f13.net

So basketball is really heating up right now.  There have been some good games.  It looks like K-State punched their ticket to the dance by sweeping Missouri this year.  I thought it would be good to look at some of the contenders and make some predictions.   :ye_gods:

Contenders:

Potential Cindarellas:


Teams I don't like at all:


So my prediction for a final four is Duke, Kansas, Kentucky and a fourth odd team.  For the fourth team I like Florida State and Vanderbilt. 

I'll predict a final game rematch of Kentucky versus Kansas with Calipari finally taking one home. 

I don't put Louisville as low. Nor do I believe Syracuse is for real.

Kentucky is good but flawed. They like to come out flat at times and play catchup. Terrence Jones is a terrible FT shooter for a forward, and a ton of their offense is predicated on Lamb making 3s.

I love Duke's team this year, except for Mason Plumlee. That dude feasts on bad teams, but he's also been fading down the stretch. He's great for rebounds, but I need some points out of the guy to balance him out.

Mizzou sucks. Put any kind of big team on them and they will get beaten to death. Play run and gun with them, and you'll foul out before 8m left in the game.

Who knows about Kansas. Most of the Big 12 doesn't get to play on TV, and with Mizzou and Baylor getting exposed down the stretch, I'm not sure they have quality wins over anybody I give a shit about.

Ohio State plays the most boring brand of basketball I think I've ever seen. If you watched that trainwreck against Michigan, you know exactly what I mean. Oh my god, the Big 10 produces the most unwatchable games I've had the misfortune of seeing. I hate this team and don't believe they belong in the top 10.

My favorite teams? Duke, UNC, Michigan State, Florida State, and probably Louisville because of their rebounding.

Here's a little story on ESPN about Thomas Robinson and his story (http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/7594884/kansas-jayhawks-coach-bill-self-tough-love-made-all-difference-thomas-robinson-life-college-basketball).  It makes you want to get on his bandwagon.  Being left in charge of a 9 year old little girl would be tough enough in college, let alone when you've got to play high level basketball. 

Oh look, Ohio State did exactly what they do when faced with decent teams late in the year. Lay an egg.

Ohio State sucks.  They're looking like a 4 or 5 seed right now.

Duke and Missouri have looked shaky as well.  Both teams shoot a shit ton of threes and when they go up against a good defense it's going to be rough going.  I just don't trust teams that shoot 25 plus three pointers in a night.

Those two sentences are incompatible.

Okay, so they suck relative to what they have been ranked all year.  They're overrated.  Does that make you feel better?   :awesome_for_real:

Your Cal team is looking decent. 

Yeah although the Pac-12 is really getting no love this year (not that it necessarily deserves any.) I don't really see us getting more than about an 8 or 9 seed.

Yes, but Cal, on the other hand, doesn't suck.  Both Cal and UW have a lot of talent and could easily take down a 1 seed.  I think there are 5 former top 30 recruits on UW's team.  Nobody wants to draw them in the second round. 

You don't get any TV time to speak of. It also doesn't help that Cal, the team with the most wins, got smoked by Missouri by almost 40.

Or that the conference is 0-12 against the top 25.  :oh_i_see:

I didn't even realize that until I looked it up. Good lord. No wonder I never see them on the weeknights.

Well, Kentucky and Syracuse have #1 seeds wrapped up.  I believe that Kansas will have the Midwest seed when all is said and done, which leaves the West for one of the following:  Duke, UNC, Missouri, or Michigan State. 

Out of those four I believe that Michigan State has the best resume, but in reality the final #1 will probably go to whoever wins the Duke/UNC game.  I suppose that Kansas could lose a game and leave Michigan State with the final #1 seed, but I doubt that will happen.  Plus having Thomas Robinson on the team helps with image in a lot of ways and the Big 12 is the better conference this year. 

Another "laid egg" alert tonight by Notre Dame. I've never seen a top 25 team only put up 18 points in a first half this season.

That's because Notre Dame is awful.  They are highly overrated.

Kentucky just destroyed your Bulldogs, Paelos.  They're scary good.

To be fair, my Dawgs are ridiculously bad.

But yes, Kentucky is also stupidly talented. It's absurd. They honestly have no excuse for why they shouldn't win the title other than not having a bench.

Yeah, foul trouble is pretty much the only thing that can slow them down.  When Wiltjer, Miller and Lamb are hitting threes they are pretty much unstoppable.  I have a feeling they would destroy Syracuse's Zone.


Edited to add-  Remember also, Paelos, that this shitty UGa team just beat a very good Florida team by 14 the other day.  So they're not that bad. 

Florida isn't that good either. They don't have the consistency needed to do well in a tournament. They lost twice to very average Tennessee team. Their signature win is against Mississippi State. Kentucky destroyed them by 20, and we'll get to see the rematch this weekend. They score a lot of points, so I think people give them a lot of credit, but they don't rebound well and they don't play any form of solid defense. They would get owned by a Big 10 team who wanted to lock them down and slow down the game. I mean they let UGA score 76 points, who is 304th in the nation in scoring and averages 61 a game.

Kentucky is really really good, but you can find more reasons than the UGA and Florida wins. Kentucky has also taken care of UNC, Louisville, and Kansas. They shoot 49% from the field. They block more shots than anybody in the nation and it's just ONE GUY! Lamb shoots 48% from 3 point land. They are redonkulous.

Kentucky looked like a monster, yet again, at Florida on Sunday.

UNC finally played like they should and bitchslapped Duke.  A team with a decent defense is going to beat Duke 7 times out of 10.  I don't see them making it to the final four this year.

And Florida State still remains as the one team nobody wants in their bracket. They could very easily manage a final four run. 

Kentucky and UNC are the outright favorites right now. No real flaws to speak of. Just situational stuff.

Then you have Michigan State and Syracuse. Probably one flaw each. Michigan State is vulnerable without Green as proven by Ohio State. Syracuse doesn't bother playing hard on the glass.

After that you start getting into teams with more than just one flaw. Kansas, Mizzou, Ohio State and Duke. Kansas turns the ball over too much and plays inconsistent defense. Mizzou is completely schizoid and can go to pieces if you muscle up on them. Duke lives and dies by the 3 ball, and I don't like the Plumlees. Ohio State, I just don't trust them. They are a boring offense who can get too easily dragged into a slugfest that they will lose.

I would love to see a UK/UNC rematch.  Except for the fact that UNC would probably win.   :oh_i_see:

The Kentucky-Florida game is pretty fucking epic.  Tune in if you want to see some good basketball.

Just watched the last 8 minutes or so of UNC v. NCST - some of the worst officiating I've ever seen in a basketball game.  First they were calling every little ticky tacky bit of contact.  Ok fine, as long as you're consistent I can deal with it, but a bunch of quick whistles had high profile players from both teams fouling out pretty early on.  Then, at the very end of the game in the biggest moment they just put the whistle away on what looked like an obvious charge which sent the defender flying backwards.  Hell, even if it was a blocking foul and not a charge you've got to make the call if you've established that contact much less than that was going to be called.  Anyway, just terrible.  Hate to see games decided by the refs.

Luckily NCState is probably in the tournament by now.

$#@%&*#$&!

I thought Florida was going to pull that one off.  Ah well, they at least gave me hope that they won't flame out in the first two rounds of the big tourney.

Don't assume that how Florida plays Kentucky is how they will play in the tourney.  They're notorious for giving UK a hard game and then folding like a house of cards the next game.  If they play like they did today, however, they could be a final 8 or final 4 team. 

It will be interesting to see what seed Florida State gets if they take down both Duke and UNC to win the ACC title.   :awesome_for_real:

I really think one of the Big Ten schools needs to be a one seed.  Ohio State is looking very good, and MSU has had a great season.  It's the toughest conference this year.  Right now I would pick the following:

1.  Kentucky
2.  Syracuse
3.  Winner of MSU/OSU
4.  UNC if they win, if they don't win Kansas

A couple of quick thoughts about the field so far:

1.  UConn is a team that could very likely beat Kentucky.  That's a tough matchup for them, if UConn can beat Iowa State.  Other than that, Duke sucks and the bracket looks pretty weak. 
2.  Michigan State's bracket is fucking ridiculous.  Memphis is the toughest 8 seed, Louisville is playing spectacularly right now, and Missouri is a very, very good team. 
3.  Syracuse's bracket isn't too bad, but Vandy is a team that could give them fits.  They shoot lights out and against a zone........Ohio State is another very good team, and I think they're the best team in that bracket.  I look for them to beat Vandy in the elite 8.
4.  UNC's bracket looks pretty weak too.  Kansas, IMO, is the better team, but I expect both of those teams to duke it out  :why_so_serious: for the final eight.

Easiest bracket - UNC's by far. There isn't a single team in that bunch that doesn't have a gigantic set of flaws.
Toughest bracket - Syracuse's bracket has Vandy, Wiscy, FSU, Cincy, and Ohio State. Any of those 6 could win it.

Biggest jokes - Notre Dame as a 7, Texas in the tournament at all, Iowa State as an 8, I'll also toss in the fact that Bama made it (they suck).

Likely winners - Kentucky might have it rough if they fact Indiana, but otherwise, they should make it to the four. UNC could take a half off and still beat most of the teams in their bracket. The other two brackets are wide open.

Yeah, Wichita State is also very, very good. 

I still think the toughest bracket is Michigan State.  Louisville is the best 4 seed.  They won the Big East tournament and have been playing some of the best defense in the field.  Memphis has a ton of talent and is the toughest 8/9 seed.  Florida is playing elite 8 kind of basketball and Missouri is unbelievable when shooting well.  Ohio State is only better than Duke as far as 2 seeds go. 

I don't believe in Florida, Ohio State, or Mizzou. They all have potential to go extremely cold and get buried by teams that play actual D. I used to believe in Duke, but I've revised that position given that they lack the killer instinct I want in a winner.

Let's face it, this is UNC's and Kentucky's to lose.

First tier-  UK, UNC
Second tier-  KU, Syracuse, MSU
Third tier-  Ohio State, Missouri

Dark horses-  Louisville, Vanderbilt, Wichita State, Florida State

Play-in game. :vaguely pleased:

Yeah, doesn't feel the same, does it? 

I have a suspicion you guys will steam roll South Florida. 

We doing a bracket this year?

We certainly should.  :grin:

If you were in the CBS brackets last year, you should have gotten an invite already. I don't know who set up the pool last year but the brackets can certainly be filled out.

Got it.  You guys ready to get your ass whipped again?

Here's Jay Bilas with about the lamest bracket prediction ever:  Lame (http://insider.espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/tournament/2012/story/_/id/7676961/2012-ncaa-tournament-jay-bilas-pick-pick-bracket-analysis).

Seriously, that is awful. His sweet sixteen has no seed higher than five, his elite eight has nothing but one and two seeds, and his final four is all one seeds. If that was the bracket of someone who doesn't know much about college basketball and is just playing it safe that's fine, but if you make a living being supposedly knowledgeable you don't take chalk the entire way through and say 'well, it has very good odds of being mostly right.'

Here's a pretty interesting statistical look (http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2012/03/12/sports/ncaabasketball/201203-nate-silver-march-madness.html) at who has a shot at winning.  UK comes in at 26%. 

Other notables
Kansas-  9%
UNC-  10%
Ohio State-  14%
Syracuse-  7%
Missouri-  5.2%

Fab Melo out for the NCAAs (http://www.suathletics.com/news/2012/3/13/MBB_0313122020.aspx).  Syracuse's shot just went way downhill. 

Still a bunch of folks with unfilled out brackets.  Chop chop people!

Good luck in the game tonight, Ingmar.

And good luck to my Bulls, too!   :grin:

First tourney invite in 20 years.  I'm not a basketball fan but had to throw them some support.  I read South Florida this year set a new Big East record for fewest points allowed at 56.9 per game.  If only they had an offense to go with that...

I take it back, Ingmar.  That may be the worst half of basketball ever played.   :ye_gods:

That's South Florida baskeball.  Louisville coach Rick Pitino says facing the Bulls is like getting a root canal.  :grin:

Hmm, 13 points in a half. They could set a tournament record.

Cal probably feels more like they're getting a colonoscopy right now.

wtb NIT invite

I have a feeling Murray State is going to be the first highly seeded upset.  Wichita State deserved a #3 seed way before these jokers got one.

Addendum-  Murray will go down quick.  Louisville is quite underwhelming right now.  K-State versus Southern Miss is a good game, but who fucking cares, right?  And Wisconsin with an 8 point lead, which is like a 50 point lead for anyone else. 

Man, Refs once again deciding a game.  Oh well - syracuse goes on.

Kentucky laid the smackdown on WKU there at the end of the half with a 11-1 run.  Very nice.   :grin:

And yet, WKU still covered the +26.5  :awesome_for_real:

Never doubt the SHAKA!

I wonder if he's going to get hired away to a bigger school someday. It took a little bit for the first upset of the day, this has been a rather boring round of 64 so far. I've got my eye on the Baylor game in progress.

Yeah, Kentucky looked pretty fucking weak at the end of the game.  I think their defense is entirely overrated, particularly Anthony Davis.  When they play hard, they can beat anyone, but their heads aren't often in the game.

Addendum-  I'm glad we won't have to hear any more about how Wichita State was under seeded. 

If you guys aren't watching the Iowa State-UConn game you really should.  Royce White is amazing.  He's like Magic fucking Johnson out there and probably would be the best player in the country if he didn't have the anxiety issues with flying.

Dude's out of his mind out there. Vern is having a field day announcing the game.

Royce was very, very close to attending Kentucky this year.  Can you imagine him on that team?

No. Calipari would get indicted by Congress.  :awesome_for_real:

Nah.  He's slicker than that.  Kentucky might get seven or eight seasons vacated though.  Cal would never get in trouble.

Hahahahahahahahahah fuck you Lamb for stealing that at the end. That's what you get.

What did he steal?

They tried to take the ball as the last seconds were ticking off. So Lamb stole it from the guy who was holding it to run out the clock, went down the court, and tried to dunk it as the horn sounded.

Except it embarrassingly went off the back rim, and he missed the wide open dunk like a tool.  :grin:

Wow.  Texas is fucking awful.  They shouldn't be in the field.   :ye_gods:

Addendum-  same for Virginia.  They're getting absolutely clobbered by Florida.

ACC outside of UNC is pretty much a diaster.

And yes, that does include FSU and Duke.

Cya Mizzou! Here's your T-shirt and a reminder that Defense wins championships.  :drill:

Okay, so who else had Norfolk State?   :grin:

Wow.

Florida will destroy that team.

FLor

Bye Bye Duke! Good to know you're going to set NCAA history along with Mizzou for being the biggest suckers in tournament history!

AHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAH  :why_so_serious:

I told you they sucked.   :oh_i_see:

It always makes me happy to see Duke lose. 

Haha!  Suck it Duke you wankers!

As for the other big upset, it was really great to see the Norfolk State players and their families.  Talk about a happy bunch of folks.  It was very heartwarming.

So I was wrong about Duke. However, even in February I knew that Mizzou was awful. I still stand behind my picks of UNC, Michigan State, FSU, and Louisville. Those are all solid programs.

Yeah, those are pretty reasonable picks.  FSU is a real headscratcher of a team sometimes though.  They can beat UNC one day and then barely beat Saint Bonaventure the next.  Louisville's defense has been killer. 

I think OSU doesn't get the props that is should.  That will be a tough game for UNC, should it happen. 

Just in case anyone was curious about whether Duke won tonight (http://www.diddukewin.com/).....   :awesome_for_real:

Go Bulls!  ;D

I like that Lehigh has shit-brown for their color scheme and some, shall we say, zaftig cheerleaders.  It's just all so "wrong" that it makes it right.

I love Vitale trying to say that Duke overachieved this year (http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=7700363), with the national high school basketball player of the year in Rivers, Seth Curry, Ryan Kelley and the Plumlee brothers.  It's not like these guys weren't well regarded coming out of high school. 

Vitale needs to retire. Better yet, maybe he'll just get non-lethal throat cancer so he will finally STFU, BABY!

Ohio State just got everything they wanted from Gonzaga.  Ohio State doesn't seem to play like a contender, to me.  Syracuse looked very good today though.  They may be able to make a nice run to the final four even without Melo.

Well this is an awkward interview with Dickie V (http://www.lostlettermen.com/dick-vitale-tv-interview-goes-haywire/).  It's worth watching. 

HEEEEEEY DICKEEEE VEEEEE, I LOVE HOOOOOOOOTAAAAAHS!

Apparently picking Louisville and Ohio State to go to the final 4 puts you in the 92nd percentile for brackets.  I'm looking forward to the finale. 

Well that's who I picked. My 4 is Lousiville, OSU, UK and UNC, with UK and UNC at the finals.

Exactly my picks.  I picked UNC to win it all (due to fan loyalty), but think that Kentucky may have been the better choice. 

I also picked UNC to win. That was before the point guard oopsies.

I think anybody who watched Louisville late in the year shouldn't be shocked by their performance at all. The sports culture today is so obsessed with offense, but that's not what helps you win in single-game playoffs when you have the best defenses in the league.

Kentucky versus Louisville should be a defensive showdown.  Both teams play excellent defense.  It will probably come down to talent in the end, and Kentucky is much, much more talented at every position. 

I do agree... but heart can overcome talent.  I'd love to see Louisville upset Kentucky. 

It can, certainly.  And this is a rivalry game.  But UK is an 8-10 point favorite, which puts their chance of winning at about 75-80%, I imagine.  I personally hope they pound the shit out of Louisville.  Kentucky versus KU or OSU would be a much more interesting finals game.

I hate Kansas. As long as they lose to OSU, I'm fine.

Kentucky versus Ohio State or a healthy UNC is what this season has been about all year.  That is going to be your best finals game.  Kansas versus Kentucky will be much more entertaining than watching Louisville slog it out to 50 points.  U of L has to be the shittiest team I've watched all year when it comes to entertainment value.

Wow, I disagree completely. Did you watch that Florida game? Tell me that wasn't the best game of the day with a straight face.

I don't like Louisville's style.  The reason it was interesting was because Florida was hitting 80% of their three pointers in the first half.  After that it became a slogfest.  That Kansas/UNC game on Sunday was one of the better ones so far, IMO.

Again, disagree. The first half was fine, then UNC absolutely faded. No, check that, they DISAPPEARED in the second half. For starters, UNC didn't make a single point for 3 minutes in the second half. Then from 12 minutes left, they made 2 FGs. TWO FUCKING FIELD GOALS. I mean, how are we even comparing these two games? You wanna talk slog? UNC couldn't throw it in the ocean.

Florida did the same thing, except they were ahead. For the last 8 minutes, Louisville shut them down. It wasn't just that they were missing, they were turning it over. Louisville was suffocating them. It's the very definition of tension. One team trying to hold on, another team charging hard. It was a magnificent finish that went down to the very last shot.

I just found it to be much less compelling of a game.  Actually, I felt like it was the shittiest of all of them.  Only UK's shitty second half was close. 

You are wrong and your opinion is bad!  :why_so_serious:

(http://dl.dropbox.com/u/82533/slapfight.gif)

 :awesome_for_real:

Now don't be bitter just because your team blew this year, Raxix.   :grin:

Here (http://www.wkyt.com/wymt/home/headlines/Fist_fight_between_UK_and_U_of_L_starts_during_dialysis_treatment_144445985.html)'s a funny and completely predictable story about a couple of 80 year old rednecks from Kentucky fighting about the game at a dialysis center. 

Austin Rivers is funny (http://espn.go.com/boston/nba/story/_/id/7754950/2012-nba-draft-austin-rivers-says-love-play-doc-rivers-boston-celtics).


 :rofl:

I'm sure his life has been a veritable impoverished hell. 

Winter Park in Orange County Florida is hardly the ghetto. It's an 86% white town home to Oral Hershiser, Matt Kuchar, Nick Faldo, Doc Rivers, Daniel Webster, Davey Johnson, and Rashard Lewis.

Note that his dad is that Doc Rivers.

I'm confused. I read that as 'my whole life ... I have never wanted anything handed to me' but that doesn't mean he's saying he's never been handed anything, just that he wants to work hard. Or am I wrong?

Rivers is a rich, spoiled punk. 

Final Four predictions for Saturday:

1.  UK by 12
2.  OSU by 3

(http://ksr.wpengine.netdna-cdn.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/champs-streamers1.jpg)

 :awesome_for_real:

My office is awash in a sea of blue.

I saw a couple of tent stores going up at 6:30 this morning awash in UK Champion shirts.

It was bad enough around here when 5 regional teams were in.  I'm going to avoid the Mall area (Where the UK store is.  No, really, a whole store that only sells UK items.) this week.

It was the Kentucky invitational all year long. The fact they won it shocks nobody, and won me $50  :drill:

This team was really spectacular.  To get a group of guys that talented to win with defense is a hell of a coaching job.

Next year's top 5 looks like U of L, IU, OSU, Kentucky, Kansas.   You're going to continue to see this next year, Merusk.

Kentucky expects to lose 6 players (min.) to the NBA.  So at least it won't be that godawful Best Buy shade of blue.

Don't be surprised to see them get a very similar recruiting class next year once all these guys get drafted in the lottery.