NHL: Lord Stanley Tourney 2010 Predictions

[Paelos]

So I looked at the Vegas odds. The Hawks are 2.5-1 favorites to win the whole thing. Pretty unbalanced odds for the supposedly two best teams in hockey facing off.

[HaemishM]

How the fuck did that happen? I've barely paid attention to the season or the playoffs.

I hate fuckers like you. You remind me of the bitch at work who doesn't watch anything but Sex and the City and Desperate Housewives but somehow picks every god damn office pool sports winner and then is shocked she won. Prolly running a bookie on the side and faking it 

Sly son of a bitch.

Hey, I won the office final four brackets (and $43 bucks) with the same lack of foreknowledge. Ignorance is serving me well!

[Strazos]

So I looked at the Vegas odds. The Hawks are 2.5-1 favorites to win the whole thing. Pretty unbalanced odds for the supposedly two best teams in hockey facing off.

I would think the nature of hockey doesn't lend itself to reliable oddsmaking. I'd like to see a bookie explain their odds on this.

[naum]

How the fuck did that happen? I've barely paid attention to the season or the playoffs.

I hate fuckers like you. You remind me of the bitch at work who doesn't watch anything but Sex and the City and Desperate Housewives but somehow picks every god damn office pool sports winner and then is shocked she won. Prolly running a bookie on the side and faking it 

Sly son of a bitch.

Hey, I won the office final four brackets (and $43 bucks) with the same lack of foreknowledge. Ignorance is serving me well!

Haemish got both conference championship series correct.

Though overall, on average, everyone did much better that round than in round 2 where the going was rough, especially in the E. conference selections where all the underdogs won except the Pens series.

[Paelos]

So I looked at the Vegas odds. The Hawks are 2.5-1 favorites to win the whole thing. Pretty unbalanced odds for the supposedly two best teams in hockey facing off.

I would think the nature of hockey doesn't lend itself to reliable oddsmaking. I'd like to see a bookie explain their odds on this.

I can explain it pretty simply. Chicago was second in wins with 52 in the regular season, and Philly was a .500 team that eeked into the playoffs. Since then, Chicago's knocked off the 7, 3, and 1 seeds. Philly beat the 2, 6, and 8 seeds. They probably started the odds at 1.5-1, and have to move them because the heavy money was on Chicago.

[El Gallo]

So I looked at the Vegas odds. The Hawks are 2.5-1 favorites to win the whole thing. Pretty unbalanced odds for the supposedly two best teams in hockey facing off.

I would think the nature of hockey doesn't lend itself to reliable oddsmaking. I'd like to see a bookie explain their odds on this.

Because at that spread they get half the bettors to pick one team and half to pick the other *snide*

I'll take the Broad Street Bullies at those odds.  That is, I would if I could align my interests in any way with the Flyers and still respect myself.

[Strazos]

I can explain it pretty simply. Chicago was second in wins with 52 in the regular season, and Philly was a .500 team that eeked into the playoffs. Since then, Chicago's knocked off the 7, 3, and 1 seeds. Philly beat the 2, 6, and 8 seeds. They probably started the odds at 1.5-1, and have to move them because the heavy money was on Chicago.

Regular season =! playoffs

Also, Washington won the President's, and they still lost in sad fashion. Flyers had devastating injuries this year, which explains part of their record.

From a pure odds standpoint, I'd probably pick Chicago. However, performance in hockey many times tends to work out to be more than the sum of its parts; lots of intangibles.

[Paelos]

From a pure odds standpoint, I'd probably pick Chicago. However, performance in hockey many times tends to work out to be more than the sum of its parts; lots of intangibles.

Sure, but hockey's no different than anything else. The gamblers look at those intangibles, the stats, and the previous outcomes to make their wagers. The bookies move the lines based on trying to get everything to even out. All that means is that in a straight 1-1 fight, gamblers overwhelmingly picked Chicago.

They can be horribly wrong in hockey just as easy as in other championships. Hell, the Colts were 9 point favorites in a Super Bowl they lost. Still, that's the random element of "any given Sunday" rather than a seven game series. Those upsets are much harder to pull off when you play the game over and over again.

EDIT: I should also point out that in the last ten years, we've had several high seeds make it to the Stanley Cup finals, but nobody above a four seed has ever won it. That's not to say it won't go to seven games, as the 7 and 8 seeds both took the series the distance.

[Bunk]

Regular season =! playoffs

Also, Washington won the President's, and they still lost in sad fashion. Flyers had devastating injuries this year, which explains part of their record.

From a pure odds standpoint, I'd probably pick Chicago. However, performance in hockey many times tends to work out to be more than the sum of its parts; lots of intangibles.

lol, fanboi 

[Chimpy]

No team that wears Brown and Orange deserves to win a title just on the sheer ugliness of those two colors together.

[Strazos]

...Good thing no one in this series is wearing Orange and Brown...?

[01101010]

No team that wears Brown and Orange deserves to win a title just on the sheer ugliness of those two colors together.

As a Browns fan, I must say you are probably right...but I also must say fuck you, sir.

[Strazos]

What a sloppy, sloppy game that was on Saturday - by both teams. Hopefully tonight's game turns out better.

[Paelos]

Tonight is going to be all about goaltending after that back and forth fiasco. Time will tell if starting Leighton for a second time is the right call.

[HaemishM]

Good first two games - the first because it was crazy stupid back and forth, and last night's game because there was some damn snappy goaltending.

[Paelos]

Must win for Philly tonight. Chicago isn't Boston, and going down 3-0 would mean they can basically kiss any chance at the Cup goodbye.

[WayAbvPar]

Just to reiterate-

Fuck the Blackhawks.

Aside from that, it will ruin the LOL-worthy narrative of Hossa being a cunty glory-hunter only to fall short 3 straight years if they win.

[Paelos]

Well, good news for NHL ratings, the Flyers actually looked like they knew how to play hockey in that last game.

[HaemishM]

Blackhawks have had much better forechecking in the series than the Flyers, but Philly looked good last night. Hawks can't win a faceoff or score a power play goal it appears, but somehow they are up 2-1 and almost 3-0. They also seem to fall asleep right after they score a goal.

[Paelos]

They also seem to fall asleep right after they score a goal.

I can't tell if that's bad line changes, or just complete brain farts on the part of Chicago.

[HaemishM]

It's happened more than once in the series, so I'm thinking lack of discipline.

[naum]

Can't think of a recent SC final I have had less interest in…

Or it could be that I just can't fathom confessing that I'm silently rooting for the Flyers…

…ordinarily, rooting for the Blackhawks would not be so objectionable, considering the epic long cup drought but the presence of Hossa precludes such a stance. That and I'd like to see a couple of ex-Yote skaters (Briere and Carcillo) get their name etched on the Cup…

[RhyssaFireheart]

Well, the Hawks have won some face offs, but tend to not do anything then (except maybe for Sopel's goal).  That overtime period was crazy though, especially with the almost goal (coming on top of the goal that almost wasn't that tied the game for the Flyers) and then Chicago just plain getting caught with their pants down on that line change.

My husband is watching the games with me, but it's kind of funny.  He's always giving me looks because I see stuff he doesn't really recognize because he's not a fan like I am.  I haven't followed in recent years until the Hawks started getting good (yes, I freely admit to bandwagonning this year), but I spent plenty of time in the old Checkerdome arena when I was growing up near St. Louis.  Blues will always be closest to my heart, but I've been living in the Chicago area for over 20 years now, maybe it's time to finally admit I can like some Chicago teams. 

[Strazos]

Hawks can't win a faceoff or score a power play goal it appears, but somehow they are up 2-1 and almost 3-0. They also seem to fall asleep right after they score a goal.

They could also be down 2-1 and possibly 3-0. All 1 goal games; Niemi has been good enough to be their difference-maker.

[Abagadro]

Ok, NBC are true morons. During the handshakes they switch out for promos/commercials. I mean, WHAT...THE...FUCK!

[HaemishM]

NBC. Nuff said.

Though the officiating wasn't great, I can't say it was all that bad this series, except for that 3rd period. There really should have been a penalty on Chicago in that last minute. It was inconsistent as usual for the NHL.

Chicago won that series with forechecking and goaltending. Leighton didn't play bad at home, but getting pulled twice on the road, I'm surprised the coach kept going back to him. Neither goalie looked great, but Niemi was certainly more steady.

[Paelos]

Well, I was dead-on and still lost. Damn second round! 

[RhyssaFireheart]

Whoo hoo!  I'm almost tempted to head downtown on Friday (probably will be Friday) for the parade, but I'm not sure I want to brave a Loop full of hockey fans, even for a chance to see the Cup in person.

[Hoax]

Whoo hoo!  I'm almost tempted to head downtown on Friday (probably will be Friday) for the parade, but I'm not sure I want to brave a Loop full of hockey fans, even for a chance to see the Cup in person.

do it.  That is a once in a lifetime opportunity right there.

[01101010]

do it.  That is a once in a lifetime opportunity right there.

Or at least another 40+ years 

[RhyssaFireheart]

Whoo hoo!  I'm almost tempted to head downtown on Friday (probably will be Friday) for the parade, but I'm not sure I want to brave a Loop full of hockey fans, even for a chance to see the Cup in person.

do it.  That is a once in a lifetime opportunity right there.

Trust me, it is tempting.  Well, besides the fact that I'd need to get up early enough to catch an express commuter train downtown (aka before 8 am) and it's supposed to be the hottest day of the week tomorrow with the chance of storms.  I'm too lazy to deal with high-80s and huge crowds in downtown Chicago.  I'll content myself with becoming a better fan for the upcoming year and seeing if we can't swing a game or two next season.

[Strazos]

NBC. Nuff said.

Though the officiating wasn't great, I can't say it was all that bad this series, except for that 3rd period. There really should have been a penalty on Chicago in that last minute. It was inconsistent as usual for the NHL.

Chicago won that series with forechecking and goaltending. Leighton didn't play bad at home, but getting pulled twice on the road, I'm surprised the coach kept going back to him. Neither goalie looked great, but Niemi was certainly more steady.

Agree on officiating. Game 5 was pretty bad, and Briere got speared in the face, no call.

I'd say Chicago won more off the rush than forechecking. I would have liked to have seen them won off a better goal than what they got. 

Niemi made the saves when he needed to. Even if Chicago won the series by the skin of their teeth, they earned it I guess.

[HaemishM]

That was a totally fucked up goal to end the series. A good shot I suppose, but just freaky and anti-climatic the way it went in.

[Strazos]

More of a terrible save attempt than a good shot...though I suppose it proves the hockey maxim, "Just get the puck on-net, and things can happen."

[Bunk]

No point in trying to start a new NHL thread...


http://tsn.ca/nhl/story/?id=326256

"The Vancouver Canucks are close to locking up defenceman Dan Hamhuis to a reported six-year contract worth $4.5 million per year. "