NFL 2012

[Sjofn]

This may be the first time I have no interest ever.

I swear to God, it feels like you say this every season.

[Cyrrex]

YEAH BUT THIS IS THE FIRST TIME HE REALLY, REALLY MEANS IT!!

For me, once the final 4 was established...this may have been the only outcome that made it even a little bit interesting.  I like Nice Harbaugh.  I fucking HATE Mean Harbaugh.  Fuck that guy.

The only problem is that Ray Lewis still exists.

[Sjofn]

I hate both the Ravens and the Patriots, so I was going to root for whoever the NFC team was anyway. It's just a happy coincidence it's Ingmar's team this year. 

(I DID try to console him last year with a "I promise, you guys can go to the Superbowl NEXT year." And he scoffed! He scoffed at my powers!)

[JWIV]

Get ready for 2 weeks of nothing but feel good stories about the Harbough brothers and Ray Lewis.

It's either that, or we'd be listening to how AWESOME Brady and Belicheck are for the millionth time.  It's not like the NFL actually bothers to come up with any new storylines ever.  

Also

[ghost]

I hate both the Ravens and the Patriots, so I was going to root for whoever the NFC team was anyway. It's just a happy coincidence it's Ingmar's team this year. 

(I DID try to console him last year with a "I promise, you guys can go to the Superbowl NEXT year." And he scoffed! He scoffed at my powers!)

Should have been pulling for the Patriots.  I think the 49ers would have a better shot against them.

[Paelos]

This may be the first time I have no interest ever.

I swear to God, it feels like you say this every season.

Only because I said it last year about the Giants and the Patriots  

Seriously, though. These last 2 Super Bowls have been tough sells down here. The G-Men/Pats matchup was all northern wankery with no good guys. This matchup has small market East town v. old powerhouse from the West. Neither QB is really that compelling other than the fact CK is a running rook. The brothers Harbaugh can only be played so far since they don't actually play the game. Ray Lewis is generally unlikeable by half the populace.

The last Super Bowl that intrigued me was the Saints. Although watching Aaron Rodgers and the Pack was pretty good after the Favre shit.

[ghost]

Baltimore is small market?

[JWIV]

Baltimore is small market?

We're not New York or Boston so don't count to most people. 

[ghost]

Well, yeah, but the Washington/Baltimore/Northern Virginia metropolitan area is about 6 million people, good for 7th largest in the country.  That doesn't sound like "small market" to me.

[JWIV]

Well, yeah, but the Washington/Baltimore/Northern Virginia metropolitan area is about 6 million people, good for 7th largest in the country.  That doesn't sound like "small market" to me.

Washington and NoVA are Redskins territory, though basically it's an ongoing debate if you lump Baltimore and DC together or not.

[ghost]

It's lumped together for statistical purposes by the gubment, but I know there's fierce loyalty for the individual towns.  Two of my very good college friends (The O'Leary brothers  ) are from Baltimore.  They would cut me from navel to neck if I said they were from DC, so I get your drift.  There's probably a lot of spillover though.  The metroplex is huge

[Paelos]

Baltimore is smaller market because while they crush their local market in ratings, their appeal across the nation is smaller than SF, Green Bay, Dallas, Pittsburgh, New York, Boston, or Denver. Also, they have a torn base with the Redskins.

[Nevermore]

On the one hand, how the hell did Baltimore end up in the Superbowl this year?  On the other, I HATE the Patriots so I'm ok with it.

Also:

[ghost]

Baltimore is smaller market because while they crush their local market in ratings, their appeal across the nation is smaller than SF, Green Bay, Dallas, Pittsburgh, New York, Boston, or Denver. Also, they have a torn base with the Redskins.

That sounds like more of a problem with execution.   

[Paelos]

On the one hand, how the hell did Baltimore end up in the Superbowl this year?

It's a good question because nobody saw it coming. However, we should have. The game last year came down to one kick. This year Flacco improved his passer rating in the regular season by 7 points, and Ray Rice was just as effective in the rush game. New England never really formed much of a defense, and they relied entirely on outscoring people.

For one thing, the Pats got in the red zone 6 times and only had 1 TD. That's all about the bend don't break defense of the Ravens. The other thing was the Ravens absolutely crushed the Patriots in the 3rd quarter. I mean it was so lopsided it was ridiculous. The Ravens in the 3rd quarter had the ball for 11 minutes, 26 plays, and 2 TDs. The Pats had the ball for 4 minutes and only got 55 yards. The game was won in the third quarter.

[WayAbvPar]

On the one hand, how the hell did Baltimore end up in the Superbowl this year?  On the other, I HATE the Patriots so I'm ok with it.

Also:

 

[Megrim]

On the one hand, how the hell did Baltimore end up in the Superbowl this year?

It's a good question because nobody saw it coming. However, we should have. The game last year came down to one kick. This year Flacco improved his passer rating in the regular season by 7 points, and Ray Rice was just as effective in the rush game. New England never really formed much of a defense, and they relied entirely on outscoring people.

For one thing, the Pats got in the red zone 6 times and only had 1 TD. That's all about the bend don't break defense of the Ravens. The other thing was the Ravens absolutely crushed the Patriots in the 3rd quarter. I mean it was so lopsided it was ridiculous. The Ravens in the 3rd quarter had the ball for 11 minutes, 26 plays, and 2 TDs. The Pats had the ball for 4 minutes and only got 55 yards. The game was won in the third quarter.

One of the commentators even called it going into half-time: Ravens needed to make adjustments, such as letting Flacco throw the ball. They evidently did, whereas NE didn't revise or alter strategy at all, and got smoked.

[Sjofn]

On the one hand, how the hell did Baltimore end up in the Superbowl this year?  On the other, I HATE the Patriots so I'm ok with it.

Also:

I love the look on Eli's face.

[Paelos]

Interesting stat about the Falcons. In terms of points scored per quarter this season:

1st quarter - 6th in the league
2nd quarter - 4th in the league
3rd quarter - 24th in the league
4th quarter - 8th in the league

I think that sums up their problem. They make terrible adjustments after half time, and lose the momentum totally.

[ghost]

I think I'd like to see those stats for defense as well. 

[Ingmar]

It's also worth wondering if they had an unusual number of coin flip/choice results that ended up in them having to kick to start the 2nd half. The sample sizes involved here are small enough to make a stat like that pretty iffy to draw conclusions about.

[K9]

That's an interesting stat. For comparison, Denver go 18th-10th-1st-4th, which I guess might tally with Peyton Manning getting a feel for the other team's D, and then really opening up after half time?

[K9]

I think I'd like to see those stats for defense as well. 

Look here

Falcons go: 3rd > 30th > 28th > 1st

Which is just fucking weird.

Baltimore go: 18th > 17th > 21st > 6th
49ers go: 12th > 2nd > 4th > 11th

As Ingmar says, small sample sizes mean that you can't infer too heavily on this, and a lot of the samples are pretty close and aren't likely to be significantly different. Although I would hazard that Denver's average of 9.4 points in the third quarter is noteworthy, given that it's 2.5 points above the next best team (Saints). The margins are far closer everywhere else.

[Ingmar]

I suspect they will correlate fairly strongly to time of possession by quarter, if that's available.

[Paelos]

I suspect they will correlate fairly strongly to time of possession by quarter, if that's available.

Perhaps, it's just odd to see an imbalance like that.

[Ingmar]

Well, a correlation like that wouldn't rule out your conclusion at all, so there might be something there still.

[K9]

I suspect they will correlate fairly strongly to time of possession by quarter, if that's available.

I'm not sure it should; you can have a low possession percentage because you are driving the ball so fast, or because you are failing to convert downs. I suspect that down conversion percentages by quarter would be more telling, but this website doesn't seem to list those.

For reference though, here are the possession percentages and points scored by quarter for the Falcons, Pats and Broncos.

Code:

Falcons:

1st:	55.46% (5th)	6.2 (6th)	
2nd:	50.43% (16th)	8.6 (4th)
3rd:	43.96% (31st)	4.2 (24th)
4th:	56.10% (3rd)	7.3 (8th)

Patriots:

1st:	45.38% (30th)	6.8 (1st)
2nd:	50.80% (13th)	10.9 (1st)
3rd:	54.36% (6th)	6.5 (3rd)
4th:	52.55% (11th)	9.5 (2nd)

Broncos:

1st:	50.99% (11th)	4.7 (18th)
2nd:	51.24% (11th)	7.2 (10th)
3rd:	47.32% (25th)	9.4 (1st)
4th:	59.85% (1st)	9.0 (4th)

As you can see, the Pats have low first quarter possession because they score fast, whereas the Falcons have low third quarter possession because they fail to score. At least, that's how I would read this.

[ghost]

Falcons go: 3rd > 30th > 28th > 1st

Which is just fucking weird.

Baltimore go: 18th > 17th > 21st > 6th
49ers go: 12th > 2nd > 4th > 11th

As Ingmar says, small sample sizes mean that you can't infer too heavily on this, and a lot of the samples are pretty close and aren't likely to be significantly different. Although I would hazard that Denver's average of 9.4 points in the third quarter is noteworthy, given that it's 2.5 points above the next best team (Saints). The margins are far closer everywhere else.

Hence why I wanted to seeing before rendering a verdict.  I think it's incontrovertible that they sucked after halftime, regardless.

[Ingmar]

The Patriots are sort of a special case I think, just because they're running no huddle so much of the time, on top of not having much of a running game.

That said there sure doesn't seem to be as much of a correlation as I would have guessed.

[Megrim]

So why does everyone hate the Patriots anyway? Is it 'cause Brady is so dreamy?

[Ingmar]

There's a whole laundry list of reasons, people pick and choose from them in their own personal way.

1) They win too much and too often, so people tend to hate the frontrunner.
2) Belichek comes across as extremely unlikeable, and there's a side dish of people who think his informal dress is somehow inappropriate.
3) They're a New England sports team, and that makes them very hateable, especially because of their success around the same time as the Red Sox Series wins in 2004 and 2007, the Celtics in 2008, the Bruins in 2011, etc. New England people got very insufferable about their sports teams during that run of things going so well for them. (We could be next in San Francisco!)
4) Various flavors of Tom Brady hair hate/hot wife jealousy/whatever/etc.
5) Brady threatens to ruin the game by tying Joe Montana's number of Super Bowl wins, which is a sacrosanct record that must not be sullied. (OK maybe that one is just me.)

[K9]

After reviewing more of the stats, I think the most pertinent is the fact that the Eagles only managed to score an average of 1.9 fucking points in the first quarter of their games.

[Sjofn]

I mostly hate the Patriots due to the one-two punch of New England Team and how fucking sick of them I got during their 18-1 ( ) season.

Brady is alarmingly good looking, though. It's not a reason I hate them, I just find it utterly surreal for some reason.

[K9]

I normally keep quiet about the Pats because I'm not on the bandwagon when it comes to hate.

Personally I kind of like the way they do well by being rounded, especially because a lot of their best players seem to be somewhat oddball, mid-round picks who have found a niche. In a way it's a shame Tebow didn't land there (he still might I guess) because Belichek seems like the sort of coach who could turn him into something, even if that something is Gronk's backup.

Reasons to love the Pats:

1) Wes Welker's press conference where he makes constant references to feet.

[Tannhauser]

I hate the Patriots.  I hate Belechek. I hate ESPN fawning over Brady.  I don't hate Brady.  In fact, I kind of like him.  He's got a supermodel wife, a kid, millions and seems pretty cool.  But on the field I root for him to fail.