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Author Topic: Stocks, bonds and investing  (Read 43400 times)
Paelos
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Reply #315 on: February 08, 2016, 11:59:33 AM

The downturn is starting to get ugly. It's not often I see 4 figure swings in portfolio in a matter of a day.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/resist-the-urge-to-buy-this-stock-market-pullback-says-jp-morgan-2016-02-08

JP Morgan guys are laying the groundwork. I think we're about to see a big shift down if this continues.

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HaemishM
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Reply #316 on: February 08, 2016, 12:01:23 PM

Perhaps the bottom we should have seen in 2008 is finally upon us?

Paelos
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Reply #317 on: February 08, 2016, 12:06:50 PM

Perhaps the bottom we should have seen in 2008 is finally upon us?

The reality is that this is oil-driven right now, but the China stuff we've all know is crap is going to accelerate the process. I was hoping it would hold off until 2017, but I'm now thinking it won't. Which means I'm going to start hording more cash instead of putting it into funds until the other shoe drops. Then I'll start buying in bulk.

In the meantime, everyone's portfolio has given back the gains, and now you're looking at a DOW drop of 11% in 3 months.

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shiznitz
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Reply #318 on: February 08, 2016, 01:36:33 PM

Oil was the catalyst that reinvigorated skepticism. Investors were so complacent. Then we had a couple earnings misses in internet and software darlings and we are finally getting close to a bounce. On Friday, one $2 billion hedge fund had two top 4 holdings down over 40%.

Pull up the charts of WDAY and DATA. These stocks were loved and owned by many "smart" investors. Their cracking is a sign that things will calm down soon. At least I hope so.

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Paelos
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Reply #319 on: February 08, 2016, 01:52:46 PM

I would hope so but I've been wrong before when these slides start.

The issue for me right now is that I still think the overall American economy is fine, but it's getting overbuilt in the real estate sector at a rapid rate over the next 2 years. If the oil stuff continues, and the housing market finally realizes they can't sell the crap they have projected to his in early 2017, we're in for a world of hurt.

The China economy is far from fine, and we all understand that. But the big boys are also playing the game of WHEN it burns, not IF. That's a dangerous play that only fucks the smaller investors for the most part. The European economy is taking a hit over all kinds of political crap, so I don't like what's going on there either.

Either way I'm more concerned now about the fallout than I was 12 months ago for sure.

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Viin
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Reply #320 on: February 08, 2016, 03:27:39 PM

The issue for me right now is that I still think the overall American economy is fine, but it's getting overbuilt in the real estate sector at a rapid rate over the next 2 years. If the oil stuff continues, and the housing market finally realizes they can't sell the crap they have projected to his in early 2017, we're in for a world of hurt.

Not sure I agree with this. At least from where I sit, there is a huge shortage of housing. (Thus the sky rocketing increase in rental and home prices the last two years). If anything we need more lower-end homes to be built. Sure, eventually it will be overbuilt, but such is the supply/demand cycle.

http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2015/09/a-bleak-future-for-renters/406453/
http://www.citylab.com/housing/2015/06/every-single-county-in-america-is-facing-an-affordable-housing-crisis/396284/

- Viin
Merusk
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Reply #321 on: February 08, 2016, 03:56:49 PM

Lower end homes are absolutely what we need. That and multi-family density housing.

None of the build projects are slated for that market. The underlying economics and the cities themselves don't support it. You make far more profit selling 4 $350k homes than you do 10 $90-$125k apartments/ condos/ homes. Tax incomes for cities on the properties and homeowner incomes are also higher on those 4 households. (Numbers fudged, I don't recall the break-down the Regional president cited but it was around there.)

The material and labor costs for the higher density are greater and the profit margin is much smaller, so it's pointless to pursue without incentives. So we will continue to have a housing crunch as builders will pursue the smaller-but-more-profitable upper-income level for homes.

A breakthrough in factory-to-site housing or even panelized homes would make huge strides to fix this. However Americans are stupid and prefer homes that are stick-built on-site to panelized or factory-supplied housing parts. That's despite the inferior construction and engineering of such a home.

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Reply #322 on: February 08, 2016, 04:13:26 PM

The financing structures aren't friendly to the low end, either, as the paperwork and various bits of due diligence overhead (inspections, permitting, title, credit checking) are the same but the potential income is smaller. What does exist is totally focused on mobile homes and doesn't want to evolve to pre-fabs that aren't hauled on wheels to the site.

--Dave

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HaemishM
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Reply #323 on: February 08, 2016, 05:14:54 PM

I see the same shit in commercial building as well. Strip malls that were built to be the swanky places to shop in the suburbs at the turn of the century are fucking ghost towns now because some asshole developer built a swankier spot closer to the pricier suburbs and farther away from the city. I mean, we're talking about places that were in their lease a decade or less before moving to another more ritzy strip mall. For a little while, we had 3 Best Buys within a 20-mile radius and now the one in the city has closed while the 2 in the burbs are still going. Meanwhile there's a shitton of decent retail space in the city just collecting dust.

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Reply #324 on: February 08, 2016, 06:09:07 PM

No one wants to do in-fill development without all kinds of ridiculous tax-incentives like the horrible (for the commnity) TIF districts.

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Reply #325 on: February 08, 2016, 10:01:03 PM

I was reading that liar loans might be making a comeback. But of course, you know, they've learned their lesson! Won't go wrong again.

As for the market -- timing it is a fool's game. I've got 20+ years to retirement, so I'll just keep plugging into my 401k and my normal purchases. I'm not in anything that's going to go out in a recession (well, if it DOES my 401k won't matter) so it's mostly just...not locking in my losses by selling.

I've got a lot of time for it to recover.

Oh well, even as the market craters, unemployment is dropping so I suspect this will be more 'contained' to the financial side. Betcha it's a bunch of over-leveraged crap at the bottom, getting shafted by dropping oil prices.
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Reply #326 on: February 09, 2016, 07:13:03 AM

The fact that Quicken Loans has come up with a new "everyone deserves to own a home, use our new Rocket Loans website to shop for mortgages" and bought SuperBowl commercials reminds me of 2007-2008 all over again. LET'S GIVE A LOAN TO EVERYONE!

'Reality' is the only word in the language that should always be used in quotes.
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Reply #327 on: February 09, 2016, 07:37:33 AM

So long as flipping loans brings-in more money than real investments there will be a market for terrible loans. Selling them off makes them someone else's problem.

Want to stop this bullshit, make banks hold on to loans they make for a minimum term greater than a quarter. My first home loan was sold before I even had the ink on the paper.

The Big Short points out at the end of the movie that the terrible financial instruments of 2008 were being sold again under a new name as of 2013/4. I wish I could remember what they're called now.

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Ironwood
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Reply #328 on: February 09, 2016, 08:14:15 AM

Bespoke CDO or Single Tranche CDO.

Watched that film yesterday.  Wow.
« Last Edit: February 09, 2016, 08:21:56 AM by Ironwood »

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Merusk
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Reply #329 on: February 09, 2016, 08:27:38 AM

Thanks!

It was good watching it and recalling everything from the meltdown thread. Very little of it was new to me except Carrel's group and it laid everything out just perfectly. Pity like most smart films people won't watch it.

The past cannot be changed. The future is yet within your power.
Ironwood
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Reply #330 on: February 09, 2016, 08:43:53 AM

I fucking loved it from start to finish.  However, I was extremely clued up on all of the ins and outs, but didn't know about these specific chaps.  Which just made it all the more of a horror story.

Really, really put paid to 'no-one could have predicted this' when everyone was predicting it (which I knew) and people were actively betting on it (which was news to me).

"Mr Soft Owl has Seen Some Shit." - Sun Tzu
HaemishM
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Reply #331 on: February 09, 2016, 10:05:12 AM

The fact that Quicken Loans has come up with a new "everyone deserves to own a home, use our new Rocket Loans website to shop for mortgages" and bought SuperBowl commercials reminds me of 2007-2008 all over again. LET'S GIVE A LOAN TO EVERYONE!

I had the exact same reaction to those commercials. I was all like "Wait, wasn't that the fucking mentality that caused us to bubble the ever-living fuck out of the real estate market in 2007?" and it was a literal slideshow presentation about the Bush-era's "everyone needs to own a home!" philosophy. And I'm like "didn't we learn that not everyone CAN buy a home and isn't there a shitton of people who can't buy a home now because their credit rating got shitcanned by the last real estate bubble meltdown?"

Fuckers learned their lesson well. Get the easy money up front then sell the loan and fuck off before the whole thing falls to shit.

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Reply #332 on: February 09, 2016, 10:23:33 AM

"didn't we learn that not everyone CAN buy a home and isn't there a shitton of people who can't buy a home now because their credit rating got shitcanned by the last real estate bubble meltdown?"
It's been 6-7 years since those people lost their homes, the foreclosures and terrible ratings are just now starting to drop off and make them available to the predators again (like my ex wife).
Ironwood
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Reply #333 on: February 09, 2016, 11:02:30 AM

Your Ex-Wife is a Predator ?  Does she have that cool luminous blood ?

"Mr Soft Owl has Seen Some Shit." - Sun Tzu
shiznitz
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Reply #334 on: February 12, 2016, 03:43:52 PM

The average mortgage FICO score last year was still over 750. Bad credits still have a hard time getting financing. The banks are safe for a few more years yet.

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Reply #335 on: February 14, 2016, 10:47:10 AM

The average mortgage FICO score last year was still over 750. Bad credits still have a hard time getting financing. The banks are safe for a few more years yet.
You can get a FHA loan through Fannie Mae with 3.5% down and a 580 FICO.

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Paelos
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Reply #336 on: March 04, 2016, 01:05:41 PM

DOW's over 17000 for the first time since the beginning of the year. So there's that.

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Reply #337 on: March 04, 2016, 02:30:08 PM

Yeah, I'm still thinking about how to invest in mini-storage before the next housing massacre.  So whatever.

Why am I homeless?  Why do all you motherfuckers need homes is the real question.
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Paelos
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Reply #338 on: March 04, 2016, 02:36:53 PM

You could invest in PSA - Public Storage. They have a decent dividend, the revenue has been increasing over the last 4 years, and they have next to no debt for all their assets.

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Merusk
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Reply #339 on: March 04, 2016, 03:04:52 PM

Just build one. Find an acre of land in an area near a bunch of expensive homes and build a small self-storage facility.

A quick layout I just did based on the privately-owned one I was using two years ago yielded approximately 16,000 sq. ft. of exterior, unconditioned units. (Bonus because very low overhead and less construction/ architect fees) with a small 4,300 sq. ft. conditioned area for another 2k sq. ft of storage 10x10 and smaller units and an office. All on a single acre of land.

The self-storage place I was using is run by some kid in his 20s. His grandfather started the place in the early 70's by the looks of the leasable buildings also on the property and now kid works 5 hours a week doing billing and collections. 90% of the office-hours listed he's never in the office and you have to call his mobile to set-up an appointment.

Now I want to do the math..

Conditioned Spaces:
5x5 units - 8 @ $52 = $416
5x10 units - 8@ $74 = $592
5x15 units - 8@ $105 = $840
10X10 units - 8 @ $109 = $872

Unconditioned Spaces:
10 x 10 units - 48 @ $81 = $3,888
10 x 20 units - 20 @ $149 = $2,980
10 x 30 units - 24  @ $199 = $4,776

Total Income = $14,364 per month if full. The places around me are always at ~80% or better. The only reason people aren't building more is the market is saturated and the only land is in the shitty rural area we high-income folks won't drive to.  why so serious?

« Last Edit: March 04, 2016, 03:07:13 PM by Merusk »

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shiznitz
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Reply #340 on: March 18, 2016, 03:05:02 PM

Get ready for a rollover. Volatility measures are breaking to 4 year lows. Dow won't likely hit 18,000 this month or next but I don't expect the 15,660 low to be tested either.

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Paelos
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Reply #341 on: March 18, 2016, 04:16:09 PM

I bought Public Storage when we discussed it and it's already up over 5%

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Tale
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Reply #342 on: September 15, 2016, 06:58:43 PM

What's really happening when stockbrokers issue an upgrade/downgrade and a price target...

Surlyboi
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Reply #343 on: September 15, 2016, 07:18:25 PM

I wish it was that scientific.

Tuned in, immediately get to watch cringey Ubisoft talking head offering her deepest sympathies to the families impacted by the Orlando shooting while flanked by a man in a giraffe suit and some sort of "horrifically garish neon costumes through the ages" exhibit or something.  We need to stop this fucking planet right now and sort some shit out. -Kail
Paelos
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Reply #344 on: September 15, 2016, 07:53:45 PM

The market is basically playing with itself right now waiting for the election, or a possible China collapse.

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Reply #345 on: September 15, 2016, 09:54:54 PM

Don't forget the Fed.

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HaemishM
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Reply #346 on: September 15, 2016, 10:09:01 PM

Otherwise known as the Jizz Moppers for said masturbating brokers.

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Reply #347 on: September 16, 2016, 01:02:18 AM

Psychics don't sound too bad considering A fresh blow for stockpickers as semi-annual survey finds 90% fall short of benchmarkwhy so serious?
(quotation in spoiler since FT link):
Paelos
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Reply #348 on: September 16, 2016, 08:25:36 AM

There's a reason why most brokers are terrible. They've been taught to look at the movements rather than the underlying day to day operations of the stock. They are about tips and metrics and blah blah blah.

But eventually stocks are valued based on companies ability to produce income. Nothing more than that. Anything else is just fancy ass posturing. And eventually even companies that have supressed values like ATVI 4 years ago see a resurgence when the market finally catches up.

It's why I prefer dividend producing stocks only. Show me you can make money and send that money to your shareholders in some form.

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Reply #349 on: September 16, 2016, 09:04:18 AM

Man, I don't want to manage my own money but looks like I need to make a phone call.

Why am I homeless?  Why do all you motherfuckers need homes is the real question.
They called it The Prayer, its answer was law
Mommy come back 'cause the water's all gone
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