teams.

[Paelos]

It's not that Oakland's players are considered scrubs, it's just that if you play for Oakland you get ZERO pub. Nothing. That team almost never shows up on national broadcasts no matter how much they win.

Oakland has Josh Donaldson, who is arguable the best 3B in baseball. He gets no deals, no pub, no storylines. Oakland without Donaldson is a mid-tier 3rd place team.

Let's also remember that where Oakland plays is a shambles right now. They can take advantage statistically of every team in that division, many of which are hamstrung by dumbass contracts.

Outside of Oakland, SF, and Toronto? The MLB is awful this year, and the OPS numbers have taken another huge drop. Nobody can hit!

[Ginaz]

I think Toronto can keep doing well only if they stay healthy.  Everyone was seemingly hurt at one point or another last year.  Their pitching has gotten a lot better since the beginning of the year, so that 20th ERA is a little misleading.  Besides, in the AL they're their pitching is average.  Only 2 AL teams have an ERA under 3.50.  The third place team's ERA is 3.80, which isn't really much better than Toronto's 4.02.  Their starters have been fairly decent, esp. Buehrle, while Drew Hutchison has and ERA of 3.50 in 12 starts.  Dickey and Happ both have an ERA around 4.00 and I think Happ's might be under 4.00 as a starter.  The 5th starter spot has been a hot mess all year but it usually is with most teams.  As for the hitting, it seems like everyone is hitting the shit out of the ball this year.  Even Lawrie and Reyes, both of whom got off to really slow starts, are hitting a lot better now.  Like I said, the only thing that I can see derailing the Jays would be injuries.  If they can stay healthy I honesty think they can make the playoffs for the first time since 1993, esp with the AL East being weaker than its been in years.

[JWIV]

Machado needs to ride some pine after today's antics. He could have gotten someone seriously hurt with his bullshit.

[Paelos]

Just saw the replay of that. What in the hell was he thinking? He's going to get fined and suspended by the league.

[Ingmar]

San Fran - 3rd in pitching, 8th in runs, 14th in OPS. The pitching is carrying the Giants, as usual. I think the team can hit better as well, and they control their division.

Actually I would say the hitting is carrying us more than the starting pitching, at least. (The bullpen has been fantastic). We have a top 10 WAR guy at almost every field position right now - I think it would be literally every position except 3B if Belt hadn't gotten hurt, and Pablo is 11th and still climbing.

[Paelos]

You're still 6th in starter ERA, so we're splitting hairs on why you're in the NL lead.

The answer is the Giants are good at every facet of the game right now.

[Ingmar]

Well, yes the starters have been good generally, but if you're going off non adjusted stats you're missing a pretty big swing due to park effects.

[Goumindong]

Machado needs to ride some pine after today's antics. He could have gotten someone seriously hurt with his bullshit.

He should eat a suspension for that. Especially after blowing up when he got tagged "too hard" in the base path.

[Hoax]

Machado needs to ride some pine after today's antics. He could have gotten someone seriously hurt with his bullshit.

He should eat a suspension for that. Especially after blowing up when he got tagged "too hard" in the base path.

That guy is a complete piece of shit. I'm sure he'll keep it up and I hope one of the dirtier/meaner teams hits him so hard with a pitch it ends his career. What a scumbag.

[JWIV]

Machado needs to ride some pine after today's antics. He could have gotten someone seriously hurt with his bullshit.

He should eat a suspension for that. Especially after blowing up when he got tagged "too hard" in the base path.

Yeah - I seriously don't know what the hell has been up with him this series. I get he might be sensitive over his knee, and frustrated that he's scuffling at the plate, but it doesn't even come close to justifying how he's behaved.  Don't like being thrown in and tight? Don't deliberately overswing to clip their catcher twice or act like a child because you got tagged on a FC going to third.   

[Paelos]

Well, yes the starters have been good generally, but if you're going off non adjusted stats you're missing a pretty big swing due to park effects.

I'm not sure how to feel about the ballpark effects stats. I understand that some are way different than others (Coors, Citi Field), but I don't know how much of it is truly the park and how much of it is the psychological effect of the park, especially when it's the home park.

[HaemishM]

Machado needs to ride some pine after today's antics. He could have gotten someone seriously hurt with his bullshit.

He should eat a suspension for that. Especially after blowing up when he got tagged "too hard" in the base path.

I just watched the video of that. FUCK HIM. Machado should be suspended for a long time for that shit. Give him 50 fucking games (same as the first positive steroids test). Tossing a bat at someone like that could do some serious fucking harm and there's just no fucking excuse for it. So a pitcher tossed you a brush back pitch (and I'm not even sure it was that - those are usually aimed at the head or upper body). Pitchers pitch inside. Get over it. If they couldn't pitch inside, you might as well get rid of the pitcher and put the ball on a tee for the spoiled man babies.

That shit makes me angry. Bad enough the whole Donaldson brouhaha happened after he got tagged but that shit is unacceptable. IMO, the pitcher shouldn't have gotten tossed for that - he did nothing wrong.

[Paelos]

I'd give him 16 games minimum. That's the kind of thing you have to nip in the bud. You can't let other players think you're going to get a slap on the wrist for actually flinging the bat into the field of play on purpose.

[WayAbvPar]

Well, yes the starters have been good generally, but if you're going off non adjusted stats you're missing a pretty big swing due to park effects.

I'm not sure how to feel about the ballpark effects stats. I understand that some are way different than others (Coors, Citi Field), but I don't know how much of it is truly the park and how much of it is the psychological effect of the park, especially when it's the home park.

Why would you care? There is either a measurable effect or there is not.

[Hoax]

I'd give him 16 games minimum. That's the kind of thing you have to nip in the bud. You can't let other players think you're going to get a slap on the wrist for actually flinging the bat into the field of play on purpose.

Personally I find the smacking the catcher in the head shit just as bad, no way that is unintentional. He tried and just missed then did it again. That guy is complete fucking scum.

[Goumindong]

Well, yes the starters have been good generally, but if you're going off non adjusted stats you're missing a pretty big swing due to park effects.

I'm not sure how to feel about the ballpark effects stats. I understand that some are way different than others (Coors, Citi Field), but I don't know how much of it is truly the park and how much of it is the psychological effect of the park, especially when it's the home park.

Everything, from the size of the park, to the amount of foul territory, to the cut of the grass, to the lip between the infield grass and the base path, to the batters eye, to the prevailing winds and humidity effects how hard it is to hit various hits in a field.

Here is an example:

Compare Chase Field



to Safeco



Compared to Chase, Safeco is positively cavernous in the power regions(left center/right center), especially with regards to right handed hitters. The area behind the plate is larger, making it easier to pick up pop ups. I am not sure about the prevailing wind in Chase(Chase appears to be open front to back, which means prevailing winds will push balls further out or closer in, but not foul), but in Safeco the wind comes in from left field and pushes balls on the right side foul and on the left side closer in. Because the field is so large on the left field side when the wind is blowing out that way its not even particularly damaging to a pitcher.

To see the effect of this, just look at Felix Hernandez's perfect game in 2012. The very fist ball hit is a fly ball to right field which is caught. It flies about 380 feet, long enough to have been a home run in Chase, but eaten by the power alleys in Safeco.

Chase is 1.05 park effect on runs, safeco is .86 so about 22% more runs are scored in Chase. This is even considering that the image above is inaccurate after 2012 (at the end of the season the walls were brought in significantly in the power alleys)

[Paelos]

I understand there are differences in parks. That's not my point. Some of them are very very obvious due to weather and dimensions. Most of them basically bunch up in the middle and change positions year to year based on the data.

So yeah I think there are certain parks where you certainly care, but I don't think it's a huge deal for about 20+ of them. If I'm buying a player from Colorado, I'm going to get concerned about his ability to play in Citi Field. I'm not really going to worry that much about getting a guy who plays in Turner Field going to Miami.

EDIT: But the other thing I wonder about is how park factors are effected by club philosophy. Would the Cardinals be the same if they played in Turner Field? Is the Braves philosophy of pitching first the reason that Turner has some of that effect? Perhaps the factors take those kinds of things into the calculation, but everything I've read about park factors says it's "really complicated" which makes me wonder.

[Ingmar]

Who needs Bo Jackson?

[Trippy]

Why the heck is he playing left field?

[Paelos]

Then there are the teams I think are bound to fade if they don't get their shit together

Atlanta - Great pitching, but the team can't score. 29th in runs, only ahead of the pitiful Padres. The fact Atlanta is tied for a division lead is an indictment of the division.
Detroit - Dead average in runs scored, but 4th in OPS. For some reason they aren't pushing runs across. Their main problem is a staff ERA over 4.00, and a Verlander that isn't very Verlander.
Milwaukee - They've feasted on an easy schedule thus far, but when Milwaukee plays good teams (top 2 of their division), they are 9-10. They are feasting on crap teams right now and I think that won't last.

So far this is happening with Atlanta. They are about to get swept by the shitty Phillies, they can't hit, their fielding is suspect, and they aren't scoring runs when they get good pitching efforts. The rest of the NL East has caught up to the Braves, and they look lost at times.

Detroit has totally gagged, and the Royals are the new hot team in the AL Central. Detroit has as many wins as Cleveland. That division in general really sucks right now.

Milwaukee hasn't let up yet, but the Cardinals are closing in. After they leave Arizona, we'll see how they fare with 10 games against Colorado and the Nationals, 2 against Toronto, 3 in Cincy, 4 against Philly, and 3 against the Cards. I don't expect that close to .600 winning percentage to even be .550 by the All-Star break.

[Ingmar]

Giants are suddenly in the shitter as well. Good thing we had that start.

[WayAbvPar]

Ms lost 5 straight, but are getting healthy with home and home 2 game series with San Diego (WTF, schedule makers), who somehow make the horrible Seattle offense looks competent. And they get to face Felix tonight. Enjoy!

[Goumindong]

Why the heck is he playing left field?

A lot of outfielders have cannons(there are plenty of video's floating around of various strong throws). Its a different kind of throw from a pitcher and isn't done as often. He is playing left field likely for historical reasons (I.E. its what he has played) and because he isn't as mobile as a center or right feilder needs to be (right field, while usually a bit smaller has more dinks due to more right handed batters and so you usually have to run a bit further) and because the left field throw is one where there is the highest likelyhood of getting people out to maximize the strength of your arm. In center the distance is just too great for the most part and close bases are where you're more likely to throw. In right if you're throwing to second its not going to get someone and third is a long ways making that harder as well

The most impressive is probably Bo Jackson

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cIqtDykn0l0

Watch at 58:20 for him throwing out Herold Reynolds a year after he won the stolen base record, on a a hit and run, from the warning track. That entire documentary is actually pretty amazing actually.

edit: http://m.mlb.com/video/v25868281/cwsnyy-bo-jackson-throws-out-mike-gallego

Here is another good one. Bo throws a guy out at third from standing flat footed 300 feet in right field.

[Ingmar]

IIRC Bo bounced the Reynolds throw, not that you can see it on that footage, which is why my instinct is that I'm more impressed by the Cespedes one. They're both absurd, in any case.

[Trippy]

I meant why is he playing left field instead of right field. Outfielders with those kinds of arms (and not a lot of speed) usually play right field cause it increases the risk for runners trying to get to third on a hit to right field.

My favorite throw out a home growing up was the one Dave Parker threw at the All-Star game: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1PH6XJypKno

His -5 arm in Strat-O-Matic baseball was well deserved

[Sjofn]

Tim Lincecum apparently decided last year's no hitter versus the Padres wasn't as pretty as it could've been (and it wasn't, it was like 140-something pitches, etc), so he threw a much prettier one today (one walk shy of a perfect game, alas). I still hate that fucking mustache.

[Phildo]

Are you kidding?  That mustache is fantastic.

[Sjofn]

it is the worst thing that could happen

[Ginaz]

Well, it looks like, at the very least, Oakland has wrapped up the AL West.  They just made a trade with the Cubs for starting pitchers Jeff Samardzija and Jason Hammel for 3 minor leaguers.   
http://www.cbc.ca/sports/baseball/mlb/jeff-samardzija-jason-hammel-reportedly-traded-to-athletics-1.2697298