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Topic: NCSoft Reports Quarterly Results; CoH Subscribers Down (Read 42420 times)
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SirBruce
Terracotta Army
Posts: 2551
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NCSoft just reported their financial results and they were well below analyst forecasts. The biggest reason was lower than expected royalties from Taiwan due to fewer NCSoft players, as well as continued financial losses at their US and European subsidiaries. I'm sure now there will be more pressure than ever to get games like Auto Assault and Tabula Rasa out sooner rather than later.
The figures below are for December compared to September:
Lineage I "Monthly Access" - 2,085,385 down from 2,366,798
Lineage II "Monthly Access" - 2,065,187 up from 1,516,632 (This is entirely due to launch in China. Without China's numbers, they'd be down to 1,413,535.)
City of Heroes - 124,435 down from 163,053
Bruce
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shiznitz
Terracotta Army
Posts: 4268
the plural of mangina
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Man, someone should put this shit in chart form.
I kid.
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I have never played WoW.
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HaemishM
Staff Emeritus
Posts: 42666
the Confederate flag underneath the stone in my class ring
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Don't be a tool. It was funny, but really, please?
Also, 124k is still a respectable number for CoH, IMO. That's 124k AFTER the 6-month period AND during the release of EQ2 and WoW.
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HaemishM
Staff Emeritus
Posts: 42666
the Confederate flag underneath the stone in my class ring
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Don't forget that COH's numbers will probably do a nice jump when they release the PVP arenas patch (issue 4 around March) as well as CoV.
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stray
Terracotta Army
Posts: 16818
has an iMac.
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There are many people still considering or waiting to get a copy of WoW. Those numbers will drop a bit more, I think.
BTW: What did Daoc lose?
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Mesozoic
Terracotta Army
Posts: 1359
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City of Heroes - 124,435 down from 163,053
A 24% drop is harsh, especially if it includes all of the holiday purchases. But shit, if thats the combined effect of WoW and EQ2 coming out I'd say they're doing OK. Lets not forget that a certain percentage of any game's base is really just waiting for the Next Big Thing, and WoW/EQ2 probably took just about all of them right out.
And it still leaves over 11,000 players per live server, assuming that buff and dual accounts are minimal. (I've never seen any evidence of CoH buffbots anywhere personally.) I saw AP instances on Liberty the other night, and there still seem to be plenty of players about.
I would love to see what the numbers look like after Issue 4 with its PvP.
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...any religion that rejects coffee worships a false god. -Numtini
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Sky
Terracotta Army
Posts: 32117
I love my TV an' hug my TV an' call it 'George'.
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Next weekend that number increments up one. Too busy with the superbowl crap this weekend. But Cosmo flies again!
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Big Gulp
Terracotta Army
Posts: 3275
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Next weekend that number increments up one. Too busy with the superbowl crap this weekend. But Cosmo flies again! Anyone who's on Freedom has an open invite for some powerlevel lovin'
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SirBruce
Terracotta Army
Posts: 2551
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Mythic has been unwilling to release any new numbers yet for DAoC, but since the concurrent peak users has dropped by at least 30%, a corresponding drop in subscribers will put you in the right ballpark.
Bruce
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Trippy
Administrator
Posts: 23657
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City of Heroes - 124,435 down from 163,053
A 24% drop is harsh, especially if it includes all of the holiday purchases. But shit, if thats the combined effect of WoW and EQ2 coming out I'd say they're doing OK. Lets not forget that a certain percentage of any game's base is really just waiting for the Next Big Thing, and WoW/EQ2 probably took just about all of them right out. You have to remember, though, that an account is still active once you cancel the billing since they use a "pay in advance" subscription model so those numbers presumably don't reflect people, like myeslf, who cancelled their accounts in December after their December rebilling dates and therefore had active accounts into January. Edit: fixed typos
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Riggswolfe
Terracotta Army
Posts: 8046
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Mythic has been unwilling to release any new numbers yet for DAoC, but since the concurrent peak users has dropped by at least 30%, a corresponding drop in subscribers will put you in the right ballpark.
Bruce I have a friend who plays DAOC who swears on his mother's soul that alot of DAOC players who left for WoW and EQ2 have come back to the game. Of course, this guy hardly ever talks to his mother so take it for what it's worth. I personally think he's deluding himself.
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"We live in a country, where John Lennon takes six bullets in the chest, Yoko Ono was standing right next to him and not one fucking bullet! Explain that to me! Explain that to me, God! Explain it to me, God!" - Denis Leary summing up my feelings about the nature of the universe.
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HRose
I'm Special
Posts: 1205
VIKLAS!
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Mythic has been unwilling to release any new numbers yet for DAoC, but since the concurrent peak users has dropped by at least 30%, a corresponding drop in subscribers will put you in the right ballpark. My esteem was 20% and still is from my own noob charts.
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SirBruce
Terracotta Army
Posts: 2551
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Well, you can see the dropoff in concurrency numbers is on the order of 30% - 33% here: http://daoc.darkzone.net/graphs/index.php?server=us-serversBut it's really not fair to assume that everyone who left to play EQ2 or WoW -- which they obviously did -- actually unsubscribed to DAoC. And I'm sure some people did go and try WoW and then decided to go back to DAoC. So actual sub numbers could have dropped much less... at least 20%, maybe 25%, but not necessarily a full 33%. Bruce
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AlteredOne
Terracotta Army
Posts: 357
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As far as I know, none of the latest generation of MMO games reveals their concurrent user numbers. Is DAOC a dying breed in that regard? With all of their problems keeping subscribers, I wouldn't be surprised if they end up going with the "Low - Medium - High" listings per server.
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Abel
Terracotta Army
Posts: 94
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From the European perspective :
The European DAoC servers have lost about 1/3 of their population too and WoW isn't even out here yet (though it is in final beta), neither has EQ2 drawn significant numbers. Don't forget that the European servers account for like 40 % of the DAoC population.
DAoCs decline isn't just due too tougher competition (read : EQ2/WoW), but also simply because the game is over it's peak. The decline also set in well before the advent of WoW or EQ2. Hence those mystical droves of ppl who returned quickly from WoW are not going to save the numbers.
Lastly the declining CoH numbers don't surprise me. Reception in Europe has been a bit lacklustre and the imminent European release of CoH aren't going to add many subscribers. In comparison, Blizzard have already racked up 110.000 preorders for WoW in Europe. With the Korean release expect WoW to get twice as big as it already is.
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SirBruce
Terracotta Army
Posts: 2551
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As far as I know, none of the latest generation of MMO games reveals their concurrent user numbers. Is DAOC a dying breed in that regard? With all of their problems keeping subscribers, I wouldn't be surprised if they end up going with the "Low - Medium - High" listings per server. AC1 and AC2 did, or at least they used to, but both sites I know what were tracking them have stopped. I don't know if Lineage 2 does, but NCSoft is pretty open about all of their numbers in ther financials even if they don't show them to their players in-game. Killer from CRS recently released a chart showing the number of concurrent users playing WWIIOL over time, but again, this isn't something that is shown at login or in-game. Bruce
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SirBruce
Terracotta Army
Posts: 2551
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DAoCs decline isn't just due too tougher competition (read : EQ2/WoW), but also simply because the game is over it's peak. The decline also set in well before the advent of WoW or EQ2. Hence those mystical droves of ppl who returned quickly from WoW are not going to save the numbers.
Unfortunately, the concurrent user numbers don't support that assertion, either: http://daoc.darkzone.net/graphs/index.php?server=eu-serversClearly EQ2 and WoW had an impact. Perhaps people were getting bored with the game before then, but ... Lastly the declining CoH numbers don't surprise me. Reception in Europe has been a bit lacklustre and the imminent European release of CoH aren't going to add many subscribers.
I don't think they are expected gangbuster numbers, but I'm sure they would like to stop the bleeding and try to regarin even 20,000 or so users. It's interesting that the impact of EQ2/WoW on Ultima Online has been minimal... I guess everyone who wanted to leave already did so last year. Bruce
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kaid
Terracotta Army
Posts: 3113
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I myself let my subscription slip to coh but its not because I dont like the game its because I have no freaking time to play all the games I like. I fully intend to resub once the city of villians thing comes out and the super secret non combat stuff comes out.
Kaid
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Ironwood
Terracotta Army
Posts: 28240
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It's interesting that the impact of EQ2/WoW on Ultima Online has been minimal... I guess everyone who wanted to leave already did so last year. Surely that's entirely as expected ? Those who are still there are obviously uncaring about the shiney and have stated their preference time and time again. It's not like it's not an OLD game.
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"Mr Soft Owl has Seen Some Shit." - Sun Tzu
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Daeven
Terracotta Army
Posts: 1210
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RE: CoH loosing subscribers. It's to bad. CoH really is the better game when compared with either WoW or EQ2.
I may be in the minority, but I *LIKE* summoning hurricanes and tornadoes.
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"There is a technical term for someone who confuses the opinions of a character in a book with those of the author. That term is idiot." -SMStirling
It is by caffeine alone I set my mind in motion. It is by the beans of Java that thoughts acquire speed, the hands acquire shakes, the shakes become a warning. It is by caffeine alone I set my mind in motion
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Mesozoic
Terracotta Army
Posts: 1359
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How much do these numbers really matter anymore?
We've seen that games like EVE, SB, and AC2 can manage to be profitable despite embarrassingly low sub counts. We know that devs can and will merge servers when numbers go down to keep server populations up.
So lets say that CoH (or any game) just absolutely shits itself. They drop to 30,000 subs. They merge servers, layoff some CSRs, sell some hardware.
Server pops stabilize on the shorter server list. At worst maybe you have to change your character's name.
What am I missing?
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...any religion that rejects coffee worships a false god. -Numtini
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Dren
Terracotta Army
Posts: 2419
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RE: CoH loosing subscribers. It's to bad. CoH really is the better game when compared with either WoW or EQ2. CoH does a part of the other "more complete" games very very well. However, as predicted it doesn't have staying power. I grew tired of it after a month. WoW has me for at least a total of 4-5 months even through some of its shortfallings. Their PvP will interest me, but I will be too busy with WoW and Guildwars PvP to really care enough to actually resub.
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jpark
Terracotta Army
Posts: 1538
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RE: CoH loosing subscribers. It's to bad. CoH really is the better game when compared with either WoW or EQ2. CoH does a part of the other "more complete" games very very well. However, as predicted it doesn't have staying power. I grew tired of it after a month. WoW has me for at least a total of 4-5 months even through some of its shortfallings. Their PvP will interest me, but I will be too busy with WoW and Guildwars PvP to really care enough to actually resub. I think the staying power you refer to means an economy and stronger reasons to group...
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"I think my brain just shoved its head up its own ass in retaliation. " HaemishM.
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eldaec
Terracotta Army
Posts: 11844
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In related news (and also noted on the CoH forum here). EU CoH launches today, so expect a sharp rise in subs.
Also noted in the CoH forum is the fucking stupid nature of the server segregation arrangements.
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"People will not assume that what they read on the internet is trustworthy or that it carries any particular assurance or accuracy" - Lord Leveson "Hyperbole is a cancer" - Lakov Sanite
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HaemishM
Staff Emeritus
Posts: 42666
the Confederate flag underneath the stone in my class ring
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Ok, wait.... how the fuck is 124k subscribers for COH bad? How is it "bleeding?" I'm not getting it here.
Chances are they can probably be profitable with as little as 50k subs, and as much as 100k subs. From all NCSoft has said, they peaked at about 160k or so subs. Sure, it is a 30% drop from the last quarter. But it's a 6-month old game, in a market where 6-months can be all or nothing. I'm sure that WWII Online, Horizons, Neocron, or Shadowbane would be tickled fucking pink with 124k subscribers, or even half that? Are we so myopic in our view that we think there has to be a "one true game" that dominates the market still? We're past that. We now have a 600k game in WoW, a 300-400k game in EQ, a 200-300k game in SWG, a 200k game in DAoC, and CoH sits pretty comfortably below that. Did anyone expect CoH to get 200k subs when it was released? Hell, did anyone expect 100k?
I don't see these as bad numbers, especially not for NCSoft. Look at NCSoft's current lineup. It's VERY Asian-centric. Last I heard, Lineage 2 bombed in the US, topping at maybe 60k subscribers, while doing gangbusters in Asia. So they have no real successes in the North American market... except CoH, which does respectable numbers in a crowded MMOG market.
I'm not seeing the reason this is such bad news for CoH.
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Dren
Terracotta Army
Posts: 2419
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I think the staying power you refer to means an economy and stronger reasons to group... That and crafting, items of any kind, versatility and quantity of races/classes, larger world, versatility/quantity of powers, etc. I saw what the game was like or ever going to be like after a month of play. After that it was just having numbers increase and killing more non-human-players. Badges and different colored tights won't keep my sub.
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eldaec
Terracotta Army
Posts: 11844
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CoH doesn't need economy/crafting per se, but it does need, alternative advancement tracks. The out of combat skill system may help with that in i5. I think the staying power you refer to means an economy and stronger reasons to group... Don't disagree, but there is plenty of hard content that requires groups. The only reason people don't use at low levels is that the low xp curve mean people can make progress witout groups. You can't do that at high levels. I'm not seeing the reason this is such bad news for CoH. That's easy - the reason it is presented as bad news is that the original poster *always* posts CoH stuff as bad news. Of course, if we eliminiated all the posts on this board that include excessive spin applied in order to make the facts fit the posters own world view, we wouldn't have much left.
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"People will not assume that what they read on the internet is trustworthy or that it carries any particular assurance or accuracy" - Lord Leveson "Hyperbole is a cancer" - Lakov Sanite
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Mesozoic
Terracotta Army
Posts: 1359
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I'm not sure if anyone's noticed, but realistic economies are not exactly the forte of CoH's source material. Heroes are either so shit-rich that they get whatever they want (Iron Man, Batman, etc.), technically dirt poor in ways that don't matter to their crimefighting (Spider-man, Superman) or just financially androgenous.
I don't want a superhero game where mutants in tights hawk plasma pistols on street corners for influence.
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...any religion that rejects coffee worships a false god. -Numtini
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Pineapple
Terracotta Army
Posts: 239
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I think the staying power you refer to means an economy and stronger reasons to group...
Not only that. CoH has certain weaknesses that the newest example of MMOG does better. CoH missions get repetitive. Sure they follow a storyline, but the delivery of that is bland. The mission NPCs are so bland and uninteresting. Flavor it up a bit. Delivery and variety are important here. Give me more variety in my city and hunting areas. Up to about level 24, all I ever see are modern urban areas. I dont just want Steel Canyon, I want the city in 5th Element. The newer zone Hollows just ended up being a wrecked version of Kings Row - boring. EQ has a wide variety of Planes, and so do comics. I want that too. I want to visit alien worlds. You have the vast expanse of a comic book multiverse, so give me more variety. Maybe it gets much better as I level up, but the low levels didnt have enough variety to satisfy me. Only missions provided a change from the typical urban streets. CoH has a lot of strengths that are good for about 1 to 3 months. Then people feel they want more, or something else. The next plateau, perhaps. I say all this with love for the game. I think it has many great aspects. It also feels great to fly around.
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jpark
Terracotta Army
Posts: 1538
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I'm not seeing the reason this is such bad news for CoH. It may be that this is really more of a compliment. Comparing the Quality of CoH to EQ2 and potentially WoW - one might expect higher numbers because many of use "feel" it is a better game. As mentioned above - the EU servers are going up now - that is going to hit the sub numbers pretty good. And as also mentioned - Issue 4 and CoV are going to turn things around more so I bet.
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"I think my brain just shoved its head up its own ass in retaliation. " HaemishM.
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Pineapple
Terracotta Army
Posts: 239
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Badges and different colored tights won't keep my sub.
Very well said. The badges held no real interest for me. Getting a new costume set was cool, but I can change my appearance in other games much more often. It is also a constant source of achievement in other games, to continually update my appearance. I like finding that sword or staff with the glowing red particles coming out of it. I like items that I can wear in public.
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AcidCat
Terracotta Army
Posts: 919
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CoH has a lot of strengths that are good for about 1 to 3 months. Then people feel they want more, or something else. The next plateau, perhaps. I say all this with love for the game. I think it has many great aspects. It also feels great to fly around.
Have to agree here. There is a lot to like in CoH, no doubt. But I quit after about 3 months because the game just started feeling too repetitive/grindy. Also I really love exploring and CoH just needs more variety in the environments. And I guess at the end of the day I want loot too.
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HaemishM
Staff Emeritus
Posts: 42666
the Confederate flag underneath the stone in my class ring
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CoH missions get repetitive. Sure they follow a storyline, but the delivery of that is bland. The mission NPCs are so bland and uninteresting. Flavor it up a bit. Delivery and variety are important here. They are starting to get that, with a good bit of little changes in instanced missions. Things like trap doors, being captured if you die on the mission, some new environments, etc. The base is good, but yes, at release, it lacked variety. The fact they are dropping in at least 1 new zone per issue shows they know this, and are trying to remedy it. It goes back to that old not enough content for all players thing. I can guarantee that if you came back in 3 months (after issue 4), it would be a substantially different game; which I suppose is what you want in an MMOG, or at the least, the best you can expect.
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Daeven
Terracotta Army
Posts: 1210
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That and crafting, items of any kind, versatility and quantity of races/classes, larger world, versatility/quantity of powers, etc.
I saw what the game was like or ever going to be like after a month of play. After that it was just having numbers increase and killing more non-human-players.
Badges and different colored tights won't keep my sub. I'm sorry but that has got to be one of the silliest things I've read on this site. To say Tanker's gameplay experience replicates a Controllers gameplay experience is nonsence. And Crafting? Has anyone implemented 'crafting' in such a way it did't drain your will to live?
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"There is a technical term for someone who confuses the opinions of a character in a book with those of the author. That term is idiot." -SMStirling
It is by caffeine alone I set my mind in motion. It is by the beans of Java that thoughts acquire speed, the hands acquire shakes, the shakes become a warning. It is by caffeine alone I set my mind in motion
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Nebu
Terracotta Army
Posts: 17613
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First, I'm glad to see that NCSoft has maintained at least 100k subs. It's a good game. They dared to try something different at a time when other houses were sticking with a safe formula. Combine that with their rate of content additions and fixes and they deserve nothing but respect. Though I didn't stay with the game myself, I do see this title as a catalyst for getting the genre out of its current rut.
DAoC: Since I'm one of the 3 people that still plays the game, I'll say that 30-33% drop in subscriptions seems reasonable. I think that server clustering combined with some of the issues with WoW will bring a few people back, but they won't stay long (wrote about this on another thread).
What interests me would be the profit per subscriber for each of the active titles with over 100k subscriptions. If companies could develop profitable niche games (i.e. higher than average profit/subscriber), then we may expect more titles like these in the future. It seems that the dilution of games to create mass appeal is one of the factors killing mmog's for me.
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"Always do what is right. It will gratify half of mankind and astound the other."
- Mark Twain
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