S#5 Playoff picture projection and speculations

[Falconeer]

Did you know that the playoff pairings are the same every Season? This is the Playoff Picture, so we can start speculating on possible matches...




As of I know I would be playing... Carnifex or Ingmar  

[lamaros]

Sweet. Looks like I should be playing Ice Cream or Ramas. Ugh! Better off throwing a few games and playing Ingmar or Carnifex or Comstar!

[Comstar]

Just tell me where I am to come to avoid playing dwarves. 4th?

[Ice Cream Emperor]

Well I'm glad someone is optimistic about my chances of making the playoffs.

[IainC]

So if I manage to make 4th then my 'reward' is getting to play the Ex-Presidents...

It doesn't get any better if I somehow steal 3rd, I'd likely be playing Alive Not Dead in that case.

Aiming for the Loserbowl is looking more attractive all the time.

[Falconeer]

The Loser Bowl is more chances to get SPPs (which, eventually, are supposed to be used to try to get to the playoffs next year), but more chances to have your players killed too. That happened a lot in last season's Failoffs.

Eventually, I feel that aiming up is still the point of my team, no matter how much I lose, I like to look back at a team history and see achievements and failures, and the best results are what really matters.

I mean, we are not disagreeing, I don't think, just saying that while I  don't feel I'll ever win a League, getting as deep in the playoff as I can is still my number #1 goal every Season.

[Paelos]

I plan on being the worst team in the loserbowl!

[luckton]

I plan on being the worst team in the loserbowl!

Impossible.  You cannot be weaker than 'flings.

[Strazos]

Oh man, I feel for whoever gets stuck in Twilight 2000 slot 4.

HOWEVER - they might get a gift in the form of a bye to the second round if I still don't have stuff up and running by the time playoffs roll around. 

[HaemishM]

So if I somehow managed 4th place and a spot in the playoffs, I get to play fucking DWARVES?

[Ruvaldt]

So if I manage to make 4th then my 'reward' is getting to play the Ex-Presidents...

Millard Fillmore only wants hugs.  There is nothing to fear.

[Ingmar]

Sweet. Looks like I should be playing Ice Cream or Ramas. Ugh! Better off throwing a few games and playing Ingmar or Carnifex or Comstar!

That's going up in our locker room, sir.

[Sjofn]

Am I a dark horse in the playoff picture yet?

[lamaros]

I think you have to be outside the top four to be a dark horse. You're just a horse.

[Sjofn]

No one ever mentions me, though! 

[luckton]

No one ever mentions me, though! 

Join the club 

[IainC]

With three match days to go and 9 points up for grabs some players have already effectively cemented their place.

Division 1:
Comstar is currently on 7 points - is yet to play: Sjofn, Paelos, Celer. Will probably take 9 points from those games leaving him on 16. Needs to not lose vs both Sjofn and Celer.
Ingmar is urrently on 8 points - is yet to play: Proudft, Celer and Carnifex. Will probably take 7 points from those games leaving him on 15. Needs to not lose vs both Proudft and Carnifex.
Carnifex is currently on 8 points - is yet to play: Me, Proudft, Ingmar. Will probably take 5 points from those games leaving him on 13. Needs to beat Proudft and not lose vs me and Ingmar
I am currently on 5 points - am yet to play: Carnifex, Sjofn, Paelos. Will probably take 7 points from those games leaving me on 12. Need to beat Sjofn and at least draw vs Carnifex.
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Sjofn is currently on 7 points - is yet to play: Comstar, Me, Proudft. Will probably take 4 points from those games leaving her on 11. Needs to beat me and at least draw with Comstar.
Proudft is currently on 4 points - is yet to play: Ingmar, Carnifex, Sjofn. Will probably take 4 points from those games leaving him on 8. Needs to beat Sjofn and win one and draw one of his remaining matches.
Celer is currently on 4 points - is yet to play: Paelos, Ingmar, Comstar. Will probably take 3 points from those games leaving him on 7. Needs a win and a draw vs Comstar and Ingmar.
Paelos is currently on 0 points - is yet to play: Celer, Comstar, Me. Is unlikely to take any points from those games leaving him on 0. Cannot make the playoff even if he wins all his remaining matches.

Critical games are:
Me vs Sjofn - winner is likely to take the 4th spot.
Sjofn vs Comstar - If Sjofn wins this she practically guarantees herself a playoff spot regardless of the result vs me.
Proudft vs Carnifex. Carnifex needs two wins and a draw to stay in the race.

Division 2:
AndyDavo is currently on 10 points - is yet to play: Luckton, Reborne, Falconeer. Will probably take 9 points from those games leaving him on 19. Will be through even if he loses to Falconeer.
Lamaros is currently on 10 points - is yet to play: Reborne, Megrim, Avaia. Will probably take 9 points from those games leaving him on 19. Needs at least one point to guarantee a playoff spot.
Falconeer is currently on 9 points - is yet to play: Megrim, Haemish, AndyDavo. Will probably take 6 points from those games leaving him on 15. Needs at least 2 points from Megrim and Haemish
Megrim is currently on 6 points - is yet to play: Falconeer, Lamaros, Haemish. Will probably take 3 points from those games leaving him on 9. Needs to beat Haemish and score a draw vs either Lamaros or Falconeer.
Haemish is currently on 6 points - is yet to play: Avaia, Falconeer, Megrim. Will probably take 3 points from those games leaving him on 9. Needs to beat either Megrim or Avaia and draw vs the other one.
Avaia is currently on 6 points - is yet to play: Haemish, Luckton, Lamaros. Will probably take 3 points from those games leaving him on 9. Needs to beat Haemish.
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Reborne is currently on 0 points - is yet to play: Lamaros, AndyDavo, Luckton. Will probably take 3 points from those games leaving him on 3. Cant make the playoffs even if he wins all his remaining games.
Luckton is currently on 0 points - is yet to play: AndyDavo, Avaia, Reborne. Will probably not take any points from those games leaving him on 0. Cant make the playoffs even if he wins all his remaining games.

Critical games:
Megrim vs Haemish. Three coaches fighting over the fourth spot. First to blink loses.
Avaia vs Haemish.

Division 3:
Teleku is currently on 9 points - is yet to play: Strazos, ICE, Krummi. Is likely to take 7 points from those games leaving him on 16. Needs at least two points from the games vs ICE and Krummi.
ICE is currently on 7 points - is yet to play: Krummi, Teleku, Ginaz. Is likely to take 7 points from those games leaving him on 14. Needs at least two points from the games vs Ginaz and Krummi.
Ramas is currently on 6 points - is yet to play: Ginaz, Ulysees, Kailas. Is likely to take 7 points from those games leaving him on 13. Needs at least one win and no losses.
Strazos is currently on 12 points - is yet to play: Teleku, Ginaz, Ulysees. Is unlikely to play any of his remaining games so will end the season on 12 points. is through unless Ulysees or Krummi win all of their games.
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Ulysees is currently on 4 points - is yet to play: Kailas, Ramas, Strazos. Is likely to take 6 points from those games leaving him on 10. Needs to beat Ramas.
Krummi is currently on 6 points - is yet to play: ICE, Kailas, Teleku. Is likely to take 3 points from those games leaving him on 9. Needs to beat either ICE or Teleku and win the tie vs Strazos.
Ginaz is currently on 1 point - is yet to play: Ramas, Strazos, ICE. Is likely to take 3 points from those games leaving him on 3. Needs to beat both ICE and Ramas and win the tie vs Strazos.
Kailas is currently on 1 point - is yet to play: Ulysees, Krummi, Ramas. Is not likely to take any points from those games leaving him on 1. Cannot make the playoffs even if he wins all his remaining games.

Critical matches:
Ramas vs Ulysees. Ulysees needs to win, Ramas needs a draw.
Teleku vs ICE. Winner will top the division.

Division 4:
Ruvaldt is currently on 12 points - is yet to play: Ezrast, SirT, Drogg. Is likely to take 7 points from those games leaving him on 19. Is pretty much through. Not losing vs Drogg will guarantee a top of division finish.
Bann is currently on 7 points - is yet to play: SirT, Drogg, Catfud. Is likely to take 9 points from those games leaving him on 16. Needs at least one point from the games vs Drogg and Catfud to be safe.
Catfud is currently on 9 points - is yet to play: Cancklebiter, Brocktoon, Bann. Is likely to take 6 points from those games leaving him on 15. One win will put him out of danger.
Drogg is currently on 7 points - is yet to play: Brocktoon, Bann, Ruvaldt. Is likely to take 4 points from those games leaving him on 11. A win vs either Bann or Ruvaldt or a draw in both matches will make his playoff place safe enough.
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Cancklebiter is currently on 3 points - is yet to play: Catfud, Ezrast, Brocktoon. Is likely to take 6 points from those games leaving him on 9. Needs to beat Brocktoon and Ezrast and needs Drogg to lose all his games.
SirT is currently on 4 points - is yet to play: Bann, Ruvaldt, Ezrast. Is likely to take 1 point from those games laving him on 5. Needs to beat Ezrast and either Bann or Ruvaldt.
Brocktoon is currently on 2 points - is yet to play: Drogg, Catfud, Cancklebiter. Is not likely to take any points from those games leaving him on 2. Needs to win all of his games and for Cancklebiter to lose all of his.
Ezrast is currently on 1 point - is yet to play: Ruvaldt, Cancklebiter, SirT. Is likely to take 1 point from those games leaving him on 2. Cannot make the playoffs even if he wins all his remaining games.

Critical matches:
Cancklebiter vs Brocktoon. Cancklebiter needs to win this one to stay in the playoff lane.
Cancklebiter vs Ezrast. Should be an easy match but if it goes wrong then Cancklebiter is out.
Drogg vs Bann. A win for Drogg will keep him in contention.

[lamaros]

Pretty good summary, though I think Drogg and Llyse could both beat Bann.

Drogg has really be hurt by the inability to get his game in against SirT.

[Strazos]

EDIT: Bah, stupid.

[Sjofn]

I have a pretty good shot at the playoffs now with my win over IainC, I think? Because I totally want to rematch against the Ex-Presidents.


(I don't ... really want to rematch against the Ex-Presidents.)

[Celer]

I have a pretty good shot at the playoffs now with my win over IainC, I think?

Our division is  !

Carnifex: 11, +7 (*still to play proudft)
Ingmar: 11, +5
Comstar: 11, +2
Sjofn: 10, +1
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Celer: 10, +2
proudft: 4, -4 (*still to play Carnifex)
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IainC: 5
Paelos: 1

So proudft needs a victory against Carnifex this week to remain in the hunt.  It's worth noting that Carnifex only clinches a spot with a win, not a tie.  NOBODY has clinched a spot yet, even one of Carnifex/Ingmar/Comstar could wind up in the Failoffs!

The tiebreakers this year are Head to Head, then TD Difference, then TD For.  We didn't specify what happens in a 3-way tie, but I'd expect any 3-way tie to ignore H2H and start with TD Diff (that is up to Falc in the end).

Day 7 is:
Ingmar vs Carnifex
Comstar vs Celer
proudft vs Sjofn
IainC vs Paelos

There are way too many options here for my primitive caveman mind to map out.  For 5 teams, it's "win and you're in", but most of them can also tie/lose and still make it in with some help.  Some notes:

• The winner of Ingmar/Carnifex is in, but the loser can still make it in if he's lucky.  A tie guarantees nothing either way (though Carnifex would have the tiebreaker, so I guess he's pretty safe there).
• If Comstar wins or ties, he's in; a loss and he can still take the 4th spot with a Sjofn loss.
• If proudft wins this week and beats Sjofn, the best he can do is end up in a 3-way tie with Celer and Sjofn for the fourth spot.  He would need to make up at least a 5 TD diff (over 2 games) to win that tiebreaker.
• If Sjofn wins, she is in (as she has the tiebreaker over Celer).  If she loses, she needs a Celer loss (and no proudft 3-way tie scenario) to make it in.  A tie guarantees nothing.
• If Celer wins, he is in (as he'd be ahead of Carnifex and/or Ingmar).  A loss and he's out (barring the 3-way proudft tie scenario).  A tie guarantees nothing.

[Falconeer]

This is no doubt the most complicated and exciting Division we've ever had so far. That's definitely an achievement. I wish I could bet real money on this, seriously.

[Sjofn]

I'm sure all the failoffs people are hoping it's me that ultimately fails. 

[Ruvaldt]

For some extra motivation: the lucky winner of the fourth spot gets to face Fillmore/Truman and the rest of the Presidents.  Whether that is motivation to win or to lose is up to you!

[Llyse]

For some extra motivation: the lucky winner of the fourth spot gets to face Fillmore/Truman and the rest of the Presidents.  Whether that is motivation to win or to lose is up to you!

I nominate Ingmar to fight you for title of the biggest baddest bashiest team in the league 

[Ingmar]

Unfortunately I don't have access to claw... until they add Chaos Dwarves as rumored in 2012. 

[Megrim]

Personally, I'm awaiting the bloodsplosion, and the inevitable tears which'll fountain out once one (or hopefully both) bash teams annihilate one another.

[Ruvaldt]

Ingmar is my kryptonite lately.  Our first couple of meetings were victories for me, but I've had a string of losses against him beginning with those damned Khemri in the D&M tourney and final.  If it's between us I'm sure a lot of fur and beards would fly.

[Ingmar]

I don't think there would be tears! Blood/ichor for sure, but I don't think either of us are inclined to be complainers. I am pretty sure I would be at a disadvantage in that match, developed Chaos (or Nurgle I guess) is about the worst matchup there is for dwarves really.

The one I'd like another shot at is Andy, our match last playoffs was very close.

[Ruvaldt]

Yeah, no tears from me.  All is fair in love and Blood Bowl.

If the Presidents were destroyed I'd still be able to look back on two pretty amazing seasons, and possibly a perfect regular season if I can manage to beat Drogg.  That's enough for me; anything else is gravy.  I imagine Ingmar feels the same about Beardstorm.  I would still do my best to have Millard Fillmore drink blood from Beardstorms' skulls though.

Ditto on the Andydavo thing.  My match wasn't as close, but I've gotten better since then and so has my team.

[avaia]

Ichorrrrrrrr.

[AndyDavo]

My teams gotten a wee bit better too...

Actually to the point i'd possibly like to keep them next season. For just one more season. Then I think i'll reroll to Amazons/Vampires/Goblins/Khemri/Chaos/Nurgle/Pro Elves. Or maybe flings, just for comical value! It would all depend on if swappign teams barred my team from ever coming back, I'm getting quite attached to my new bunch of elves...

[carnifex27]

My understanding of the rules is your team can come back, so long as you don't play it in a non-f13 league.  You can go to matchmaking, but you will have to make the TV 1300 cut off to bring them back if you do.

[lamaros]

My understanding of the rules is your team can come back, so long as you don't play it in a non-f13 league.  You can go to matchmaking, but you will have to make the TV 1300 cut off to bring them back if you do.

Your team can come back if you don't play any games at all.

If you do play games they must be in the feeder league, and then they must be 1300 tv I think.

[avaia]

Megrim is now eliminated from the playoffs in our division, Haemish needs a win in the final match to force the tie-breakers, assuming I lose to Lamaros and his slippery rats.