Enough smack talking. Make your sales prediction here.

[mutantmagnet]

~1.6 million subs in the EU/NA after a 7 month period
2.2-3.5 million subs in Asia after a 7 month period.
I don't do box sales.

[Azazel]

1.5m-2m initial box sales (by Christmas). Down to 400-500k players by June/July 2009. (Both numbers for US/Euro/AU)


Also, this:

Vector: The game will have every sign of huge success up to when WOTLK is released and will then be gutted in both new sales and subs.

[lamaros]

Box sales: Who cares.
Subs: 500k

[amiable]

If possible I would like to revise my numbers downward:

1 million boxes sold - 500,000 subs.

[Hutch]

Box sales: Who cares, but for the sake of completeness I'll guess 750k.
Subs retained: 150k after WotLK goes live.

(edit: my sub retained guess is for NA only.)

[Miasma]

Do you "who cares about box sales" people realize that the total number of subscriptions can never be greater than the box sales?  It creates an upper bound making them rather important...  Millions of dollars coming your way in sales revenue after doing nothing but spend money for years is rather nice too.

[Hutch]

Do you "who cares about box sales" people realize that the total number of subscriptions can never be greater than the box sales?  It creates an upper bound making them rather important...  Millions of dollars coming your way in sales revenue after doing nothing but spend money for years is rather nice too.

The quality of the game is going to be reflected in the subscriber retention. Does the game have something others don't? Is that "something" compelling enough to retain a large (i.e. more than 300k) subscribers? Are there really enough dedicated RvR/PvP subscribers out there to make this game a smash hit? Or is it going to end up a niche game?

The initial box sales can be driven by many things that have nothing to do with the quality of the game. Did you like the developers' past offerings? Did the developer and publisher do a good job of hyping the game? Has it been awhile since the last big thing came along? Etc.

In terms of financial success, you're right. Box sales matter. The developer and publisher are certainly going to be interested in those numbers. I'm thinking in terms of whether the game itself is going to be worthwhile, so I don't really care how many people play for the first free month. It's how many people are still playing in a year that matters to me.

[Nija]

There isn't enough to this game. I don't believe it'll keep the attention of very many players.

First month box sales: 600k

Subs after free trial month: 200k

Subs this time next year: < 200k. Wild guess, 100k.

[schild]

The majority of you are flat out wrong.

Yes, I know things.

[Wasted]

Well considering its a pretty specific question being asked and people are giving different answers its pretty safe to say that a lot of people are going to be wrong...except for those that are right. 

I don't think the open beta went as well as they must have hoped, and on playing it a bit now don't think its going to reach the heights many people are predicting here.  If they get their 500k subs I think they will be very lucky.

[Cheddar]

AOC was the biggest effect on potential loss of sale.   

[Nija]

The majority of you are flat out wrong.

Yes, I know things.

Yeah, but have you been playing the game for a year like I have?\

[schild]

The majority of you are flat out wrong.

Yes, I know things.

Yeah, but have you been playing the game for a year like I have?\

What does playing a game for a year have to do knowing things? You hate everything.

[Miasma]

Even though my estimates were higher than average I'm starting to think that if enough WoW people stick with the game it might achieve a critical mass and continue to increase its subscription numbers as time goes on instead of losing them.  That's a big if though.  It primarily centres around whether or not people enjoy the RvR I think.  I'm not a big PvP guy and even I really enjoy the RvR in this game.  That's not necessarily a good thing though, I like it because there are no consequences and you immediately get back up and into the fight like an FPS, more "hardcore" PvP players probably loathe what I enjoy here.

I've already noticed a serious problem with the scenarios though.  Last night if you joined solo you would get destroyed four times out of five because you were matched against full guild groups with vent who could actually plan.  We lost a scenario 500-3 last night, I shit you not, 500-3.  It was a stunning loss.  Our side had a lot lower levels but still FIVE HUNDRED TO THREE.

[Falconeer]

From my omnipresent useless predictions thread.

Please bear in mìind that all predictions were cast in January 2007, that is 20 months ago.

Bets for December 2008:

Warhammer Online

Angry.bob: 5 millions
Shapechanger: 3,5 millions
Datagod: 1,8 millions
Modern Angel: 1,5 millions
Darniaq: 1.5 millions
Trouble: 1,5 millions
Arthur Parker: 1 million
Falconeer: 1 million
Riggswolfe: 1 million
Evangolis: 930k
Simond: 750k
Sairon: 700k
Damijin: 650k
Soln: 500k
Comstar: 450k
Eldaec: 350k
Waylander: 350k
HaemishM: 350k
WindUpAtheist: 325k
HRose: 300k
Strazos: 236k
Unsub: 190k
Lantyssa: 175k
Stray: 150k
Xuri: 150k
Cheddar: 45k

[amiable]

Even though my estimates were higher than average I'm starting to think that if enough WoW people stick with the game it might achieve a critical mass and continue to increase its subscription numbers as time goes on instead of losing them.  That's a big if though.  It primarily centres around whether or not people enjoy the RvR I think.  I'm not a big PvP guy and even I really enjoy the RvR in this game.  That's not necessarily a good thing though, I like it because there are no consequences and you immediately get back up and into the fight like an FPS, more "hardcore" PvP players probably loathe what I enjoy here.

I've already noticed a serious problem with the scenarios though.  Last night if you joined solo you would get destroyed four times out of five because you were matched against full guild groups with vent who could actually plan.  We lost a scenario 500-3 last night, I shit you not, 500-3.  It was a stunning loss.  Our side had a lot lower levels but still FIVE HUNDRED TO THREE.

This will hopefully change as the uber-guilds level out of the Tier 1 bracket, so you should see a lot more pugs...  At max level, yes, you will get steamrolled in scenarios unless you are part of an organized group.  But thats what world PvP is for!

[schild]

Even though my estimates were higher than average I'm starting to think that if enough WoW people stick with the game it might achieve a critical mass and continue to increase its subscription numbers as time goes on instead of losing them.  That's a big if though.  It primarily centres around whether or not people enjoy the RvR I think.  I'm not a big PvP guy and even I really enjoy the RvR in this game.  That's not necessarily a good thing though, I like it because there are no consequences and you immediately get back up and into the fight like an FPS, more "hardcore" PvP players probably loathe what I enjoy here.

I've already noticed a serious problem with the scenarios though.  Last night if you joined solo you would get destroyed four times out of five because you were matched against full guild groups with vent who could actually plan.  We lost a scenario 500-3 last night, I shit you not, 500-3.  It was a stunning loss.  Our side had a lot lower levels but still FIVE HUNDRED TO THREE.

f13 lost once about 500 to 73. We got steamrolled by level 11s. Our same group - which was between 5 and 8 won against a bunch of 9s and 10s about 5 times in a row after that. We handily gave them their ass on a platter. It was good fun though as they were decently organized. We were just completely on the ball with focus fire.

Also, yes, pretty much every major guild came to WAR. Which made server decisions a nightmare.

[Draegan]

There is also more guild organization when you only have CE people playing.  Wait until the unwashed savages get in, then you'll have some fun.

[fuser]

Press release

WAR set a company record for the most retail pre-orders placed by consumers for a PC title in EA’s 26 year history. Overall, the company has sold 1.5 million units of WAR to retailers.

[Falconeer]

Is it me or it speaks about a record in preorders but doesn't give that number away, and shifts to "boxes sold to retailers", which is completely different?

[Draegan]

Does it matter though?  Their record could be 300k from DAOC for all I know.

[rattran]

Hopefully it won't end up like AoC, here the local bestbuy has a whole shelf of boxes that have been sitting there for ages. Old Fat one, small Clamshell ones, even a few CE boxes.

Sold to Retailers does not equal Sold Retail

[tazelbain]

Ya, but it's good sign.  Wasn't AoC's prelaunch to retailer number 700k?

[Nebu]

Sold to Retailers does not equal Sold Retail

What's the difference really?  I'd guess it's a difference in potential subscribers and in profit margins being lower than selling direct.  Still, you have to be happy about selling 1.5 million boxes of anything to anyone, don't you? 

[rattran]

Except for Retailer Returns. If the retailers don't move the boxes, you get them back.

[Njal]

Box sales for 2 months 1.5 mill
Subs 800k

[tazelbain]

How do returns work.  I have seen stuff sit on the self forever.

[Nebu]

Except for Retailer Returns. If the retailers don't move the boxes, you get them back.

If this is the case, then you're not really "selling" the boxes to the retailers, are you?  Sounds like consignment of sorts, not a box sale. 

Is this really how it works?  Do game makers just rent shelf space?  How odd.

[Cyrrex]

That's how a LOT of retail stuff works.  It will undoubtedly depend on the deal between manufacturer and retailer, but chances are that the risk is primarily with the manufacturer.  Even if they can't now, I'd wager Best Buy would eventually be able to return all their AoC boxes.

[Ingmar]

I don't think it works *exactly* like that, or our local Fry's wouldn't have had TA: Kingdoms on sale for 1 cent for like 8 years.

[waylander]

First 60 days:

1.5 million sales
1 million subs

People are sick to death in WoW and want more meaningful PVP than stupid BG's that don't mean anything or l33t arena kings who's gear is 90% of their skill.

Warhammer provides the right alternative at the right time.

[Lakov_Sanite]

First 60 days:

1.5 million sales
1 million subs

People are sick to death in diku-clones and want more meaningful RvR than stupid scenario's that don't mean anything or l33t RvR kings who's gear is 90% of their skill.

Game TBA provides the right alternative at the right time.

fixed it for you, warhammer is gonna be fun but different? it ain't.

[LC]

Nija read my mind.

[HaemishM]

You know what, having played the beta, I'm going to change my prediction. I'd say 750k box sales and 400k subs.

[Mrbloodworth]

Honestly, after that patch in the OB, i think i will need to raise mine as well, i was impressed by how much they were able to turn around.