Predictions: 1m+ players 3 days out; how about in January 2013?

[Paelos]

The CEO reported it as a current 1.7M subs and growing, so I'm guessing that he's anticipating a draw from all their advertising efforts.

We'll see.

[Simond]

You needed card details to play the game (as per the typical MMO set up) so those numbers read "We sold 2 million boxes and 1.7 million of them were actually used". The useful numbers will be this time next month.

[Nevermore]

The CEO reported it as a current 1.7M subs and growing, so I'm guessing that he's anticipating a draw from all their advertising efforts.

We'll see.

I've seen a lot of ads for the game on Comedy Central.  They've been advertising in conjunction with the theater release of Episode I in 3d.

[Miasma]

I'll stick the no-punctuation review here.  He hates all mmos so it's what you expect.

[Lakov_Sanite]

This game is exactly what I was expecting, fun but no real stickiness to it.  My prior statement holds

[Sjofn]

I'll stick the no-punctuation review here.  He hates all mmos so it's what you expect.

Ahahaha, he had Corso as his buddy. 

[Paelos]

I do like his quote about getting to a point with every MMO, going WTF AM I DOING? And going back to being a productive member of society.

Silly Yahtzee, you were never productive. 

[Ginaz]

You needed card details to play the game (as per the typical MMO set up) so those numbers read "We sold 2 million boxes and 1.7 million of them were actually used". The useful numbers will be this time next month.

You actually think 300k people paid for the game and didn't play?   Good lord.

They sold 2 million copies.  1.7 million decided to sub past the "free" month.  300k didn't.   Today, 1 Feb. 2012, there are 1.7 million subs.  End.

[Rendakor]

You actually think 300k people paid for the game and didn't play?   Good lord.

They sold 2 million copies.  1.7 million decided to sub past the "free" month.  300k didn't.   Today, 1 Feb. 2012, there are 1.7 million subs.  End.

Um, no. From the fucking article itself and also from a post 8 posts above yours (and bolded just to be sure):

The company launched “Star Wars” in late December, and reported it has sold through more than 2 million units of the game and now has about 1.7 million active subscribers playing the online multiplayer title, which Brown said represents a mix of users who already have signed up for a paid subscription and users who have given their credit cards over, but have not yet had their paid plans kick in.

That means some of those 1.7m are still on their free month. My guess is that most of those 300k are sitting in warehouses and retail storefronts; "sold" from EA's perspective but not actually in the hands of customers.

[ajax34i]

Actually I think it's entirely possible that 300k boxes have been bought but not been used.  These were Christmas presents, and grandma doesn't always know if the computer specs meet minimum requirements, what kind of internet connection there is, etc.

[Merusk]

Sometimes I forget we have member of the audience that don't stretch back to UO.

That is an entirely normal metric, every game has had it since at LEAST UO confirmed by Raph and other developers over the last 14 years.  For whatever reason a significant percentage of people buy a MMO and then *never even install it.*   Another percentage installs and creates an account but then never logs-in.

One I can chalk-up to collectors, "granny" purchases and (these days) e-bay speculators (An unopened WOW original CE still sells for >$1800 - a 14x profit from 7 years ago.)   The other - the ones who create the account but then never log-in?  Probably hung-up on the whole credit card thing.   

If anything that number's low, because I could swear it had been ~30% in the past and 300k is only 15%.

[Shatter]

Based on my guild of over 150 players at launch and having over 50+ players online per day we are down to mid 20's nightly online.  Last night was in the teens.  We can hit 30+ on weekends.  I know of a number who admitedly quit due to Ilum and BS PvP.  People are definitely logging in less or playing alts, we even formed a republic guild.  I know a number of people who signed up for the 3 month deal, I think that will be an interesting hurdle for them and sub retention. 

[Nebu]

Based on my guild of over 150 players at launch and having over 50+ players online per day we are down to mid 20's nightly online.  Last night was in the teens.  We can hit 30+ on weekends.  I know of a number who admitedly quit due to Ilum and BS PvP.  People are definitely logging in less or playing alts, we even formed a republic guild.  I know a number of people who signed up for the 3 month deal, I think that will be an interesting hurdle for them and sub retention.  

My guild is made up of 10 pretty hardcore gamers.  The first month after release you'd see everyone on their level 50 every night.  This week it has been 3-4 of us online and all of us are leveling alts.  I want this game to do well, but it's just not MMO enough for most MMO enthusiasts.  

Personally, I'm enjoying the ability to solo and see the world.  The game has the fun of DCUO and the solo play of CoH/CoV.  I just wish that I could find a way to make zones load faster.   

[Fabricated]

I just hit 50, and Goon Squad is down to like 25-30 people on weekdays from 50-70. We cut 100+ inactive accounts from the guild; leaving about 270 or so people who actually log in.

[Lakov_Sanite]

For me the defining moment in the game so far was when I was in nar shaada and I saw a flightpoint to "X casino" I surmised it must be some cross-faction area like a catina or something, maybe some rp goes down there, who knows.  So I was curious took the trip down there and...

Nothing, nota vendor, not another player, not a mini-game and not even pazaak, which the scripted npc's were talking about.  It was just this big empty zone that seemed to serve no purpose at all. Then I realized at some point it was supposed to have a reason, maybe there were supposed to be mingames and gambling or maybe that was still planned but not implemented?

Either way it made me realize how there really wasn't much beyond the treadmill and the story, while interesting does have an ending.  There's no stickiness, nothing invested.  I'm not sure wow was any different back in the day but it was original enough that it kept people playing until they made some sort of endgame.  In swtor, people see things like empty areas or realize if they don't wanna pvp they're done and they just call it a day.

[Threash]

The casino was part of my bounty hunter quest.

[eldaec]

It shows up in the inquisitor storyline as well.

[Paelos]

It's still incredibly stupid that they didn't include any kind of gambling in the game, then show you the casino and the awesome looking tables.

Pazaak would be an endgame unto itself.

[tmp]

There's even a pazaak table that you can click on at the beginnig of Esseles flashpoint iirc... except when you click on it you only get an error about not being possible to join 'at this time' or something to that effect.

[Nebu]

There's even a pazaak table that you can click on at the beginnig of Esseles flashpoint iirc... except when you click on it you only get an error about not being possible to join 'at this time' or something to that effect.

This still makes me rage.  What a missed opportunity for an Easter Egg.

[Lakov_Sanite]

Easter egg? fuck that. Blizzard is realizing people want more 'game' than treadmill and panda expansion is adding pokemon which while a stupid minigame is at least depth beyond raiding for many.  The future is farmville, bioware/ea needs to realize this.

[Nebu]

The future is farmville...

Someone hand me a gun. 

[Paelos]

Easter egg? fuck that. Blizzard is realizing people want more 'game' than treadmill and panda expansion is adding pokemon which while a stupid minigame is at least depth beyond raiding for many.  The future is farmville, bioware/ea needs to realize this.

The future is depth to a game beyond a simplistic one track rail. I think you drew the wrong conclusion. People like distractions. They like to have other things to play instead of just running uphill.

[Lakov_Sanite]

Quick diversions you can pick up and put down like Hero's academy, farmville, any iphone/facebook game.  People would still pay $15 a month if there was enough quick content to keep them occupied.  

Yes the storylines are great but sometimes people don't want the standard mmo treadmill. Imagine not having more than 30 minutes so you log on, play a few rounds of pazaak while your companions go off and craft for you.  Now compare that to using your 30 minutes to remember where you were in the world, where you needed to go and maybe have time to finish one quest before you log.

It's not a perfect example and yes pvp could sometimes fill that niche but pvp itself is one type of minigame that not everyone is that big on.  It's really a missed opportunity to try and expand what an mmo is and I do think it will hurt their potential profits.

Edit:I think you and I are in agreement paelos, I am just wording it differently.  The side content should be on top of an already established mmo framework not replacing it.

[Paelos]

Yes, I agree, more depth. The more mini-games, side-games, and distraction collection things you put in the game, the better. It adds content and lets people determine their own level of involvement.

[Malakili]

Yes, I agree, more depth. The more mini-games, side-games, and distraction collection things you put in the game, the better. It adds content and lets people determine their own level of involvement.

Somewhat ironically, this reminds me of that interview of Richard Garriott from a while back, who pointed out that Ultima Online had lots of the "mini games" which people are now loving in the social media type games...

[Ghambit]

Game at this point is starting to feel like the 1st 2 months of AoC, 'cept AoC showed more promise and is at this point likely a better overall game (I still regret having left it actually, and Rift too).  SWTOR is essentially one long Tortage and that's it really.  Pvp is stale, guilds are stale, economy doesnt exist (which makes it near impossible to maintain every companion plus a ship w/o going broke), endgame is a joke, the galaxy feels dead, etc.  It really goes no further than a story-based dollhouse.

I foresee 300k subs in 6 months.  Not feelin it longterm.  Am I enjoying it presently though?  sure.  But they need a few miracle patches at the 3-month mark to sticky the swtor thread.

[Nebu]

So SWTOR becomes a data point on the grand MMO experiment.  Here is a summary of what SWTOR has reminded me of:

- Too sandbox = niche
- Too on rails = niche
- Players see leveling as a gateway to content rather than the game itself. 
- PvP has a bigger following than I had previously considered
- Licensing a household name isn't enough. (I'l also looking at you Star Trek, WAR, Matrix, DCUO, etc.)
- Being good at one type of game may not predict success in another
- The MMO industry is a nepotistic cesspool where the same ideas continually rise to the surface.
- Voiceovers and story are cool once.
- Having an NPC companion can be as annoying as it is helpful (see also GW and any other MMO with pet classes)
- MMO's are as reliant on gameplay mechanics as they are UI streamlining
- The little things (mini-games, crafting, a thriving economy, appearance tab, housing, etc) do matter. 
- If your game is on rails, try not to add a mini-game that is also obviously on rails. 

I'll see what else comes to mind.  I like lists, remember?

[Ingmar]

You people. 

[K9]

I'd play a pokemon MMO; hell I'd probably buy a new phone if it offered Pokemon

[Nebu]

I'd play a pokemon MMO; hell I'd probably buy a new phone if it offered Pokemon

Schild enjoys making fun of me because I'll play anything labeled an MMO.  Maybe he's making fun of me because I play them and then complain about how they're all the same. 

I get it.  Now I know why he's making fun of me.  I'm an idiot. 

[Draegan]

Lotta goal post moving in this thread.

[Nebu]

If this game maintains more than 400k subs after 6 months it will be due to either some significant content additions or the Star Wars franchise.  I'm bored with the endgame already and the game has been out barely a month.

I don't know.  I think I'm pretty consistent. 

[K9]

I'd play a pokemon MMO; hell I'd probably buy a new phone if it offered Pokemon

Schild enjoys making fun of me because I'll play anything labeled an MMO.  Maybe he's making fun of me because I play them and then complain about how they're all the same. 

I get it.  Now I know why he's making fun of me.  I'm an idiot. 

I wasn't making a dig at you, I was (belatedly) following up on lakov and Paelos' comments up-page.

[Nebu]

I wasn't making a dig at you, I was (belatedly) following up on lakov and Paelos' comments up-page.

It's ok.  I'm kind of laughing at myself at this point.  I didn't take anything as a slight.