Predictions: 1m+ players 3 days out; how about in January 2013?

[Nebu]

Quality of Life and Polish, for beginners.  It's not like I'm a DIKU fan-girl.

My memory may be getting fuzzy with age, but WoW was pretty bug ridden the first 3 months as I remember. SWTOR also seems to be much better in terms of quality of life for people that enjoy solo play. 

[Fordel]

WoW release issues were mostly about it's item server database being completely unable to handle the demand, causing that infamous 'looting bug' where you got stuck waiting for your grey crap on a corpse.


They also had the most finicky installer I had ever experienced at the time. My computer at the time, it took on average something like 5 attempts before a install of WoW would stick, then I was constantly having to delete my WoW Cache folders due to file corruptions causing the game to crash constantly. If your HD or Memory wasn't PERFECT, WoW would just shit all over it for like the first year of the game.


It was a stark contrast to say, the Guild Wars installer/client, which also had issues with things getting corrupted BUT, the GW client just fixed itself on the fly on every boot up of the game or loading of a fresh zone. All you noticed as a player was a loading screen that took an extra 15 seconds.

[Nebu]

WoW seemed to be amazingly bug free compared to AO, Shadowbane, etc.  It was also far more feature complete compared to any other MMO released to that point.  The UI was lacking, the loot system was a nightmare, and there were some pesky quest bugs that needed to be cleaned up.  I do agree that their launch was pretty impressive given their fan base and compared to the MMO's prior to it.

[Merusk]

Quality of Life and Polish, for beginners.  It's not like I'm a DIKU fan-girl.

My memory may be getting fuzzy with age, but WoW was pretty bug ridden the first 3 months as I remember. SWTOR also seems to be much better in terms of quality of life for people that enjoy solo play. 

Your problem could be that you keep playing these things at release, then.  WoW got much better over time in terms of QOL - until Cataclysm.  I can't say I care for much of the endgame right now but in terms of the leveling it was always improving in incremental, if small, ways.

TOR suffers in always feeling weak.  They introduce too many strong+5 and strong-strong mob encounters as you level-up and all the leveling fights feel like they're taking too damn long.   A fight on my ok-equipped BH at 46 takes longer than a fight on my 25 marauder.  It's sucked my will to grind out the last 5 levels on him because of it.   I still want to see the story, but fuck the encounters and all the ability juggling.   The 200-ability-only-use-4 shit appeals to a segment of the population that hates DIKU in the first place, so why introduce it?

I'm still enjoying the game, but it has definite and clear weak points.  We'll see if BA can address them but I don't hold much hope. I certainly have no desire to participate in the endgame of TOR at all.  Leveling alts and dinking around at lower levels is much more fun than high-level and that's a big problem.

[Nebu]

Your problem could be that you keep playing these things at release, then.  WoW got much better over time in terms of QOL - until Cataclysm.  I can't say I care for much of the endgame right now but in terms of the leveling it was always improving in incremental, if small, ways.

I didn't think I had a problem, just an opinion.  

Perhaps we should cut TOR a little slack as it too will improve with time.  Bioware is already showing infinitely more responsiveness to fixes and to the playerbase than Blizzard.  I'd say that's a good start.  I do agree that Bioware should have learned lessons from the past, but as we've all noted, it's tougher to implement ideas than it is to generate them.  

[Hoax]

Making this prediction is hard if you don't follow the medium closely enough to know what's supposed to come out this year. Diablo3 is fantasy and not MMO so it seems like that wouldn't have a large impact and I'm not aware of any other AAA MMO titles off hand.

[Rendakor]

Guild Wars 2 maybe?

[Numtini]

Making this prediction is hard if you don't follow the medium closely enough to know what's supposed to come out this year. Diablo3 is fantasy and not MMO so it seems like that wouldn't have a large impact and I'm not aware of any other AAA MMO titles off hand.

I think Diablo 3 is relevant because the market has expanded past the old hardcore MMO market and as MMOs have dumbed themselves down to being little more than a visual game lobby, a game with a non-visual game lobby is more likely to pull players away.

[Merusk]

Your problem could be that you keep playing these things at release, then.  WoW got much better over time in terms of QOL - until Cataclysm.  I can't say I care for much of the endgame right now but in terms of the leveling it was always improving in incremental, if small, ways.

I didn't think I had a problem, just an opinion.  

Well, I meant perspective, not "omg ur wong!" problem.  Came off a little more aggressive than I wanted.

I meant you always seem to come at the games in the rough first few-months, burn out and then never return to see changes or how it's evolved.  Maybe I'm mistaken in your game history, but it seems you reference WoW of 5-6 years ago vs WoW of a year or two ago.  They're VASTLY different games in terms of the way the user approaches things and the information you get back.  (Systems-wise there's some refinements but Diku is Diku, so you don't look for innovation there.)

Making this prediction is hard if you don't follow the medium closely enough to know what's supposed to come out this year. Diablo3 is fantasy and not MMO so it seems like that wouldn't have a large impact and I'm not aware of any other AAA MMO titles off hand.

I think Diablo 3 is relevant because the market has expanded past the old hardcore MMO market and as MMOs have dumbed themselves down to being little more than a visual game lobby, a game with a non-visual game lobby is more likely to pull players away.

It's relevant to a segment, but not the whole market.  The question is how big that segment is.  I know for a fact I'm not one of the interested segment and there's others on this board who hold the same low opinion of D2 and don't seem to be interested in D3 at all.   The genre bores me to tears and I find it odd that those who level withering criticisms at MMOs in general don't see how Diabloesque games refine the 'shit' part (their opinion) of MMOs into an even more transparent version of the same loot dance they grouse about.  With more hours involved.

[Sjofn]

People aren't going to quit their MMO for D3 any more than they quit their MMO for, say, Skyrim. They might play less for a while, but I don't know anyone who quit an MMO for a non-MMO. They quit out of boredom, they quit because they don't like the game, they quit because they're out of shit to do, they quit because the new shiny MMO came out, but they never go "YES DRAGON AGE CAME OUT GOODBYE FOREVER WOW" or whatever.

[Typhon]

I don't know, you can have four people in your group in SWTOR and you can have four people online together in D3.  For people who don't give a rats ass about the first 'M' in MMO and just want to play with friends, I'm not seeing much of a difference.  I think it will have an impact. 

[Sjofn]

For like a month. Maybe. And people aren't going to cancel their subscriptions for it.

[Rendakor]

I know at least a few of my WoW guildies were only still playing WoW until D3 came out; not sure how big a chunk it will take from SWTOR but there is a substantial overlap between MMO (read: WoW) players and hardcore Diablo fans.

[ajax34i]

I've quit EVE for single-player games (X3TC, then FalloutNV, and Skyrim) and other reasons, but it's hard to tell, really, because EVE did have incentives to keep your subscription going, and WoW does have cycles and I will time my single-player gaming to coincide with the between-expansions periods.  Still, I don't know about others, but personally I will turn of the MMO subscription when I'm not playing it, and as far as going back, it is a matter of what the new expansion is offering.

[Thrawn]

For like a month. Maybe. And people aren't going to cancel their subscriptions for it.

I dunno, they might not quit FOR Diablo 3 (although I think people will) , but in my experience people get bored of an MMO long before they actually realize they are bored of it.  MMO's become such habit to just log in and do whatever grind that when someone plays D3 for like a month and then realizes "hey, I never logged into SWTOR except to do a daily/raid/whatever" they will be dropping subscriptions.

I know that personally the first two times I quit WoW it was because my computer was down for a week or so and it made me realize how much I didn't miss the game.  I think the same thing could apply here.

[FieryBalrog]

He also isn't doing "the exact same thing" by any means:

* WoW part, 4 strafes between 0:10 and 0:18, once per 2 seconds.
* SWOTR part, 5 strafes between 0:26 and 0:31, once a second

is it still any wonder he's getting different results?

Incorrect, there are 5 strafes between 0:10 and 0:18.

Also, the SWTOR part he strafes faster because the spell fails to fire after the strafe + button press, so he just tries again without having to wait for the spell to cast.

[tmp]

Incorrect, there are 5 strafes between 0:10 and 0:18.

Also, the SWTOR part he strafes faster because the spell fails to fire after the strafe + button press, so he just tries again without having to wait for the spell to cast.

The 5th is right *after* 0:18 mark.

I'd argue what happens is the game doesn't produce the progress indicator so he moves sooner than he should, breaking the cast which is actually being prepared and producing the error. Either way it fails to demonstrate "same behaviour, different effect" because the player's behaviour simply isn't the same. Whatever reasons he may have for it.

[apocrypha]

People aren't going to quit their MMO for D3 any more than they quit their MMO for, say, Skyrim. They might play less for a while, but I don't know anyone who quit an MMO for a non-MMO. They quit out of boredom, they quit because they don't like the game, they quit because they're out of shit to do, they quit because the new shiny MMO came out, but they never go "YES DRAGON AGE CAME OUT GOODBYE FOREVER WOW" or whatever.

But D3 isn't just a single player game with a clear-cut completion point for many people. It's an open-ended, continual character advancement, loot farming game, which has the potential for some people to replace an MMO in their gaming time.

Not generalising, some people of course will play through D3 once or twice and never touch online play at all. But many other will play online for a loooooong time probably.

[Hutch]

I cancelled my SWTOR sub on Sunday. This is my mini-review/post-mortem. Spoilered since it's kind of long, and to spare people who don't like to read farewell posts.


tl;dr: What it all boils down to is this. When I'm sitting at my PC, deciding what game to play, I'd rather log into WoW. I made the same decision regarding Rift, nearly a year ago now. Maybe SWTOR will be a better MMO at some point in the future. I'm sure it's not going anywhere.

[Merusk]

People aren't going to quit their MMO for D3 any more than they quit their MMO for, say, Skyrim. They might play less for a while, but I don't know anyone who quit an MMO for a non-MMO. They quit out of boredom, they quit because they don't like the game, they quit because they're out of shit to do, they quit because the new shiny MMO came out, but they never go "YES DRAGON AGE CAME OUT GOODBYE FOREVER WOW" or whatever.

But D3 isn't just a single player game with a clear-cut completion point for many people. It's an open-ended, continual character advancement, loot farming game, which has the potential for some people to replace an MMO in their gaming time.

Not generalising, some people of course will play through D3 once or twice and never touch online play at all. But many other will play online for a loooooong time probably.

Yes.  And those people are the ones I was referring to in their bitching about MMOs while playing the same endless grind game under a different banner.

ed: Hutch; that post is entirely too long for a feedback slot on a 'why did you cancel' form.  They're looking for bullet lists, not essays.  Even if it hadn't timed-out on you it would have told you too many characters.   Nobody in business who makes decisions reads essays. Bullet lists give nice data points and checklists.

[ajax34i]

tl;dr: When I'm sitting at my PC, deciding what game to play, I'd rather log into WoW.

You like some things but also hate some things, but you like WoW, so you're going to play that.  I kinda looked at the (SWTOR) game with a critical eye yesterday too, and decided to abandon my L35 Jedi Guardian for now in order to play Empire-side, because everyone says (and the sever populations show) that Empire is more polished.  So why struggle with the bugs and annoyances on the Republic side, makes no sense.

When I'm sitting at my PC deciding what to play, though, single player games are ahead of WoW on the list, as there are several good ones I haven't started / finished yet, and one or two that have good replayability.  So it'll be SWTOR until I'm bored with the storylines, then back to single player, then we'll see.

[01101010]

Even if it hadn't timed-out on you it would have told you too many characters.   Nobody in business who makes decisions reads essays. Bullet lists give nice data points and checklists.

Sad truth... with emphasis on SAD. Everything is twittered down to datapoints anymore.

[Miasma]

tl;dr: When I'm sitting at my PC, deciding what game to play, I'd rather log into WoW.

You like some things but also hate some things, but you like WoW, so you're going to play that.  I kinda looked at the (SWTOR) game with a critical eye yesterday too, and decided to abandon my L35 Jedi Guardian for now in order to play Empire-side, because everyone says (and the sever populations show) that Empire is more polished.  So why struggle with the bugs and annoyances on the Republic side, makes no sense.

People don't play empire because of polish, they play it because it is just more fun.  The worst empire side storyline is superior to the best republic storyline.  I don't think they did a great job with the republic quests (I've only played each class of theirs up to 16 or so though).  Both jedi classes seem dull and boring, which makes sense considering what they are supposed to be, but it would be pretty hard to write for given that.

I also don't really like how the republic itself is portrayed.  I thought it would be all virtuous and united in striving against evil but the quests make plain that it is full of scum and corruption from top to bottom.  That kind of takes the wind out of any pride which would normally come from fighting the good fight.

It is also surprising how important the voice actor is.  I don't know about the female voices but having played all eight classes off their starter planets empire just has better male voices.  The republic aren't bad, they're good too, just not as good.  That is obviously only my opinion though.

[Hutch]

ed: Hutch; that post is entirely too long for a feedback slot on a 'why did you cancel' form.  They're looking for bullet lists, not essays.  Even if it hadn't timed-out on you it would have told you too many characters.   Nobody in business who makes decisions reads essays. Bullet lists give nice data points and checklists.

This post is inspired by the feedback that I tried to type into the box, when I went through the cancellation process on my account page.
...
Here, I'm going to expound a little more and also review some things that have occurred to me since then.

The original feedback was considerably shorter than what you see here. I didn't mention art or music, the gripes about dual spec and mods were in fact bullets, and the rest of it has been expanded in this version.  It might have still been too long for the storage field, but that field now contains one gripe, which is that the cancellation page timed out on me. Maybe the next person who cancels will get to finish their thoughts :)

[Nebu]

This game is really starting to remind me more and more of CoH/CoV.  It's a very fun 1-50 game, but lacks any kind of stickiness.  I have a hard time believing that the story driven game play will keep the masses interested for long.  I will enjoy this as my "go to" mmo for a while, but mostly because it's so very solo friendly.  I don't see how it will maintain more than 300-400k subs after the 6 month mark.  It just doesn't have the endgame appeal that the WoW crowd is accustomed to. 

[Thrawn]

As far as I've seen it currently doesn't seem to have any endgame appeal, period.  The only attractive end game activity seems to be making alts to see another class or factions main quest line.

[tmp]

I also don't really like how the republic itself is portrayed.  I thought it would be all virtuous and united in striving against evil but the quests make plain that it is full of scum and corruption from top to bottom.  That kind of takes the wind out of any pride which would normally come from fighting the good fight.

Obvious analogy is obvious.

[01101010]

As far as I've seen it currently doesn't seem to have any endgame appeal, period.  The only attractive end game activity seems to be making alts to see another class or factions main quest line.

Didn't we come to this conclusion months ago... and for every MMO that has come out?

[Nebu]

Didn't we come to this conclusion months ago... and for every MMO that has come out?

Tell me something else on these forums that hasn't been repeated every few months. 

It's a new game and with it comes a sense of renewed optimism.  The optimism is then smashed by cruel reality.  I'm as jaded as they come and I still had some hope.  Silly me.

[Riggswolfe]

As far as I've seen it currently doesn't seem to have any endgame appeal, period.  The only attractive end game activity seems to be making alts to see another class or factions main quest line.

It has 2 raids, a half dozen flashpoints and pvp for end game. I've seen, on my server at least, very active end-game activities which I have reluctantly been drawn into.  I say reluctantly because I fear getting into the raid cycle.

[Wolf]

I also don't really like how the republic itself is portrayed.  I thought it would be all virtuous and united in striving against evil but the quests make plain that it is full of scum and corruption from top to bottom. 

I'm sure you meant to say "wretched hive of scum and villainy" /instantcsi

[01101010]

I also don't really like how the republic itself is portrayed.  I thought it would be all virtuous and united in striving against evil but the quests make plain that it is full of scum and corruption from top to bottom. 

I'm sure you meant to say "wretched hive of scum and villainy" /instantcsi

 

[Lakov_Sanite]

The optimism is then smashed by cruel reality. 

Hi.

[Rasix]

You're such a ray of sunshine.

[Ingmar]

tl;dr: What it all boils down to is this. When I'm sitting at my PC, deciding what game to play, I'd rather log into WoW. I made the same decision regarding Rift, nearly a year ago now. Maybe SWTOR will be a better MMO at some point in the future. I'm sure it's not going anywhere.

This is basically the exact same thing I feel, except the games are backwards. Cancelling WoW tonight after I make one last attempt to get the slowpokes in my WoW guild who haven't tried SWTOR yet to give it a shot.

The worst empire side storyline is superior to the best republic storyline.

 (I've only played each class of theirs up to 16 or so though).

 

EDIT: Also, I have started receiving more Star Wars phishing spam than WoW phishing spam, not sure if that is indicative of any larger trend. Amusingly they are still coming from "Blizzard Entertainment" though.