Anonymous Mythic employee dishes dirt on WAR and SWTOR

[Sir T]

It strikes me that, by this standard, every single MMO aside from WOW is a colossal failure. And Yes Eve has made money but only because the company that now runs it never had to pay for its development costs. Otherwise it almost certainly would be a failure too.

So one is a mutant and the other is a unique case. Frankly, looking at the market there is no way I'd even consider making an MMO. The Free to play model seems to be the only one that works these days aside from "Being Blizzard"

[patience]

You're forgetting or disregarding Asian MMOs like Lineage. Even ignoring that Runescape would also have to be considered a success for being a low budget game that managed to thrive to very large heights with a hybrid F2P+Subscription model, which is an even more important case study of how to manage your game development on a shoestring.

[Sir T]

Good point. I guess my brain was concentrating on the western hemisphere too much.

[UnSub]

Eve was indeed saved by a management buyout but I don't think that was the question Sinij intended. (And I'm sure you know that, you sly dog).

Yeah, I know. 

The truth is that yes, money can buy its way out of some trouble - you can throw enough cash at resources and get enough right to succeed (but that isn't guaranteed).

But cash is also distracting and an anchor - I wonder if BioWare has succumbed to thinking an open chequebook means they can finally do all the things they want to but not consider that they'll have to pay all that money back, plus interest. 

[Modern Angel]

They're not failures, though. If you manage your money properly and don't act like idiots you can be wildly successful on comparatively few subscribers. The problem is that first part: nobody manages their money worth two shits in the industry. Keep your costs low, don't goof off for the first three years of your five year dev cycle, hire competent people, don't treat them like shit so your mid-level coders and designers don't bolt... standard expectations for any place but the video game industry.

[Soulflame]

It's only a failure if the project fails to recoup the original investment, or if the live MMO operates at a loss.

I'm guessing the problem with this is that investors aren't interested in 300k subscribers, particularly when WoW just reported 12,000k subscribers.

[Modern Angel]

Right. The real problem is that and that's also the real problem with the KOTOR budget, whether it's 100mil or 300mil. Most smaller studio MMOs have been unmitigated disasters by any measure. What's happening here, though, is that pretty soon they won't even have a chance to fail as they're priced out. 100mil being the new 50mil is not cool.

[Ghambit]

I'm willing to bet that 300million figure isnt the actual cost of the game itself, but the overall cost including the various ownership changes, middleman payouts, severences, etc.  I mean, how many golden parachutes are we up to now between Mythic, Pandemic, EA, and Bioware??  And Bono's group sold their rights to EA yes?  At 100% profit I might add...  which happens to be about 300 million dollars (not including stock options).  uhhh, hmmm... well maybe this game actually costed more than 300 million.   

So, we're up over a billion now EA has leveraged on these games/studios???  Someone remind me which Universe I'm in, 'cause for a second it felt like some sick alternate manifold.

[UnSub]

WoW allegedly makes about $840m a year out of the NA / EU markets. That's the context that EA is thinking about SWOR in.

[Dark_MadMax]

WoW allegedly makes about $840m a year out of the NA / EU markets. That's the context that EA is thinking about SWOR in.

And frankly its kind of not unrealistic to expect that kind of income of 10 mill subscribers. Servers cost peanuts compared to sub fees. Its almost all pure profit.

What is not realistic however is expecting to have 10 mill subs just by having voice overs and dubious quality gameplay to trump over the already established MMO. Its a lot harder to make MMO players switch their main sub game. WoW is such a big success because it was first MMO for many , while at the same time being very high quality one ( EQ2  for example is a shitty game and it would never hit wow numbers even if wow didnt exist). Trumping that in terms of  sub numbers is neigh impossible imho.  You can have a bigger f2p game , or  farmville,  but you wont have it with WoW in space wtih voice overs and star wars skins


p.s. And as many said voice overs looks more of  a liability than an asset .Think about localization for instance. WoW is huge in Asia. By having tons invested in English voice overs you just shot yourself in the foot with expanding in the emerging markets.

[Reg]

Damn those arrogant Bioware devs with their public announcements that spending 300 million dollars on voiceovers was going to make TOR bigger than WoW!

If they actually existed I'd slap them senseless.

[Stabs]

MMO works on a First Past The Post system. There is the game that nearly everyone plays. Then there are also-rans. The top game makes a lot of money.

Looking at SWTOR in the context of the runners-up makes it look foolishly extravagant. Looking at SWTOR in the context of a serious bid by EA to claim the top spot for this decade it makes perfect sense that they should spend a lot.

It's $300m down for a chance at a $1b/year pay-off. Worth the bet even at quite long odds.

There's also, as Unsub observed elsewhere, a lot of ego at stake. EA can either cede top spot to Activision or they can try to take it. Iirc they owned the top spot briefly with Ultima Online. Then they lost it. Warhammer was an attempt to take it back. SWTOR will be an attempt to take it back. If SWTOR fails EA will almost certainly attempt another big budget MMO. The prize, of WoW's revenues, is something they seem to consider to be winnable.

[Azazel]

Platform is disappearing because of constant release fuck-ups compounded by ram-you-in-the-ass invasive DRM, compounded by micro-transaction/downloadable content milking, compounded with in-game advertising on top of all that. Industry is literally shitting themselves off the "platform" carpet.

Stood in firelight, sweltering. Bloodstain on chest like map of violent new continent. Felt cleansed. Felt dark planet turn under my feet and knew what cats know that makes them scream like babies in night. Looked at sky through smoke heavy with human fat and God was not there. The cold, suffocating dark goes on forever and we are alone. Live our lives, lacking anything better to do. Devise reason later. Born from oblivion; bear children, hell-bound as ourselves, go into oblivion. There is nothing else. Existence is random. Has no pattern save what we imagine after staring at it for too long. No meaning save what we choose to impose. This rudderless world is not shaped by vague metaphysical forces. It is not God who kills the children. Not fate that butchers them or destiny that feeds them to the dogs. It’s us. Only us. Streets stank of fire. The void breathed hard on my heart, turning its illusions to ice, shattering them. Was reborn then, free to scrawl own design on this morally blank world. Was Rorschach. Does that answer your questions, Doctor?

[Merusk]

Granted, but given the talent they've hired and the design decisions we've seen they're betting on on the plow horse to beat Seabiscuit.  Again.  

I wonder if at some point the guys with the money need to wake up and pay attention, but that would require knowing games vs knowing just business. The top at EA still approaches games like making widgets.

[UnSub]

WoW allegedly makes about $840m a year out of the NA / EU markets. That's the context that EA is thinking about SWOR in.

And frankly its kind of not unrealistic to expect that kind of income of 10 mill subscribers. Servers cost peanuts compared to sub fees. Its almost all pure profit.

I believe that is only the 5 million or so NA and EU players, not the full 12 million that WoW has worldwide. It's some guesswork, but I think those additional 7 million or so Asian region players contribute about US$400m-$500m back to Activision Blizzard. Operating profit on WoW is something near 50%.

So all up, WoW is a $1bn+ per year title. For several years now. It's the reason that Kotick is so secure in his position - WoW practically guarantees EA Activision-Blizzard being in the black.

When I think about it, it staggers me.

[Stabs]

Granted, but given the talent they've hired and the design decisions we've seen they're betting on on the plow horse to beat Seabiscuit.  Again.  

I wonder if at some point the guys with the money need to wake up and pay attention, but that would require knowing games vs knowing just business. The top at EA still approaches games like making widgets.

Ha ha, that's beautifully expressed, Merusk.

[Trippy]

So all up, WoW is a $1bn+ per year title. For several years now. It's the reason that Kotick is so secure in his position - WoW practically guarantees EA being in the black.

When I think about it, it staggers me.

You mean Activision not EA. And Kotick had nothing to do with the success of WoW -- that all happened per-merger. Also Vivendi still controls Activision Blizzard so Kotick can not fuck with WoW or Blizzard for that matter with risking losing his job. Unlike some other companies Vivendi very much knows they have a goose laying golden eggs for them.

[LC]

Granted, but given the talent they've hired and the design decisions we've seen they're betting on on the plow horse to beat Seabiscuit.  Again.  

A fifteen year old plow horse that's lame maybe.

[Paelos]

Damn those arrogant Bioware devs with their public announcements that spending 300 million dollars on voiceovers was going to make TOR bigger than WoW!

If they actually existed I'd slap them senseless.

If the $300M figure is true, or any ridiculous amount is true about these bloated MMOG expenses, I always question where your business handlers are in the process. As a controller or CFO, how the hell do you let things get this far off without starting to question the cash outflow? Even at best case projections, you can't make up that kind of capital expense in any reasonable amount of time.

I do understand that most accountants have no concept of what is a proper/improper expense on a technology product. Hell, it's taken years for the accounting world to even figure out how to recognize revenue in the industry (and it's still not right imo). However, they do understand overhead, and they do understand when R&D becomes unwieldy. I blame those business handlers more than any ambitious developer for things spiraling out of control. Also, if you've put your developers in charge of accounting, never never invest in that project.

[Shatter]

If I could wipe my ass with money I would do it too :)

[ghost]

As a controller or CFO, how the hell do you let things get this far off without starting to question the cash outflow?

Because you're snorting cocaine off a hooker's ass on your $3,000,000 yacht somewhere in the Mediterranean?

[Nebu]

I'd love to know how much of the money is going toward ideas vs implementation.  Our corporate culture is paying an obscene amount to the folks at the top leaving little for the people in the trenches to get things done. I wonder how much this translates to the MMO corporate structure. 

[Stabs]

Well they have 50 novels worth of voiceover, presumably almost all of it voiced by professionals. Standard industry rate in the USA for voice actors is quite high (relative to what, say, developers get per hour).

Actor David White, a Bathhouse Theatre regular in former times, reassessed his devotion to stage work when his first son was born in 1993. "I discovered that in front of a microphone, I could make in an hour what I'd make in a week doing stage work,"

http://www.seattlepi.com/theater/289468_gamevoices23.html

[Nebu]

That's just a stupid waste of money.  Hookers and blow would have been a better choice.  At least then you'd have happy employees.   

[Arthur_Parker]

I think we should stop talking about a 300 million dollar budget.  That's just a figure from EA Louse guy, so it's likely just a rumour from within the Mythic offices, better if we maintain some perspective and use Lum's 150 million figure, that's wild enough.

I'm interested if EA intend to reuse any of the SWTOR technology in the future, it's interesting that WAR didn't have an item creation tool, I thought WAR was based on a later version of the same licensed client they used for DAoC.  Everyone talks about game budgets getting out of control, yet none of the three original mmo's (that all made money) were based on a big license, seems like for a <1/2 million sub mmo, a big license is maybe not worth the cost.  On technology how many times do they need to reinvent an auction house?  SWG, WoW, LOTRO, WAR, all custom built their own, yet FFXIV launches without one, car manufacturers don't reinvent the engine for every new model, Turbine seem to have a massive advantage with budgets out of control.

[Mrbloodworth]

Warhammer Warcraft and Ulitama were big licenses by the time the MMO versions launched. Turbine uses the same client, and same back end for all its titles (all based off the AC2 suite). Warcraft originally used the same rendering engine from he Warcraft series, the back end is custom. Ultima I believe used 7 engine, and of course had its back end custom. War uses a middle ware engine called gamebryo, it was used for DAOC and WAR, however I'm not sure the back ends are different. The comment about no item tool seems silly, as most are just a spreadsheet anyway, lacking a front end may be true, but I find it hard to believe all items were hard coded, thats far fetched and this louse guy seems to be implying this. Also considering the features of the gamebryo engine....

Rapid iteration—change the art, entities, levels, and behaviors and see the effect in your game without recompiling or restarting. This minimizes the need for game restarts and reduces development delays.

Gamebryo Lightspeed Video 2009

[Arthur_Parker]

The first 3 were EQ, AC & UO, Richard Garriott was directly involved in UO so even if you think it was a big license (which I don't), it didn't cost him much as he owned the IP.

[Mrbloodworth]

The Ultima series was huge by the time UO came out. Also, I wasn't commenting on the "First to come out" just the general idea about IP's. Those three mostly were success because of lack of competition. They were a new game form.

[WayAbvPar]

The Ultima series was why I even bothered to try UO. I am sure I am not alone.

[Arthur_Parker]

Bloodworth, WoW, wasn't one of the first three, Turbine developed engine tools for AC1, AC2 was based on a later version of that I believe, the "no item tool" thing was another ex Mythic guys comment on the EA louse website.

[Mrbloodworth]

Bloodworth, WoW, wasn't one of the first three.

I didn't say it was.

[Arthur_Parker]

The Ultima series was why I even bothered to try UO. I am sure I am not alone.

In the context of mmo's based on LoTR, Star Wars, Star Trek & D&D, I don't think it's that big, but that just an opinion, it doesn't change the fact that RG was involved so I'm assuming they didn't have to pay a lot to use the IP.

[Mrbloodworth]

15 titles, first one was 1980. One MMO, the second never made it out of pre-dev. UO is technically 7.5 in the series. Not having to pay for the license is moot, IMO, as the real challenge in using any pre-established setting, is doing it justice, not paying for the privilege of trying.

The Black Gate and Serpent Isle were both critically and commercially successful, being widely lauded as a high point in the series and as two of the best isometric RPGs ever created.

UO is based on #7 The black gate.

[Arthur_Parker]

Not having to pay for the license is moot

I was talking about IP in the context of expanding budgets.

seems like for a <1/2 million sub mmo, a big license is maybe not worth the cost.

[Lum]

Excel is the front end for every systems designer. Sara Jensen Schubert (Lietgardis) gives some very good, and very popular talks on the subject. Here's the latest. Note how everyone SHUTS UP as they learn things:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NdP1PdOEpFM

When I was at Mythic one of the tools I wrote was to make it easier to make changes to items based on SQL queries expressed in English ("show me all one handed swords with at least +1 STR except the ones from Darkness Falls"). This was very, very hacktastic and DAOC specific, it does not surprise me that it had to be rewritten for Warhammer. (I'm told that there was much cursing about how nothing I wrote worked after I left. Coding everything in Delphi probably didn't help. Hey, I like Delphi.)

From everything I hear locally $150m is still the general range of the TOR budget, give or take a few $m. There comes a point where you simply can't spend any more money, throwing more money at a problem doesn't help.

You could not get me to comment on the rest of the EALouse blog if you tortured me with hot pliers. I have burned enough bridges in my nascent game development career, I'm trying to remain at least partially employable.