Predictions: 1m+ players 3 days out; how about in January 2013?

[Soln]

It will be at least 500k if they tune and add more content for the poopsockers.  But to succeed and grow or survive a dip -- like LotRO did -- they need to fill out of the mid-game and retune and enhance the starting levels.  The core market is not us and they need to either go F2P or add MT for cosmetics items and buffs ASAP.  Otherwise, it will die a typical EA death -- over ambitious, over spent, over thought, under played, under critiqued (cf. Spore  WAR).

[Ingmar]

Depends if they manage the subforum more like the WoW one, or more like the Eve one.

[Simond]

It will be at least 500k if they tune and add more content for the poopsockers.  But to succeed and grow or survive a dip -- like LotRO did -- they need to fill out of the mid-game and retune and enhance the starting levels.  The core market is not us and they need to either go F2P or add MT for cosmetics items and buffs ASAP.  Otherwise, it will die a typical EA death -- over ambitious, over spent, over thought, under played, under critiqued (cf. Spore).

I would have used WAR as an example, personally. 

[Cadaverine]

I just avoid any part of the official forums, outside of the Tech Support forum when I need it.  I find that reading them starts to ruin my enjoyment of the game due to all the negativity.

As for the number of subs by Jan 2013?  200 to 300k as I don't see the game being all that sticky.  It largely depends on how when Bioware can get out worthwhile content, while still fixing the issues with the base game.  Given how easy it is to level, I don't see how they'd keep people around that long once they've gone through the regular content a time or two.

[El Gallo]

A year from January i peg them at around 500k, third place behind WoW and Rift.

How many subs does Rift have these days?

[Draegan]

A year from January i peg them at around 500k, third place behind WoW and Rift.

How many subs does Rift have these days?

If I had to guess based on traffic patterns?  150-200k ish.   Thats the low end, high end would be 350k.  Just guessing though.

[Ingmar]

I'd be very surprised if Rift is over 500k now.

[Miasma]

Over a million but F2P.

Oh!  F2P deserves its own seperate dead pool.  I say not a hope in hell.

[Cadaverine]

EA will never let TOR go F2P.  Look at WAR.  They're still trying to hump a few more bucks out of it's desiccated corpse.

[Simond]

EA will never let TOR go F2P.  Look at WAR.

Okay, let's look at WAR
Hell, EA don't even need to go F2P to start; they could just start selling empty orange gear for real cash. Want that authentic Revanchist mask/helm? Yours for only $2!

[sam, an eggplant]

They had more than 800k.

The last announced number was 800k back in november. The vgcharts (which are not entirely reliable) had them at 950k. That's the ballpark.

[Montague]

EA will never let TOR go F2P.  Look at WAR.

Okay, let's look at WAR
Hell, EA don't even need to go F2P to start; they could just start selling empty orange gear for real cash. Want that authentic Revanchist mask/helm? Yours for only $2!

2 bucks? Many of us here paid an extra 20 bucks for a holodancer, a flare gun , and a lawnmower speeder. EA are idiots if they only charge that much.

[Amaron]

Anyone who seriously thinks this will come within a mile of F2P needs to back it up with cash on the line.

[apocrypha]

I think the investment is far too large to make F2P a realistic proposal for now. It's going to have to bomb really badly over the next 12 months for that to happen.

I also think it's far to early to make predictions. It depends so much on how they handle the coming months. They've got a decent foundation of a game that's a lot of fun but which still has too many cock-stabbing mechanisms and rough edges left over from 2006. If they go all hardass "stupid players are doing it wrong" and ignore the glaring problems then it's doomed and will go the way of WAR and will have 300-500k by Jan 2013. If they address the main problems and start really innovating and seriously see themselves as competing with WoW as it is (not WoW as it was) then they've got a chance to stay above 1-1.5m by 2013.

They need a major content patch in 3-4 months time that also has huge improvements to core systems such as AH, LFD, crafting.

[Cyrrex]

EA will never let TOR go F2P.  Look at WAR.

Okay, let's look at WAR
Hell, EA don't even need to go F2P to start; they could just start selling empty orange gear for real cash. Want that authentic Revanchist mask/helm? Yours for only $2!

I would SO buy that mask for two dollars.  Provided it has the slots.  Okay, even without the slots.  I was very unhappy when that quest line finished on DK and the mask was all but forgotten about.  Gimme!

[UnSub]

BioWare has already publicly gone with F2P doesn't let you spend $100m+ on developing a title, so we aren't going to use it here.

I can't see SWOR going F2P in 12 months given how long it took WAR to even look like making the shift.

SWOR will release in some new regions over 2012, but all that voiced content makes localisation a bit harder (and not just because they need to record the dialogue with local voice actors, either).

[Samprimary]

Legitimate question: why do so many people think this is going free to play?

[Reg]

Not many people actually think it's going free to play. Perhaps it looks that way because we're on F13 where the majority hates MMOs and quits en masse before the first month is up.

[Mrbloodworth]

Legitimate question: why do so many people think this is going free to play?

I think its more of a hope.

[March]

I think the investment is far too large to make F2P a realistic proposal for now. It's going to have to bomb really badly over the next 12 months for that to happen.

I also think it's far to early to make predictions. It depends so much on how they handle the coming months. They've got a decent foundation of a game that's a lot of fun but which still has too many cock-stabbing mechanisms and rough edges left over from 2006. If they go all hardass "stupid players are doing it wrong" and ignore the glaring problems then it's doomed and will go the way of WAR and will have 300-500k by Jan 2013. If they address the main problems and start really innovating and seriously see themselves as competing with WoW as it is (not WoW as it was) then they've got a chance to stay above 1-1.5m by 2013.

They need a major content patch in 3-4 months time that also has huge improvements to core systems such as AH, LFD, crafting.

Well put.

I'd add two point that make me think they will fail:
1. End-game forced group content is not the game most people are looking for.  The story driven ride of 1-50 will drive off a cliff if they cannot envision a new (solo) end-game.
2. I suspect that the voice-acting, scripted foozle quests are going to be consumed much faster than they can generate new content... then see #1 above.

I was perfectly happy in RIFT until I hit 50 and had nothing to do, and their solo content turned out to be duo content.  TOR has more stickiness in terms of Companions, Crafting, Story, and Spaceship in the early levels... but I'm wondering if the Fourth Pillar is going to be more like the Fourth Anchor pulling them down to the bottom once the population reaches 50.  If they can continue the 1-50 ride post 50, I'd easily see 1M _and growing_ in 2013; if end-game is jarringly different from 1-50, then I'd predict 350k-500k in 2013 - the game is less alt friendly than either WoW or even RIFT.

[Kail]

Legitimate question: why do so many people think this is going free to play?

Seems to be the direction the market is going.  It's the best of both worlds from a pricing standpoint.  Get customers to pay the $50.00 box fee for a few months, then throw the gates open and try to cover continuing expenses with a F2P/Cash Shop model.  You get the big initial surge of cash, plus the (allegedly fairly high) cash shop money from a massive audience.

I think it's important to remember that it's not really an indictment of the quality of the game, a lot of major MMOs are subscriptionless now, regardless of how well liked they were.  It brings in a lot of customers, keeps the game full, and keeps development going.

That said, I agree that it's too early to say one way or another if that's the direction this title is going.  The deciding factor, I suspect, is going to be the subscription retention: if people level to 50 in a month or two, see the end of their story, and unsub, the servers are going to empty fast and F2P is going to start looking really good.  As an outsider, though, I don't know how widespread that's going to be.

[Paelos]

Legitimate question: why do so many people think this is going free to play?

Because they are being dicks. It's one of those one-off things people like to say when they think a game sucks.

They of course have no basis in economic reality. No game that put this much money in R&D decides to go F2P within a year. You'd never be able to get any ROI from the deal. I'm not saying they won't have a combo of vanity microtrans and sub like WoW, but outright F2P? Please.

[Draegan]

Legitimate question: why do so many people think this is going free to play?

Because they are being dicks. It's one of those one-off things people like to say when they think a game sucks.

They of course have no basis in economic reality. No game that put this much money in R&D decides to go F2P within a year. You'd never be able to get any ROI from the deal. I'm not saying they won't have a combo of vanity microtrans and sub like WoW, but outright F2P? Please.

Pretty much this and most people are stupid.

[Lantyssa]

People are projecting their hopes and expectations onto reality.

I would like it to go f2p, or follow Free Realm's hybrid model, but I know it won't for a good long while, if ever.

[Numtini]

No way will it go free to play. That's just EA's corporate culture.

[rattran]

Can't see LucasArts allowing a f2p transition, EA had to have promised them massive moneyhats.

[Cyrrex]

Maybe this isn't the thread for it, but how many of you plan on playing past the free month?  Or longer?

I signed up for the cyclical 3 month subscription.  No way I am quitting after the first month.  Not only am I as slow as Hutt spit in leveling in the first place (level 28, been playing since day 1 of EA), but I am definitely going to play at least 3 classes all the way through.  And that is just on the Empire side.

[Sjofn]

I planning to play for a while, yeah. A shock, I am sure. 

[Ratman_tf]

Maybe this isn't the thread for it, but how many of you plan on playing past the free month?  Or longer?

I might. I can see this as something to play when I'm burned out on WoW.

[calapine]

Maybe this isn't the thread for it, but how many of you plan on playing past the free month?  Or longer?

I signed up for the cyclical 3 month subscription.  No way I am quitting after the first month.  Not only am I as slow as Hutt spit in leveling in the first place (level 28, been playing since day 1 of EA), but I am definitely going to play at least 3 classes all the way through.  And that is just on the Empire side.

Definitely going to play for a while. A friend and mine are a Smuggler/Sage duo, we play most of the time in-character and try stay at the same level quest wise. The Convo-group system is awesome. So far we having a blast.

I am a bit afraid about what happens at lvl 50 though...

[Montague]

If I could afford the upfront money for two subs I'd do a six month sub plan. Still might next month.

But then that speaks more about our(my wife and I) tastes as gamers than the quality of the game. I would (and have) put up with a lot of bugs, glitches, and placeholder type design for WoW with lightsabers and voiceovers and KOTOR lore. If I wasnt such a fanboy for that stuff I wouldn't be nearly as forgiving.

[Hutch]

In one year, they're not going to catch themselves up to all of the features and innovations that have been introduced in the industry since 2006. I am long past accepting "We'll add that sometime in the future" as anything other than "We had no idea that this missing feature was in any way important to player satisfaction. We'll add it after we see that we're losing subs."

Thus, the only people paying for this in a year, are those who are gluttons for running their 6th or 7th alt through the long empty zones to get to the next story wheel. And/or hate WoW and/or pandas.

I agree that they're not going to go F2P, and are more likely to do Blizzard-style microtrans with cosmetic items.

I predict 500k subscribers a year from now.
However, if those of us who are predicting numbers less than 1 million are right, will we ever find out for sure?

[Cyrrex]

I predict 500k subscribers a year from now.
However, if those of us who are predicting numbers less than 1 million are right, will we ever find out for sure?

If it is significantly under a million (say, your 500k estimate) it will likely be considered a catastrophic failure, and we will certainly know.  They may never release numbers, but I still think we'll know.  By all accounts, they poured a shitton of money into this game.  It's failure wouldn't break EA, but it would create pretty big waves.

[jakonovski]

SWTOR has enough content to satisfy a slowpoke casual like me for a couple of months, which means that everything will hinge on Bioware's ability to put out further quality content, fast. The portents are not good however. All the brouhaha about ridiculous downtimes, useless patches and stupid ban drama indicates that much like Illidan, they are not prepared to actually run a day in day out MMO.

[Merusk]

Maybe this isn't the thread for it, but how many of you plan on playing past the free month?  Or longer?

I signed up for the cyclical 3 month subscription.  No way I am quitting after the first month.  Not only am I as slow as Hutt spit in leveling in the first place (level 28, been playing since day 1 of EA), but I am definitely going to play at least 3 classes all the way through.  And that is just on the Empire side.

I most certainly will be, for similar reasons as you - leveling more than one character.  I'm not slow but I haven't had the time or inclination to get in and devote super-long stretches to leveling.  There's just too much to do and fiddle with right now, so my BH is only 40 even after having the last week off of work.  I'm going slow so as to not burn myself out totally.

However, I don't expect Bat Country to last, so I'll defect over to Republic side and join those SLAP people when it finally collapses and there's only 2 of us on in guild chat.   Thus, I'm running Empire side folks right now while things are hoppin'.