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Author Topic: Stocks, bonds and investing  (Read 60164 times)
Paelos
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Reply #245 on: August 24, 2015, 08:23:55 AM

Buckle up. This week is about to get seriously weird.

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Shannow
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Reply #246 on: August 24, 2015, 08:35:33 AM

Watching the talking heads on CNBC moan like this is the end of the world is HILARIOUS.

Someone liked something? Who the fuzzy fuck was this heretic? You don't come to this website and enjoy something. Fuck that. ~ The Walrus
Paelos
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Reply #247 on: August 24, 2015, 08:42:20 AM

Just as a side note, when people panic, my strategy is to double down. I hold onto reserves for this scenario. It's why you can make serious money when things crash if you'd dollar-cost-averaging on the way down.

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Reply #248 on: August 24, 2015, 09:08:01 AM

Wish I had your foresight. I blew my cash reserves on a few additional stocks and now can't snag bargains. On top of the net loss of 3% of my dividend portfolio. Boo.

The past cannot be changed. The future is yet within your power.
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Reply #249 on: August 24, 2015, 09:10:39 AM

Dow Jones dropped more than 1,000pts this morning.  Thanks Obama!

Glad I moved my 401k to a stable account last week.  I do wish I knew how to go in on all of this.
Paelos
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Reply #250 on: August 24, 2015, 09:23:08 AM

I just dumped some money into TGH, which I had noted earlier as a high div yield stock with a low PE. I was waiting for it to go under 16 and it did.

EDIT: And it's now up to 16.45 heh.

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Reply #251 on: August 24, 2015, 10:05:22 AM

My money is all tied up right now so I'm just going to


Maybe later I'll

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Reply #252 on: August 24, 2015, 10:32:06 AM

It seems hard to make any sort of mid to long term market predictions period, but in particular, with China. Their economy is so monumentally different than western economies, their 'rules' seem so patchwork and arbitrary that it seems impossible that the whole thing won't blow up in their faces. On the other hand, they make everything, so that argues that there's some basic built-in market security right there. NO idea what to make of the current situation.

I should get back to nature, too.  You know, like going to a shop for groceries instead of the computer.  Maybe a condo in the woods that doesn't even have a health club or restaurant attached.  Buy a car with only two cup holders or something. -Signe

I LIKE being bounced around by Tonkors. - Lantyssa

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Reply #253 on: August 24, 2015, 10:44:14 AM

My investments are tied up in Beanie Babies and Pet Rocks, which will pay off any day now.
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Reply #254 on: August 24, 2015, 11:05:32 AM

I know fuckall about the stock markets and individual stocks, but just having seen that the Dow shit itself last Friday, and yet still was OVER 16000!!!! (when I remember there being news about 14k being a previous record high) tells me there's a shitton of overvalued stocks out there that are in fact, utter utter shit. China's economy is literally built on the cotton candy foundations of never-ending yet somehow unused construction and foreign money from outsourced manufacturing. China is heading for a complete catastraphuck meltdown.

Paelos
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Reply #255 on: August 24, 2015, 12:09:20 PM

I know fuckall about the stock markets and individual stocks, but just having seen that the Dow shit itself last Friday, and yet still was OVER 16000!!!! (when I remember there being news about 14k being a previous record high) tells me there's a shitton of overvalued stocks out there that are in fact, utter utter shit. China's economy is literally built on the cotton candy foundations of never-ending yet somehow unused construction and foreign money from outsourced manufacturing. China is heading for a complete catastraphuck meltdown.

Everything is overvalued right now if you asked me. But that's why I tend towards stocks that pay out dividends as opposed to relying entirely on their value at any given point in time. If I know I'm getting a 5-7% return on combined dividends in addition to the value change? I can play long-term and hold games while buying in during downswings.

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Reply #256 on: August 24, 2015, 01:28:50 PM

The market has been grossly overvalued for a while now. We got a few good bubbles going on right now and the China one is looking to finally pop no matter how hard China fudges things to keep it going.

"The world is populated in the main by people who should not exist." - George Bernard Shaw
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Reply #257 on: August 24, 2015, 03:35:32 PM

The Dow added Apple at just the right time to cause maximum carnage.

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Paelos
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Reply #258 on: August 24, 2015, 04:06:12 PM

The Dow added Apple at just the right time to cause maximum carnage.

LOL so true.

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Khaldun
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Reply #259 on: August 24, 2015, 04:12:46 PM

Can I ask something with a certain amount of carefully cultivated naivete?

So, all the investment experts come on the radio today saying in the most avuncular and bemused way, "Oh, my, no, silly peoples, don't panic, just sit tight on your investments, don't worry, they'll make it all back, you're in for the long haul." Like they're talking indulgently to children who just asked whether Santa Claus is real.

But here's what never comes up on the "Oh, relax, you silly billies":

1. What if you have no long haul? I mean, shit, the people I know in their 70s or even 80s, since there IS no safe place to park money really, so they're all in TIAA-CREF or whatever still, telling them, "Oh, relax, it'll all come back in ten years or so, don't worry about the hit to your income if it shits the pooch for a year or two or five or ten"? I think those folks can't be faulted for thinking, "Um, wait a minute."

2. More importantly, there is something really uncomfortable about all these investment professionals hitting the airwaves and saying, "don't worry, just stick tight, that's what the professionals do" when rather obviously, some professionals DIDN'T. That's when I can't help but feel a bit of the old MMOG twinge--that sense that all the guys who are out abusing the dupe bug that the elite guild found last week are saying, "no, no, keep buying stuff on the Auction House, it's totally ok". I mean, what a coincidence that the calm, non-panicky professionals are the guys on the radio and TV and the panicky ones are on the trading floor...

3. None of the guys talking in the media ever seem--until the economic consequences are already screamingly obvious--to talk about the fact that we have a ton of civic institutions (who are major employers) who are part of the asset class now. I sure as shit see it in academia--every single institution with an endowment is drawing much of its operating budget from that, whether it has a big endowment or a small one. In 1929, it was not altogether that clear whether the stock market was just an exotic horse race for the swells, but now it's a horse race that much of the society is betting on. This seems like it's important.
Viin
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Reply #260 on: August 24, 2015, 04:16:45 PM

People smarter than me can respond, but:
a) if you are in retirement you shouldn't have most of your funds in the stock market. Bonds are still pretty safe, yeah?
b) the trading floor is meant to be volatile and respond to market forces every day, this is what gets us the nice trends over time vs flat lining for 3 months then crashing or going sky high
c) umm was there a c?

- Viin
Paelos
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Reply #261 on: August 24, 2015, 04:19:25 PM

1 - If you have no long haul you shouldn't be involved in equities that would be this volatile. You'd be in bonds, and blue chips. And right now neither of those are having issues in the interim because they produce income. Value is only if you're worried about liquidating today, and if you're positioned to have income producing holdings, you honestly don't care.

2 - Professionals don't sit tight, they buy. Then they buy again. Or they bail out completely and buy something else. They dollar cost average for bargains with the liquidity they have or create. Then they sell on the way back up.

3 - Almost every endowment is in low risk shit. They don't care about short term (see less than 3 years) market fluctuations as much as other institutions. They can afford to go long long long term because they have high-dollar holdings. And they don't worry about death.

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Reply #262 on: August 24, 2015, 05:05:01 PM

Number 3 is becoming less "low risk" simply because, as Khaldun mentioned, these academic institutions are pulling larger percentages of their operating budgets out of the endowments every year because the decrease in funding from other sources (state funding, decrease in federal grants, etc.). We are nowhere near the point that a precipitous market drop will erase the endowments, but I know for a fact that getting increasing rates of return and actively managing the investment portfolios is an increasing priority which makes short term market fluctuations more of a concern than they have been traditionally.

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Reply #263 on: August 24, 2015, 05:39:35 PM

From what I am hearing today, bonds are barely safer.

If professionals don't sit tight and buy, then who is selling. There is no way all the selling is just some middle-aged fuck with a $10,000 portfolio who is day trading his way into a panic froth.

Look into endowment investment some time. For a surprisingly large number of institutions, it's not low risk, long-term any more. Some of these fuckers, even w/2008 in their rear-view mirror, are in seriously risky positions of some kind, though they generally diversify in some way. They absolutely DO CARE about short term market fluctuations. That much is goddamn nonsense--their investment income is next year's operating budget. That's what having "asset classes" in this country means now--this is not rainy day money any more.
Paelos
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Reply #264 on: August 24, 2015, 05:51:59 PM

From what I am hearing today, bonds are barely safer.

If professionals don't sit tight and buy, then who is selling. There is no way all the selling is just some middle-aged fuck with a $10,000 portfolio who is day trading his way into a panic froth.

Look into endowment investment some time. For a surprisingly large number of institutions, it's not low risk, long-term any more. Some of these fuckers, even w/2008 in their rear-view mirror, are in seriously risky positions of some kind, though they generally diversify in some way. They absolutely DO CARE about short term market fluctuations. That much is goddamn nonsense--their investment income is next year's operating budget. That's what having "asset classes" in this country means now--this is not rainy day money any more.

Honestly, I haven't looked at endowment investment in years. So you're probably right. They probably got stupid and let a bunch of idiots take over the money with promises of big returns for shiny new things. If so, they got greedy and they better stop or they will get seriously poor seriously fast. Either way, I'm out of the audit industry now so AFAIK the good ones were still managing with diversity in the right places and not relying on their budgets coming from returns.

Many professionals sell. The good ones don't sell into a down market unless they see the position as untenable or the company as a going concern. Or they have clients who can't manage a certain time frame short fall. Many are simply running computers that do sales for them so they sell if markets move a certain percentage, which triggers other percentages, which starts a cascade. Then when the actual humans see what happened, they buy back in. That's why you usually see a rebound at some point late in the day when these fuckers wake up and realize their computers just sold off a ton of shit.

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Reply #265 on: August 24, 2015, 09:20:08 PM

People bet on China?  News at 11!

Buyers. Market.

No Nerf, but I put a link to this very thread and I said that you all can guarantee for my purity. I even mentioned your case, and see if they can take a look at your lawn from a Michigan perspective.
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Reply #266 on: August 24, 2015, 11:15:33 PM

From what I am hearing today, bonds are barely safer.

If professionals don't sit tight and buy, then who is selling. There is no way all the selling is just some middle-aged fuck with a $10,000 portfolio who is day trading his way into a panic froth.

Look into endowment investment some time. For a surprisingly large number of institutions, it's not low risk, long-term any more. Some of these fuckers, even w/2008 in their rear-view mirror, are in seriously risky positions of some kind, though they generally diversify in some way. They absolutely DO CARE about short term market fluctuations. That much is goddamn nonsense--their investment income is next year's operating budget. That's what having "asset classes" in this country means now--this is not rainy day money any more.

This. the needle doesn't move that much with just individual traders selling shit off. This was all the institutionals shitting themselves and running for cover or hedges shorting the shit out of everything in sight and collecting the profits. Further proof that financial types these days are either fucking morons, soulless assholes with an angle or both.

Tuned in, immediately get to watch cringey Ubisoft talking head offering her deepest sympathies to the families impacted by the Orlando shooting while flanked by a man in a giraffe suit and some sort of "horrifically garish neon costumes through the ages" exhibit or something.  We need to stop this fucking planet right now and sort some shit out. -Kail
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Reply #267 on: August 24, 2015, 11:29:04 PM

Bubbles are generally only recognized in hindsight, or when they're beyond obvious. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extraordinary_Popular_Delusions_and_the_Madness_of_Crowds is still a good read, and I think we should go back to making stock jobbers criminals.
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Reply #268 on: August 25, 2015, 11:29:14 AM

Just remember, those computer programs (or traders, if they do anything these days) can't sell unless someone is buying (ok ok another computer program). So for the market to crash means someone is buying the stock at those low prices, because they see them as being worth that much.  I think flash crashes are going to be the norm for awhile - but predicting them will just make your head hurt.

- Viin
Paelos
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Reply #269 on: August 25, 2015, 12:07:57 PM

Not shockingly the DOW has rallied up 300+ points. I wouldn't be shocked if it was back up over 17000 by the end of the month.

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Reply #270 on: August 25, 2015, 03:48:37 PM

Not shockingly the rally disappeared by the end of the day and it ended down another 200+.  Might want to wait a bit before you puff your prediction pipe.
Paelos
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Reply #271 on: August 25, 2015, 04:02:48 PM

Not shockingly the rally disappeared by the end of the day and it ended down another 200+.  Might want to wait a bit before you puff your prediction pipe.

It's still ridiculous. There's nothing wrong with the US Economy, which is what these companies are mostly trading on. Job markets are up, housing is up, oil is down. There's no conditions in place for a recession slide like 2008. There's this "fear" about China that no analyst can seem to actual quantify, in addition to the fact that China just cut rates.

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Reply #272 on: August 25, 2015, 04:09:02 PM

You are acting like the market is about real things and is based on real fundamentals. Maybe parts of it are, but another part of it is just a giant Ponzi scheme being farmed by a small elite group of investors using HFT, or boilerroom level scheming being used to puff up unicorns for investors looking to join the plutocracy.  Let a souffle expand too much in the oven and guess what happens: you find out it was a bunch of air that could have fed a large dinner party and now it's a bunch of burnt goop on the bottom of a pan.
Paelos
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Reply #273 on: August 25, 2015, 05:01:23 PM

Well that's fairly cynical. The majority of the market is based on expected value, and then trading on that underlying business practice of a company. The expected returns and expected growth create that value. If you're trading on other things, you're gambling.

If your expectations are wrong, that's fair. It happens. But for that to happen something usually triggers it to burst the bubble. In the case of China we've known there was a bubble for a long time. They've been building ghost cities for heaven's sake. You didn't even have to look hard.

My expectation of the market is that it was very overvalued and this may take it down to where it probably realistically settles. My personal expectation is that it wasn't overvalued by 20%. But even if the DOW goes to 10,000 over the next month as the scare gets worse, it doesn't change the underlying business of the stuff I'm invested in. They still will sell product here in the USA. They will still service loans from US Banks. They will still produce a dividend and income, and I will get a portion of that paid to me. It's why I never invest in value-only stocks.

It also means I can pounce on it because I have a job, I'm not out of work like in 2008, and I can take advantage of a downturn. That's where you make money.
« Last Edit: August 25, 2015, 05:02:56 PM by Paelos »

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Reply #274 on: August 25, 2015, 05:22:17 PM

Do please keep posting your progress.  It will be hilarious.

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Shannow
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Reply #275 on: August 25, 2015, 06:27:34 PM

Not shockingly the rally disappeared by the end of the day and it ended down another 200+.  Might want to wait a bit before you puff your prediction pipe.

It's still ridiculous. There's nothing wrong with the US Economy, which is what these companies are mostly trading on. Job markets are up, housing is up, oil is down. There's no conditions in place for a recession slide like 2008. There's this "fear" about China that no analyst can seem to actual quantify, in addition to the fact that China just cut rates.

While no one thinks that this is 2008 again you could point several problems with the U.S. economy: While unemployment is low the participation rate is at its worst in 40 years, wage grow has been non existent. A large part of the economic growth we've seen has been  in the U.S. energy industry, that depends on oil being over 60 dollars a barrel.

Most of us however shouldn't give a fuck. Ignore this shit unless you intend on retiring in the next 10 years.  Human brains are really really bad at dealing with losses in the market. (It's been theorized that it's the old caveman part of the brain that equates losses in the market with loss and danger (aka large animals with pointy teeth are trying to eat me! Run away!)). There's a reason that the average annual return over the last 20 years in the S&P 500 has been over 9 percent while the average investor has only done 2.4 percent annually.

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Reply #276 on: August 26, 2015, 11:27:14 AM


I should get back to nature, too.  You know, like going to a shop for groceries instead of the computer.  Maybe a condo in the woods that doesn't even have a health club or restaurant attached.  Buy a car with only two cup holders or something. -Signe

I LIKE being bounced around by Tonkors. - Lantyssa

Babies shooting themselves in the head is the state bird of West Virginia. - schild
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Reply #277 on: August 26, 2015, 12:48:01 PM

I do like to sell in these environments...and turn around and buy something else. Lock in the tax loss and reinvest in something at the new lower prices.

Have a loss in IBM? Sell it and buy Oracle.  Is your recent investment in Home Depot in the red? Sell it and buy Lowe's.  Keep the exposure for the long term but save yourself some taxes this year.

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Viin
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Reply #278 on: August 26, 2015, 02:01:40 PM

You must not be playing with 401k money like the rest of us hicks.
If I can get my damn bank account to link to my Vanguard account I'd actually buy some stocks for my girls in a non-retirement account.

- Viin
Viin
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Reply #279 on: August 26, 2015, 03:49:32 PM

Of course my buy order didn't go through until this afternoon. Of course.

Eat it, doubters:  
S&P 500 and Dow industrials post biggest percentage rises since 2011
Dow industrials close 619 points higher; Nasdaq gains nearly 200 points

Remember, you play this just like you play roulette. If it's hitting red, then bet black!

- Viin
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