Blizzards New MMO

[DLRiley]

Blizzard has no reason or incentives to deviate from the diku model consider the flaming car wrecks recent attempts at "pvp done right" has been. My guess is that they finally figure out that the first M in Mass Multiplier Online Game is overrated and develop a game from there.

[Malakili]

At least, I won't be playing MMO's anymore.  No clue what ya'll are gonna be doing.

I'll almost certainly be playing both. 

[Ghambit]

Blizzard buying an IP license is a massive waste of money for them and will never happen. Their own brand is all the name recognition they need for marketing. And I strongly suspect they don't want their creativity stifled by somebody else telling them what or what not they can do in their game worlds.

Developing a fresh IP totally from scratch is a helluva lot more expensive than franchising one, along with the proprietary tech to make it.  Blizz. has the money though, so they can do that.  Their intentions as they say were to "revolutionize the genre."  That doesnt come cheaply, and most who have tried have failed and gone bust.

Note:  WoW was not revolutionary in the slightest, it was just well executed.  This new project of Blizz's, if you believe what they're saying, looks to be something more beastly.  Although I tend to agree it'll still be mostly a ripoff of prior lore/tech.  ala every game they've made.  Who the hell knows.

[Venkman]

I have a theory.  People are focused on Blizzard's next MMO, which is, to be sure, titillating.  However, I think the real cannibalism to the WoW player base is going to come via Diablo 3.  I think games like Diablo 3, that have all the trappings off MMO's with less of the (first) 'M' are the future.  As WoW's player base ages, 5 hours Ulduar runs will hold less appeal on the main.  Games like D3, with a custom tailored single player experience, and polished multiplayer endeavors without all of the bullshit will come to the fore.

This was largely the same thing we've said since before WoW, so, replace WoW with EQ2 and Diablo 3 with Diablo 2. Coincidentally, around that time some of us were predicting a looming split in the genre between the AAA subs-based core and a new audience with different expectations and preferences. And years later, that's exactly what we've got. Free Realms and Fusion Fall are somewhat in the middle technically, but really, the success has been in the outliers. WoW for the AAA subs-based veteran crowd and any number of browser-based lighter-weight persistent worlds for the kids.

When WoW has run it's course I don't think it's infeasible for some new hard-core (and yes, by comparison, WoW is hardcore) to replace it. But only for that market, whatever size that may be. WoW is big in terms of paying subscribers, but there's a lot more games with a lot more eyeballs on them (though of course monetized differently and those eyeballs aren't 1:1 to those paying money). We're already at the point where businesses don't aspire to be WoW. Maybe one or two companies are that confident in their IP. The rest go for the easier and less risky plays, and have been doing very well at it, relatively speaking.

[Murgos]

I have a theory.  People are focused on Blizzard's next MMO, which is, to be sure, titillating.  However, I think the real cannibalism to the WoW player base is going to come via Diablo 3.  I think games like Diablo 3, that have all the trappings off MMO's with less of the (first) 'M' are the future.  As WoW's player base ages, 5 hours Ulduar runs will hold less appeal on the main.

Over the last 10 years the trend has been to longer, more intensive raids.  The first 'raid' content, the plane of Hate in EQ1, was do-able in 1.5-2 hours if you were organized.

I was going to say something about the number of 'boss' mobs with good drops per run has increased since then to compensate but then I remembered that you got all the best class armor off the 'yard trash'.

[dusematic]

I have a theory.  People are focused on Blizzard's next MMO, which is, to be sure, titillating.  However, I think the real cannibalism to the WoW player base is going to come via Diablo 3.  I think games like Diablo 3, that have all the trappings off MMO's with less of the (first) 'M' are the future.  As WoW's player base ages, 5 hours Ulduar runs will hold less appeal on the main.  Games like D3, with a custom tailored single player experience, and polished multiplayer endeavors without all of the bullshit will come to the fore.

This was largely the same thing we've said since before WoW, so, replace WoW with EQ2 and Diablo 3 with Diablo 2. Coincidentally, around that time some of us were predicting a looming split in the genre between the AAA subs-based core and a new audience with different expectations and preferences. And years later, that's exactly what we've got. Free Realms and Fusion Fall are somewhat in the middle technically, but really, the success has been in the outliers. WoW for the AAA subs-based veteran crowd and any number of browser-based lighter-weight persistent worlds for the kids.

When WoW has run it's course I don't think it's infeasible for some new hard-core (and yes, by comparison, WoW is hardcore) to replace it. But only for that market, whatever size that may be. WoW is big in terms of paying subscribers, but there's a lot more games with a lot more eyeballs on them (though of course monetized differently and those eyeballs aren't 1:1 to those paying money). We're already at the point where businesses don't aspire to be WoW. Maybe one or two companies are that confident in their IP. The rest go for the easier and less risky plays, and have been doing very well at it, relatively speaking.

Yeah good point.  I mean I wasn't predicting that I'd win the Nobel or anything for that baby.  Also, I'm not talking about a giant killer, I'm just saying maybe people are focused on the next great (Blizzard) MMO leeching a lot of customers, when it might not be.  And I base that off of nothing but my own particular preferences, which I assume at least some others must share.

[Musashi]

At least, I won't be playing MMO's anymore.  No clue what ya'll are gonna be doing.

I'll almost certainly be playing both. 

You'll both be paying them 29.99 a month for the Blizzard 'Station Pass.'  So will everyone else.

[Murgos]

*waits, not so patiently, for Diablo III*

What really hurts is that knowing Blizzards track record D3 is at least 2 years away.

[Ghambit]

It's possible Blizz may get caught outside the Singularity with this title, as will Bioware with SWOR and anyone else with a publishing date beyond 2 years from now.  The way tech. is currently changing, there may not be much demand left for dusty old-tech PC titles.

If we follow Moore's Law, it's obvious that unless dev-cycles trim down they'll get left behind (they already are really).  It was okay for WoW 10 years ago, but in today's world it's not.  And in tomorrow's world even more-so.

[calapine]

It's possible Blizz may get caught outside the Singularity with this title, as will Bioware with SWOR and anyone else with a publishing date beyond 2 years from now.  The way tech. is currently changing, there may not be much demand left for dusty old-tech PC titles.

If we follow Moore's Law, it's obvious that unless dev-cycles trim down they'll get left behind (they already are really).  It was okay for WoW 10 years ago, but in today's world it's not.  And in tomorrow's world even more-so.

Well, Moore's Law might continue but 2 years into the future the average PC user will still use systems from 3 years ago.
Blizzard isn't immune to failure, yes, but I doub't it's comeing from that angle.

[Ghambit]

It's possible Blizz may get caught outside the Singularity with this title, as will Bioware with SWOR and anyone else with a publishing date beyond 2 years from now.  The way tech. is currently changing, there may not be much demand left for dusty old-tech PC titles.

If we follow Moore's Law, it's obvious that unless dev-cycles trim down they'll get left behind (they already are really).  It was okay for WoW 10 years ago, but in today's world it's not.  And in tomorrow's world even more-so.

Well, Moore's Law might continue but 2 years into the future the average PC user will still use systems from 3 years ago.
Blizzard isn't immune to failure, yes, but I doub't it's comeing from that angle.

I'm more coming from the Singularity rather than Moore's Law.  Moore's Law simply focuses on processing power/speed; from this angle we agree.  BUT, from the angle of what types of I/O devices people are using to entertain themselves, the tech. is more likely to leave some studios behind.  The market will have shifted to something more modern (better consoles, portable gaming, augmented reality, etc.), and MMO devs will have to try their best to stay close to the curve.  Right now it seems they're content with just making their games playable on Consoles.  But, if they dont make their dev-cycles shorter and their games cheaper to make, they will die.  The Creativity aspect I suspect will help keep some groundbreaking titles afloat, but the money-hole will swallow many others.

[tmp]

If we follow Moore's Law

No reason to when the consumers don't.

(WoW didn't chase the bleeding edge, they aimed at the average machine awailable at typical household. This didn't change much)

[pxib]

Indeed. Plus the current economic environment is going to bite into people's computer-replacement budgets.

More importantly, when it comes to bang for your buck gaming enjoyment, computer technology reached diminishing returns more than a decade ago. The amount of money you spend keeping up with Moore's law is worth less and less. Staggering as graphics, AI, and group dynamics can be, it's not like people are going to abandon your game because it hasn't got enough real time dynamic foliage. There's only so much digital magic you can add before it fades into the background.

When the difference was between an Atari 2600 and the Nintendo, or a 386 and a Pentium, you were giving up a lot of pizazz to play games built for five-year-old tech. The difference between games from 2004 and games from 2009 just isn't that striking.

[UnSub]

As WoW's player base ages, 5 hours Ulduar runs will hold less appeal on the main. 

The vast majority of WoW's content is soloable, which I'd expect would carry through to any new MMO they did.

As for raids, it is being developed by those raised on EQ's raids and then who developed WoW's raids to what they are. Plus the actual proportion of players who do those extended raids is very small vs the total player population. It's not a big factor.

Diablo 3 will appeal to a slightly different market than whatever MMO they create from here on in.

[Nebu]

The vast majority of WoW's content is soloable, which I'd expect would carry through to any new MMO they did.

While this is true, none of the content that matters is soloable.  This is the essence of why I keep quitting these games. 

[Draegan]

The vast majority of WoW's content is soloable, which I'd expect would carry through to any new MMO they did.

While this is true, none of the content that matters TO ME is soloable.  This is the essence of why I keep quitting these games. 

FIFY

[Kageru]

Wow is reasonably balanced in that you can make progress through PvP, PvE Raiding, PvE teaming (badges) and even PvE solo (factions rewards). If someone comes up with a new way that limited dev resources can keep the progression oriented happy outside of the raid model I'm fairly sure WoW will implement a superior version in the next expansion.

Considering most other MMO's seem to launch with the end-game "TBD" let alone novel I'm not seeing too much challenge to this model around.

[Venkman]

The vast majority of WoW's content is soloable, which I'd expect would carry through to any new MMO they did.

While this is true, none of the content that matters is soloable.  This is the essence of why I keep quitting these games. 

The relevance of content is entirely based on whether the observer has a shot at achieving it. The shit buried twelve tiers deep in whateverzone don't matter to the folks who will never get there. Because they know their lifestyle, playstyle, and/or social circle are not compatible with getting there.

The only truly frustrated are those who used to be able to get there but are just coming to the realization their life has changed too much to ever do it again.

Everyone else is either there are an outsider and knows it.

[lamaros]

I don't know if they'll make it as much of a DIKU. I expect some reasonably significant shifts. Blizzard doesn't innovate a whole lot by creating new shit from scratch, but they do bring things together in ways that others haven't tried much before.

I expect this comes from the people making the games actually being people who play games, and thus get bored with just throwing out re-badged sequels. They'll probably move in a direction they tried with WAR3, trying to inject a whole lot of new fun stuff drawing from other genres and other MMOs, then dial it back in to something safe and fun by the final release.

Maybe I'm being overly optimistic, though.

[DLRiley]

The vast majority of WoW's content is soloable, which I'd expect would carry through to any new MMO they did.

While this is true, none of the content that matters is soloable.  This is the essence of why I keep quitting these games. 

I can further say none of the content that matters is available after the first hour of the game. Which is why I don't playing mmos longer than the free trial.

The next Blizzard mmo will be a diku. If it isn't its because someone else was successful with an incomplete version of what is probably the next generation of mmo's.

[Draegan]

I'd be willing to bet money that this will not be a DIKU.

[DLRiley]

I'd be willing to bet money that this will not be a DIKU.

I'm willing to bet that won't happen for at least 10 years.

[dusematic]

As WoW's player base ages, 5 hours Ulduar runs will hold less appeal on the main. 

The vast majority of WoW's content is soloable, which I'd expect would carry through to any new MMO they did.

As for raids, it is being developed by those raised on EQ's raids and then who developed WoW's raids to what they are. Plus the actual proportion of players who do those extended raids is very small vs the total player population. It's not a big factor.

Diablo 3 will appeal to a slightly different market than whatever MMO they create from here on in.

Decent point.  But do you think there is anything to the fact that D3 will be sort of an "MMO lite" and if so, won't that be more compelling to a lot of people than a full fledged MMO?  I guess then the counterpoint would be "yeah, but both games will be on the same platform (b.net) which will serve as a sort of retention wall."

[Nevermore]

I'd be willing to bet money that this will not be a DIKU.

I'm willing to bet that won't happen for at least 10 years.

Since this is Blizzard, these are not mutually exclusive statements.

[Mattemeo]

If we follow Moore's Law

No reason to when the consumers don't.

(WoW didn't chase the bleeding edge, they aimed at the average machine awailable at typical household. This didn't change much)

Indeed. Plus the current economic environment is going to bite into people's computer-replacement budgets.

Blizzard are in a curious and enviable position in this current economic environment. In fact, cynically speaking, this is the greatest thing that could possibly happen to them. More and more people are going to catch on to the fact that on a dollar for dollar, cent for cent time:investment return, there is no cheaper entertainment than a $15 monthly MMO subscription. I'd actually expect to see a fairly significant rise in player accounts over the next year.

[DLRiley]

$20 for tf2 says otherwise 

[Nebu]

FIFY

You need to rethink your "fix".  I've soloed four toons to the endgame in WoW only to realize that my gear is worthless compared to those that group or raid.  The token system makes this less of an issue in pvp, but WoW is hardly any kind of pvp game. 

[Musashi]

FIFY

You need to rethink your "fix".  I've soloed four toons to the endgame in WoW only to realize that my gear is worthless compared to those that group or raid.  The token system makes this less of an issue in pvp, but WoW is hardly any kind of pvp game. 

Why do you think you should be comparatively rewarded with more collaborative players in an MMO when you are willfully avoiding collaboration?  Honest question.

I get that raiding isn't for everyone.  And I'm not asking for a delineated list of reasons you don't like it.  Just why you (and lots of other people) think itemization should be handled differently than that.

[DLRiley]

FIFY

You need to rethink your "fix".  I've soloed four toons to the endgame in WoW only to realize that my gear is worthless compared to those that group or raid.  The token system makes this less of an issue in pvp, but WoW is hardly any kind of pvp game. 

Why do you think you should be comparatively rewarded with more collaborative players in an MMO when you are willfully avoiding collaboration?  Honest question.

I get that raiding isn't for everyone.  And I'm not asking for a delineated list of reasons you don't like it.  Just why you (and lots of other people) think itemization should be handled differently than that.

My guess is just like the old solo'ers vs group players debate that WoW capitalized on by making a game that can be solo'ed up until the end game, hence ending phase 1 of that debate started way back in EQ1. Phase 2 is what Starcraft mmo (or whatever they based their new mmo on) will capitalized on, whether solo players should get the same end game rewards as players in a group. My guess just like WoW did, Starcraft if it wishes to be wildly successful, will be on the side of the solo'er.

[Lantyssa]

Why do you think you should be comparatively rewarded with more collaborative players in an MMO when you are willfully avoiding collaboration?  Honest question.

I get that raiding isn't for everyone.  And I'm not asking for a delineated list of reasons you don't like it.  Just why you (and lots of other people) think itemization should be handled differently than that.

I could list a lot of reasons but ultimately, because we're paying the same $15 a month.

[Nebu]

I could list a lot of reasons but ultimately, because we're paying the same $15 a month.

Thank you.  I shouldn't be excluded from experiencing content because I have limited playtime.  I also shouldn't be forced to group with players noone else wants to play with because of my limited gaming time.  Not that I care that much about loot, but in a pve game why does it even matter that I have access to the same drops?  It's not like it affects the play of anyone else. 

My biggest reason for wanting access to content solo is to be able to see everything the game offers as a paying customer.  I don't think that is a lot to request. 

Or as I stated in the Darkfall thread...

WAR went a long way toward solving this with PQ's.  If Blizzard can find a way to encourage grouping in a more streamlined fashion while giving me the tools to come and go at will, then I'll play nice with the other kids. 

Forced grouping punishes those players that can't devote x hours to a play session.  It also punishes those players forced to play in pugs.  I'm sick of being punished in games because I have a life but enjoy the type of playing field that an MMO offers. 

[ghost]

I could list a lot of reasons but ultimately, because we're paying the same $15 a month.

Thank you.  I shouldn't be excluded from experiencing content because I have limited playtime.  I also shouldn't be forced to group with players noone else wants to play with because of my limited gaming time.  Not that I care that much about loot, but in a pve game why does it even matter that I have access to the same drops?  It's not like it affects the play of anyone else. 

My biggest reason for wanting access to content solo is to be able to see everything the game offers as a paying customer.  I don't think that is a lot to request. 

Or as I stated in the Darkfall thread...

WAR went a long way toward solving this with PQ's.  If Blizzard can find a way to encourage grouping in a more streamlined fashion while giving me the tools to come and go at will, then I'll play nice with the other kids. 

Forced grouping punishes those players that can't devote x hours to a play session.  It also punishes those players forced to play in pugs.  I'm sick of being punished in games because I have a life but enjoy the type of playing field that an MMO offers. 

This again brings up the idea of having "scaled" dungeons and areas.  If you want to team up with 50 people, have the mobs and difficulty scale for that.  If you want to run it alone have it scale for solo.  I don't know why that would be so hard.  I'm with you, I don't have time to wait for a raid every night to see all the nooks and crannies in Karazhan or whatever dungeon is the next thing. 

[Malakili]

I could list a lot of reasons but ultimately, because we're paying the same $15 a month.

Ultimately, I see this as a crap argument to be honest.  If 2 people have a gym membership, and 1 person goes every day, and the other goes twice a week, they will both get something out of it, but one person is going to get a lot more out of it than the other, yet they both pay the same fee for the membership.  Should the twice a weeker complain to the gym staff that he isn't in as good shape as the every dayer?

You could make an argument that equal time put in should = similar rewards, and that solo players don't get that.  However, that seems like an awful stretch in an online multiplayer game to complain about having to actually, you know, play multiplayer.   If the genre doesn't suit your style, play other games.   Thats fine and there is noting wrong with that.

Also for context:  I used to be a pretty regular raider in vanilla WoW and BC.  I burnt out pretty bad in BC and took the better part of a year off WoW.  I got Wrath about a month ago, leveled up to 80 and have just been doing heroic 5man content a couple times a day.  My gear is crap next to the people who even do Naxx 10 on a regular basis let alone 25, and both those raids are pretty easy.  But I don't care.  The reason you need the best gear in the game is if you are doing teh content tuned for that gear.  My gear from heroics is getting me along just fine and I'm perfectly happy playing that way. 

[DLRiley]

I could list a lot of reasons but ultimately, because we're paying the same $15 a month.

Thank you.  I shouldn't be excluded from experiencing content because I have limited playtime.  I also shouldn't be forced to group with players noone else wants to play with because of my limited gaming time.  Not that I care that much about loot, but in a pve game why does it even matter that I have access to the same drops?  It's not like it affects the play of anyone else. 

My biggest reason for wanting access to content solo is to be able to see everything the game offers as a paying customer.  I don't think that is a lot to request. 

Or as I stated in the Darkfall thread...

WAR went a long way toward solving this with PQ's.  If Blizzard can find a way to encourage grouping in a more streamlined fashion while giving me the tools to come and go at will, then I'll play nice with the other kids. 

Forced grouping punishes those players that can't devote x hours to a play session.  It also punishes those players forced to play in pugs.  I'm sick of being punished in games because I have a life but enjoy the type of playing field that an MMO offers. 

This again brings up the idea of having "scaled" dungeons and areas.  If you want to team up with 50 people, have the mobs and difficulty scale for that.  If you want to run it alone have it scale for solo.  I don't know why that would be so hard.  I'm with you, I don't have time to wait for a raid every night to see all the nooks and crannies in Karazhan or whatever dungeon is the next thing. 

Cause your dealing with a persistent world and that would only works flawlessly in a instanced dungeon. WAR PQ are actually areas in the game that can be done organically, meaning that players in the area are instantly apart of the party. The problem is there is the number of players in any given PQ designated area can fluctuate wildly. Which means the math and instances (how many people in the area at any given second/minute) checking behind scaling the difficulty of the zones isn't always easy and not always accurate. And when its not accurate either the players exploit the area, or complain about the difficulty.

Malakili again the solo'er vs group argument. Back in the day guys like you argued that players who play solo shouldn't be able to advance at any pace faster then a snail. WoW came along and made a game where you can go from 1-max solo. How many subs does WoW have again?

[WayAbvPar]

Top 3 wishes for Blizz-

Wild West
Car Wars (NOT Auto Assault!)
Shadowrun (or cyberpunk, but SR has more character archetypes)

Whatever they do, please lose DIKU. Give me skill based progression, with skill use coupled with advancements purchased with XP to advance. Give me meaningful open world PvP. Give me a robust economy. Give me unique and useful crafting. And a pony. Everyone wants a pony, right?