Season 8 Predictions and Speculation

[Megrim]

Division 1 - 40k

With two Human teams, two Skaven and two Daemon teams, along with a low team-value Chaos and Halfling, this division is looking to be the one least likely to be blown out by one or two teams.

Starting with the lowest TV, the Halfling Sidekick Storm are a brave lot. In what I think is a League first, the debut Halflings will be looking to draw a few games, maybe eke out a couple of wins here and there, and hopefully not finish dead last. Having said that though, with careful management of team-value and three MB trees on the pitch against a field of mostly low to medium armour teams, the Halflings could end up playing the unlikely role of kingmaker, as a game against them could potentially cripple some (if not all) of the contenders.

Drogg's Muscle Daddies, the more experienced of the two Khorne Deamon teams is somewhat in the same boat. While their potential for winning too many games is I think low, the Claw/MB Bloodthirster is likely going to cause problems. If he does get on a roll and takes a few injuries each game then he might be able to bully his way up the rankings. The Daemons are a new team though, not only in experience but to the game as well, so we will have to see how Drogg develops the team and what he can do with them.

Slotting into fourth place by virtue of 10TV, Satael's Chaos String Theorists will be looking to build throughout the season. With a smattering of Block and one goat already heading down the can-opener path, Satael may be drawing on the lessons learned from Ruvald's Chaos team and planning on lawn mowing his way through the opposition in due time. He will probably be outrun by the rat and out-guarded by the humans, but may end up finishing middle of the table.

Next up is (I believe) newcomer Darth Roxor's Humans, Secret Military Unicorn. With a selection of skill looking like they were picked to handle a variety of threats, the SMU should have a pretty easy time handling the less developed teams. The games against both rat teams will be crucial though, as they are likely to be his closest match-ups throughout the season so securing those points will be key. Human teams tend to excel in hybrid matchups at low TV, so I expect these guys to finish in the upper half of the bracket, barring some unlucky games and/or an unusual amount of injuries.

Moving into what I think is likely to be top three finishers, IainC's Fursecution are the less developed of the two Skaven teamas. Not that this matters much to rat players, because a long as they have Gutter Runners alive and healthy they will win games. With almost half the teams lacking any skills to handle the fast-paced gameplay, I expect to see some high-scoring games throughout the season. As long as they keep winning the shootouts, the rats should have a realtively easy time of it. The only question for me is which of the two will place higher; Fursecution have some well-balanced development across the board but a slightly smaller roster, but they do have a Guard Rat Ogre, which could be prove to be the deciding factor.

Conversely, Family of Twitch, new player Jaedar's rats have some serious skill stackage onto a single Gutter Runner and a smattering a skills elsewhere, including some juicy doubles. Judging by the selection, I would say that this team favours an aggressive counter-attacking style of play, which will probably suit him well against the low skilled opposition. Again, the matches against fellow rats and the two Human teams will be key, though I suspect that the lack of development on the Stormvermin may end up hurting him.

Last but not least are last season's runners up, rk47's Knights of Codexia. Beaten in a shootout last season (ironically enough) by a Skaven team, I think it is fairly safe to say that he has drawn the 2ez division for Season 8. With plenty of skills, a deep roster and a lack of any plausible competition from the pack of hybrids that make up the rest of the division, it's fairly safe to say the Knights are a shoe-in for the play-offs. Still, stranger things have happened, and some unlucky injuries and ill luck, particularly against the Skaven teams, could see something strange happen to the Human overdogs.


Despite the obvious first place finisher, it is a little tricky to predict how the first division will turn out, seeing as I've no idea about the skill level of the new coaches. With that in mind, my prediction for the top four is as follows:

1 - Knights of Codexia. Not much to say here - likely to win quite handily, these guys will be looking to repeat their solid run from last season.
2 - Family of Twitch. I have a good feeling about these rats, and I believe that they have the best shot of being the other possible 1st place finisher.
3 - Fursecution. I've known IainC as a player for a while now, and while he is a solid coach, I suspect that his tendency to get flustered by dice may cost him a game here or there. He will squeak his way into plenty of wins though.
4 - Secret Military Unicorn. It's hard to rate a player without knowing much about him, so I will have to go on the strength of his TV, skill selection and the consistent play one can come to expect from human teams. It is a close call however, as Satael's Chaos, as well as the Muscle Daddies could create some problems in this last slot.

[Megrim]

Division 2 - something something something (which one is this?)

While papa Nurgle squats somewhat disconcertingly atop this heap, Div2 is also a relatively well-balanced affair, outlier notwithstanding.

Again, going from lowest (bravest) to highest, we have newcomer Wolven86 with a rookie Chaos team. Don't know anything about the guy, but team with no skills + division full of bash = a very bad time. Still, all the best to the fellow and hopefully number 87 will learn from his past iteration's mistakes. If he sticks around after this season is done, he will be looking to mostly preserve the team and build up into the future seasons.

Next up the ladder is Carnifex's Bidge Burners, one of the few Necromantic teams we have playing this season. The Necros have traditionally had a pretty good time in the league, making it consistently into the playoffs and while this team does have a low team value, it is a little deceptive, as there are a pair of decent wolves under there (one is defective somewhat) and other positionals that are starting to be well developed. Carnifex is a solid coach as well, so while I don't expect the Burners to overcome the other teams in the league easily, these guys are definitely on the watch list.

Tied in team value for the next two slots are the two halves of a shit sandwich. Sorry fellas, ain't no easy way to put it. One of you is playing Dwarves, the other is playing Dark Elves. Now, one might ask "what's wrong with Dark Elves? They aren't like the other flavours of elves, they kill people!" Well, for those of you who haven't been around for a little while; this league has a, shall we say 'history' with Dark Elf teams. We loooooooooooooooooove Dark Elf teams, don't we ladies? Banter aside, Keep Rolling are willisterman's Dwarves. They don't actually look all that fearsome on paper as they have some injuries, aren't all that well developed and are missing a Blitzer. Still, with inducements and a bit of luck, they will be intending to put up a stiff fight in every game. Piloted by Strazos, the Effing Elves are his partners in crime. Middling TV, a little bit of development here and there as well as a potentially frightening Witch means that they are in the same boat. Unlikely to win big but will put up points - keep in mind though that Strazos has featured in the top 10 of the overall skill rankings for quite a while.

Moving on up we have Proudfoot's Burrowing Beetles, the lone Khemri contender. These guys have been around for a while (haha) and in true Khemri fashion, boy do they develop slow. Being the proud holder of the "No-Ra" award and having had some issues with losing players to Decay, this team is probably not going to do anything more exciting than pick up a ball every now and again; but regardless, I will be cheering for Proudfoot because seriously, he is playing Khemri.

A close 10 points up is JRuvaldt's The First Ladies, the Chaos Dwarves. Having already beaten the league once with a lawn mowing oriented strategy, Ruvaldt knows a good thing when he sees it. Still in the process of being developed however, the First Ladies are likely to see another couple of seasons before they make the run for the premiership. A good team, played by a good player, the Chaos Dwarves will probably cause a couple of upsets and should be one of the top four teams in the group.

Second-highest in the division are Ericswiftblade's Camp-town Ork Boys. Having been around for at least two seasons (iirc) now, I think these Orks are finally starting to build up steam. With only one Black Ork lacking development, the rest of the team carries a nice spread of skills. Off the top of my head I can't recall how well they have played in the past, but I suspect that as any Ork team tends to do - if they stick to a fist-to-face kind of plan and stay cool, they are bound to win games.

Finally we come to the top of the pile. Avaia's Bleating are veterans, and will be looking to secure their spot in the play-offs after the regular games are done. The astute observer might notice that the team isn't without injuries, but then you might also say that an entire Nurgle team is one big walking tourniquet. His Warriors are in good shape, he has at least one can-opener and the Pestigor core is also relatively healthy. The team's natural defences against passing attacks and elves aren't going to come into play very much in the regular season, but they could be trouble for any dash teams that make it through. Expect to see Bleating in the top four.


Predictions for the top four are below. I suspect that I will be wrong about most of these, because while I can see some obvious winners and losers on paper, the coaches playing the teams are, I think, going to play a bigger role in the final tally.

1 - The First Ladies. If the Bull Centaurs and Dorfs stay healthy, I suspect Ruvaldt will come up with the highest point total.
2 - Bleating. Mass into momentum, the Nurgle juggernaut will break enough limbs along the way to get second.
3 - Bridge Burners. Whoa whoa whoa, the fuck is he smoking. Yes, I know a low-TV Necro placing third is a long shot, but bear with me.
4 - Camp-town Ork Boys. In actuality I think this is equally likely to be either the Dark Elves, Orks or Khemri if they get the rub of the green, but I'll tip the Orks due to higher number of skills.

[Megrim]

Reserved for Div3

[Darth Roxor]

Secret Military Unicorn

Union. It's Union, dammit!

It's hard to rate a player without knowing much about him, so I will have to go on the strength of his TV, skill selection and the consistent play one can come to expect from human teams

NP, I suck badly, so I'll probably end up superlow 

[rk47]

Div 3 prediction : stan bush will die

[Sir T]

Well, I predicted I would be playing, then my computer committed suicide so... 

[stabby the mime]

Div 3 prediction : stan bush will die

Seeing as the name 'Stan Bush' does refer to a bunch of Zombies and other Undead ... oops, I'm sorry, others of the non-breathing persuasion, in this case I think you're a little late to the party here. 

But yeah, I'm totally going to get murderated. 

[rk47]

[lamaros]

My halfhearted predictions!

Div 1 is a hard one to pick. Megrim is obviously the best player, but he has a clean slate. rk47 I thought lucked it in a bit last season in the regular games, but then he went on to nearly win the lot so... either I have no idea, he got better fast, or his luck is about to run out. But he has a built side and the rest of the division is a bit.. well... so I think he will make it to. Otherwise I'm going to give it to IainC, who should run enough rings in this group (post the 'rankings' commish! we demand transparency!), and Darth Roxxor, for no reason other than Humans with a few skills seem to good team to face a bunch of battered rats and newbie bashers.

Megrim, rk47, IainC and Darth Roxxor to make it out of the group, in that order.

In Division 2 you knock two teams out easily. Sorry, Chaos without skills ain't going to cut it. And the Beetles are only veterans of losing. Then you come down to decent teams with skills about the place. Ruvaldt is too good to miss out, while strazos has tried on a bit of easymode this time around. Even with the strange choice of MB on a witch elf he'll still do enough. Carnifex should have enough skill to make a go of the necromantic side, while the last point I'm throwing to avaia over swiftblade due to the power of bash. Dwarves can go die in the corner as far as I'm concerned.

Ruvaldt, Strazos, Carnifex, and Avaia, in that order.

Division three is where all the fun really is, though. Four sides with TV pretty much at 2000+ is just silly. Really quite not on. And this group is clearly the most skilled division to boot. How is it that Ingmar, Teleku, Ulysses and I are in the same group? If that's not the four that makes it out (Yes, I'm putting myself up there) then it can only be because Reborne has ruined someone's day, or Gruntle has finally discovered the fine art of bashing to victory (and hey, he did make finals last year). Justice would see Teleku's elves die repeatedly - as punishment for having so little imagination to continue to play them so many seasons in - but even then it probably won't make a difference.

Ulysses, Teleku, Ingmar, and I. In hopefully not that order...

[lamaros]

But really, the seedings are a bit whack. ;)

[IainC]

I used the last seedings (post Season 6) except I merged tiers 2 and 3, to create a new tier 3 with the old Top Tier as the new Tier 1. Most of the people in Tier Noob moved into tier 3 except for Rk47 who moved into the new Tier 2.

[Teleku]

Division three is where all the fun really is, though. Four sides with TV pretty much at 2000+ is just silly. Really quite not on. And this group is clearly the most skilled division to boot. How is it that Ingmar, Teleku, Ulysses and I are in the same group? If that's not the four that makes it out (Yes, I'm putting myself up there) then it can only be because Reborne has ruined someone's day, or Gruntle has finally discovered the fine art of bashing to victory (and hey, he did make finals last year). Justice would see Teleku's elves die repeatedly - as punishment for having so little imagination to continue to play them so many seasons in - but even then it probably won't make a difference.

Ulysses, Teleku, Ingmar, and I. In hopefully not that order...

Justice would see me prevail over all of you weak willed ninnies who don't have the fortitude or sense of tradition to pick a team and stick with it across a mature long running league.  The NFL doesn't just let new teams hop in and out every season!!


 

[Teleku]

woops, double post.

[eldaec]

Division three is where all the fun really is, though. Four sides with TV pretty much at 2000+ is just silly. Really quite not on. And this group is clearly the most skilled division to boot. How is it that Ingmar, Teleku, Ulysses and I are in the same group? If that's not the four that makes it out (Yes, I'm putting myself up there) then it can only be because Reborne has ruined someone's day, or Gruntle has finally discovered the fine art of bashing to victory (and hey, he did make finals last year). Justice would see Teleku's elves die repeatedly - as punishment for having so little imagination to continue to play them so many seasons in - but even then it probably won't make a difference.

Ulysses, Teleku, Ingmar, and I. In hopefully not that order...

Justice would see me prevail over all of you weak willed ninnies who don't have the fortitude or sense of tradition to pick a team and stick with it across a mature long running league.  The NFL doesn't just let new teams hop in and out every season!!


 

Cheddar Persille will return next season.

[Ruvaldt]

I was tempted to bring back The Presidents.  Seeing Millard Fillmore reach max level would be a dream come true.

I'm glad I didn't though, and I'm also glad you chose to use a different team after your championship, Eldaec.  Having some team turnover is good for the health of the league, especially when championship teams become so dominant.

[eldaec]

Yeah, the convention of not defending a title is a good one, not least as having a team win 2 on the bounce just sucks the life out of the playoffs.

That said, Cheddar reached level 7 on turn 15 of the final, and I haven't even had a reason to pick the skill, so I'm damn well bringing them back at some point!

[willisterman]

Dwarves can go die in the corner as far as I'm concerned.

Boo! What's wrong with dorfs? :p

[avaia]

I am prepared to defend my failoff title.  I'd like to make it a full 2 seasons undefated.   

[lamaros]

I used the last seedings (post Season 6) except I merged tiers 2 and 3, to create a new tier 3 with the old Top Tier as the new Tier 1. Most of the people in Tier Noob moved into tier 3 except for Rk47 who moved into the new Tier 2.

Just mucking around :) there's always going to be a bit of variation just from luck of the draw. Going off last seasons results it should be Ingmat who is worried! Though my underworld side isn't looking as strong as they seemed now they're up against Ulysses...

[Megrim]

Dwarves can go die in the corner as far as I'm concerned.

Boo! What's wrong with dorfs? :p

I actually think that Dwarves are pretty cool, and are quite hard to play against good players, especially at higher TVs. They are short though, so easy to pick on 

Lamaros, I just realised you tipped me to win the Division. I have literally never played Khorne before. srsly.

[lamaros]

Dwarves can go die in the corner as far as I'm concerned.

Boo! What's wrong with dorfs? :p

I actually think that Dwarves are pretty cool, and are quite hard to play against good players, especially at higher TVs. They are short though, so easy to pick on 

Lamaros, I just realised you tipped me to win the Division. I have literally never played Khorne before. srsly.

Yeah but everyone else in your group is rubbish. 

Plus I think Khorne is pretty decent from my limited time with them. A couple of skills in they'll be doing quite nicely.

Dwarves I find really boring to play with and against. Plus my Skaven memory is still strong.

[rk47]

Yeah but everyone else in your group is rubbish. 

Yeah, Jaedar and Roxor obviously shouldn't have joined this elite league.

[Ulysees]

Just had a look at the in game tables to get an over view of the TV ratings for the teams and I sort of agree with lamaros in that division 3 on paper has the most predictable outcomes but in practice with the skill levels of the players in this division, with only 1 unknown element in the form of Stabby I wouldn't be surprised at there being a few surprise results as the regular season plays out. Ingmar, Brooktoon and Teleku all have good records against me, so even with fresher teams than their veteran ones there are no games here that I think are going to be anything like a surefire win for me and I expect that to apply to everyone else in my division, should be a lot of fun regardless and I can see a lot of teams being a lot weaker coming out of this regular round of matches and heading into the playoffs/failoffs than when they started.

Qualifyers: Ulysees, Teleku, Gruntle and Ingmar (but I only expect 2 of these to be right and not necessarily one of those to be me)

Division 1 has only 1 really outstanding team in the form of RK47's Knights of Codexia who I would expect to qualify without too much trouble, all the other teams are close enough in TV and for the most part skill level that the dice on the day will decide the outcome of the matches (so IainC is fucked! ) and the unkown element of 2 new players in the league make predictions mere guesswork.

Qualifyers: RK47, Drogg, IainC and Megrim

Division 2 is even more balanced than division 1 in my opinion, Ruvadlt is nailed on for a spot, guy is a wizard at bloodbowl in my experience, but there are a lot of competant coaches in this division and only 1 unknown, though playing a fresh Chaos team will most likely be a lesson in frustration if it's anything like my experience from the D+M tourney. For the rest I think Carnifex, Avaia and Ericswiftblade will make the early running and be the best bets but we all know how fickle BB can be (so why the fuck would you choose Khemri Proudft!!!) so expect upsets to occur here too.

Qualifyers: Ruvaldt, Carnifex, Ericswiftblade and Avaia

[drogg]

Dwarves can go die in the corner as far as I'm concerned.

Boo! What's wrong with dorfs? :p

I actually think that Dwarves are pretty cool, and are quite hard to play against good players, especially at higher TVs. They are short though, so easy to pick on 

Lamaros, I just realised you tipped me to win the Division. I have literally never played Khorne before. srsly.

Yeah but everyone else in your group is rubbish. 

Plus I think Khorne is pretty decent from my limited time with them. A couple of skills in they'll be doing quite nicely.

Dwarves I find really boring to play with and against. Plus my Skaven memory is still strong.

what about drogg's khorne team 

[lamaros]

You got a few injuries iirc?

[Megrim]

Ha, I have just realised that I'd completely forgotten to cover Division 3. Apologies for that gents, you will not be missed next time.

As we near the end of the regular season, lets have a look at how things have developed.

In Div3, we've got what I probably would have picked as the top two seeds anyway, Ingmar's Banned, and Ulysees' Minizillas. Gruntle's developed Chaos is up next, but beyond that it looks to have been a bit of a messy race. Teleku, predictably, does well enough throughout the season (though by the low point total I suspect that S8 had been harder than most), but whether he can improve his traditional performance in the elimination rounds remains to be seen.

With the Ogres and an errant chorf team lurking in the middle of the pack, the brave Stabby and valiant Lamaros bring up the rear. Props to the Underworld for trying, they are a hard team to play. Better luck next season if you decide to stick with them.

Stabby - you placed lower than the ogre team. I salute you.

o7






In Div2 I appear to have picked three out of four correctly, with the optional DE pick actually making it in as well. The only one to let me down was Ruvaldt who choked four games and didn't mak the play-offs. He wins the "Snapped Like A Cheap Matchstick Award". That's what you get for playing another clawpomb team, scum.

Ahem. Bleating placed first, so it will be interesting to see how the Nurgle fare in the next round, though I suspect they might not make it through. The Dark Elves are in as well, making them the only other Elf team in the playoffs - seriously, what's with all the elf hate people? It's almost like none of you want to win games or something. The next two slots look to still be in contention, so my predictions may end up incorrect, but the orks and Bridgebruners will probably push through to the finish-line.



Finally, in Division 1 we have the cleanest set of results, with the Human wombo-combo of Codexians and Secret Military Unicorn securing their berths, while the rats of Twitch take top honours. The cheese is strong with that one.

The top four can relax and look forward to the play-off seedings.

[Strazos]

No idea why people were hating on my team so much - Won my division, much to my chagrin.

Now I have to face all the other built-up teams, instead of doing more team-building in the failoffs.

Hopefully my patented Cheater Elf will see me through. 

[lamaros]

With the Ogres and an errant chorf team lurking in the middle of the pack, the brave Stabby and valiant Lamaros bring up the rear. Props to the Underworld for trying, they are a hard team to play. Better luck next season if you decide to stick with them.

Hey, I won my div last season with this side, I don't need your pity!  

Shocker of a season for me though. I got nuffled in one game, had to quit halfway through another, and played god awful to only scrape one draw from three winable situations. Granted that's always a chance with Underworld, but I was pretty pissed off at myself.

Not going to give them another run around though. Two seasons with a side seems to be about my limit. Skaven > Goblins > Underworld. Maybe time to start climbing back up to an actually decent side...

I'm looking at 3 out of 4 in each division. IainC, Ruvaldt and myself letting the team down...

[Megrim]

Allrighty then, we are into the Play-offs.

Predictions for the regular season seem to have worked out pretty accurately, so let's see if we can keep the streak going. As always, these are my opinions and they are not meant to be (overtly) critical. Also, I've not looked at the rosters and skillpicks.


1st round:

Family of Twitch v Burrowing Beetles

In theory, the rats should be through easy. That isn't to say that it may necessarily be an easy match, but typically the Khemri would have to play a near-perfect positional game as-well-as get lucky with the CAS dice, whereas all the Skaven have to do is give the ball to a Gutter Runner. I don't know if there is anything particular to say about the coaches involved in this game as they are relatively evenly balanced, though I recall that proudfoot has a tendency to be a bit rushed sometimes, whereas from the little that I've seen Jaedar play, he sometimes has a tendency to over-extend. Ultimately I think, I would like the Khemri to go through because it's Khemri and they are the underdogs, but realistically I think the rats will win this.


The First Ladies v Huitzilopochtil's Gift

I'm not a fan of predicting the outcomes of my own games, let's put it that way. Ruvaldt and I have played plenty before, and we both know each other's play style pretty well. I don't like chorfs, both in theory and on the pitch, but given a completely even level of coaching skill I would not be inclined to tip the Khorne. Having said that though, not all things are even in this matchup. I think we both know that block dice are going to be important and that the side which picks up a numbers advantage will dominate that half. He is also up on me in TV and skills, so I think this will be an uphill battle for my daemons.


Bleating v Nifty Helmets

This is Chaos against Chaos, isn't it? Or is it Nurgle and Chaos? Either way, this is a slugfest and the two players are about equally matched in skill as well, so I would not be surprised if the game went into overtime. I'm really struggling to come up with anything else to say. Game will come down to block dice, first posession and maybe some goats running away - the end result is likely to go either way, though I lean towards Bleating.


The Minizilla's v Fursecution

I don't think anyone who draws the developed lizard team is ever happy about it, especially in the first round. On top of this, Iain's rats are a bit bruised if I recall, making the game even more of an uphill struggle. The best way to deal with lizards tends to be to de-pitch a few saurii, but on top of the TV disadvantage, to my memory the rats don't possess any real means of removing pieces from the pitch. Combine this with Iain's tendency towards passing play, we are likely to see a number of turn-overs, a lot of scrambling and a few touchdowns. Lizardmen to advance through.


Effing Elves v Hazardous Hippies

What is it with mirror matches this season? It's like we don't want a all-elf final or something. The Hippies have historically done well in regulation and have struggled in play-offs, and I do not think the pattern is likely to change here. While they are the overdogs, I think Strazos will play more consistently and control the ball better, giving him the edge. In addition, I suspect that there might just be a wee bit of bloat on the HH team which will lead to some unnecessary inducements being given away. Having said that though, never underestimate the power of MV8 AG4 cheese, so if Teleku gets ahead it is entirely possible that he will stay ahead. However, my money is on the Effing Elves.


The Banned v Team Power Volcano

With two relatively equally matched coaches, this game (I think) is likely to be one of the more entertaining ones. Chorf plays control with a side of bash and some manoeuvring around the edges, whilst Necto tends to do the whole stick & move thing really well. Both sides have some bite to them as well; if the Necro can open up some space with a couple of lucky CAS, they should be able to gain the upper hand in scoring opportunity, but conversely, if they lose some players early to the Chaos Dwarf machine, they will be struggling to make a dent should the chorfs choose to curl up and sit on the ball. Hard to pick a outright winners, but I will go with Ingmar.


Knights of Codexia v The Camp-town OrcBoyz




[F13]BridgeBurners v Secret Military Unicorn

I don't actually remember which race the Burners are, so I'm going to go with them over the Human team. Because reasons.

Should have payed more attention to this one - didn't realise it was a 16000TV Necro team =p

[Jaedar]

There is no such thing as overextending with rats!

I predict I will make it to semifinals and lose to nurgle/lizards.