EA Mythic: $1 Billion Not Needed to Compete with WoW

[schild]

The Sims was the most profitable game before WoW, and it was NOT by any means popular among GAMERS.

I submit that the most popular games among GAMERS is not always the most profitable. WoW might, in fact, be an oddity. The only ones that were massively profitable and MASSIVELY popular before it were uhhh I don't know, Tetris and SMB3.

Edit: I should've added gamers in my first response. My bad.

[Ratman_tf]

The Sims was the most profitable game before WoW, and it was NOT by any means popular among GAMERS.

I submit that the most popular games among GAMERS is not always the most profitable. WoW might, in fact, be an oddity. The only ones that were massively profitable and MASSIVELY popular before it were uhhh I don't know, Tetris and SMB3.

I agree. And I think that developers trying to be the next WoW by making diku MMORPGs are missing what makes WoW (And the Sims franchise, etc...) popular among gamers. (And note I do not put gamers in all caps to differentiate them from GAMERS)

[Trippy]

If you are looking at franchises Mario has sold 200 million copies and those are gamer games. Pokemon is next at 180 million.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_best-selling_video_game_franchises

[Azazel]

It's not going to be a challenger to WoW.

But I started saying this because Mark Jacobs thinks he's challenging WoW :) From the original post: "Realistically, if you're going into this space for the first time, and you want to compete with 'WoW' and you want to compete with us -- because we're going into that same space -- you've got to make sure that you have at least 100 million dollars."

Sure, but all i was suggesting was that he's probably overstating the effect of the great masses of Warhammer players that will flock to this. I think there will be a fair few, but challenging WoW.. um.. no.

Also, shit, double-check math before you post it.  I'm embarassed that I had to run back and edit my last post just to catch a fuckup that obvious.

Ingmar did a good job of replying to your points. D&D was a clusterfuck, and Star Wars and LotR aren't great MMO-gaming IPs. You can't be Legolas or Han Solo, after all. As for the maths, it was late and my wife was nagging me to turn the computer off and come to sleep. But yeah, poor form I agree.

[quote author=Darniaq link=topic=14315.msg507606#msg507606 date=1220789079
What are people buying in Europe buying though vs what is actually being delivered in WAR? Oh, wait, "An immersive extension of an extremely-popular IP". Where is the gameplay this mythically huge audience is looking for in an MMO? That's always the risk of tapping a game IP for extension into a different genre.

Totally agree, and this is what I mean when I say that IP is irrelevant. (Or at least, not all it's made out to be.)
Our favorite whipping boy, SWG, proved this in spades. You just can't "Sell shit in a box marked "Star Wars" ", and get away with it for long.
[/quote]

Darniaq. I think they'll sell boxes, especially in Europe based on the IP and hard push it's getting from GW. Retention, not so much, and I've said as much in the "predict WAR" thread.
Ratman. You're aware that they're still happily selling shit in those particular boxes you're talking about?

To be fair, if they are Warhammer fans, they empty their wallets at the altar of codexes, new miniatures and tiny pots of overpriced paint. Which leaves no money for a WAR subscription. 

Joking aside, that's the main reason I think it will sell a shitload of boxes. A computer game doesn't cost much when compared to the costs of playing Warhammer.
The Warhammer fanboys ON TOP of the PVP guys and the "try every new MMO" guys and the ones who are sick of WoW (and maybe Conan now, too). They've done a pretty good job of marketing it to the MMO-crowd. I think retention is where they will hurt.

The fact that I've played various forms of Warhammer for 19 years and various forms of Everquest (this includes WoW) for 9 years yet could not be bothered to log into beta most of the time says more about my opinion of the actual game than any essay I could write. But I think it'll do well in box sales. WotLK will hurt or cripple WAR though.

I think it will be the Chinese gamers who will really take this genre out of the stone ages. It definitely won't be Warhammer nerds though lol @ that.

So you possibly live in Asia, which is great for you. You have also completely misinterpreted my posts. lol @ ur reading comprehension. also lol @ ur internet.bad.assery. 

[Venkman]

I think it will be the Chinese gamers who will really take this genre out of the stone ages.

[quote="Schild wrote"WoW is the single most profitable and popular game in the history of gaming.

How are these two not related? 

Seriously though: Chinese gamers "starting" to get interested? Last I read they make up half the total MMO population worldwide themselves. You don't need a home computer to play an MMO.

You must not realize how that is a small chunk of Chinese gamers and is nothing compared to the legions that will someday be playing.
[/quote]
You must not realize I was effectively agreeing with you when I said they make up (implied: by themselves) half the world's MMO playerbase already.

Anyone not making games for Chinese players is either a small company that hasn't found the right domestic partners, or are entrenched in finishing their existing games for their existing markets. Everyone else knows where the real worldwide growth is going to come from and is scrambling to get there, both as a business and with games that appeal to those cultures.

We haven't tapped out the Western markets yet because we keep feeding the same playerbase the same stuff. WoW gave us a nice bump but it merely invited people to the games the niche market was already playing. It just did so with polish and IP recognition, but the underlying addictive grind has proven to have far larger appeal and retention than the EQ1-is-king days. Regardless of that though, it's easier to believe China is a "virgin" market where it becomes easier to get double and triple digit growth while over here I would be hard pressed to find anyone who would believe that. So that's where a lot of attention is going.

[Ratman_tf]

Ratman. You're aware that they're still happily selling shit in those particular boxes you're talking about?

Sure. But it was hardly a runaway success. (Which some may think such an IP might be.)

[cevik]

Maybe I'm way off base here, but I keep hearing that Warhammer is HUGE, but, surely it's not got nearly the following that D&D has, and look out D&D Online sold.

Am I missing something?  I've always known about Warhammer, but I've rarely run into someone with the cash to play it.  It just doesn't seem that "huge" to me, perhaps my personal experience is way out of line with reality (like normal).

EDIT:  In addition, D&D is practically tailor made for a MMOG, the very idea revolves around a little group of adventurers going out on an adventure in a world where there are thousands of little groups of adventurers going out on adventures everyday.  Warhammer Online is in no way played like Warhammer, Warhammer Online simply takes the IP from Warhammer and tries to make it into a "you play the hero" game, which is the antithesis of Warhammer.

[Abelian75]

I consider D&D more of a system than a setting, though.  The latter makes for a much more interesting cross-medium IP, imho.

Like, what makes it a D&D game?  Having Constitution?

[HaemishM]

Warhammer is fairly huge among those who play with toy soldiers like me... which is why an MMORPG always seemed strange to me. The Warhammer RPG is not nearly as popular. Warhammer has more popularity amongst grognards than amongst the kind of people that you think of as the core MMOG audience. Probably half of the miniature wargaming guys I know laugh derisively at the idea of playing MMOG's.

[cevik]

I consider D&D more of a system than a setting, though.  The latter makes for a much more interesting cross-medium IP, imho.

Like, what makes it a D&D game?  Having Constitution?

Eh, I'd wager that a vast majority of the D&D players use both the system and the settings provided by TSR WotC rather than create their own.  Forgotten Realms, Dragonlance, Ravenloft, Planescape.. I have at least a limited knowledge of each of those settings.  I have much less of a understanding of Eberron, as it's a bit after my time, but even then my wife and I nearly purchased D&D online (despite the reviews) simply because it was.. well.. D&D.. online.

For every 10 people I know of that played D&D regularly, I can think of maybe 1 person that played Warhammer even once.  But again, that's my personal experience and not likely the majority experience.  But my personal experience leads me to think that the number of D&D fans has to dwarf the number of Warhammer fans, simply because the barrier to entry of Warhammer is so much greater than D&D.

[schild]

If you are looking at franchises Mario has sold 200 million copies and those are gamer games. Pokemon is next at 180 million.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_best-selling_video_game_franchises

Wasn't really looking at franchises.

[Oz]

surely it's not got nearly the following that D&D has, and look out D&D Online sold.

I think they suicided DDO by using the Eberron IP.  that's why i never played.  Just imagine how many subs they could have gotten if they had used Dragonlance or Forgotten Realms instead.  Hell i even bet ravenloft, grey hawk, or dark sun would have done better then hokie Eberron, which as a D&D player since 1988 seems odd to me.  (haven't played in a long time, late 90's)

[Ingmar]

surely it's not got nearly the following that D&D has, and look out D&D Online sold.

I think they suicided DDO by using the Eberron IP.  that's why i never played.  Just imagine how many subs they could have gotten if they had used Dragonlance or Forgotten Realms instead.  Hell i even bet ravenloft, grey hawk, or dark sun would have done better then hokie Eberron, which as a D&D player since 1988 seems odd to me.  (haven't played in a long time, late 90's)

They didn't do a good job of selling Eberron in DDO. I think the setting could make a fantastic RPG of some kind, but DDO does nothing to set it up at all, so it just kind of becomes Generic D&D City in the Jungle. There's no central storyline or conflict to hook anyone.

Compare this to how WAR sets you up right off the bat with shit blowing up all around you, etc., and gets you right into the war. How you use what an IP gives you is at least as important as what the IP is.

[Draegan]

DDO was a bad game.  That's why it failed.

[Ingmar]

DDO was a bad game.  That's why it failed.

I disagree - if you have the right setup of people who play together all the time and you enjoy the 'going into dungeons' part of MMOs, the game is really a lot of fun. That said it is an *incredibly* niche game. The problem is it just isn't what most people want out of an MMO. There's nothing to do solo, not really, even after they allegedly patched it in. It is like the central grouping experience that all MMOs have, distilled down to the point where that's *all* there is. Then you add the fact that it has twitchy combat for some reason, despite being built on a solidly turn-based game system, and you have all the ingredients for niche.

[cevik]

DDO was a bad game.  That's why it failed.

Right, this is exactly my point.  I keep hearing "It doesn't matter if WAR sucks, the Warhammer IP is HUGE IN EUROPE."

My point is:  DDO sold like crap and I believe the D&D IP is much more popular than the Warhammer IP.

[Oz]

DDO sold like crap and I believe the D&D IP is much more popular than the Warhammer IP

I get what your saying and i agree that the game mechanics were meh at best.  However, i still say that the facet of teh D&D IP they used was shit.  If they had gone with a familiar/better IP version they would have sold better.  Not necessarily been successful but would have done a fuckton better then they did.

Dragonlance/Forgotten Realms (D&D) ≥ Warhammer >>>>> Eberron (D&D)  type shit.  (don't take this ordering litteral, its just a shitty example of my point)

[cevik]

Dragonlance/Forgotten Realms (D&D) ≥ Warhammer >>>>> Eberron (D&D)  type shit.  (don't take this ordering litteral, its just a shitty example of my point)

I feel like I'm talking in circles here, so this is the last time I'll say it, but at least DDO actually plays the same as D&D, even if the setting was the new world (which I bet more people have played 3rd edition D&D than have ever played Warhammer), at least the game remained fundamentally the same.

I still think they are taking what I imagine to be a much smaller (in terms of playerbase) IP and making it play nothing like the original game at all, and everyone is saying that the quality doesn't matter because the IP is huge in Europe.  When we've seen that IP, no matter how huge, has rarely pushed any mmogs out the door.

[Wershlak]

DDO was a bad game.  That's why it failed.

Right, this is exactly my point.  I keep hearing "It doesn't matter if WAR sucks, the Warhammer IP is HUGE IN EUROPE."

My point is:  DDO sold like crap and I believe the D&D IP is much more popular than the Warhammer IP.

Right, and Star Wars is more popular than both. All three IPs are probably more popular than the Warcraft IP. There is no correlation between a popular IP and a popular MMO. There is a correlation between a crappy, bug ridden, incomplete came and an unsuccessful MMO though.

[Ingmar]

DDO was a bad game.  That's why it failed.

Right, this is exactly my point.  I keep hearing "It doesn't matter if WAR sucks, the Warhammer IP is HUGE IN EUROPE."

My point is:  DDO sold like crap and I believe the D&D IP is much more popular than the Warhammer IP.

Right, and Star Wars is more popular than both. All three IPs are probably more popular than the Warcraft IP. There is no correlation between a popular IP and a popular MMO. There is a correlation between a crappy, bug ridden, incomplete came and an unsuccessful MMO though.

You're wrong about the Warcraft IP's popularity. Warcraft 3 sold millions of copies, and I would bet good money that a majority of those people never played multiplayer even once. They bought it because they like Blizzard's RTS story campaigns.

[Fordel]

My Fucking Warforged DROWNED in DDO. I will forever hate the game because of that.


I'm more closely related to a toaster oven then DDO was to Eberron.

[Trippy]

If you are looking at franchises Mario has sold 200 million copies and those are gamer games. Pokemon is next at 180 million.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_best-selling_video_game_franchises

Wasn't really looking at franchises.

Except that The Sims is a franchise, as in 100 million covers both The Sims and The Sims 2.

[Venkman]

Also, The Sims is the most profitable probably only when you average the operating profit across the entire line. WoW is most profitable when you do the same across all of the monthly fees collected since launch.

It'd be a more accurate comparison to restrict comparison to just the first edition box sales for both titles. And to compare to Mario, you'd only be allowed to count Donkey Kong for the Atari 2600 and Collecovision 

[Hawkbit]

DDO was a bad game.  That's why it failed.

Although, if they went Forgotten Realms instead of whatever other one they did, I would have bought the game on the IP alone.  Probably played it way too long, too.  I love me some FR lore.

[Lakov_Sanite]

DDO was a bad game.  That's why it failed.

Although, if they went Forgotten Realms instead of whatever other one they did, I would have bought the game on the IP alone.  Probably played it way too long, too.  I love me some FR lore.

Drizzt loving queer

[Hawkbit]

Drizzt loving queer

Actually, I never got into the whole Drizzt stuff (sadly, I *did* like the cleric quintet).  I could buy the latest FR campaign manual and read for days though.  Crazy campaigns we had like running thieves guilds out of Westgate and that odd gnome that had an AC of like 26 or something that was all covered in obsidian black spiked armor.  There was so much stuff that was in the game that we never used, but so much of it was cool as hell.  Never even came close to seeing Drizzt at any point.  The illithid that ran the Night Masks in Westgate, that's a different story, that bastard.

[Lakov_Sanite]

Joking aside though I played the forgotten realms campaign setting for years, loved it and yes i would have also bought DDO in a heartbeat if it was FR

[UnSub]

DDO was a bad game.  That's why it failed.

Right, this is exactly my point.  I keep hearing "It doesn't matter if WAR sucks, the Warhammer IP is HUGE IN EUROPE."

My point is:  DDO sold like crap and I believe the D&D IP is much more popular than the Warhammer IP.

Right, and Star Wars is more popular than both. All three IPs are probably more popular than the Warcraft IP. There is no correlation between a popular IP and a popular MMO. There is a correlation between a crappy, bug ridden, incomplete came and an unsuccessful MMO though.

You're wrong about the Warcraft IP's popularity. Warcraft 3 sold millions of copies, and I would bet good money that a majority of those people never played multiplayer even once. They bought it because they like Blizzard's RTS story campaigns.

Is the bolded part an argument for or against the Warcraft IP being instrumental in WoW's success?

Rather than going around in circles, can we agree that IPs might attract some attention, but it is the quality of the overall title on release that ends up drawing players in?

To use marketing speak, WoW was a brand variant for Blizzard that paid off - they spread their RTS brand into the MMO category. However, the initial recognition of Warcraft would have meant nothing if Blizzard had provided an Anarchy Online-quality launch. Also, WoW gameplay does fit relatively nicely with the 'feel' of the Warcraft RTS (fast combat, fantasy setting) whereas SWG didn't really fit the 'feel' of Star Wars (SWG had no stars and no wars on release but allowed you to be a hairdresser).

SWG could have been a lot more successful on launch if it had 'felt' like people want Star Wars to feel - 90% of people probably wanted to be Jedi and use magic the Force, or fly space ships, not wander around a desert city, crafting pistols or dancing in cantinas.

Yes, all threads about MMO failure are actually SWG threads.

EDIT: oh, right, WAR. WAR's IP means nothing to most MMO players. It might draw in some Warhammer fans to try it out, but the reality is that it gave Mythic an easy framework / existing lore to work with that fit neatly with their previous experience of RvR (Order vs Chaos Destruction). It's Mythic's reputation (and that everyone wants to play the Next Big Thing) that is doing more to get MMO players enthused about the title.

Actually, the reality is that WAR is likely to do more for the Warhammer IP than the other way around. It becomes a great advertisement for Games Workshop products, especially if they can leverage the MMO players into buying miniatures.

[Wasted]

Joking aside though I played the forgotten realms campaign setting for years, loved it and yes i would have also bought DDO in a heartbeat if it was FR

That they made a MMO and completely ignored the gaming legacy of the silver/gold box series, baldurs gate and neverwinter nights is what made the game fail.  It should have started as FR, introduced planescape as the first expansion and added each game setting incrementally after that.

Instead they targeted the tabletop players rather than the gamers.

War seems a mmo game first inspired by the IP, targetting mmo players and not trying to please the demographic of tabletop players least likely to purchase a mmo.

[Azazel]

Ratman. You're aware that they're still happily selling shit in those particular boxes you're talking about?

Sure. But it was hardly a runaway success. (Which some may think such an IP might be.)

Agreed. If it were a good game instead of shite, it could have been amazing. But it's also a merchandising franchise rather than a gaming-oriented franchise. Warhammer is totally gaming-centred franchise. Star Wars fans aren't necessarily trained to buy games. Warhammer fans are. I think this will help the initial box sales a great deal, but again, not necessarily translate to ongoing subs.

For every 10 people I know of that played D&D regularly, I can think of maybe 1 person that played Warhammer even once.  But again, that's my personal experience and not likely the majority experience.  But my personal experience leads me to think that the number of D&D fans has to dwarf the number of Warhammer fans, simply because the barrier to entry of Warhammer is so much greater than D&D.

As a Warhammer guy and also a general PNP roleplaying guy, I agree with you in terms of number of fans and barriers to entry. The key difference is actually related to that last point. A lot of the roleplayers I played with and have known over the years are so tight with their money, I can't figure out how they manage to take a shit. Of course, the counterpoint is always the guy we all know who has every module and expansion ever released for every system under the sun. But the Warhammer players, on the other hand. Well, buying a boxed computer game with "Warhammer" slapped on the front will cost them about the same as one plastic Dreadnought model. And they probably already have three dreads.

Unlike the D&D player, who doesn't necessarily need to spend anything to play, the Warhammer player does, and is used to the "upkeep" of new troops, more troops, new codexes and army books and boxed regiments. they're conditioned to be used to the spending.

EDIT: oh, right, WAR. WAR's IP means nothing to most MMO players. It might draw in some Warhammer fans to try it out, but the reality is that it gave Mythic an easy framework / existing lore to work with that fit neatly with their previous experience of RvR (Order vs Chaos Destruction). It's Mythic's reputation (and that everyone wants to play the Next Big Thing) that is doing more to get MMO players enthused about the title.

I'm not talking about the existing MMO players. I've been talking all along about how I think the Warhammer fans will come and try it out in pretty good numbers. I'm not saying they'll stick around. I think Jacobs thinks the same thing, but his glasses are far more rose-coloured than mine are.

I think they'll try it. Not sure if they'll like it. I wasn't especially impressed.

[UnsGub]

Warhammer Online is in no way played like Warhammer, Warhammer Online simply takes the IP from Warhammer and tries to make it into a "you play the hero" game, which is the antithesis of Warhammer.

The RvR will be exactly like Warhammer.  Basically a RTS, but without central command and communication, the same as Planetside.  Many players relate to one of the many figures on the board as they play the game.   Warhammer has many heroes built into their story.  They many not be well rounded or complete but they are a hero (special unit) to the side they fight on.  MMOs are getting away from "you play the hero" as it is difficult to do and just default to humanities haves and have not's.

[Mrbloodworth]

Warhammer Online is in no way played like Warhammer, Warhammer Online simply takes the IP from Warhammer and tries to make it into a "you play the hero" game, which is the antithesis of Warhammer.

The RvR will be exactly like Warhammer.  Basically a RTS, but without central command and communication, the same as Planetside.  Many players relate to one of the many figures on the board as they play the game.   Warhammer has many heroes built into their story.  They many not be well rounded or complete but they are a hero (special unit) to the side they fight on.  MMOs are getting away from "you play the hero" as it is difficult to do and just default to humanities haves and have not's.

Is that why every one looks the same?



 

[Ingmar]

You're wrong about the Warcraft IP's popularity. Warcraft 3 sold millions of copies, and I would bet good money that a majority of those people never played multiplayer even once. They bought it because they like Blizzard's RTS story campaigns.

Is the bolded part an argument for or against the Warcraft IP being instrumental in WoW's success?

For. Let me clarify my point. If you aren't buying the game for multiplayer RTS deathmatch whatever, you are buying it because you like single player RTS story campaigns. That's all about the IP.

I definitely agree that the Warhammer brand isn't going to do anything special on its own to draw in players before they try the game; my point has been that if presented well (which I think it is) the IP has significant positive value in keeping people interested once they get there. I think people in general really underrate how important the flavor of a game is to its success. It is certainly why EQ always left me flat - the game world is completely generic. It is elves and dwarves paint-by-numbers, whereas Warhammer is like one of those gruesome medieval Albrecht Dürer woodcuts by comparison.

[UnsGub]

Is that why every one looks the same?

All games have a limited look.  Spore could be the exception but it still easy to distinguish a Spore verse non-Spore look.  Character name and the player behind it provide the uniqueness.

[Mrbloodworth]

Is that why every one looks the same?

All games have a limited look.  Spore could be the exception but it still easy to distinguish a Spore verse non-Spore look.  Character name and the player behind it provide the uniqueness.