Oscar Picks '05

[schild]

Post your Oscar picks here.

Best Actor

Don Cheadle in “Hotel Rwanda”
Johnny Depp in “Finding Neverland”
Leonardo DiCaprio in “The Aviator”
Clint Eastwood in “Million Dollar Baby”
Jamie Foxx in “Ray” (Universal)
 
Best Supporting Actor

Alan Alda in “The Aviator”
Thomas Haden Church in “Sideways”
Jamie Foxx in “Collateral”
Morgan Freeman in “Million Dollar Baby”
Clive Owen in “Closer”
 
Best Actress

Annette Bening in “Being Julia”
Catalina Sandino Moreno in “Maria Full of Grace”
Imelda Staunton in “Vera Drake”
Hilary Swank in “Million Dollar Baby”
Kate Winslet in “Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind”
 
Best Supporting Actress

Cate Blanchett in “The Aviator”
Laura Linney in “Kinsey”
Virginia Madsen in “Sideways”
Sophie Okonedo in “Hotel Rwanda”
Natalie Portman in “Closer”
 
Best Animated Film

“The Incredibles”
“Shark Tale”
“Shrek 2”
 
Best Cinematography

“The Aviator” - Robert Richardson
“House of Flying Daggers” - Zhao Xiaoding
“The Passion of the Christ” - Caleb Deschanel
“The Phantom of the Opera” - John Mathieson
“A Very Long Engagement” - Bruno Delbonnel

Best Director

“The Aviator” - Martin Scorsese
“Million Dollar Baby” - Clint Eastwood
“Ray” - Taylor Hackford
“Sideways” - Alexander Payne
“Vera Drake” - Mike Leigh

Best Picture

“The Aviator”
“Finding Neverland”
“Million Dollar Baby”
“Ray”
“Sideways”
 
Adapted Screenplay

“Before Sunset” - Richard Linklater & Julie Delpy & Ethan Hawke
“Finding Neverland” - David Magee
“Million Dollar Baby” - Paul Haggis
“The Motorcycle Diaries” - José Rivera
“Sideways” - Alexander Payne & Jim Taylor
 
Original Screenplay

“The Aviator” - John Logan
“Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind” - Charlie Kaufman
“Hotel Rwanda” - Keir Pearson & Terry George
“The Incredibles” - Brad Bird
“Vera Drake” - Mike Leigh

You're welcome to discuss why you did or didn't pick someone. Or x should win, but y will win, etc. Save discussion for AFTER the Oscars. This isn't a presidential election or a thread about Jesus. It's far more important.

Edit: As you can see I trimmed out categories, including some "bigger ones" like best short film and best documentary. See, what I did, I cut down a 6 hour extravaganza to a 2 minute commercial break. Which is what they should do with the actual show.

[Paelos]

Best Actor - Jamie Foxx
Best Supporting Actor - Thomas Haden Church
Best Actress - I don't like the choices here, but I'll go with Kate Winslet
Supporting Actress - Laura Linney
Animated Film - Shrek II, you know the Incredibles will get the shaft
Cinematography - this means filming right? Phantom gets this one.
Director - Scorsese is the obvious choice
Picture - Tough call, but I'm thinking Aviator
Adapted Screenplay - Finding Neverland
Original Screenplay - Aviator

[stray]

Best Actor - Johnny Depp
(Like Scorsese, he's been passed one too many times. They'll give Foxx Best Supporting instead, even if he wasn't all that in Collateral)

Best Supporting Actor - Jamie Foxx

Best Actress --  Catalina Sandino Moreno (Because they feel Maria Full of Grace deserves at least one big award)

Best Supporting Actress -- Cate Blanchett

Best Animated Film -- The Incredibles

Best Cinematography -- Robert Richardson -- The Aviator

Best Director -- Martin Scorsese -- The Aviator

Best Picture -- Martin Scorsese -- The Aviator

Adapted Screenplay -- David Magee -- Finding Neverland

Original Screenplay -- John Logan -- The Aviator

[Big Gulp]

Best Actor:  Jamie Foxx
Best Supporting Actor:  Morgan Freeman
Best Actress:  Annette Bening
Best Supporting Actress:  Cate Blanchett
Best Animated Film:  The Incredibles
Best Cinematography:  The Passion of the Christ
Best Director:  Martin Scorsese
Best Picture:  Million Dollar Baby
Adapted Screenplay:  The Motocycle Diaries
Original Screenplay:  Hotel Rwanda

[Strazos]

Hmm...seems I have been slacking in my moviegoing activity....I haven't seen any of the films up for any of the awards.

[SirBruce]

Okay, so here's my thinking.  The Academy really has the hots for both Million Dollar Baby and The Aviator, so they're going to get the big awards.

Scorsese has to win Best Director, since he's been nominated so many times and not, so that means Clint Eastwood can't get Best Director.  I can't see them awarding Leo, and Swank already won a best actress award for Boys Don't Cry.  So that means Eastwood has to get best actor, which he's never won.  Blanchett will get best supporting.

Okay, so here are my picks:

Best Actor - Clint Eastwood
Best Supporting Actor - Morgan Freeman
Best Actress - Catalina Sandino Moreno
Best Supporting Actress - Cate Blanchett
Best Animated Film - The Incredibles
Best Cinematography - The Phantom of the Opera
Best Director - Martin Scorsese
Best Picture - The Aviator
Best Adapted Screenplay - Million Dollar Baby
Best Original Screenplay - Hotel Rwanda

Bruce

[stray]

Good reasoning Bruce. After all, it's about politics, not films.

I totally forgot about Eastwood getting screwed after all of these years. Depp, although he's been passed more than enough already, still has years ahead of him. But if Foxx beats either one, I'll be pissed.

[Kenrick]

Let's see if I suck as bad at movies as I do at football.  Some (if not most) of these are going to be purely and completely guesses.  


Best Actor
Jamie Foxx in “Ray”
 
Best Supporting Actor
Clive Owen in “Closer”
 
Best Actress
Annette Bening in “Being Julia”
 
Best Supporting Actress
Natalie Portman in “Closer”
 
Best Animated Film
“Shrek 2”
 
Best Cinematography
“The Aviator” - Robert Richardson

Best Director
“The Aviator” - Martin Scorsese

Best Picture
“The Aviator”
 
Adapted Screenplay
“Finding Neverland” - David Magee
 
Original Screenplay
“Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind” - Charlie Kaufman



(Dear fucking god, I just realized the only nominees I've seen are Eternal Sunshine, Phantom of the Opera, and Shrek 2.)

[stray]

Just to mention: As much as I loved Spider-Man 2, I'd hate to see it beat I, Robot in the Visual Effects category. Spider-Man 2's CGI is pretty horrible at times.

EDIT: Then again, the fight scenes in Spidey were great. Even if the characters looked fake.

I'm surprised Riddick didn't make it on that list though. As far as effects go, there's no contest. I didn't like much else of the film, but I do think it's the best looking Sci-Fi flick to date.

[eldaec]

Jamie Foxx in “Ray” (Universal)
Alan Alda in “The Aviator”
Virginia Madsen in “Sideways”
“The Incredibles”
“The Passion of the Christ” - Caleb Deschanel
“Ray” - Taylor Hackford
“Ray”
“Sideways” - Alexander Payne & Jim Taylor
“The Aviator” - John Logan

Interestingly the only film I've seen on any of those lists is Shrek 2. Which was crap. Yet I don't feel this fact has any significant effect on the accuracy of my predictions. Take from that what you will.

[Kenrick]

Interestingly the only film I've seen on any of those lists is Shrek 2. Which was crap.

Granted it isn't high art, but why do you call it crap?

[Paelos]

Yeah I really don't get the hate for Shrek 2. Unless its an overall sequals hate. I thought it was funny in places, better than average in total.

[Big Gulp]

Yeah I really don't get the hate for Shrek 2. Unless its an overall sequals hate. I thought it was funny in places, better than average in total.

I think it stems from the fact that without fail they went for pop culture jokes that weren't nearly as clever as the writers thought they were.  In my opinion the movie just looked like a cash grab without any soul behind it.   Consequently the movie isn't going to age well compared to something like the Incredibles, which IMO, was much better written.

[Ardent]

Here are my predictions:

Acronym key:

WW - Will Win
IAFCTWEN - It's A Fucking Crime This Wasn't Even Nominated

Best Actor

WW: Jamie Foxx in “Ray”
IAFCTWEN: Paul Giamatti in "Sideways" or Liam Neeson in "Kinsey"

Best Supporting Actor

WW: Morgan Freeman in “Million Dollar Baby”
IAFCTWEN: Mark Wahlberg in "I Heart Huckabees" or Peter Saarsgard in "Kinsey"

Best Actress

WW: Hilary Swank in “Million Dollar Baby”
IAFCTWEN: Julie Delpy in "Before Sunset"

Best Supporting Actress

WW: Virginia Madsen in “Sideways”
IAFCTWEN: Maggie Cheung in "Hero"

Best Animated Film

WW: “The Incredibles”
IAFCTWEN: "Ghost In The Shell 2"

Best Cinematography

WW: “The Aviator” - Robert Richardson
IAFCTWEN: "Hero" - Chris Doyle

Best Director

WW: “The Aviator” - Martin Scorsese
IAFCTWEN: "Hero" - Yimou Zhang

Best Picture

WW: “The Aviator”
IAFCTWEN: "The Incredibles"

Adapted Screenplay

WW: “Million Dollar Baby” - Paul Haggis

Original Screenplay

WW: “The Incredibles” - Brad Bird

[WindupAtheist]

Incredibles will pummel Shrek 2 in the only Oscar race I give a shit about this year.

[Jamiko]

Best Actor - Jamie Foxx in “Ray” (Universal)
Best Supporting Actor - Thomas Haden Church in “Sideways”
Best Actress - Hilary Swank in “Million Dollar Baby”
Best Supporting Actress - Virginia Madsen in “Sideways”
Best Animated Film - “The Incredibles”
Best Cinematography - “The Passion of the Christ” - Caleb Deschanel
Best Director - “The Aviator” - Martin Scorsese
Best Picture - “The Aviator”
Adapted Screenplay - “The Motorcycle Diaries” - José Rivera
Original Screenplay - “Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind” - Charlie Kaufman

[Windurst]

Best Picture - The Lord of the Rings:  Return of the King Extended Edition

[Avatard]

Best Picture - The Lord of the Rings:  Return of the King Extended Edition

What the fuck is wrong with you?

[Llava]

I've not seen the vast majority of these films.

Quite disappointed with the nominations.  Finding Neverland was good, not great.  They should have given Depp best supporting actor for Pirates last year.  Anyone else who plays Captain Jack Sparrow will be doing it wrong, because Depp lived in that character.

But, as has been noted, it's about politics, not movies.  So they may give him his award for Pirates by writing "Finding Neverland" on it.  But I doubt it.  It's more likely to go to Eastwood or Foxx.  I'm sure the temptation to give it to the black actor for PR reasons is there, whether or not he gave the superior performance.  I didn't see "Ray", it's not my kind of movie, so I can't say one way or the other.  I have heard extremely good things about his performance, some from critics that I actually trust, so I'll assume he does deserve it if/when he picks up the award.  I just hope that, if they decide not to give it to him, we don't hear grumblings of "of course not, he's black."  Naturally, we will.

Best Animated-

Shrek 2 was nothing special.  It was okay.  Honestly, I was disappointed.  I enjoyed the first one quite a bit more.  That Shark Tale was even nominated shows that the category isn't really taken that seriously yet.  Incredibles wins by quite a ways.

Best Picture-

Finding Neverland was, as I said, a nice little film.  It wasn't best picture.
Sideways was a comedy, from what I understand. That means it loses.
Ray, Million Dollar Baby and The Aviator are the real contenders.  My instinct says that The Aviator will win.  It hearkens back to an era when actors and actresses were gods, and that wins it subconcious brownie points.  Ray will be given a firm handshake and a friendly pat on the ass.  Million Dollar Baby will get the "I Should Have Won Best Picture" award.  Not that I've seen it, but based on the hype I'm thinking that'll be the sentiment.

Best Original Screenplay-

Eternal Sunshine ought to win this.  I'm not sure it will.  Hotel Rwanda will be stiff competition.  I strongly, strongly doubt The Incredibles should be considered real competition in this category.  The movie was great and very clever... but a part of me says that the screenplay isn't really a contender next to these.  Given less perfect voice acting, my instinct says that the funniest jokes in The Incredibles would've come off as quite lame.  Thinking about Sam Jackson's scene where he's arguing with his wife- would that have been funny if it was anyone but Sam Jackson?  There's a line between actors carrying a joke and actors amplifying a joke, and for some reason I feel that a lot of the jokes in The Incredibles were carried by the actors.

[Murgos]

Sideways was a comedy, from what I understand. That means it loses.

Buddy movie actually, they win once every 20 years or so.  But, no, I don't think it will win this year.

It was very good though.

[HaemishM]

I will give my only Oscar Picks now.

The Oscars will be awarded to completely undeserving movies that half the viewers have never seen, and the awards shows will suck wet farts out of dead pigeons.

[schild]

I will give my only Oscar Picks now.

The Oscars will be awarded to completely undeserving movies that half the viewers have never seen, and the awards shows will suck wet farts out of dead pigeons.

But Chris Rock will be funny, right? Right.

[pack1112]

Best Actor

Jamie Foxx in “Ray” (Universal)
 
Best Supporting Actor

Jamie Foxx in “Collateral”
 
Best Actress

Hilary Swank in “Million Dollar Baby”
 
Best Supporting Actress


Natalie Portman in “Closer”
 
Best Animated Film

“Shrek 2”
 
Best Cinematography

“House of Flying Daggers” - Zhao Xiaoding

Best Director

“Million Dollar Baby” - Clint Eastwood

Best Picture


“Ray”

[SirBruce]

I'll update this post with the winners as they occur:

Best Supporting Actor - Morgan Freeman for "Millian Dollar Baby"
Best Animated Film - The Incredibles
Best Supporting Actress - Cate Blanchett for "The Aviator"
Best Adapted Screenplay - "Sideways"
Best Cinematography - "The Aviator"
Best Actress - Hillary Swank in "Million Dollar Baby"
Best Original Screemplay - "Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind"
Best Actor - Jamie Foxx in "Ray"
Best Director - Clint Eastwood for "Million Dollar Baby"
Best Picture - "Milion Dollar Baby"

Bruce

[Kenrick]

Why not just make new posts?

++

[schild]

He can keep editing that one.

Funny though, I never posted my guesses. Mostly because after seeing Aviator, I just didn't give a shit.

[Kenrick]

Here's an award:

Worstest Year for Movies and Oscars Evar

Congratulations, 2004!

[Paelos]

Die in a statue fire, Swank.

[Big Gulp]

Die in a statue fire, Swank.

Hate, hate, hate that bitch.  Hate her horse face, and her false "I'm just po' white trash" sincerity.  No way she was the best actress, any of those other women have actually put in a career and can act circles around her.

[schild]

Hollywood LOVVVVVVVVVVES them some Hillary Swank. Whenever she's nominated, it's better to pretend the Oscars don't exist.

[Paelos]

Hollywood LOVVVVVVVVVVES them some Hillary Swank. Whenever she's nominated, it's better to pretend the Oscars don't exist.

I'm doing that right now. There was an Oscars? I just saw a lovely evening of people giving thanks. Hooray!

[Big Gulp]

Once again Marty gets no love.  He must have pissed someone off mightily to keep getting shutdown.  How many of his movies have won best picture, and yet he's never won best director.  They must think his movies just make themselves.

Hell, though, you're probably in better company with the people who've been snubbed.  Hitchcock never won, Kubrick never won, yadda yadda.

[SirBruce]

Yeah, I'm surprised The Aviator didn't get more love, too.  I only got 5 awards right.  I figured they'd love the classic Hollywood angle of the movie, and I just didn't think they'd give Clint Best Director AGAIN and Hillary Swank Best Actress AGAIN.  Oh well.

Bruce

[Big Gulp]

Yeah, I'm surprised The Aviator didn't get more love, too.  I only got 5 awards right.  I figured they'd love the classic Hollywood angle of the movie, and I just didn't think they'd give Clint Best Director AGAIN and Hillary Swank Best Actress AGAIN.  Oh well.

Bruce

And I'll harp on this 'til the day I die; Kevin Costner has a best director oscar and Martin Scorsese doesn't.

If ever there was proof that there is no justice in this world, that's it.  Hell, that tracking shot when Ray Liotta leads Lorraine Bracco through the back door of the club, through the kitchen, past all the waiters and into the table that the maitre de sets up for them on the spot deserves a best director oscar all by itself.  It's a two minute long tracking shot, for fuck's sake.  Do people even realize that something as simple as that is so fucking hard?!?

[MrHat]

I'm glad Kaufman won.

Clint needs to die already.  Maybe Swank chokes on him.

Foxx did do an amazing job in Ray, but Cheadle should've had that.

Ah, Oscar, how I hate thee.