NCsoft Q3 2009 Results - Aion looks to do well...

[DLRiley]

The funny thing about Falc is that he supports the game going completely niche instead of saying it could solve its mainstream problems. Despite the fact that NcSoft will most likely cull future development of Aion if turns out to have niche game numbers in the west. Lineage 2 all over again.

[Nebu]

Nobody here wants a mainstream game.  F13 doesn't cater to mainstream gamers. 

Aion will be Lineage 2.5.  I said this about the game back in beta.  Expecting anything else would be delusional. 

[Xanthippe]

The game has major flaws, and NCSoft's veritable lack of customer service is definitely high on the list.

I expect regular customer service from a company that I pay a monthly fee to.  The fact that I still cannot submit an online petition sunk the game for me.  If they can't manage to "fix" that problem (I suspect they broke it on purpose) by now then they don't get any more of my dollars.

They got the purchase price plus one additional month.  That's as far as I'm willing to go if they aren't willing to service customers in a reasonable manner.  

[DLRiley]

Nobody here wants a mainstream game.  F13 doesn't cater to mainstream gamers. 

Aion will be Lineage 2.5.  I said this about the game back in beta.  Expecting anything else would be delusional. 

I said Aion is reskinned Lineage 2 months before beta. Fact is they aren't pulling for a niche game then and their defiantly not pulling for one now. They have already proven that they will close servers if a game under performs.

[ghost]

F13 doesn't cater to mainstream gamers. 

You need mainstream numbers to develop the game that F13 would want, however.  Therefore there is an impasse. 

[Simond]

UnSub (800k potential AAA early adopters) = correct.
Waylander (800 - 1200k RVR PVPers) = smokin crack.  (The rest of Waylander's post was full of great observation and analysis, but in no way supported his opening thesis)

There are more than a million Westerners itching to play a new AAA diku-type MMO with as much fun and polish as (but different from) WoW, and 800k of them are willing to pay money up front on hopes of finding that new fix. 

In attempting to provide that fix we have gotten:

LotRO - not quite as good (at release), not quite different enough.
AoC - different enough and actually much more fun for 20 levels, then crap with a lot of nothing interspersed with more crap.
WAR - promised something better for the end game, delivered crap for the 1 to max grind and nothing workable for the end game.
Aion - probably different enough, probably polished enough, but horrible levelling curve plus balance issues with PvP, gold farming, gold spamming, & etc. cripple the fun factor.
CO - *laugh*  wrong league.
EVE - not DIKU and thus too different.  Probably also too much boredom between bouts of fun for mainstream success.

um, who did I miss?

Everquest 2.

Yeah, I know that technically it predates WoW but EQ2 now has only a passing resemblance to the Vision-riddled Second System fuckup it was at launch.

[Nebu]

You need mainstream numbers to develop the game that F13 would want, however.  Therefore there is an impasse. 

I want to disagree, but realize that I have no expertise to do so.  I think it's possible to make a profitable MMO that would satisfy the gamers here.  The margins would just be much smaller than what you see for something like WoW.  I'm sure that's not a very sexy pitch to investors.  

[Draegan]

I think there are plenty of people here want a "mainstream" game but many people here don't want a diku game.  There's a difference.

[Falconeer]

The funny thing about Falc is that he supports the game going completely niche instead of saying it could solve its mainstream problems. Despite the fact that NcSoft will most likely cull future development of Aion if turns out to have niche game numbers in the west. Lineage 2 all over again.

You trolled me for months and it still escapes you that 'mainstream' is not exactly my thing? I don't like niche, I am a niche.

EDIT: Lineage 2 development has been culled due to numbers in the west? Joke of the day. Lineage tanked in the west and DESPITE THAT development has been strong because, you know, Asian numbers. Don't wait on your toes for Aion's development to be culled anytime soon, it'll stay strong and constantly expanded for the next 10 years thanks to, again, Asian numbers. Works for me.

[Lantyssa]

The game has major flaws, and NCSoft's veritable lack of customer service is definitely high on the list.

Which is odd, because CoX had the best customer service I had seen in a game for a long time.  They easily got a few extra months out of me because of how they handled problems I had.

[Sir Fodder]

Aion subs will be cliff diving in the west IMO, massive bot swarms and utter lack of CS plus a Lord of the Flies vibe. I think that Aion's long term appeal (for most westerners at least, all lollipop and no tootsie roll) was limited to begin with, but they could have saved a lot of early cancellations if they had launched with the spam controls that were put in about 3 weeks after launch (and made it clear to newbies how to use the spammer block tool, which they never did) I mean lots and lots of cancellations, huge numbers.. and the fix was so simple, they still are doing a remarkably poor job of hand holding newbies- money down the drain, astounding. The bots is another story, there are elements of gameplay that make it seem like the game was designed to accommodate botting, really bizarre...

[Ashamanchill]

Aion subs will be cliff diving in the west IMO, massive bot swarms and utter lack of CS plus a Lord of the Flies vibe. I think that Aion's long term appeal (for most westerners at least, all lollipop and no tootsie roll) was limited to begin with, but they could have saved a lot of early cancellations if they had launched with the spam controls that were put in about 3 weeks after launch (and made it clear to newbies how to use the spammer block tool, which they never did)

Haha. They should have a quest in the tuturial where some faggot NPC is spamming chat in the opening area, and it's your job to shut him out.

[ghost]

You need mainstream numbers to develop the game that F13 would want, however.  Therefore there is an impasse. 

I want to disagree, but realize that I have no expertise to do so.  I think it's possible to make a profitable MMO that would satisfy the gamers here.  The margins would just be much smaller than what you see for something like WoW.  I'm sure that's not a very sexy pitch to investors.  

Yeah, that's sort of my point though.  I think people here would require a somewhat polished game that meets certain criteria.  The money would never be available for a realistic number of subscribers.  For instance, even with the lip service, does anyone really think Mythic was "okay" with having 300,000 subs?  I doubt that EA was.  Maybe some smaller developer would be willing, but I don't think any of these folks are expecting to hit a ground rule double.  They all want the grand slam WoW money in the end.

[Chimpy]

And not to seem like an apologist, because I am not. But NCSoft did post positions for GMs to specifically target botting and RMT stuff about 2 and a half weeks ago now. Of course, they should have expanded their GM staff as soon as they saw the kind of presale numbers they were getting in September instead of at the one month mark, but hindsight is 20/20.

Of course, they did not trumpt that all over their official site for the game or in their in game system. They could probably have saved another 10% of the bleeding subs if they had just let people know they were on a massive GM hiring spree.

[Count Nerfedalot]

LotRO - not quite as good (at release), not quite different enough.
AoC - different enough and actually much more fun for 20 levels, then crap with a lot of nothing interspersed with more crap.
WAR - promised something better for the end game, delivered crap for the 1 to max grind and nothing workable for the end game.
Aion - probably different enough, probably polished enough, but horrible levelling curve plus balance issues with PvP, gold farming, gold spamming, & etc. cripple the fun factor.
CO - *laugh*  wrong league.
EVE - not DIKU and thus too different.  Probably also too much boredom between bouts of fun for mainstream success.

um, who did I miss?

Everquest 2.

Yeah, I know that technically it predates WoW but EQ2 now has only a passing resemblance to the Vision-riddled Second System fuckup it was at launch.

EQ2 is actually what I'm playing now, off and on.  But I left it out because the version that was initially released was designed before anyone knew anything about WoW.

EQ2 also stands as the poster child for why you have to wait to release it until it's finished.  And by finished I mean a full polished experience with all major systems functioning and sufficient content to get you from 1 to max without too much repetition.  EQ2 as it exists now is far better than WAR, AoC or probably even Aion.  Yet there's just no way it's going to get any significant portion of those 800K - 1.2M people that wasted their money on those others to even give it a try.  It's sad, because the EQ2 live team has learned all the right lessons and done the right things, yet they'll likely never profit from it because the suits at Sony pushed it out the door waay too soon (after developing it with the wrong Vision in the first place).

Sony marketing also shares some of the blame.  I remember seeing lots of commercials on TV plus ads everywhere for EQ2, right about the time WoW's first expansion came out.  A year later, when I was bored of WoW and looking for something else though, EQ2 was nowhere to be found.  They wasted a lot of money trying to go head-to-head with WoW (repeatedly) when they could have gotten much better return on their investment (and quite possibly have picked up a lot more long term subscribers) by holding their fire until the time was right - ie, when WoW players were bored and facing a long wait still for the next expansion.

[UnSub]

It's sad, because the EQ2 live team has learned all the right lessons and done the right things, yet they'll likely never profit from it because the suits at Sony pushed it out the door waay too soon (after developing it with the wrong Vision in the first place).

So who's to blame for EQ2's initial failure - the suits or the devs? Should the suits have waited and spent more money so that the devs could have really polished up that wrong Vision?

EQ2 was an initial design failure that was saved by having the right people on it post-launch to bring it back.

[Falconeer]

EQ2 is a great game. Absolutely awesome (for a diku MMORPG). Where me (the niche) and you all disagree is that it was great even when it launched. It just wasn't for you (the mainstream). Something not ok when you spent 60m or so in the making, I understand that.

[Count Nerfedalot]

It's sad, because the EQ2 live team has learned all the right lessons and done the right things, yet they'll likely never profit from it because the suits at Sony pushed it out the door waay too soon (after developing it with the wrong Vision in the first place).

So who's to blame for EQ2's initial failure - the suits or the devs? Should the suits have waited and spent more money so that the devs could have really polished up that wrong Vision?

EQ2 was an initial design failure that was saved by having the right people on it post-launch to bring it back.

The original design team, the suits, marketing, the green shade money guys, and probably Sony HQ, some shady Yakuza-linked investors, el nino, ufo's and numerous others all share the blame for the train wreck whose shipping date got pushed up just so they could beat WoW to market by a couple weeks.  I might have agreed with Falc that the original EQ2 was a good game, just not for me, if the dang thing had actually worked rather than being a buggy pos that ran like crap on what was then-state-of-the-art gaming rigs.

But that's all just sadly normal for the industry.  The real surprise in all that is that the B-team came in and learned the right lessons and actually made a great game out of it.

[Daztur]

In order to keep these people as paying customers they have to:

If the intent it to allow people to PVP in a zone from levels 25-35, then level shouldn't be 99% of the deciding factor on who wins.

The end game has to be rewarding, or people will feel like their efforts are wasted. 

So, in other words high level people shouldn't be much more powerful than low level people but high level people should constantly get more powerful. A bit of a problem there :)

[Numtini]

LotRO - not quite as good (at release), not quite different enough.

A little too early before people were tired enough of WoW. But with some very minor changes, and a different engine, this could have been a huge hit. But there's something about the Turbine engine that either you don't mind or it drives you out of your skull. It's a vague lag and sluggishness that I would liken to the difference between driving a sportscar and a big old boat. It lacks fahrfegnugen :) (Which is sad because obviously the engine is capable of some really beautiful stuff.)

That and the long chain quests requiring a group with no real way to form groups.

But even with those, I don't know the sub numbers, and from the number of servers they can't be all that. But I'm shocked that it didn't do better than it did. If it was released a year later I think it would have had a far different trajectory.

[Venkman]

You need mainstream numbers to develop the game that F13 would want, however.  Therefore there is an impasse. 

I want to disagree, but realize that I have no expertise to do so.  I think it's possible to make a profitable MMO that would satisfy the gamers here.  The margins would just be much smaller than what you see for something like WoW.  I'm sure that's not a very sexy pitch to investors.

There's no single "F13 demographic" to design an MMO for, any more than "MMO" is an accurate umbrella term for everything from GW to SL . Some people want to be first in an MMO and then bolt at the first sign of success, because it's no longer cool and unique. Some people want mass success so they can validate their own choices. Some people want a hugely immersive game they can play in uninterupted five hour stretches. Others bitch when they can level every half hour.

Back on topic: the 800k box sales proves there's a market of people chomping at the bit for a competent WoW-like game that isn't WoW. The post-launch cliff-dive proves nobody has delivered it yet.

[Nyght]

We are mostly here because we are interested in the subject matter and like to be around (relatively  ) intelligent discussion of it. I don't believe there is a core F13 playstyle  at all.

[ghost]

If Blizzard just redid WoW with updated graphics and the ability to level with PvP effectively they would knock it dead. 

[Draegan]

I wouldn't be surprised if that wasn't something they are making right now.  But not DIKU.

[Malakili]

If Blizzard just redid WoW with updated graphics and the ability to level with PvP effectively they would knock it dead. 

It sounds good but, I mean, are they really going to knock it MORE dead than just making more WoW expansions? I'm one of those "perfect storm" people that thinks WoW's success is as much a part of its pop culture status as it is of being a great game.  I mean, it would still likely be the most successful MMO even if it had never "caught on," but the numbers they have are just so far past the rest for the market they are aiming for that I don't think you could assume that many subscribers for the exact same thing, even done better, today.  They might possibly be able to do it through using WoW to gain the attention they need for something new, but I just don't see them making another game with similar results, even if thegame is "better."

[DLRiley]

WoW's numbers, at least in the west, are inflated. Their hasn't been a competent (as in not stuck between the time period of Daoc and EQ2) mainstream mmo released at all since Wow. WoW has no competition and hence it is the king of the hill. WoW has no competition and hence it is competing with itself.

[Numtini]

Lord of the Rings Online was competent. I'm probably one of the harshest critics of the game on f13. But it was a complete game without major flaws other than squishy imprecise movement and poor ability to find groups. (The latter a sin that WoW reveled in for years and seems to want to return to.)

I said this elsewhere, but I think Cataclysm is WoW-2. Remake the world to the point of it being a new world, move a bunch of mechanics around. But keep their subscribers.

[March]

I said this elsewhere, but I think Cataclysm is WoW-2. Remake the world to the point of it being a new world, move a bunch of mechanics around. But keep their subscribers.

Yes, but the real question is not what 4.0 will be but what they plan for 4.x ... if there is rebirth and innovation, that is where we will see it.

[01101010]

If Blizzard just redid WoW with updated graphics and the ability to level with PvP effectively they would knock it dead. 

and released it on consoles. 

[Venkman]

That.

Plus, I thought there was a plan to add PvP XP at one point earlier this year? This was one of those things I said back during the beta of WAR. XP from PvP is a great idea if done right. But that alone would more likely mean Blizzard would steal it than it would be the major success factor of WAR

[Merusk]

Yes, they added Xp in the battlegrounds.  The problem is it's still much, much quicker to quest or mob grind.  Particularly with the 2 heirloom items that give 10% bonuses to all xp gains.  To get decent Xp in a battleground you have to be constantly churning kills, capping objectives and winning the match.  If none of those three things happen, you're better off doing the same ol' same ol'.

[ghost]

I don't think there is an "F13 playstyle" necessarily, but the tendencies here are definitely more towards PvP than PvE.

[MikeD]

Yes, they added Xp in the battlegrounds.  The problem is it's still much, much quicker to quest or mob grind.  Particularly with the 2 heirloom items that give 10% bonuses to all xp gains.  To get decent Xp in a battleground you have to be constantly churning kills, capping objectives and winning the match.  If none of those three things happen, you're better off doing the same ol' same ol'.

Personally I think slower leveling is appropriate for pvp xp, especially in a tiered system like they have.

They've got all those tiered gear rewards to unlock, which takes some time, and you want to be able to stay at level x9 long enough to feel like the top dog for a little while before you get pushed into the next tier as a scrub again.

This is coming from someone who parked all his characters at 19 and 29 for months at a time, so maybe I'm just crazy. but then again maybe that's a representative attitude from the kind of people who play WoW as primarily a PvP game.

[edit:capitalized]

[schild]

Yes, they added Xp in the battlegrounds.  The problem is it's still much, much quicker to quest or mob grind.  Particularly with the 2 heirloom items that give 10% bonuses to all xp gains.  To get decent Xp in a battleground you have to be constantly churning kills, capping objectives and winning the match.  If none of those three things happen, you're better off doing the same ol' same ol'.

personally i think slower leveling is appropriate for pvp xp, especially in a tiered system like they have.

they've got all those tiered gear rewards to unlock, which takes some time, and you want to be able to stay at level x9 long enough to feel like the top dog for a little while before you get pushed into the next tier as a scrub again.

this is coming from someone who parked all his characters at 19 and 29 for months at a time, so maybe i'm just crazy. but then again maybe that's a representative attitude from the kind of people who want to avoid wow pve. 

[Hawkbit]

He's too busy rockin' the sure shot.