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Author Topic: Stocks, bonds and investing  (Read 102289 times)
Paelos
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Reply #140 on: February 24, 2015, 06:19:05 AM

ARCP
KO
SYY
OZRK
FBIOX

Some of the current holdings. ARCP is a REIT which got busted for an accounting scandal, but the underlying real estate is still good. The price dropped to $7.50 when it happened, I snapped it up and I'm holding it.
Coke is my long-term holding. People always doomcast Coke and yet it still makes money year over year.
Sysco is the connection to every restaurant's supply chain for the most part. They are the lifeblood of the industry. Better economy means more restaurants which means more money for these guys.
Bank of Ozarks is a play I'm making based on some changes with bank regulations that could benefit mid-level banks. More will come on that as we go.
FBIOX is a Fidelity Biotech fund. It's earned 28.5% in 6 months. I'm looking to see how big it gets.

CPA, CFO, Sports Fan, Game when I have the time
Merusk
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Reply #141 on: February 24, 2015, 07:27:19 AM

Sysco also announced they are looking to merge with the 2nd largest food distributor in the US late last week. They are either doomed to stop growing or about to become a defacto monopoly. They're great at what they do, but I can't see them getting much bigger.

Thanks for pointing out FBIOX, I was looking for another one to toss money at since my international fund crapped-out last year at only 2%.


The past cannot be changed. The future is yet within your power.
Paelos
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Reply #142 on: February 24, 2015, 07:46:44 AM

Yeah I'm stuck in a large cap that's basically holding stead and throwing off divvies. But I'm probably going to dump it soon in favor of other things.

CPA, CFO, Sports Fan, Game when I have the time
Teleku
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Reply #143 on: February 24, 2015, 07:55:24 AM

Sysco is a god awful shitty evil company.  Which is why they make a big profit, but still, don't think I could morally bring self to own their stock.

"My great-grandfather did not travel across four thousand miles of the Atlantic Ocean to see this nation overrun by immigrants.  He did it because he killed a man back in Ireland. That's the rumor."
-Stephen Colbert
shiznitz
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Reply #144 on: February 24, 2015, 08:23:20 AM

Here is a simple idea. When the US Fed implemented QE (quantitative easing - basically, buying bonds in the public markets to keep interest rates low to boost the economy), US stock s rose because low interest rates encourage investors to take more risk.  When the Bank of Japan started QE in 2013, stocks rose. Now, the ECB - the Fed of Europe - has announced a new QE program.  So it is logical to buy Europe.

But QE can cause a country's currency to devalue. The Yen and the Euro have dropped sharply. So how do you protect yourself? There are ETFs that hedge the currency against the dollar. You won;t get hurt if the currency falls but you also won't benefit if the currency rises.

I recommend HEFA, an ETF that invests in the developed markets ex-US, and hedges the currency risk.  If you look it up, it will describe itself as tracking the MSCI EAFE Index.  EAFE stand for Europe, Australia, Far East (which is only Japan in this case).  Yes, calling Japan the Far East is anachronistic but EAFE is just shorthand that has been used for 30 years and it isn't going to change.

So, bottom line is that QE drives stocks up at the potential expense of currency so buy an ETF that invests in countries starting QE and hedge the currency.

HEFA.

If you want to just buy Japan, which generally is much cheaper than the US and Europe on a valuation basis, use HEWJ.

Both of these will give you good diversified exposure.
« Last Edit: February 24, 2015, 08:27:24 AM by shiznitz »

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rattran
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Unreasonable


Reply #145 on: February 24, 2015, 05:56:31 PM

Yegolev
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Reply #146 on: February 27, 2015, 10:54:54 AM

I'm partially betting on energy, which so far in 2015 has gotten me +4%.

Why am I homeless?  Why do all you motherfuckers need homes is the real question.
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Viin
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Reply #147 on: February 27, 2015, 11:44:26 AM

I'm just going to invest in whatever Elon Musk does.

- Viin
Paelos
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Reply #148 on: February 27, 2015, 12:03:49 PM

I'm considering AT&T as a 3-year conservative play due to the the dividend yield at 5.5% and an increase for the next few periods with the DirectTV purchase.

I want to get into bonds, but the chance the Fed fucks with rates mid-year is pushing me off that idea.

CPA, CFO, Sports Fan, Game when I have the time
Yegolev
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Reply #149 on: February 28, 2015, 08:13:24 PM

I'm just going to invest in whatever Elon Musk does.

That would be energy, sort of.  I understand he's intent on selling his batteries to residential solar setups.

I suppose if I was going to hitch to one man, why not Buffett?  Of course, he's 82 and as soon as I buy my first Berkshire Hathaway stock, he's going to buy his last Dairy Queen chili dog.

Why am I homeless?  Why do all you motherfuckers need homes is the real question.
They called it The Prayer, its answer was law
Mommy come back 'cause the water's all gone
Miasma
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Reply #150 on: March 01, 2015, 06:36:57 AM

He actually released a statement a few days ago that people shouldn't expect his fund to outperform the market the next fifty years like it has the last fifty.  Can you imagine some hedgefund sleezebag admitting such a thing?
Morat20
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Reply #151 on: March 01, 2015, 10:13:16 AM

He actually released a statement a few days ago that people shouldn't expect his fund to outperform the market the next fifty years like it has the last fifty.  Can you imagine some hedgefund sleezebag admitting such a thing?
Musk annoys me at times. His hyperloop thing, for instance -- it just flat out ignores to basic realities of transport. Like, you know, how much land costs and problems getting people to sell it -- and that the top speed of your system is nice, but the real time wasters are the part where you stop and people get on and off.

It irks me. It's like someone bragging that their new car gets 50% better mileage once you're past 120 mph. Thrilling engineering feat, but 99% of all cars are going a heck of a lot slower than that, Jeeves.
Paelos
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Reply #152 on: March 01, 2015, 11:50:20 AM

I follow Buffetts strategies. Long term holds, stocks that produce dividends, slow and steady portfolio growth with some 20% in aggressive growth.

CPA, CFO, Sports Fan, Game when I have the time
Viin
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Reply #153 on: March 01, 2015, 01:53:11 PM

Musk annoys me at times. His hyperloop thing, for instance -- it just flat out ignores to basic realities of transport. Like, you know, how much land costs and problems getting people to sell it -- and that the top speed of your system is nice, but the real time wasters are the part where you stop and people get on and off.

Sure, he dreams big but you'll notice he's a bit practical too. You don't see a company making a hyperloop (yet). His other ventures are doing well: SpaceX, Tesla, SolarCity.

- Viin
Miasma
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Reply #154 on: March 01, 2015, 04:10:01 PM

He actually released a statement a few days ago that people shouldn't expect his fund to outperform the market the next fifty years like it has the last fifty.  Can you imagine some hedgefund sleezebag admitting such a thing?
Musk annoys me at times. His hyperloop thing, for instance -- it just flat out ignores to basic realities of transport. Like, you know, how much land costs and problems getting people to sell it -- and that the top speed of your system is nice, but the real time wasters are the part where you stop and people get on and off.

It irks me. It's like someone bragging that their new car gets 50% better mileage once you're past 120 mph. Thrilling engineering feat, but 99% of all cars are going a heck of a lot slower than that, Jeeves.
?

I was referring to Buffet not Musk, not sure if you meant to quote me.  Musk has clearly done very well but he strikes me more of a hype man than someone solid.  Very good at PR and generating excitement but that leads to crazy overvaluations like Tesla.  I'd much rather have a nice boring old guy that buys other companies than a great salesperson touting his own company.
Torinak
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Reply #155 on: March 01, 2015, 04:41:22 PM

I follow Buffetts strategies. Long term holds, stocks that produce dividends, slow and steady portfolio growth with some 20% in aggressive growth.

If you're a multi-billionare, you too can do what he does--when he sees a company he likes, he doesn't "invest" in it--he buys it.

Or, you can invest like he says his family should: low-cost passive index funds.
Morat20
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Reply #156 on: March 01, 2015, 06:04:19 PM

I was referring to Buffet not Musk, not sure if you meant to quote me.  Musk has clearly done very well but he strikes me more of a hype man than someone solid.  Very good at PR and generating excitement but that leads to crazy overvaluations like Tesla.  I'd much rather have a nice boring old guy that buys other companies than a great salesperson touting his own company.
Think I just quoted the wrong person. :)
shiznitz
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Reply #157 on: March 02, 2015, 12:04:42 PM

I follow Buffetts strategies. Long term holds, stocks that produce dividends, slow and steady portfolio growth with some 20% in aggressive growth.

Look at OZM. Big hedge fund shop that pays out most of the profits as dividends. Ride the coattails of billionaires!

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Paelos
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Reply #158 on: March 02, 2015, 12:21:27 PM

Interesting. I may have to give that a shot to dump dividend money into other things.

CPA, CFO, Sports Fan, Game when I have the time
Paelos
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Reply #159 on: April 10, 2015, 06:28:38 AM

Added SBUX - Starbucks to the portfolio at the beginning of April. As of yesterday it went through a split so the timing is good. I'd recommend it as a play if you like the product. Their tax strategy is convoluted but I believe sound, they just offered employees a chance to earn a college degree they will pay for, and they are a potential growth player in the market still.

CPA, CFO, Sports Fan, Game when I have the time
Signe
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Reply #160 on: April 12, 2015, 09:19:14 AM

I saw that and even I thought it was nice.  I also didn't get the problem over talking about race.  Of course, most of the people who don't blink at spending $4 or $5 for a cup of coffee probably don't care about that sort of thing.  Coffee shops USED to be a place to talk but now it's a place to bury your face in a keyboard, rest your feet from shopping at Nordstrom or look over the books you're about to buy. 

Why would my spell checker suggest Strongroom instead of Nordstrom?  What the fuck is a Strongroom??

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Nebu
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Reply #161 on: April 12, 2015, 10:24:41 AM

Is the market still a good place to put money?  We're at such a high water mark for the DOW and NASDAQ that I'd think looking elsewhere would be better.  Any ideas about the bond market with the impending interest rate increases coming this summer?

"Always do what is right. It will gratify half of mankind and astound the other."

-  Mark Twain
Paelos
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Reply #162 on: April 12, 2015, 12:53:17 PM

Is the market still a good place to put money?  We're at such a high water mark for the DOW and NASDAQ that I'd think looking elsewhere would be better.  Any ideas about the bond market with the impending interest rate increases coming this summer?

I'm off the bond market completely until they make a decision on rates. If they do nothing by October, I'm back in.

Right now, the market is fine, but I'm putting less money in current growth plays and more money in established companies that pay dividends in case of a market shift this summer. Obviously both established and growth is ideal.

CPA, CFO, Sports Fan, Game when I have the time
shiznitz
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Reply #163 on: April 14, 2015, 02:13:22 PM

At this stage of the market cycle, there are a few ways to go.

1) chase what is hot: as long as the market holds up, this will be the where the greatest gains will be, but risks significant and sharp losses if the Fed acts quickly on rate increases. Examples are biotech (Celgene) and internet (Facebook, Zulilly).

2) find good companies that have not risen with the market: these will likely get some investor attention from those not willing to keep chasing the winners and will hold up better if the market rolls over. Examples are Coke, Paccar, Proctor & Gamble.

3) just wait: if you have not invested yet, you have missed a 200% run. Is missing the next 20-30% going to really matter at this point? Wait and pounce on the next 20-30% sell off.

Stock markets sell off for two reasons: recession or rising interest rates. I don't think a recession is a risk for at least 2 years but rising rates are.  Currently, investors believe rates will rise a lot slower than the Fed is messaging.

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Torinak
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Reply #164 on: April 14, 2015, 03:14:24 PM

Is the market still a good place to put money?  We're at such a high water mark for the DOW and NASDAQ that I'd think looking elsewhere would be better.  Any ideas about the bond market with the impending interest rate increases coming this summer?

What does your investment policy statement say? Having some kind of basic investment policy can help you ignore all the noise from whatever the latest financial porn pushers are yelling. An IPS can be as simple as "Aim for a 70/30 mix of stocks and bonds in low-cost passive index funds" or "jump on whatever hot stock is pushed on my favorite gaming forum until I lose my house".

A steadily rising market will hit new highs on a regular basis.

The "experts" (pundits with agendas to push) have been crying about inflation and higher interest rates for several years; listening to them would have resulted in missing out on substantial returns in most bond funds. Rates will rise at some point, but they don't know when any better than I do. Besides, any news should already be priced into the markets, unless you have better information than, say, Goldman Sachs.

If you're really uncertain about what to do, you can dollar-cost-average into the market. If the market keeps going up, you won't miss out on all the gains. If the market goes down, you'll buy more at lower prices. But more importantly, you don't have to waste your time guessing about what's going to happen.
Shannow
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Reply #165 on: April 14, 2015, 06:13:02 PM

Is the market still a good place to put money? 

Yes, however you are asking the wrong question. If you are an individual investor stop trying to guess the market. You'll get it wrong (fuck most of the experts do to). Over the last 20 years the S&P 500 averaged 9.2% annual returns, the average investor? 2.50%? (Inflation has been 2.4% over the same time.:))

So the question isn't whether its a good place. The question is it right for me? What age are you? How much do you have saved? Kids? Family? Income? Location?

(and seriously an IPS?  swamp poop)

If the answer to the first two questions are under 50 and 'not enough' then put your money in the market and forget the password to whatever account it is. Find it again when you are 50, then we'll talk.

Someone liked something? Who the fuzzy fuck was this heretic? You don't come to this website and enjoy something. Fuck that. ~ The Walrus
Paelos
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Reply #166 on: April 14, 2015, 07:56:22 PM

The market is a great place to make money if you believe in a long term strategy and you don't panic easy.

Oh and you believe America won't crumble in 30 years.

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Viin
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Reply #167 on: April 14, 2015, 09:24:36 PM

Speaking of investing (and my 401k) does anyone have a link to a good but not crazy in-depth calculator for determining if current retirement savings + future retirement savings + investment growth will provide a sufficient nest egg? Most of the ones I've found on Google are really too basic.

- Viin
Abagadro
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Reply #168 on: April 14, 2015, 10:45:24 PM

bankrate.com has some good calculators on it but they might be too basic.

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Torinak
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Reply #169 on: April 14, 2015, 11:36:35 PM

Speaking of investing (and my 401k) does anyone have a link to a good but not crazy in-depth calculator for determining if current retirement savings + future retirement savings + investment growth will provide a sufficient nest egg? Most of the ones I've found on Google are really too basic.

Pretty much every brokerage has some form of retirement calculator; they have varying degrees of sophistication. Schwab's lets you fiddle with a fair number of parameters but isn't too crazy. Vanguard's makes it easy to tweak assumptions and see the results. Fidelity's non-basic tools pretty much require a login as far as I can tell.

The "gold standard" of planners is probably I-ORP, as it computes both savings and spending down in retirement, including tax issues, IRA->Roth conversions, etc. It's a bit of a beast, though.

For more free-form modeling, there's Firecalc which is mostly about longevity of savings based on one's portfolio, though it does have an option to model starting well before retirement (the "Not Retired?" tab). It may not be quite what you're looking for.
 
There are also a lot of really bad calculators out there. The biggest issues IMO are ones that assume overly optimistic rates of return (e.g., 8% nominal and up), or ones that make unrealistic assumptions about spending needs in retirement. There are many "rules of thumb" such as needing to replace 80% or 100% of one's income in retirement, but that fails to account for the many major changes in spending and savings habits that usually occur with retirement--such as no longer saving for retirement, often lower taxes, no child-related expenses, and often higher health care.
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Reply #170 on: April 15, 2015, 07:49:47 AM

The market is a great place to make money if you believe in a long term strategy and you don't panic easy.

Oh and you believe America won't crumble in 30 years.

So you're saying I should invest heavily in a water/ bullet portfolio.  What are your views on fortification options?

The past cannot be changed. The future is yet within your power.
Paelos
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Reply #171 on: April 15, 2015, 08:12:16 AM

Speaking of investing (and my 401k) does anyone have a link to a good but not crazy in-depth calculator for determining if current retirement savings + future retirement savings + investment growth will provide a sufficient nest egg? Most of the ones I've found on Google are really too basic.

You can create some simple models if you have a spreadsheet. Just have one column with how much you want to add per year. Then the column next to that is your total account value from the year before plus the amount you added. Then you multiply that by an return rate plus 1. So 5% return is 1.05. You can run that for however many years and change the variables to get an idea.

Example, if you want $1M in 25 years. You need to contribute $10,500 + ($1000 x N-1) where N is the number of years you do this for 25 years. That's at a rate of 5% return. However, if you have a 6% return you would only need to start with $8500 as a starting point instead of $10500.

You can also calculate how many years that Theoretical million dollars would last by subtracting however much you need to live per year from the formula instead of adding money to it. In this example at 6% return, you could pull out $70k for 28 years before the money ran out.

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Merusk
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Reply #172 on: April 15, 2015, 08:19:18 AM

Shit. You know when you see a solution so obvious you feel like an idiot for not realizing it yourself?

 I was doing that first step to gague my portfolio at retirement but never thought to reverse it with estimated expenses to see how long it would last.  Thanks monkey. 

Obviously i would want the "amount withdrawn" to increase per year due to inflation and price increases.  Is 3% as good a historical value to use as I assume it is?

The past cannot be changed. The future is yet within your power.
Paelos
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Reply #173 on: April 15, 2015, 08:22:02 AM

Inflation has been a lot lower recently, but it depends on what you believe. It's been trending lower for the last 10 years.

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Viin
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Reply #174 on: April 15, 2015, 08:39:01 AM

Thanks for the tips and pointers to other calculators. I found this one which seems like a good starting point (and is the easiest for me to see how I could do this in a spreadsheet): http://www.calcxml.com/calculators/are-my-current-retirement-savings-sufficient

Now I have to do an exercise to figure out how much we'd spend per year in retirement in 2035 dollars. Can't someone just give me the answer?!?  swamp poop

- Viin
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