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Author Topic: 2012 March Madness (and the buildup to said event)  (Read 16293 times)
ghost
The Dentist
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on: February 22, 2012, 11:04:30 AM

So basketball is really heating up right now.  There have been some good games.  It looks like K-State punched their ticket to the dance by sweeping Missouri this year.  I thought it would be good to look at some of the contenders and make some predictions.   ACK!

Contenders:

Potential Cindarellas:


Teams I don't like at all:


So my prediction for a final four is Duke, Kansas, Kentucky and a fourth odd team.  For the fourth team I like Florida State and Vanderbilt. 

I'll predict a final game rematch of Kentucky versus Kansas with Calipari finally taking one home. 
Paelos
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Reply #1 on: February 22, 2012, 12:08:04 PM

I don't put Louisville as low. Nor do I believe Syracuse is for real.

Kentucky is good but flawed. They like to come out flat at times and play catchup. Terrence Jones is a terrible FT shooter for a forward, and a ton of their offense is predicated on Lamb making 3s.

I love Duke's team this year, except for Mason Plumlee. That dude feasts on bad teams, but he's also been fading down the stretch. He's great for rebounds, but I need some points out of the guy to balance him out.

Mizzou sucks. Put any kind of big team on them and they will get beaten to death. Play run and gun with them, and you'll foul out before 8m left in the game.

Who knows about Kansas. Most of the Big 12 doesn't get to play on TV, and with Mizzou and Baylor getting exposed down the stretch, I'm not sure they have quality wins over anybody I give a shit about.

Ohio State plays the most boring brand of basketball I think I've ever seen. If you watched that trainwreck against Michigan, you know exactly what I mean. Oh my god, the Big 10 produces the most unwatchable games I've had the misfortune of seeing. I hate this team and don't believe they belong in the top 10.

My favorite teams? Duke, UNC, Michigan State, Florida State, and probably Louisville because of their rebounding.

CPA, Sports blogger, Mount and Blade enthusiast
Braves by the Numbers, my sports blog
ghost
The Dentist
Posts: 10579


Reply #2 on: February 22, 2012, 03:57:32 PM

Here's a little story on ESPN about Thomas Robinson and his story.  It makes you want to get on his bandwagon.  Being left in charge of a 9 year old little girl would be tough enough in college, let alone when you've got to play high level basketball. 

Paelos
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Reply #3 on: February 26, 2012, 05:00:02 PM

Oh look, Ohio State did exactly what they do when faced with decent teams late in the year. Lay an egg.

CPA, Sports blogger, Mount and Blade enthusiast
Braves by the Numbers, my sports blog
ghost
The Dentist
Posts: 10579


Reply #4 on: February 26, 2012, 05:16:03 PM

Ohio State sucks.  They're looking like a 4 or 5 seed right now.

Duke and Missouri have looked shaky as well.  Both teams shoot a shit ton of threes and when they go up against a good defense it's going to be rough going.  I just don't trust teams that shoot 25 plus three pointers in a night.
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Reply #5 on: February 26, 2012, 05:17:56 PM

Ohio State sucks.  They're looking like a 4 or 5 seed right now.

Those two sentences are incompatible.


The Transcendent One: AH... THE ROGUE CONSTRUCT.
Nordom: Sense of closure: imminent.
ghost
The Dentist
Posts: 10579


Reply #6 on: February 26, 2012, 05:24:23 PM

Okay, so they suck relative to what they have been ranked all year.  They're overrated.  Does that make you feel better?   awesome, for real

Your Cal team is looking decent. 
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Reply #7 on: February 26, 2012, 05:25:35 PM

Yeah although the Pac-12 is really getting no love this year (not that it necessarily deserves any.) I don't really see us getting more than about an 8 or 9 seed.

The Transcendent One: AH... THE ROGUE CONSTRUCT.
Nordom: Sense of closure: imminent.
ghost
The Dentist
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Reply #8 on: February 26, 2012, 05:32:26 PM

Yes, but Cal, on the other hand, doesn't suck.  Both Cal and UW have a lot of talent and could easily take down a 1 seed.  I think there are 5 former top 30 recruits on UW's team.  Nobody wants to draw them in the second round. 
Paelos
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Reply #9 on: February 26, 2012, 09:48:44 PM

Yeah although the Pac-12 is really getting no love this year (not that it necessarily deserves any.) I don't really see us getting more than about an 8 or 9 seed.

You don't get any TV time to speak of. It also doesn't help that Cal, the team with the most wins, got smoked by Missouri by almost 40.

Or that the conference is 0-12 against the top 25.  Ohhhhh, I see.

I didn't even realize that until I looked it up. Good lord. No wonder I never see them on the weeknights.

CPA, Sports blogger, Mount and Blade enthusiast
Braves by the Numbers, my sports blog
ghost
The Dentist
Posts: 10579


Reply #10 on: February 27, 2012, 08:17:40 PM

Well, Kentucky and Syracuse have #1 seeds wrapped up.  I believe that Kansas will have the Midwest seed when all is said and done, which leaves the West for one of the following:  Duke, UNC, Missouri, or Michigan State. 

Out of those four I believe that Michigan State has the best resume, but in reality the final #1 will probably go to whoever wins the Duke/UNC game.  I suppose that Kansas could lose a game and leave Michigan State with the final #1 seed, but I doubt that will happen.  Plus having Thomas Robinson on the team helps with image in a lot of ways and the Big 12 is the better conference this year. 
Paelos
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Reply #11 on: February 27, 2012, 09:03:48 PM

Another "laid egg" alert tonight by Notre Dame. I've never seen a top 25 team only put up 18 points in a first half this season.

CPA, Sports blogger, Mount and Blade enthusiast
Braves by the Numbers, my sports blog
ghost
The Dentist
Posts: 10579


Reply #12 on: February 28, 2012, 07:32:00 AM

That's because Notre Dame is awful.  They are highly overrated.
ghost
The Dentist
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Reply #13 on: March 01, 2012, 09:57:48 PM

Kentucky just destroyed your Bulldogs, Paelos.  They're scary good.
Paelos
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Reply #14 on: March 01, 2012, 10:02:40 PM

Kentucky just destroyed your Bulldogs, Paelos.  They're scary good.

To be fair, my Dawgs are ridiculously bad.

But yes, Kentucky is also stupidly talented. It's absurd. They honestly have no excuse for why they shouldn't win the title other than not having a bench.

CPA, Sports blogger, Mount and Blade enthusiast
Braves by the Numbers, my sports blog
ghost
The Dentist
Posts: 10579


Reply #15 on: March 02, 2012, 06:47:19 AM

Yeah, foul trouble is pretty much the only thing that can slow them down.  When Wiltjer, Miller and Lamb are hitting threes they are pretty much unstoppable.  I have a feeling they would destroy Syracuse's Zone.


Edited to add-  Remember also, Paelos, that this shitty UGa team just beat a very good Florida team by 14 the other day.  So they're not that bad. 
« Last Edit: March 02, 2012, 07:40:55 AM by ghost »
Paelos
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Reply #16 on: March 02, 2012, 09:13:48 AM

Florida isn't that good either. They don't have the consistency needed to do well in a tournament. They lost twice to very average Tennessee team. Their signature win is against Mississippi State. Kentucky destroyed them by 20, and we'll get to see the rematch this weekend. They score a lot of points, so I think people give them a lot of credit, but they don't rebound well and they don't play any form of solid defense. They would get owned by a Big 10 team who wanted to lock them down and slow down the game. I mean they let UGA score 76 points, who is 304th in the nation in scoring and averages 61 a game.

Kentucky is really really good, but you can find more reasons than the UGA and Florida wins. Kentucky has also taken care of UNC, Louisville, and Kansas. They shoot 49% from the field. They block more shots than anybody in the nation and it's just ONE GUY! Lamb shoots 48% from 3 point land. They are redonkulous.

CPA, Sports blogger, Mount and Blade enthusiast
Braves by the Numbers, my sports blog
ghost
The Dentist
Posts: 10579


Reply #17 on: March 05, 2012, 09:51:52 AM

Kentucky looked like a monster, yet again, at Florida on Sunday.

UNC finally played like they should and bitchslapped Duke.  A team with a decent defense is going to beat Duke 7 times out of 10.  I don't see them making it to the final four this year.

And Florida State still remains as the one team nobody wants in their bracket. They could very easily manage a final four run. 
Paelos
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Reply #18 on: March 05, 2012, 10:40:46 AM

Kentucky and UNC are the outright favorites right now. No real flaws to speak of. Just situational stuff.

Then you have Michigan State and Syracuse. Probably one flaw each. Michigan State is vulnerable without Green as proven by Ohio State. Syracuse doesn't bother playing hard on the glass.

After that you start getting into teams with more than just one flaw. Kansas, Mizzou, Ohio State and Duke. Kansas turns the ball over too much and plays inconsistent defense. Mizzou is completely schizoid and can go to pieces if you muscle up on them. Duke lives and dies by the 3 ball, and I don't like the Plumlees. Ohio State, I just don't trust them. They are a boring offense who can get too easily dragged into a slugfest that they will lose.

CPA, Sports blogger, Mount and Blade enthusiast
Braves by the Numbers, my sports blog
ghost
The Dentist
Posts: 10579


Reply #19 on: March 05, 2012, 12:48:06 PM

I would love to see a UK/UNC rematch.  Except for the fact that UNC would probably win.   Ohhhhh, I see.
ghost
The Dentist
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Reply #20 on: March 10, 2012, 01:24:34 PM

The Kentucky-Florida game is pretty fucking epic.  Tune in if you want to see some good basketball.
Malakili
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Reply #21 on: March 10, 2012, 02:00:02 PM

Just watched the last 8 minutes or so of UNC v. NCST - some of the worst officiating I've ever seen in a basketball game.  First they were calling every little ticky tacky bit of contact.  Ok fine, as long as you're consistent I can deal with it, but a bunch of quick whistles had high profile players from both teams fouling out pretty early on.  Then, at the very end of the game in the biggest moment they just put the whistle away on what looked like an obvious charge which sent the defender flying backwards.  Hell, even if it was a blocking foul and not a charge you've got to make the call if you've established that contact much less than that was going to be called.  Anyway, just terrible.  Hate to see games decided by the refs.
Paelos
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Reply #22 on: March 10, 2012, 02:01:04 PM

Luckily NCState is probably in the tournament by now.

CPA, Sports blogger, Mount and Blade enthusiast
Braves by the Numbers, my sports blog
EWSpider
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Reply #23 on: March 10, 2012, 02:42:57 PM

The Kentucky-Florida game is pretty fucking epic.  Tune in if you want to see some good basketball.

$#@%&*#$&!

I thought Florida was going to pull that one off.  Ah well, they at least gave me hope that they won't flame out in the first two rounds of the big tourney.

most often known as Drevik
ghost
The Dentist
Posts: 10579


Reply #24 on: March 10, 2012, 03:19:03 PM

Don't assume that how Florida plays Kentucky is how they will play in the tourney.  They're notorious for giving UK a hard game and then folding like a house of cards the next game.  If they play like they did today, however, they could be a final 8 or final 4 team. 
ghost
The Dentist
Posts: 10579


Reply #25 on: March 10, 2012, 05:32:44 PM

It will be interesting to see what seed Florida State gets if they take down both Duke and UNC to win the ACC title.   awesome, for real

I really think one of the Big Ten schools needs to be a one seed.  Ohio State is looking very good, and MSU has had a great season.  It's the toughest conference this year.  Right now I would pick the following:

1.  Kentucky
2.  Syracuse
3.  Winner of MSU/OSU
4.  UNC if they win, if they don't win Kansas
ghost
The Dentist
Posts: 10579


Reply #26 on: March 11, 2012, 05:27:52 PM

A couple of quick thoughts about the field so far:

1.  UConn is a team that could very likely beat Kentucky.  That's a tough matchup for them, if UConn can beat Iowa State.  Other than that, Duke sucks and the bracket looks pretty weak. 
2.  Michigan State's bracket is fucking ridiculous.  Memphis is the toughest 8 seed, Louisville is playing spectacularly right now, and Missouri is a very, very good team. 
3.  Syracuse's bracket isn't too bad, but Vandy is a team that could give them fits.  They shoot lights out and against a zone........Ohio State is another very good team, and I think they're the best team in that bracket.  I look for them to beat Vandy in the elite 8.
4.  UNC's bracket looks pretty weak too.  Kansas, IMO, is the better team, but I expect both of those teams to duke it out  why so serious? for the final eight.
Paelos
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Reply #27 on: March 11, 2012, 06:52:41 PM

Easiest bracket - UNC's by far. There isn't a single team in that bunch that doesn't have a gigantic set of flaws.
Toughest bracket - Syracuse's bracket has Vandy, Wiscy, FSU, Cincy, and Ohio State. Any of those 6 could win it.

Biggest jokes - Notre Dame as a 7, Texas in the tournament at all, Iowa State as an 8, I'll also toss in the fact that Bama made it (they suck).

Likely winners - Kentucky might have it rough if they fact Indiana, but otherwise, they should make it to the four. UNC could take a half off and still beat most of the teams in their bracket. The other two brackets are wide open.

CPA, Sports blogger, Mount and Blade enthusiast
Braves by the Numbers, my sports blog
ghost
The Dentist
Posts: 10579


Reply #28 on: March 11, 2012, 08:42:21 PM

Yeah, Wichita State is also very, very good. 

I still think the toughest bracket is Michigan State.  Louisville is the best 4 seed.  They won the Big East tournament and have been playing some of the best defense in the field.  Memphis has a ton of talent and is the toughest 8/9 seed.  Florida is playing elite 8 kind of basketball and Missouri is unbelievable when shooting well.  Ohio State is only better than Duke as far as 2 seeds go. 
Paelos
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Reply #29 on: March 11, 2012, 09:47:52 PM

I don't believe in Florida, Ohio State, or Mizzou. They all have potential to go extremely cold and get buried by teams that play actual D. I used to believe in Duke, but I've revised that position given that they lack the killer instinct I want in a winner.

Let's face it, this is UNC's and Kentucky's to lose.

CPA, Sports blogger, Mount and Blade enthusiast
Braves by the Numbers, my sports blog
ghost
The Dentist
Posts: 10579


Reply #30 on: March 11, 2012, 10:13:32 PM

First tier-  UK, UNC
Second tier-  KU, Syracuse, MSU
Third tier-  Ohio State, Missouri

Dark horses-  Louisville, Vanderbilt, Wichita State, Florida State
Ingmar
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Reply #31 on: March 12, 2012, 02:42:33 AM

Play-in game. :vaguely pleased:

The Transcendent One: AH... THE ROGUE CONSTRUCT.
Nordom: Sense of closure: imminent.
ghost
The Dentist
Posts: 10579


Reply #32 on: March 12, 2012, 07:45:59 AM

Yeah, doesn't feel the same, does it? 

I have a suspicion you guys will steam roll South Florida. 
ghost
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Reply #33 on: March 12, 2012, 07:52:33 AM

We doing a bracket this year?
Zar
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Reply #34 on: March 12, 2012, 06:19:58 PM

We certainly should.  Oh ho ho ho. Reallllly?
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