2013 NFL Super Bowl Prediction Challenge

[Cyrrex]

Now you are just sounding like an idiot.  75% completion rate, 8 or so yards per attempt.  2 touchdowns.  123 rating.  No picks.  Outplayed the GOAT in the Super Bowl by a enormous margin in only his second year.  He doesn't put up the huge yardage numbers, because he doesn't fucking need to.  Do you think for a second that he couldn't have put up 300 to 350 in that game?

Seriously, just stop.

[Paelos]

No, I won't. I picked Seattle for the exact reasons they won. Their defense controlled the field, they controlled the line of scrimmage, and they controlled the turnover game. They also have the best kicking game, and they played all the special teams facets well.

Russell has a high rating because he throws the vast majority of his passes 0-6 yards down the field, and many of them on screens. Do you honestly believe Russell Wilson is the reason Seattle won any of their games in the playoffs more than the defense?

I mean hell, the winning QB didn't win Super Bowl MVP. It went to a defensive player, and the only other guy to do that is Ray Lewis on (guess who!) TRENT DILFER'S TEAM.

[Chimpy]

Defensive players not winning the MVP in the SuperBowl has a lot less to do with the low quality of QB play and more to do with the bias towards flashy play in single game MVP voting.

That being said, Wilson has not been a flashy big-numbers QB. Because Seattle is not a team designed around needing a Hall of Fame caliber QB performance to win week in and week out, it is hard to know if he is capable of being such a level of player.

But honestly, it doesn't matter. Wilson has a SuperBowl ring. Seattle have won a title and they won it by doing the fundamental things right on defense not allowing the other team to get big plays. They never let contain be broken, their pursuit to the ball was stellar, and they made good tackles.

[Yegolev]

They made awesome tackles.

I figure that Peyton ate some Papa John's before the game.  He obviously had a stomachache starting in the second.

[HaemishM]

He doesn't have to be great. That's not a knock on him because he's smart about not fucking up, but Seattle fans pretending he's a difference maker is fucking silly. You need to get over that, and just celebrate the shit you have that matters.

I will almost agree with you on this. He wasn't a HUGE difference maker but he did 2 things last night that did make a lot of difference.

1) He made throws on 3rd down - they weren't GREATZOMG throws, they were just the normal, keep the engine running and the chains moving kind of throws that kept that offense on the field and Peyton on the bench.
2) He didn't turn the ball over at all, and to be fair, he didn't really even get close to throwing a bad pass.

He did exactly what he had to do, and he did it well. It was the best game he's had in these playoffs which is why the game was a complete rout as opposed to a close game like that against San Fran. Seattle won because of their defense and special teams, this is true, but they won by such a huge margin because Wilson had a pretty damn good game within the role he was expected to play. His QB rating was over 100 after all - Manning's was 24 something.

And talk about Manning all you want, but it wasn't just him that lost that game. His entire team played like shit except for the D line.

[Yegolev]

I seem to remember Wilson running a few yards when he couldn't throw, and he did it in perfectly acceptable conditions; meaning, not from desperation so much as there was a lane and they needed the down.

I had considered going for Wilson in next season's draft, depending on where I fall, but at this point I'm going to have to be at least third in line to get him.  This is fine, more Brees for me.

Bruno Mars is a good showman, not sure why people don't like him.  But whatever, not the place.

[Paelos]

I agree, Wilson does what needs to be done. Wilson piled on the extra scores at the end, but those were garbage time stat-padding numbers. When Seattle went up 29-0? Game was over.

Before that 29-0 score, Wilson went 9-15 with 94 yards, no TDs. I mean, I can't spell it out much more than that. The game was done, and he was basically a non-issue. Defense and kicking scored 22 of those points.

What I want is for people to stop pretending you have to have the ZOMG BEST QB EVER QB DRIVEN LEAGUE RAWR. The last three champs are Eli, Flacco, and Wilson. Are we really going to say those guys are in the top echelon of QBs? Or are we going to say they had some of the best defensive players in the game?

[Rasix]

I had considered going for Wilson in next season's draft, depending on where I fall, but at this point I'm going to have to be at least third in line to get him.  This is fine, more Brees for me.

I'm not sure he'll be a great fantasy option.  There are games where he'll need to do nothing and that's exactly what he'll do.  Plus, the defenses in the NFC West just seem to be getting better all the time.

Wilson is fine for what they need now. I'm not sure how good he'll do without such a fantastic team supporting him, but that might not be an issue for a while.

[Yegolev]

I don't think he is going to be an awesome fantasy pick, just that he is or was on the radar if I couldn't get someone who is actually good in FF.  I mean, Mike Ditka said Wilson is the best QB out there but that's a haul from being a good FF QB.  Also Ditka can't dress himself.

You said it: Flacco. Eli.

[Hoax]

the GOAT

Oh please. There is one rule about declaring someone the GOAT. They need to play their biggest and baddest on their biggest stage(s). Manning does not qualify in the slightest for that criteria.

And football, being the ultimate team game, doesn't led itself much to the GOAT concept. Not like basketball certainly or hockey or soccer to lesser extents.

The team counting on 22+ guys to win the game beat the piss out of the team counting on one guy to win the game. All was how it should be. Peyton choked on a big fat dick under the pressure of an amazing defensive display. I love super bowls like this. I loved 2000 and I loved 2002. Those were my favorite super bowls of my adult life. This one may have been even better.

[01101010]

I give Denver defense credit though, at least on one dimension. They contained Lynch...Harvin, not so much.

[Yegolev]

I was impressed that they contained Lynch, at least until I realized that they were doing so at the expense of containing everyone else.

[Rasix]

I give Denver defense credit though, at least on one dimension. They contained Lynch...Harvin, not so much.

Eh, Harvin had 50 yards of total offense not counting special teams.  The kickoff return is not on the D, that's on the special teams.

My wife thought he was awfully fast.  "Yes, dear, he's awesome when he's not having a migraine."

[Shannow]

That game just shows me how fucking meaningless passing stats in the regular season are nowadays.

[Ghambit]

I don't think he is going to be an awesome fantasy pick, just that he is or was on the radar if I couldn't get someone who is actually good in FF.  I mean, Mike Ditka said Wilson is the best QB out there but that's a haul from being a good FF QB.  Also Ditka can't dress himself.

You said it: Flacco. Eli.

Ditka wasnt the only coach saying Wilson was the best.  A lot of scouts thought if it weren't for his size, he would be; even coming fresh out of the draft (this was repeated over and over during that draft).  That's literally the only knock scouts have against him.  He's a very non-cocky, smart, swiss army knife type of QB.  They'll get him to do what they need him to and he'll do it.  As was said in the postgame, they've only scratched the surface with him and Carroll will never put him in a position to lose.

Personally, I'd rather have him on my team then Kaepernick, RG3, or T-Hill.  Kaep still shows the most potential though, if he can get over being a cocky dumbass; which is unlikely.  In a complex offense Luck is still the best of them all for the time being regardless, but statistically last year Wilson was the better QB (if people actually ever bothered to pay attn. to the numbers)  Efficiency-wise, Wilson is hard to beat.  Per pass attempt you'd be hardpressed to find a more reliable player, let alone on 3rd-down.  Also for the SB, recall he had 3 passes that should've been caught.  His QBR would be even higher.

I dont have a bromance with the guy, I just call it like it is.  The Seahawks got lucky picking him up, along with the what?  20+ undrafted players that go beastmode for them.  Scary.

I give Denver defense credit though, at least on one dimension. They contained Lynch...Harvin, not so much.

Eh, Harvin had 50 yards of total offense not counting special teams.  The kickoff return is not on the D, that's on the special teams.

My wife thought he was awfully fast.  "Yes, dear, he's awesome when he's not having a migraine."

He touched the ball what? 4 times??  Four.  These are the stats for those 4 times.
Two carries, 45 yards (one of which should've went the distance); one catch, five yards; one kickoff return, 87 yards, one TD.  

Recall, if they wanted to they'd put him in the backfield to compliment Lynch.  He's a natural tailback.  They just didnt have to and since he was hurt most of the year they couldn't.

All goes back to what I was saying before, that Seattle has way more weapons then people think.  Way more team speed.  Speed kills.  I'd forgotten to bring up Kearse as well, who a lot of guys were saying is a phreak and a lock for the Pro Bowl at some point.  Anyways, they cant hide from the attention now and teams will come more prepared for them, but good luck with that.   A team that talented, that young, with that comfortable a place to play (due to awesome ownership) will be tough to bring down.

[Yegolev]

Kaep is going to be a Dbag until he dies.  I'm not going to hang my backwards cap on that hook.

[Cyrrex]

No, I won't. I picked Seattle for the exact reasons they won. Their defense controlled the field, they controlled the line of scrimmage, and they controlled the turnover game. They also have the best kicking game, and they played all the special teams facets well.

Russell has a high rating because he throws the vast majority of his passes 0-6 yards down the field, and many of them on screens. Do you honestly believe Russell Wilson is the reason Seattle won any of their games in the playoffs more than the defense?

I mean hell, the winning QB didn't win Super Bowl MVP. It went to a defensive player, and the only other guy to do that is Ray Lewis on (guess who!) TRENT DILFER'S TEAM.

You keep comparing a guy with a career rating over a hundred, a career Y/A above or around 8, the the with the most wins and most TDs in his first two seasons (let me hedge that one...maybe it was just in his first?), the third youngest QB and the third QB in his second year to win a Super Bowl ring (and two Pro Bowl nods, I think), a game in which he thoroughly outplayed his counterpart who is considered one of the best ever, to Trent Dilfer.  If you actually believe that, then your football IQ is so low that I might as well be arguing with my keyboard.

He is not the best QB in the NFL, but he is definitely in the top 10.  He manages a football game extraordinarily well, but it is beyond foolish to think that he is no more than that.

the GOAT

Oh please. There is one rule about declaring someone the GOAT. They need to play their biggest and baddest on their biggest stage(s). Manning does not qualify in the slightest for that criteria.

I was sorta using the term ironically, given what just happened.  But still, Manning is still considered one of the best, by any measure.

[Cyrrex]

Oh, and Kaepernick is not only a dbag, but he is also one good knee injury away from not being good enough to play in the NFL.

[Nevermore]

most TDs in his first two seasons (let me hedge that one...maybe it was just in his first?)

Just the first.  Marino had 68 TDs in his first two years (20 and 48), Wilson only had 52 (26 and 26).

You many now all return to your Wilson fellatio.  

Edit: By the way, Marino only played in 11 games his first year so that works out to 1.8 TDs per game that he played.  For Wilson it comes out to 1.6 TDs per game his first year.

[Bunk]

Russell has a high rating because he throws the vast majority of his passes 0-6 yards down the field, and many of them on screens. Do you honestly believe Russell Wilson is the reason Seattle won any of their games in the playoffs more than the defense?

I thought these stats made an interesting point. This is for the regular season of course:

Wilson:    4.4 yards in the air per catch. 46.3% of his passing yards were after the catch.
Manning: 4.2 yards in the air per catch. 49% of his passing yards were after the catch.

Wilson isn't Payton Manning, but he sure as hell isn't Trent Dilfer.

Also:

[Paelos]

He is not the best QB in the NFL, but he is definitely in the top 10.  He manages a football game extraordinarily well, but it is beyond foolish to think that he is no more than that.

He's AJ McCarron of the NFL. He's on a great defensive team with one of the best running games in the league. You don't have to have the QB be great to win in the NFL, and that's the issue. People try to claim QBs are good because they win a Super Bowl, when in fact they are just solid players who don't make errors.

On Green Bay, New England, Philly, Denver, Indy, NO, SD, or Cincy, he's just a guy.

[Chimpy]

I think 99% of us reading this thread can agree that the reality on Wilson is somewhere in the middle of Paelos's total dismissal and Ghambit's mancrush.

 

[Shannow]

Game manager on a superbowl winning team with a great defense? Hrrm wonder where I've seen that before. Is he going to be Tom Brady? Maybe not but I have a feeling the kid is only going to get better.

[Paelos]

Game manager on a superbowl winning team with a great defense? Hrrm wonder where I've seen that before. Is he going to be Tom Brady? Maybe not but I have a feeling the kid is only going to get better.

They have until 2016 to win as much as they can and structure deals. Then almost all the contracts are up, and shit will hit the fan due to the cap. That's why dynasties are so difficult in the cap era.

[Nebu]

Game manager on a superbowl winning team with a great defense? Hrrm wonder where I've seen that before. Is he going to be Tom Brady? Maybe not but I have a feeling the kid is only going to get better.

Jim McMahon. 

[Goumindong]

No, I won't. I picked Seattle for the exact reasons they won. Their defense controlled the field, they controlled the line of scrimmage, and they controlled the turnover game. They also have the best kicking game, and they played all the special teams facets well.

Russell has a high rating because he throws the vast majority of his passes 0-6 yards down the field, and many of them on screens. Do you honestly believe Russell Wilson is the reason Seattle won any of their games in the playoffs more than the defense?

I mean hell, the winning QB didn't win Super Bowl MVP. It went to a defensive player, and the only other guy to do that is Ray Lewis on (guess who!) TRENT DILFER'S TEAM.

There have been 9 defensive players to win the Super Bowl MVP Edit: Howley for 70 Cowboys, Scott for the 72 Dolphins, Martin and White, of the 77 Cowboys, Dent of the 85 Bears, Brown of the 93 Cowboys, Lewis of the 2000 Ravens, Jackson of the 2002 Buccaneers, Smith of the 2013 Seahawks.

Wilson didn't throw the ball a lot, sure. But that isn't because he is some bad QB. Its because good QB's don't throw the ball when they're ahead and have a good defense. They run time off the clock. Which Wilson did.

Before that 29-0 score, Wilson went 9-15 with 94 yards, no TDs. I mean, I can't spell it out much more than that. The game was done, and he was basically a non-issue. Defense and kicking scored 22 of those points.

Wilson got the ball in range to be kicked. Would probably have had a TD on one of those if it wasn't for the weak offensive holding call, and the other had the challenge gone their way (he probably didn't quite make it but probably worth the challenge)

Oh, and Kaepernick is not only a dbag, but he is also one good knee injury away from not being good enough to play in the NFL.

Eh. Kaepernick had the unfortunate luck of having to play against the Seahawks this year. In a division with the number 1,2,7, and 11 defenses with SF being the weakest defense (weighted DVOA) in the division. While he will be a lot weaker as soon as he can't run. But he is still a very good Quarterback, an amazing thrower, and a douche.

Then again Wilson had the unfortunate luck of having the number 2, number 7 and 11 defense in the league in his division.

The NFC Wests primary Rivals are the NFC South(3,12,30,9) and the AFC South(19,21,23,22). Seattle got the Giants(4) and Vikings(26) as their free. SF got Washington(17) and Green Bay(29)

Compare to Manning. Whose divisions defenses looked like this 10, 14, 25, 28. Denver was number 10. With primary rivals being the NFC East(4,15,32,17) and the AFC South(19,21,23,22). Denver's off teams were the Ravens(8) and Patriots(24).

The best defense that Denver played all year, besides Seattle was the Giants. Seattle played 4 games against defenses as good as the Giants. San Fran played 5. Seattle played 6 games against defenses as strong as the second best that the Bronco's played. San Fran played 7, over 40% of its schedule. Seattle still had the number 9 rated offense and SF had the number 7 rated. And yea, neither of them put up really amazing numbers. But neither of them were playing in the AFC West with a pure pass offense either.

[Ingmar]

So uh, what was Kaepernick's big crime this year that's got everyone calling him a douche? I mean other than things like 'having tattoos' and 'wearing his hat at an angle I don't like'.

[Rasix]

High pitched voice.  Thuggery.

[Ghambit]

Eyes too close together + thin-lipped/small-mouth is always an indicator.

[WayAbvPar]

He also throws the ball like a 90 year old man slamming a screen door shut. It is an awful throwing motion which likely impacts his accuracy. Once he can't run he is a pedestrian QB at best.

[Paelos]

So uh, what was Kaepernick's big crime this year that's got everyone calling him a douche? I mean other than things like 'having tattoos' and 'wearing his hat at an angle I don't like'.

He plays for Jim Harbaugh. The douche rolls downhill.

[Shannow]

I usually can't stand Frank Caliendo but his bit from the pre-game had some gems. The Belichick bit killed.

[Paelos]

That accurately sums up my feelings for 30 for 30.

The Harbaugh and Belichick bits are great.

[HaemishM]

His Jaworski, Ditka and Gruden are great impressions, but yeah, the Harbaugh bit just killed.

[Bungee]

Totals through the Championship Games

HaemishM           17
Malakili           16
Nevermore           14
Mithas           13
Shannow           12
Veredus           12
Bungee           12
1101010           12
naum                   11
Trippy           11
Mr. Hat           11
Bunk                   11
Azuredream   11
Cyrrex           11
Ghost            9
Wayabvpar            9
K9                    9
Sickrubik            9
Stewie            8
Chimpy            8
Phildo            7
Paelos            6
shiznitz            6
Surlyboi            4
Ginaz                    4
Hoax                    2

Super Bowl is worth 8 points to avoid the messiness that could be a tie. Ties will be decided by a goddamn coin flip.

My Super Bowl Pick

DUN DUN DUHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH

Denver. Obviously.

So? Who got it?

Edit: Looked it up, Nevermore won. Gratz!