2008 College Football

[Paelos]

Where's this week's upset specials?

I was on the road at GA/FL, and as you can expect it was very ugly. I was gone by the 4th quarter. It's Florida's SEC championship to lose now in my book. Florida has Vandy and SC left, which are both going to be curbstompings. Bama still has LSU, Miss St., and Auburn left, with the defining game of the their SEC championship hopes resting on the LSU game. If Bama wins next week, it'll be Alabama v. Florida in the conference title game. Out of the two, I think Florida is playing better football right now, but we'll see how it plays out.

Georgia will most likely go to the Outback bowl now, but we don't deserve anything better. Our team has absolutely nothing going on in the trenches on either side of the ball. We don't blitz, and we can't block with the 4th starters in there. So, I'm basically done worrying about Georgia's chances anymore. As for the rest of the league, Texas getting hit hard sucks. Now it's almost assured that Penn State will get in the title game, and they are worthless.

[SnakeCharmer]

Texas Tech leapfrogged Penn State in the polls      What the hell?  Texas only dropping 3 spots to 4, and Texas Tech jumping 6 spots?  I'd put Florida over Texas and Texas Tech even with a loss.  Maybe that's the SEC homer in me coming out, but UF has really turned it on. 

My anxiety level for the next 4 weeks is going to be through the ROOF.

Oddly enough, Bama can lose against LSU, but win out against MSU and AU and still go to the SEC championship.  Win against LSU and they go regardless of what they do against MSU and AU.  I don't want that to be a situation that happens, of course.  I am hoping that UF is peaking at the wrong time.  I'm also hoping that they really aren't that damn good and UGA and LSU are just having a bad time of it, which happens.  But man, oh man, they looked stout against UGA.  They basically followed Bama's blueprint of 'How to beat UGA':  smack Moreno in the mouth early, make Stafford and a weak offensive line beat you.  Then run, run, run, and then run the ball some more.  Moreno is talented, but one good pop to him and he's just not the same.  He gets SO amped up, and all it takes is one shot to cause him to come back down and he never recovers.

If the top three win out...Alabama versus Texas Tech just doesn't sound very sexy.  They've played each other in recent years (2006, an Alabama 13-10 victory against the same coach and the same system).  Alabama versus Penn State sounds better, but would be a thrashing.  I was really hoping for an Crimson Tide / Longhorn (or USC) championship game.  Which, I suppose could happen, especially given the media love for USC.

[Paelos]

USC's chances just became extremely remote if very few losses happen at the top. Here's how it breaks down in my book, starting top-down.

Alabama:

-Wins out, including SEC championship, and they get a guaranteed spot. This is not going to be easy at all. If I'm betting on them, I think they take one loss before the title game. LSU hates Saban and wants him to die, Auburn is ALWAYS a rumble with Alabama down in the last 6 games, and Miss St. might be the biggest mental trap game on the whole schedule. Get through all that, and you win a chance to play Florida. Not easy.
-Loses one game, not the SEC championship, and things get dicey. The Big 12 South leader would have to lose in the championship game.
-Loses the SEC Championship. They have no shot.

Texas Tech:

-Also controls their own destiny. Win out and the championship, and it's a guaranteed shot. I also think this is EXTREMELY unlikely. OU and OSU are both strong teams.
-Loses any game, and it's over. Texas Tech losing to Oklahoma creates a 3-way circle jerk for the Big 12 South title with Texas beating OU who beat TT who beat Texas. I'll explain why this shoots TT in the foot in the Texas lineup.

Penn State:

-Win or go home. Even if they do that, there are no guarantees. They have to have either a TT loss or a Bama loss. Their conference does zero to help them this year. Michigan isn't even going to a bowl game. However, their road to winning out is actually harder than Texas or USC due to the #18 ranked Mich St. opponent.

Texas:

-They play no one else of consequence, so they should win out easily. Still, to have a remote shot, OU has to beat TT. There's no other way. IF that happens, then if TT loses to OSU, or if OU loses to OSU, Texas is the Big 12 South champion. If TT wins the rest, it's the circle jerk again. At that point, the Big 12 has a laundry list of criteria, but with all of them losing to each other in the same division with the exact same records, it would actually come down to which team was ranked higher by the USA Today Coaches poll as of season completion. That actually favors OU because they are ahead in the coaches poll 4th to Texas 7th. A win against TT means they move up, which I think shuts the door on Texas.

Florida:

-Must win out. Must win the SEC title CONVINCINGLY. Any tight game would shoot their chances in the foot. They also have a trap game in FSU as their last rivalry game. However, that's the only really big test left. Also, the Big 12 South champion would have to have at least one loss, and either lose the Big 12 championship to the North and/or look very shitty in a win.

OU:

-Must beat TT and OSU. At that point, the circle jerk occurs, which favors OU due to their placement in the Coaches poll. Any loss kills them. Also, they obviously have to win the Championship game. If that all happens, they need Penn State to lose and Alabama to beat Florida, or they need Alabama to lose to Florida in a shitty game while they destroy their Big 12 opponent and emerge as the polling powerhouse.

USC:

-Obviously, they need to win out. Cal is the only ranked opponent on that list. If they win out, they need Alabama to take a loss, and then have the SEC championship be a grinding, underwhelming, defense-fest. They also need the Big 12 circle-jerk, and then an underwhelming game, or a Big 12 North win.

[Paelos]

Holy crap, Utah! 10-0 and a definite BCS buster if they go the distance. Did I get to see that awesome game? No, because ESPN picked a useless VA Tech v. Maryland snoozer. Seriously ESPN, the ACC is as bad as it's ever been this year. Nobody wants to see them in primetime.

[SnakeCharmer]

May as well start getting ready for tomorrow:

GO BAMA

ROLL TIDE

[Abagadro]

Holy crap, Utah! 10-0 and a definite BCS buster if they go the distance. Did I get to see that awesome game? No, because ESPN picked a useless VA Tech v. Maryland snoozer. Seriously ESPN, the ACC is as bad as it's ever been this year. Nobody wants to see them in primetime.

I did not get to see the game either, despite having season tickets, because I was 2000 miles away stuck in FEMA training. 

I think we can get there. SDSU is a walkover and BYU doesn't have the defense to stop us while we have the defense to stop them. That game is always a bit hinkey but I think the Utes have the inside track this year. The scuttlebutt is the Orange Bowl.

[Abagadro]

Yay! No undeserving Big 10 team in the title game.

[Paelos]

May as well start getting ready for tomorrow:

GO BAMA

ROLL TIDE

I am AMAZED Bama keeps winning games. It's just unreal how many screwups they seem to overcome by great play or sheer luck. I mean that game against LSU was complete shit on both sides. Every week it seems they are using up another one of their nine lives. LSU had 10 penalties, 4 INTs, and they still took that game to OT. I just don't see any foreseeable way Bama can beat Florida playing the way they do. LSU may not punish them for 3 turnovers and an insane amount of botched kicks, but Florida would run it up and never look back.

Penn State losing is just icing on the shitcake that is the Big 10 this year. Until Michigan and Wisconsin return to prominence, that conference should just be taken as seriously as Conference USA when deciding on polls.

[Abagadro]

Florida-Texas Tech would be a pretty entertaining title game.

What will be funny is when USC ends up in the title game without even winning the PAC-10. 

[SnakeCharmer]

May as well start getting ready for tomorrow:

GO BAMA

ROLL TIDE

I am AMAZED Bama keeps winning games. It's just unreal how many screwups they seem to overcome by great play or sheer luck. I mean that game against LSU was complete shit on both sides. Every week it seems they are using up another one of their nine lives. LSU had 10 penalties, 4 INTs, and they still took that game to OT. I just don't see any foreseeable way Bama can beat Florida playing the way they do. LSU may not punish them for 3 turnovers and an insane amount of botched kicks, but Florida would run it up and never look back.

It's simply a team that does what it has to do when it comes time to win the game.  The fact that they went into probably THE most hostile atmosphere in any college football game ever, faultered at times, didn't play well, but still made the plays necessary to win says more about what kind of team they are; nevermind how good they can be when they have to be.

Penn State losing is just icing on the shitcake that is the Big 10 this year. Until Michigan and Wisconsin return to prominence, that conference should just be taken as seriously as Conference USA when deciding on polls.

Hated to see Penn lose.  Was really wanting a Alabama v Penn State BCS game if it came down to it.

[Paelos]

Hated to see Penn lose.  Was really wanting a Alabama v Penn State BCS game if it came down to it.

I'm hoping because it would be an absolute slaughter in favor of Alabama against "Cupcake Big 10 Champ." Personally, Penn State was the LAST team I'd ever want to see in a national title game. Any combination of Alabama, Texas, TT, OU, and Florida would all be better matchups and a more competative game. The only sleeper crap team in there now is USC. I'll actually be rooting for Notre Dame when they play the Trojans in 2 weeks.

[Abagadro]

Hmmm, conventional wisdom seems to be shaping up that Utah (if it wins out its next 2 games) will play the loser of the SEC championship game in the Sugar Bowl.  A Utah/Florida match-up would certainly be intriguing with the Urban Meyer connection although I think the Utes would take a royal beating.  Utah/Bama would be fun too.

[Paelos]

Weak WEAK games this week, but I'll still toss out some games that will be worth watching. I don't think there are any real upsets, but there are some potentials because of rivalry.

South Carolina v. Florida: Spurrier wants to win this game badly, and Florida needs to win this game to get a national title shot. I think SC gives them a run for their money early, but they tire late and come up short. Still, Florida doesn't cover the spread.

Cal v. Oregon State: I think Cal has the best chance of anybody to pull off an upset this week, but it depends heavily on how their D can handle the Beavers high power offense, or if they can survive in a shootout.

Maryland v. UNC: Maryland could easily smash UNC's dreams of an ACC title shot with this game, but UNC probably has the edge playing at home.

Miss. State v. Alabama: This is the very definition of the trap game for Alabama, right between the LSU game and the Iron Bowl. If they can keep their heads on straight, they should be fine. If they lose focus, MissSt. could cause them a lot of problems.

[Paelos]

Georgia is taking years off my life with these games. Last second wins against Kentucky and Auburn? My heart can't take this week to week against teams that aren't even playing .500 ball.

[Abagadro]

South Carolina v. Florida: Spurrier wants to win this game badly, and Florida needs to win this game to get a national title shot. I think SC gives them a run for their money early, but they tire late and come up short. Still, Florida doesn't cover the spread.

Heh. 28-0 4 minutes into the 2nd quarter. Florida is scary good.

[SnakeCharmer]

So here's the thing.

I'm just not that impressed with Alabama anymore.  To be fair, MSU is playing some damn fine defense, in particular the secondary (which we knew was good coming into the game).

I don't know if they're just playing tight and too close to the vest. 
I don't know if they are ranked #1 just because they are the sole undefeated team in the SEC and the sole undefeated major big time college program - because wins against Clemson and Georgia just don't look so shiny anymore and the rest of the schedule is rather unremarkable.

Granted, everybody gets up for #1; the whole they have everything to lose and we have nothing lose mentality.  And let's face it - beating 'Bama even when they were down a bit was still a big thing to put on your college football resume.  But truly great teams don't play down to their competition like this. 

I'm just not sure what to make of it.

They went from a team that could do no wrong, just barely eeking by.  My only guess is that they're playing tight now that the spot light is shining on them.  It's not the praise that's being heaped on them, per se, in that it's pretty much just a local thing - most of the national media seems to think (and I'm beginning to agree with them) that they won't make it to the BCS game because UF is going to obliterate them (looking quite likely the way UF is playing).

All I can figure is that they play better with their backs against the wall (the whole no respect thing), and they do just enough to win.  But that will carry them only so far.

Just rambling.  Don't mind me.

Edit: 

Florida is scary good.

This.  They are playing on a completely different level than everyone else.  They've got so many weapons on offense; their defense doesn't make mistakes.  Their special teams are without a doubt the best in the country.  Maybe better than any pro team.  They play clean ball, don't get stupid penalties.  Short of an injury to Teebow and the entire defense, I don't see how anyone can stop them -or- score on them.

Scary good is an understatement.

[Paelos]

Florida v. Texas would be epic for a national title game. Unfortunately we aren't going to get it.

Florida and Texas are the best teams in the country right now. Florida decides to turn it on, and it's over. They are clean as Snake said. It's not a contest anymore. If Alabama wins the SEC, it's a miracle. Yeah, I said it. A fucking miracle. It's actually shocking that they lost to Ole Miss right now. I can't fathom how it happened.

Also, I hate Georgia and all we stand for right now. We're a fucking defensive joke. We're terrible in the red zone. We are god-awful on special teams. We take more penalties than anyone in the SEC. I don't care if we win that way, it's not football. It's not the SEC. It's driving me crazy.

[Abagadro]

I'm going to be a wreck at the U/BYU game next week. It will be bad enough just to lose to those BYU motherfuckers but if they knock us out of a BCS game I may go completely mental.

[Triforcer]

I'm going to be a wreck at the U/BYU game next week. It will be bad enough just to lose to those BYU motherfuckers but if they knock us out of a BCS game I may go completely mental.

I think our fanboism may finally clash this year, Ab.  Do you have what it takes to take down the Buckeyes? 

[Abagadro]

You think they will end up in the same bowl? Everything I am reading suggests that we will end up in the Sugar against the loser of the SEC title game if we win next week.  What scenario do you envision where OSU gets into the same BSC bowl as the Yoots?

As to the question, I don't know. I haven't watched much of OSU this year since they seem to be out of the championship running. The Utes have an exceptionally good defense that I think could deal with both Wells and Pryor (their run defense is particularly good although I don't think they have really faced a back of that caliber). Our offense has weapons but tends to have shitty play calling and gets tightened up to the point where it doesn't perform. How is OSU's secondary? It seems like Brian Johnson can shred secondaries that play a lot of zone which then opens up our power running game.  Would be an interesting game to say the least.

[Triforcer]

You think they will end up in the same bowl? Everything I am reading suggests that we will end up in the Sugar against the loser of the SEC title game if we win next week.  What scenario do you envision where OSU gets into the same BSC bowl as the Yoots?

As to the question, I don't know. I haven't watched much of OSU this year since they seem to be out of the championship running. The Utes have an exceptionally good defense that I think could deal with both Wells and Pryor (their run defense is particularly good although I don't think they have really faced a back of that caliber). Our offense has weapons but tends to have shitty play calling and gets tightened up to the point where it doesn't perform. How is OSU's secondary? It seems like Brian Johnson can shred secondaries that play a lot of zone which then opens up our power running game.  Would be an interesting game to say the least.

I didn't think about that.  I guess in most likely scenarios, they wouldn't play each other. 

I think the game would really be a defensive slog.  Our passing game is pathetic, absent the ocassional Pryor "running around for 15 seconds and throwing a 44 yard bomb" that we can only pull off against terrible teams.  But our defense is still (at least before Illinois) a top10 affair.  The secondary is moderately good, but not great.  The Utes could manage 21 or so points, and it would really come down to how good Wells decided to be that day. 

[Abagadro]

Sound like it could end up like the TCU game where the defenses just clamped down on everything until the last minute miracle drive by one of the teams. It would depend on whether Andy Ludwig (our OC) got his head out of his ass and called some plays to get our speedy guys on the edge. I imagine if the OSU linebackers and ends have speed (which is what TCU killed us with) it would cause our offense lots of problems. This unfortunately isn't the 2004 team which I am of the opinion could have competed with any team in the country that year, but it is still pretty decent and has a lot of heart.

[Paelos]

Oregon State could spoil the show for the BCS in a lot of ways. They have two more games to go against unranked conference opponents, and if they win them both they become PAC-10 Champions. That fucks USC (huzzah!  ), and forces them into an akward place. Here's the shakeout.

National Championship:
SEC Champion (Likely Florida)
Big 12 South Champion (Likely Texas Tech)

Rose Bowl:
PAC 10 Champ: Oregon State, automatically in the Rose Bowl
Big 12 Champ: Penn State, plays OSU in the Rose - (However, if they lose to Michigan State, Ohio State wins...again  )

Sugar Bowl:
SEC runner-up (likely Alabama)
At large bid (Utah?)

Fiesta:
Big 12 runner up, or best South team (most likely Texas)
At large bid (USC?)

Orange:
ACC Champ (This is such a clusterfuck conference this year, I have no idea who it will be)
At large bid (Boise State?)

Those 3 at large bids would go to teams at the top that aren't already involved in bowl games. Those top 3 would be USC, Utah, and Boise. Here's the weird part, those are ALL teams the fiesta bowl will want due to the travel proximity. I think, as Abagadro was saying, Utah would go Sugar, USC would go Fiesta, and Boise goes orange because it's going to be the least interesting of the bowls.

[Abagadro]

You left out the Big East champ which would likely face the ACC champ in the Orange. I don't see both Utah and Boise State making it in. Everything else (except your typo in the Rose bowl (Big 10 not Big 12) is pretty much correct if things play out like that. I could see Oklahoma beating Texas Tech though a messing things up real good.

[Paelos]

I always forget the Big East. Then again so does the rest of the football world usually. 

In any case, you're right about Boise and Utah being mutually exclusive. You are certainly right about the OU problem. The funny thing is, in the event of the 3 way tie in the same division, it would come down to their ranking in the Coaches poll. Who do you pick in that scenario? Texas or OU?

[EWSpider]

I always forget the Big East. Then again so does the rest of the football world usually. 

In any case, you're right about Boise and Utah being mutually exclusive. You are certainly right about the OU problem. The funny thing is, in the event of the 3 way tie in the same division, it would come down to their ranking in the Coaches poll. Who do you pick in that scenario? Texas or OU?

Texas has cooler uniforms...and that nifty thing they do with their fingers.

[Triforcer]

I'm very nervous about the MIchigan game today.  The Wolverines have nothing to lose at this point, we've been then four times in a row and the Bucks are bound to be a bit lazy, etc.

Nonetheless, Michigan lost their QB and McGuffie.  I think OSU will limp to something like a 17-7 win, Penn State will win, and we'll miss the BCS. 

[Paelos]

I think you'll both lose, honestly, and the whole world will laugh at the Big Ten and PAC-10 as Oregon State and Michigan State emerge as the champions and go to the Rose Bowl.

Or was that just my dream... 

[Abagadro]

The goofy bible citations on the eye-black has got to go.

[Montague]

If Michigan had played a team like Florida or USC that actually exploits physical mismatches they'd have given up 70-80 points easy. That team is that bad.

[EWSpider]

Wow at the prison raping Texas Tech is receiving in Norman.   

[Abagadro]

BCS BABY!

[Triforcer]

Yeah, congrats.  They really toughed it out this season...hope you can prevail and show the "major" conferences what's what.

I am 90% certain that my poor Bucks are going to be the first runner up for getting into a BCS game 

[Montague]

BCS BABY!

Grats! Burn down the BCS by winning big. 

OSU probably headed to the Cap One bowl, so another SEC team for them.

[Abagadro]

Yeah, congrats.  They really toughed it out this season...hope you can prevail and show the "major" conferences what's what.

I am 90% certain that my poor Bucks are going to be the first runner up for getting into a BCS game 

Still lots of football to be played. Texas Tech just got knocked out of the BCS altogether. Could happen to others as well.


EDIT: In fact, I could easily see Oregon beating Oregon State putting USC in the Rose and opening up a spot for Ohio State.