2013 NFL Super Bowl Prediction Challenge

[Phildo]

Leave Roethlisberger alone.  He never actually successfully raped anybody!

[naum]

How many super bowl winners in the last decade had a top 10 defense?  

Going by scoring defense all the way back to 2000:

2013: Seahawks - 231pts (1st)
2012: Ravens - 344pts (12th)
2011: Giants - 400pts (25th)
2010: Packers - 240pts (2nd)
2009: Saints - 341pts (20th)
2008: Roethlisbergers - 223pts (1st)
2007: Giants - 351pts (17th)
2006: Colts - 360pts (23rd)
2005: Roethlisbergers - 258pts (3rd)
2004: Patriots - 260pts (2nd)
2003: Patriots - 238pts (1st)
2002: Buccaneers - 196pts (1st)
2001: Patriots - 272pts (6th)
2000: Ravens - 165pts (1st)

So the overrated Manning and Brees had to win their rings without a lot of help from their defense, while elite Roethlisberger was carried by his defense.  As an aside, also note that Brady hasn't been able to win a championship without a dominating defense backing him up.

Besides the fact that "points allowed" is a not always indicative of defense effectiveness, the point was that Roethlisberger era Steeler D were not at the level of previous Steeler defenses -- a fact that is uncontroversial to most analysts and objective viewers.

[HaemishM]

Roethlisberger doesn't belong in the same conversation as Manning. You are high.

This. The Rapist has been good (though he's obviously breaking down physically these days and his team is shit), but he has NEVER, EVER in a MILLION FUCKING YEARS been as good a QB as Manning or Brady is RIGHT FUCKING NOW in their sunset years. He just isn't. The two Super Bowls the Rapist won were not won by him - the first in particular was a terrible game for the Berger.

EDIT: And it doesn't matter the Steelers' D that won those 2 Super Bowls was as good as previous Steelers' D - it's that THOSE defenses were better than most other defenses in the league they were playing against, including the teams they beat.

Also, Eli would NOT have won that first Super Bowl without the Giants defense. If I remember right, that year the Giants D started out fuckstupid awful but got insanely hot by the end of the season. Their first 8 games were forgettable but their pass rush just KILLED people down the stretch and in the postseason. Their numbers were somewhat skewed by early injuries and coaching incompetence. Also, Eli didn't throw one INT in the entire postseason that year.

[Hoax]

I feel like people are really underestimating Rothlisberger. At least three plays a game he just refuses to be sacked and often beats you for a big gain because a secondary can't cover forever. Besides that he's pretty much a slightly above average QB but as someone who has watched at least two of his games every year I can tell you that those plays are just so back breaking that they often decide games. Furthermore unlike Manning's on-field coaching shit which I think we can safely say at this point loses value in playoff situations and especially super bowls with that extra week of prep time. Rothlisberger's beingfuckingimpossibletobringdown skill probably gains value in tighter playoff-type contests.

Flacco and Eli are pretty similar unless Flacco proves otherwise by doing it again, with less help. They are under Peyton but not by that much.

Peyton is nowhere near Montana or Brady. Hell nobody in my lifetime is. But I'd hear the argument that both those guys were working for the most genius coaches of their times. So maybe they get too much credit? Who knows.

Now where to rank Peyton versus Elway, Young and Favre type amazingly gifted athletically QB's is really tough. Doesn't quite feel like an apples to apples comparison.

***

For the record here is the conversation for elite QB's from my lifetime (obviously data suggests Staubach, Stabler, Bradshaw etc. were pretty damn good but what do I know?).
-Montana
-Brady
-Young
-Elway
-Kelly
-Rodgers
-Favre
-Manning (Peyton)
-Rothlisberger

*edit* forgot Aaron Rodgers

[Nevermore]

Besides the fact that "points allowed" is a not always indicative of defense effectiveness

 

One of us is certainly missing the point and spoiler alert, it's not me. The entire point of the defense is to not allow points. I can only assume you're just trolling because the alternative is just  .

Haemish already covered the point that it doesn't matter how the Super Bowl defenses compared to defenses in the past when the former were all at least top 3 relative to the rest of the league.

[Paelos]

Basically throw out everything you know about stats and comparing teams before 1994, when the cap came in. That's the beginning of the modern era of football.

[Ingmar]

It should probably be noted that special teams is a much bigger piece of the 'points allowed' puzzle than it is normally given credit for. That said, naum is still living in crazy town.

[HaemishM]

Basically throw out everything you know about stats and comparing teams before 1994, when the cap came in. That's the beginning of the modern era of football.

You should also consider the addition of another wild card team and first-round byes in the "he won a Super Bowl" picture as well. Teams like the 2010 Green Bay Packers or even the Rapist's first Super Bowl would not have even been in the playoffs in the 90's.

[Sjofn]

Also, Eli would NOT have won that first Super Bowl without the Giants defense. If I remember right, that year the Giants D started out fuckstupid awful but got insanely hot by the end of the season. Their first 8 games were forgettable but their pass rush just KILLED people down the stretch and in the postseason. Their numbers were somewhat skewed by early injuries and coaching incompetence. Also, Eli didn't throw one INT in the entire postseason that year.

I dunno about insanely hot but their defense was like a completely different defense once they hit the postseason, and then in the actual Superbowl, they were really, really good. I remember at the time people being shocked at how well the defense played against the Patriots, and the general feeling being the defense won that game. :P

[Paelos]

They got hot after week 15. The Giants gave up an average of 14 points starting in Week 16 and running through the Super Bowl.

Before that? They averaged almost 25 points a game against.

[Malakili]

The Giants defense matched up really well against the Patriots.  Overall rankings are important, but it depends who you play too.  Match-ups matter.  I remember actually hoping the Patriots won during the 2011 playoffs.  I think they would have had a much tougher time against the other potential opponents.

[Sjofn]

Haha, I remember for the 2011 one, Ingmar seething because it was pretty obvious the 49ers would've wrecked the Patriots.

[Fordel]

I remember one Giants SB year, their defense basically murdered half a dozen QBs.

[Sjofn]

They were asking for it.

[TheWalrus]

As much as I ended up disliking LT after he was done with football, he sure was fun to watch. Dude could lay a hit down hard.

[Nebu]

As much as I ended up disliking LT after he was done with football, he sure was fun to watch. Dude could lay a hit down hard.

Joe Theismann agrees.

[WayAbvPar]

I think he was talking about crack.

[Abelian75]

Furthermore unlike Manning's on-field coaching shit which I think we can safely say at this point loses value in playoff situations and especially super bowls with that extra week of prep time

That's really interesting, actually, and it hadn't occurred to me.  Possibly I've just missed people bringing that up, but typically I've just seen "can't win the big game" where "big game" is defined as "a playoff game Peyton Manning loses."  I can definitely buy that his game management would become less of a factor as the season goes on.

[Goumindong]

Eh, i think its more that the Seattle secondary had his number. According to Sherman they figured out his audibles (or rather hand signals since Manning couldn't be heard) in the game and then jumped the routes.

[HaemishM]

One thing I've always said about Manning - he does not thrive well in the playoffs when he's had a week off. That's one of the reasons the Colts never won the Super Bowl as a division champ. When he has the week off, his timing which is so precise week in and week out during the season, is off. The weekly rhythm of the regular season really favors him, whereas 2 weeks off and he loses that touch.

[Paelos]

The Broncos just didn't execute any of their plays from the first snap. The Seattle D threw off everything, and that was the difference.

[Cyrrex]

Denver executed some of their early stuff just like they normally do - the quick underneath pass, jailbreak screens, quick slants, etc.  That has always, always, ALWAYS been their bread and butter.  We talked about this before the game.  The difference was that Seattle defenders were there immediately, and absolutely demolished them as soon as they got the ball.  This point, along with whether or not Seattle would pressure Manning, was always going to be the deciding factor on that side of the ball for both teams.  Manning completed a lot of those passes, but it didn't matter much.

An interesting thing to watch if you can find it somewhere is a highlight video for D. Thomas during the Super Bowl.  It kind of puts his record setting SB performance in perspective, because he got absolutely rocked in that game.  Eve some of his catches that turned into first downs, you can't help but think he was just getting clobbered.  Except for his TD pass and a few other plays, the video looks more like a Seattle D highlight real.  Not to take anything away from Thomas, because I think he was the only Bronco on the field that actually showed any gumption that day, so good on him for that.  The rest of the trio were invisible, except for some garbage time stuff from Welker.

[Malakili]

Denver executed some of their early stuff just like they normally do - the quick underneath pass, jailbreak screens, quick slants, etc.  That has always, always, ALWAYS been their bread and butter.  We talked about this before the game.  The difference was that Seattle defenders were there immediately, and absolutely demolished them as soon as they got the ball.  This point, along with whether or not Seattle would pressure Manning, was always going to be the deciding factor on that side of the ball for both teams.  Manning completed a lot of those passes, but it didn't matter much.

Yeah, on the second or third series for Denver it was 3rd and maybe 4 or 5, and they ran a crossing route to someone.  He got absolutely blown up as soon as he caught the ball.  Despite the fumble and sloppy play before that, it was definitely the moment where I went.. "Oh. It's going to be like THAT." And I knew at that moment Denver was almost certainly done for.

[Cyrrex]

Yeah, it was the first real series they ran after the safety.  1 run and two short passes.  3 clobberings.

[WayAbvPar]

I said it earlier in the season, but the Super Bowl completely reaffirmed it- the Seattle D tackles better than any defense I can remember. They are big and fast and all that, but when they get to the ball carrier, he goes down 99% of the time. The fact that they get there in bunches makes it easier to do it, but even one on one they make almost all the tackles.

[MrHat]

When I use Haemish's picks next year for gambilng and lose I will have no one to blame but Haemish.

[HaemishM]

I don't expect my picking prowess to continue for another season but who the fuck knows?