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Author Topic: Stocks, bonds and investing  (Read 102270 times)
Paelos
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Reply #210 on: June 17, 2015, 01:06:28 PM

401 to 401 is easy like that and I've done the same a few times over the years when switching jobs if my balances were  a few times greater than my vested balances. 

However, he said IRA to 401.  I can totally believe that would be a byzantine process because you're putting taxed money into a pretax investment fund.  I didn't even know you could do that, I thought it'd have to remain in another IRA type of account.

Depends on if it's a deductible IRA.

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Yegolev
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Reply #211 on: June 17, 2015, 01:14:57 PM

That's what I was about to say, so if it's a taxable/nontaxable problem then GOOD LUCK SIR.

I had some taxed monies in a 401k along with the untaxed, and I took the taxed amount as a distribution while rolling the untaxed into a IRRA.  I had to write a letter to the IRS once it caught their attention, though.

Why am I homeless?  Why do all you motherfuckers need homes is the real question.
They called it The Prayer, its answer was law
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Reply #212 on: June 17, 2015, 02:30:33 PM

The IRA is pre-tax. I had a 401k that I rolled into the IRA when I quit working to take care of my kid for a few years. In theory is should just be a direct rollover, but for some reason they're making me work for my transfer.

I wouldn't even worry about the consolidation, but it's a small enough IRA that my yearly fees cut into the returns heavily. I'd rather it just sit in my 401k because no fees!

Invesco is being a supreme shitheel about the process.
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Reply #213 on: June 17, 2015, 03:04:18 PM

The IRA is pre-tax. I had a 401k that I rolled into the IRA when I quit working to take care of my kid for a few years. In theory is should just be a direct rollover, but for some reason they're making me work for my transfer.

I wouldn't even worry about the consolidation, but it's a small enough IRA that my yearly fees cut into the returns heavily. I'd rather it just sit in my 401k because no fees!

Invesco is being a supreme shitheel about the process.

It may be too late, but you could do a custodian-to-custodian transfer. They're usually pretty easy, as you typically just contact the new custodian and give them the details of where the IRA is at present, and they should handle all of the paperwork without needing you to be involved past that point. The last custodian-to-custodian transfer I did required only about one page of forms, and the transfer itself took about 4 weeks to complete once the forms were faxed to the new institution.

Your 401k does have fees (it's not free), but they may be hidden. Employers are required to make the fees more transparent now, but some are better at that than others. Your 401k may have much better investment choices than your old IRA, depending on where you work and what the options were for the old IRA. Some IRA custodians offer incredibly low-expense funds such as Vanguard or Fidelity (if you pick only the Fidelity Spartan funds; many Fidelity funds are quite expensive). Watch out for "management fees" or "wrap fees" on any account, and God help you if any accounts are actually equity-indexed annuities or some similar super-expensive beast.

If you're doing the IRA->401k shuffle so you can do a backdoor Roth conversion or are otherwise needing to lower the pre-tax basis of your IRA, then you may just need to slog through the IRA->401k pain.
Paelos
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Reply #214 on: July 13, 2015, 01:14:06 PM

Greece is the word. Everything's on the move upward.

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Reply #215 on: July 13, 2015, 01:17:44 PM

It's too late in the day to call my guy or google that.  Spill it! awesome, for real

Why am I homeless?  Why do all you motherfuckers need homes is the real question.
They called it The Prayer, its answer was law
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Paelos
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Reply #216 on: July 14, 2015, 05:12:11 AM

It's too late in the day to call my guy or google that.  Spill it! awesome, for real

Markets had the rally we expected due to the Greece decision. The DOW jumped 200 points, and the NASDAQ jumped almost 75 points.

In my personal holdings, COSTCO is up, Bank of the Ozarks, and Starbucks have all had great gains since I picked them up in Feb/Mar of this year. On average about 15-20% in that time frame.

In the family holdings, a company called ANACOR (ANAC) is up almost 56% in a day based on a study of their drug having positive results on eczema which has 25M potential customers in America.

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Reply #217 on: July 14, 2015, 05:38:34 AM

Ah well, in that area I guess I can say that I had a Facebook note come due with 31% over 12 months.

Why am I homeless?  Why do all you motherfuckers need homes is the real question.
They called it The Prayer, its answer was law
Mommy come back 'cause the water's all gone
Paelos
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Reply #218 on: July 16, 2015, 04:29:46 PM

I just pushed some money into CTL, Centurylink for the dividend yield. It's up about 2.5% on the day.

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Reply #219 on: July 16, 2015, 05:03:51 PM

So I've been trying to figure out what my annual rate of return has been on my messing-around rollover IRA so I can compare to my 401(k) which has only done 8 or 9% on good years. I think I'm doing the math wrong because I keep coming up with ~20% rate and I don't honestly believe I'm doing that good just dicking with a few stock picks.

The calculator I found online was this one:
http://www.calculatorsoup.com/calculators/financial/compound-interest-calculator.php

I set it to calculate for R and then enter my current value, the value from 4 years ago when I last rolled-over a 401(k) into the fund and calculated for that 4 year period (monthly)

It comes out to be 19.8916%

Can somebody tell me what I'm doing wrong in this calc please and thanks.

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Reply #220 on: July 16, 2015, 08:16:43 PM

Try this one.

https://www.dinkytown.net/java/AnnualReturn.html

But, depending on your start date, 20% annual return over the last four years is very possible.  The S&P 500 from its low in 2011 to today has  an 18% annualized rate of return.

"As democracy is perfected, the office of president represents, more and more closely, the inner soul of the people. On some great and glorious day the plain folks of the land will reach their heart's desire at last and the White House will be adorned by a downright moron.”

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Paelos
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Reply #221 on: July 17, 2015, 12:16:16 PM

Google's now up over 15% on the day, and 28% since we got it at the beginning of the year in the family holdings.

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Reply #222 on: July 17, 2015, 02:55:56 PM

And here I thought Google (and Apple) surely couldn't keep going up like bats out of hell. Sigh.

- Viin
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Reply #223 on: July 17, 2015, 09:09:23 PM

 DRILLING AND MANLINESS

Tuned in, immediately get to watch cringey Ubisoft talking head offering her deepest sympathies to the families impacted by the Orlando shooting while flanked by a man in a giraffe suit and some sort of "horrifically garish neon costumes through the ages" exhibit or something.  We need to stop this fucking planet right now and sort some shit out. -Kail
Paelos
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Reply #224 on: July 18, 2015, 10:03:58 AM

DRILLING AND MANLINESS

Exactly. I mean I don't own Apple, but still. The underlying accounting of both structures is on solid bedrock.

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Viin
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Reply #225 on: July 23, 2015, 03:04:47 PM


- Viin
Merusk
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Reply #226 on: July 23, 2015, 04:20:49 PM

This almost makes me happy enough to compensate for forgetting to buy Google 6 months ago when Paelos reminded me.  (I didn't have enough cash so I sold stuff to get some... then got busy and forgot about it until the 20% jump last week. Damnit.)

Of course none of that shows on the day, where it posted a 1.25% loss, as the gain was after-hours. Makes up for the day and then some, at least.
« Last Edit: July 23, 2015, 04:23:10 PM by Merusk »

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Paelos
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Reply #227 on: July 23, 2015, 06:44:05 PM

I've stayed out of Amazon, mostly because their margins are odd, and their EPS doesn't compare even close to something like Wal-Mart where the P/E is around 14.

But yeah, if there was a time it was this year. The stock is up roughly 60% since January. I think it's WILDLY overvalued, but then again if you're on short term plays it was a monster.
« Last Edit: July 24, 2015, 05:20:35 AM by Paelos »

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Soln
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Reply #228 on: July 23, 2015, 07:48:23 PM

« Last Edit: July 23, 2015, 07:50:08 PM by Soln »
Paelos
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Reply #229 on: July 24, 2015, 05:55:52 AM

Mmmmm dividend payment day. One of my favorite days of the quarter.

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Yegolev
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Reply #230 on: July 24, 2015, 07:24:55 AM

I believe the competition for Amazon cloud is basically Azure and Google.  Unfortunately, I haven't had time with either Azure or Google to make a comparison.  Still, if you spread across all three, I figure you'll ride the wave of commodity IT.

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Reply #231 on: July 24, 2015, 08:32:39 AM

Google doesn't have a cloud hosting solution. The scalable cloud virtualization market is pretty much AWS and Azure with Rackspace and VMware being the only other relatively big players though they are so far behind compared to AWS/Azure that you could say they don't even exist.

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Reply #232 on: July 24, 2015, 08:51:23 AM

I thought they had a thing called Google Compute Engine, but looks like I made some major assumptions from the context I learned of it from (notes on Cassandra performance vs AWS).

Why am I homeless?  Why do all you motherfuckers need homes is the real question.
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Reply #233 on: July 24, 2015, 09:02:57 AM

The margins are odd on Amazon, but they have a lot of pent up potential for revenue. If they stopped investing in innovation/research, they'd make money hand over fist until someone took them out.

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Reply #234 on: July 24, 2015, 09:04:09 AM

I thought they had a thing called Google Compute Engine, but looks like I made some major assumptions from the context I learned of it from (notes on Cassandra performance vs AWS).

They may have something but whatever it is is definitely not on demand server/storage virtualization like the other players.

'Reality' is the only word in the language that should always be used in quotes.
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Reply #235 on: July 24, 2015, 09:04:56 AM


- Viin
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Reply #236 on: July 24, 2015, 10:33:10 AM

Free trial wants payment info, so I'll probably just wait for it to come up in the tech rotation at work.

Whatever the current state, other than Google being Google I don't see any reason they would not try an entry into the wholesale-compute arena.

I could tell you who not to invest in, but I think we already know those names.

Why am I homeless?  Why do all you motherfuckers need homes is the real question.
They called it The Prayer, its answer was law
Mommy come back 'cause the water's all gone
Paelos
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Reply #237 on: August 05, 2015, 09:51:16 AM

Considering a play on TGH, Textainer group. The stock is plummeting, but the portfolio of cash is still very sound for the next 3 years. They are one of the largest lessors of fleet containers for shipping. It's down about 50% over the year but its dividend yield is still strong and its PE is less than 6.

It seems like a good gamble, but it's that. If you gamble right, you're getting a dividend and almost doubling your money within 3 years. Gamble wrong and you lose everything. If you're into more of a high risk play, it's one to consider.
« Last Edit: August 05, 2015, 09:52:56 AM by Paelos »

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Reply #238 on: August 05, 2015, 11:28:47 AM

Not for the faint of heart but Peabody Coal (BTU) at $1 is a reasonable speculation. The shares were $16 a year ago. The balance sheet isn't great but bankruptcy is not looming. Some other coal companies have filed Chap 11, but BTU is the best in a bad neighborhood.  A lot of successful investors bought stock in the $4-5 range.

It is not often that a possible 10x return comes our way. Don't be greedy but don't be scared either.  Invest only what you are willing to lose in this one.

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Reply #239 on: August 05, 2015, 11:34:43 AM

Considering a play on TGH, Textainer group. The stock is plummeting, but the portfolio of cash is still very sound for the next 3 years. They are one of the largest lessors of fleet containers for shipping. It's down about 50% over the year but its dividend yield is still strong and its PE is less than 6.

It seems like a good gamble, but it's that. If you gamble right, you're getting a dividend and almost doubling your money within 3 years. Gamble wrong and you lose everything. If you're into more of a high risk play, it's one to consider.

What's the story behind them crashing so hard? No, I only have time to post the question not Google it right now. .

Not for the faint of heart but Peabody Coal (BTU) at $1 is a reasonable speculation. The shares were $16 a year ago. The balance sheet isn't great but bankruptcy is not looming. Some other coal companies have filed Chap 11, but BTU is the best in a bad neighborhood.  A lot of successful investors bought stock in the $4-5 range.

It is not often that a possible 10x return comes our way. Don't be greedy but don't be scared either.  Invest only what you are willing to lose in this one.

Cheap natural gas, even cheaper solar and falling oil say fuck coal companies to me. That's why they're going bankrupt in the first place. There was a blurb on Marketplace this week about coal's struggles and the market - not Obama - being the one killing them right now.
« Last Edit: August 05, 2015, 11:36:16 AM by Merusk »

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Paelos
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Reply #240 on: August 05, 2015, 12:40:30 PM

TGH released a bad set of underwhelming earnings, and their is concern that their demand is weak over the next 6 months. But they can rebound with a new set of leases, and they have current lease revenues that don't expire for another 3 year minimum. They do leases on a long term greater than 5 year basis though.

EDIT: Also betting on coal right now is the extreme end of high risk. You essentially have no financial reason to pick up the stock other than the fact you're a contrarian and believe that the regulations will fuck themselves over while the market for coal will re-emerge.
« Last Edit: August 05, 2015, 12:51:41 PM by Paelos »

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shiznitz
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Reply #241 on: August 06, 2015, 12:23:31 PM

Cheap natural gas, even cheaper solar and falling oil say fuck coal companies to me. That's why they're going bankrupt in the first place. There was a blurb on Marketplace this week about coal's struggles and the market - not Obama - being the one killing them right now.

None of that is wrong, but those are reasons why the stock is already where it is. No stock goes from $16 to $1 on good news. Has the value of the coal in the ground declined by 99% in the past year? Highly doubtful. Is it worth less than previously thought? Probably. But there is a large space in between those two assessments.

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Reply #242 on: August 06, 2015, 01:44:41 PM

Cheap natural gas, even cheaper solar and falling oil say fuck coal companies to me. That's why they're going bankrupt in the first place. There was a blurb on Marketplace this week about coal's struggles and the market - not Obama - being the one killing them right now.

None of that is wrong, but those are reasons why the stock is already where it is. No stock goes from $16 to $1 on good news. Has the value of the coal in the ground declined by 99% in the past year? Highly doubtful. Is it worth less than previously thought? Probably. But there is a large space in between those two assessments.
To make that kind of bet, you have to do some deep digging into their leveraging, their net present liabilities, what they actually *own* when it comes to that coal in the ground (frequently all they own is an option to dig it up, with various restrictions). There may be some herd stampede going on right now that has left something in the sector grossly undervalued, but you'll need something better than a dartboard to pick it.

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Reply #243 on: August 09, 2015, 10:05:17 PM

I thought they had a thing called Google Compute Engine, but looks like I made some major assumptions from the context I learned of it from (notes on Cassandra performance vs AWS).

They may have something but whatever it is is definitely not on demand server/storage virtualization like the other players.

GCE and its related storage stuff is pretty competitive feature-wise with the likes of AWS/EC2/etc, very competitive price-wise, has some really slick features like seamless virtual host migration across physical server downtime, etc, but Amazon was there first and more middleware and existing deployments are integrated with Amazon solutions at the moment.
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Reply #244 on: August 10, 2015, 06:04:07 AM

Unsurprisingly, the term "cloud provider" is a widely-varied space.  The dust must settle from our 2nd provider deployment before we cast around for a 3rd, but I think GCE is on the radar for someone.

Why am I homeless?  Why do all you motherfuckers need homes is the real question.
They called it The Prayer, its answer was law
Mommy come back 'cause the water's all gone
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