A Prescient Nintendo Quote And Relevant Commentary

[Selby]

...it seems the only people still interested in developing deep rpg for the pc are in Europe.

And only 1-2 decent games have been released too.  There hasn't been a "deep RPG for the pc" in 6-7 years.

[Murgos]

Witcher?

[Yegolev]

Nintendo has it's fingers on the pulse of the gaming public.

[Musashi]

I really don't think Nintendo abandoned its audience.  I think it's former audience grew up.  Now it found a new one. 

Didn't I link to this here already?

http://malstrom.50webs.com/birdman.html

I don't know if you did or not.  I tried to read that, but there were a lot of words.  Sooooo I stopped.

If I can summarily generalize where I think that rambling blog was going, I think It would have eventually led me to a place where I could agree with it (and you).

Summary:

One day, Nintendo kids will grow up too and want to play games that my old ass likes.  This will bolster the market for 'upmarket' games.

Ergo, even though I'd sooner stick a Wavebird up my ass than play most games for the Wii, it is still a good thing for me in the long run because I play 'upmarket' games.

[MahrinSkel]

http://malstrom.50webs.com/birdman.html

Very cool, thank you.

--Dave

[Triforcer]

The people who hated the Wii two years ago are STILL saying it will crash and burn?  You people are so full of cosmic wrongness that if you wished death on me I would instantly gain immortality. 

[Big Gulp]

The people who hated the Wii two years ago are STILL saying it will crash and burn?  You people are so full of cosmic wrongness that if you wished death on me I would instantly gain immortality. 

Not so much that it'll crash and burn, but it won't last.  The problem with the Wii is trying to sell games to non-gamers.  Look at Boomblox, which by anyone's definition is a fantastic game that would have done great on either the 360 or PS3.  Wii?  60,000 sales only for the first week.  That's for a game that Steven Spielberg had a hand in creating and was decently hyped.

Basically, unless it's complete shovelware where the developer's expectations are nil to begin with or it's a first party Nintendo game, sales for the Wii are pathetic.

And when you're talking about non-gamers you're also talking about people who are easily distractible by the next fad to come along.  These people aren't attached to gaming because they never were gamers in the first place.  Shit, by Nintendo's definition my father is a gamer because he plays some piddly little flash fishing game every once in a while.

[Ratman_tf]

I don't know if you did or not.  I tried to read that, but there were a lot of words.  Sooooo I stopped.

If I can summarily generalize where I think that rambling blog was going, I think It would have eventually led me to a place where I could agree with it (and you).

Summary:

One day, Nintendo kids will grow up too and want to play games that my old ass likes.  This will bolster the market for 'upmarket' games.

Ergo, even though I'd sooner stick a Wavebird up my ass than play most games for the Wii, it is still a good thing for me in the long run because I play 'upmarket' games.

That is one of his conclusions. the tl;dr version is that no one was making quality "introductory" level games anymore, and Nintendo cashed in on that.

And one of his predictions is that Nintendo will swim "upstream" with their consumers to compete with Sony and Microsoft gradually. As you say, they are grooming the next wave of hardcore gamers.

The problem with that is that Nintendo has always had difficulties with the upmarket. From mature content (Mortal Kombat) through adopting new hardware (CD versus cartridge) and public perception. So unless they have a good strategy, this may indeed be a bubble that will burst and leave Nintendo back at square one- again.

[Fabricated]

I really don't think Nintendo abandoned its audience.  I think it's former audience grew up.  Now it found a new one. 

Didn't I link to this here already?

http://malstrom.50webs.com/birdman.html

TL;DR.

[ahoythematey]

Shit, by Nintendo's definition my father is a gamer because he plays some piddly little flash fishing game every once in a while.

To be fair, Raph would say the same about your father too, but that's neither here nor there.

I remember when the birdman read was originally linked here and I loved reading it, but I think it does potentially have the fatal flaw of thinking that Nintendo will have a sufficient fans for the "upmarket" whenever it is they go there in force.  Just because people love the Wii does not mean that they are, in fact, going to become interested in the "more filling, satisfying" type of games that we lifelong gamers have loved.  If Nintendo does nothing to retain their core-gamers now and does not end up creating enough new ones to replace those lost, they will find themselves in the same place as Sega, where they have a legion of fans who dearly love what they had but just do not have any interest in what the company does because of how jilted they feel.

Personally, and speaking from the perspective of somebody who is a zelda and metroid fanatic, I really don't see myself caring much about Nintendo within the next year or two if they do not do some serious rethinking about things I need to remain loyal to their company, stuff like online multiplayer, improved graphical fidelity, and deeper gameplay.

Sony is trying their hardest to build up their first-party to match Nintendo's in terms of game design and polish; Nintendo should worry about this, because Sony can definitely pull it off.

Overall, I think Nintendo is becoming too proud of what they have accomplished, and while it is certainly not damaging to their pocketbooks, they will have lost a lot of the loyalty that was built up since the NES days, and the tragedy is that they still will not care.

[KallDrexx]

Not so much that it'll crash and burn, but it won't last.  The problem with the Wii is trying to sell games to non-gamers. 

And it's working..

How people can say that the wii "won't last" when the system is well over a year old and (at least in NA) is still selling more than the 360 and ps3 combined and is now the #1 console on the market?  It was cute when the wii started and you could call it hype but after 1.5 years and 10.7 million units sold it's not just hype anymore.

I'm sorry you feel violated by Nintendo but get over it.  Nintendo found a huge, and untapped market that both Microsoft and Sony have spent 4 years marketing themselves out of and it is not going to be easy for either of them to get their name associated with that market again.  Nintendo knows what their market wants and how to deliver it to them, are succeeding, and will continue to succeed for a long time as they print more and more money hats that MS and Sony can only dream of having.

[Sairon]

I never said that, I'm just quietly dreaming for their doom.

Cant you do that for someone who deserves it like Sony or EA?

Fuck, they both have deserved it since 2000 or so. And only get worse as the years pass.

Why does Sony deserve it?

[Big Gulp]

How people can say that the wii "won't last" when the system is well over a year old and (at least in NA) is still selling more than the 360 and ps3 combined and is now the #1 console on the market? 

It's the #1 console for people who want to "play the bowling game".  Their attachment rate otherwise is less than stellar.

I own a Wii.  I have nothing at all against Nintendo, but they really aren't in the same market as MS and Sony are in.  I think by tying themselves into the fickle non-gamer market and alienating what core base they had left that they're seriously setting themselves up for failure down the road.

Right now they're doing great because they make money off of the hardware.  In the future???  Well, they'll still have the handheld market.

[Strazos]

As some that actually works for one of these stupid game stores, I can tell you that N's first-party stuff sells great...everything else sells like garbage.

And really, when you look at the Wii game library, there's not much there beyond when Nintendo makes themselves.

[Sir T]

Shit, by Nintendo's definition my father is a gamer because he plays some piddly little flash fishing game every once in a while.

To be fair, Raph would say the same about your father too, but that's neither here nor there.

I remember when the birdman read was originally linked here and I loved reading it, but I think it does potentially have the fatal flaw of thinking that Nintendo will have a sufficient fans for the "upmarket" whenever it is they go there in force.  Just because people love the Wii does not mean that they are, in fact, going to become interested in the "more filling, satisfying" type of games that we lifelong gamers have loved.  If Nintendo does nothing to retain their core-gamers now and does not end up creating enough new ones to replace those lost, they will find themselves in the same place as Sega, where they have a legion of fans who dearly love what they had but just do not have any interest in what the company does because of how jilted they feel.

I think your missing the real point.

Take the example of kids physical education. If you do it and you think "I'm grooming the next generation of sports stars" would you feel like a failure if only a few of them go on to compete in sport on a serious level? Maybe you would but the truth is only a minority of people will become interested in that. Other people will content themselves with jogging to keep fit or having the odd kick around with a ball. You might call that bing a failure but in truth having all those people keeping fit is a success.

Now look at it this way. If someone is pushing out quality simple games, you might think "ha haa, Ze vill all come to love Oblivion" when in fact some or even most wont. They will be perfectly happy bouncing a viritual ball pack and forth. However some will become interested in more deeper gaming. Not all of them, but some. And those some will mean that the market for deeper games will grow, because suddenly more people will be looking for them.

Hell, another forum I go to has simple games like snake on it and people have tournaments on them. The whole area of flash games are ignored by gaming snobs but they are still enormously successful, and frankly great fun.

[Fabricated]

I never said that, I'm just quietly dreaming for their doom.

Cant you do that for someone who deserves it like Sony or EA?

Fuck, they both have deserved it since 2000 or so. And only get worse as the years pass.

Why does Sony deserve it?

Well, both Microsoft AND Sony deserve some pain for attempting to push this settop box shit. Both consoles are basically a move towards controlling everything that goes in/out of your TV.

[Ratman_tf]

Hell another forum I go to has simple games like snake on it and people have tournaments on them. The whole area of flash games are ignored by gaming snobs but they are still enormously successful, and frankly great fun.

I don't expect the upmarket guys to stop looking down their noses at "simple" games, but it's true that there are people who like to play games, but arent' interested in Super-Complex-Fighting-Simulator-XXVI, or Brown Vietnam: The Graphics Hog. And there's no shame in making games for them.

[HaemishM]

The people who hated the Wii two years ago are STILL saying it will crash and burn?  You people are so full of cosmic wrongness that if you wished death on me I would instantly gain immortality. 

Not so much that it'll crash and burn, but it won't last. 

Is it supposed to, though? Seriously, the Wii is not a 10-year lifecycle, like Sony tries to portray the PS3 as. It will be replaced with another newest greatest HD motion-control thing (and hopefully one that embraces a hard drive and some goddamn online capabilities) in what, 2 years tops? Year 5 of the Wii will be year 1 of the Wii 2.0 HD. The Wii is not working on the same business model as the PS3 or the 360, and it chaps hardcore gamers' hides. Meanwhile, I eat my popcorn and laugh.

I'd love it if the Wii would actually make more games that take real advantage of the motion controls in genres that I enjoy more, like sword-fighting FPS's, MMOG's and more solid sports sims. It doesn't, because it makes more money with other things. Is the casual market fickle? You bet your ass it is. That doesn't mean it can't be a solid foundation for a business plan.

[HaemishM]

How people can say that the wii "won't last" when the system is well over a year old and (at least in NA) is still selling more than the 360 and ps3 combined and is now the #1 console on the market? 

It's the #1 console for people who want to "play the bowling game".  Their attachment rate otherwise is less than stellar.

You are incorrect. The attachment rate is as high or higher than the PS3.

[K9]

Is it supposed to, though? Seriously, the Wii is not a 10-year lifecycle, like Sony tries to portray the PS3 as. It will be replaced with another newest greatest HD motion-control thing (and hopefully one that embraces a hard drive and some goddamn online capabilities) in what, 2 years tops? Year 5 of the Wii will be year 1 of the Wii 2.0 HD. The Wii is not working on the same business model as the PS3 or the 360, and it chaps hardcore gamers' hides. Meanwhile, I eat my popcorn and laugh.

With such a short lifecycle they seem to run the real risk of saturation. Most of the people who would buy a Wii are not the type to fork out for a replacement within such a short window; or at least that's what I assume. Is this a valid impression?

[HaemishM]

Possibly. Nobody said it was a surefire thing... nothing in business is. See the PS3, which most experts would have had you believe couldn't possibly fail because the PS2 was such an awesome hit. And Sony believed that, got arrogant and WHAMMO! A game machine for a market Sony can't even touch (and tries to ignore) is kicking their ballsacks.

An HD Wii may be a colossal flop. But it mostly depends on the games.

[MahrinSkel]

An HD Wii with a better storage solution (like using standard Flash formats or an internal hard drive), improved motion control, and full backwards compatibility (just up-clock the existing architecture) would solidify their position.  The lack of third-party product for the Wii had more to do with miscalculations by the publishers 3 years ago than anything else.  Gamecube was last place in the previous generation, and with the weak specs and "gimmicky" controllers the big money didn't want to get behind the Wii.  So all you've seen is underfunded or rushed product (or both).

--Dave

[Fordel]

I don't think a HD Wii would go anywhere, not for another decade or so. HD is simply not the norm yet. Most people don't have a HD set or a fancy Sound system to back it up.

[Lantyssa]

There's an advantage to going after the very casual and non-gamer market.  There are always more out there.  10 million units sold out of 300 million people?  Millions of households with young kids hitting the prime age range for introductory games every year?

And you people are forecasting DOOM?  Ha ha ha.  Y'all are funny.

[Azazel]

Yeah, I'm not seeing the inherent need for Wii 2.0 actually. They've coasted along quite nicely on their 1st-party library without HD. I could see them going another 4 years as is.

It's not exactly like the graphics NOW are cutting-edge, especially compared to the PS360. We're kindof at the point where the baseline for graphics is set, and while you can comfortably go up (not really down) as long as you ride that baseline you're ok. I'm referring to simple-3D like Wii Sports/Fit/etc as well as Low-poly-but-handcrafted-pretty-3d like WoW has.

You don't want to go back to EQ1's (original) blocky models, or Half-Life 1, but cranking it up from WoW to EQ2 or Vanguard, or from Smash Bros to Ninja Gaiden isn't a necessity if your product is otherwise quality.

And I say this as a Wii owner who's not exactly enamoured of the system. It gets a solid "it's ok" from me, but my 360 gets oodles more time /played.

[UnSub]

A huge, huge part of the Wii's success is that it broke the console maxim of starting out expensive and slowly dropping price down. Wiis started out affordable. That's a huge benefit. It's well known that the $200 - $300 range is a console price sweet spot for consumers, so it made sense to start there.

Will people go out to buy Wii 2.0? It would have to offer a lot. I mean, how many people are out replacing their DVD players with Blu Ray players?

Will Wii crash and burn? Nope. Will third part game developers crash and burn developing games for the Wii? Yes.

[dusematic]

What Nintendo really needs right now is a breakout 3rd party hit don't they?  I'm not sure they've had one, and if they don't get any it will dissuade quality development.

[Velorath]

Look at Boomblox, which by anyone's definition is a fantastic game that would have done great on either the 360 or PS3.  Wii?  60,000 sales only for the first week.  That's for a game that Steven Spielberg had a hand in creating and was decently hyped.

Not only would it have sold just as poorly on the 360 and PS3, but it wouldn't have even been the same game without the motion controls.

[Murgos]

Well, both Microsoft AND Sony deserve some pain for attempting to push this settop box shit. Both consoles are basically a move towards controlling everything that goes in/out of your TV.

What things?  You mean like games, movies and tv shows?  If they are going to sell me what I want, which is instant download service for a huge library of movies, whatever TV show I forgot to record on my own or missed in the last few years and access to games without having to go to Best Buy or Gamestop well, then, fuck yeah!  Bring on the era of MS domination of the home theater!

[Tebonas]

Funny, isn't that what my Mac Mini would do for me via Itunes if I was in the USA?

Why exactly do I need it a second time on a game console?

[Murgos]

Funny, isn't that what my Mac Mini would do for me via Itunes if I was in the USA?

Why exactly do I need it a second time on a game console?

Someone said you did?

Options are good, competition works wonders.

[Tebonas]

Which is why I don't understand the Wii hatred in this thread. Its almost like hardcore gamers feel threatened by a console not pandering to them. Like they would become obsolete and killed by the great casual uprising.

My over 60 year old father who always told me I will never achieve anything because I waste my spare time playing silly games plays a round of bowling or two on family sundays, as does my mother that only played two games her entire life before that - River Raid and Moorhuhn (yeah I know, still scratching my head about that). That is not tapping new markets? That is what you people call a failure?

Give me some of that failure and I can retire a rich man.

[Yegolev]

The fear, from my perspective at least, is that publishers throwing their budgets at "casual" games will reduce funding for games that I like.  Games I like are expensive to make... no, not always, but generally they cost more to develop than the stuff you see for the Wii.  This fear is already manifest in the descent of The Elder Scrolls from one of the most amazing PC RPGs into a console eye-candy kiddie toy; this fear of the Wii by PS3/360 fans is a rebranded fear of consoles by PC fans.

[Bunk]

Which is why I don't understand the Wii hatred in this thread. Its almost like hardcore gamers feel threatened by a console not pandering to them. Like they would become obsolete and killed by the great casual uprising.

I think that sums up exactly what we are afraid of. Much like PC gamers X years ago feared that the success of the PS2 and XBox would drive the top developers to consoles, we console users are now afraid that Nintendo's success will drive the top devs to the "casual game" market. The market tends to gravitate to where the money is.

I predict that soon the term "consolized" will soon get replaced by "wiiified".

[Tebonas]

I would share that fear. But I'm more optimistic from the trend I experience. For that to happen casuals would have to buy more than 3 games.

Nintendo is swimming in money. Other developers for the Wii I suspect to be a bit underwhelmed by their success.