Well, it looks like EQ2 will beat WoW to shelves by 2 weeks

[esad]

Actually, if Blizzard plays this smart I think they can totally pwn SOE.

It's simple, Blizzard starts the open beta on Nov 8th with the caveat that if you purchase the retail box within one month of the retail's release date then you can keep the characters you played in open beta.

So, you can play WoW free for a couple of weeks and still keep your character you started in OB. Plays right into the "need to level quickly" mentality that most MMOGers have.

That would totally trump SOE, assuming they could pull if off without any glaring bug issues associated with it.

[WonderBrick]

We're screwed whatever happens. If EQ2 is a huge success, the money men will pronounce the EQ2 formula as the only one worth banking on. If EQ2 is a dismal failure, the money men will pronounce the death of the MMOG and cease to finance them.

I think the subscription revenue stream will always appeal to investors.  And I am not just refering to MMOGs.  There is alot of money to be made with the subscription method.

If you told me that the day EQ2 was coming out there would be a free open beta you might be right. But as it is you HAVE to buy the box to get hooked. The opening level content is meaningless, you can't get hooked on it without buying the box first.

People get hooked on demos, betas, etc. They don't get hooked on boxes they have to buy at full price. Once you decide to buy or not buy the box the decision is made.

I agree.  Whenever my guard is down, the initial full retail box price is the wall that constantly keeps me from testing out the latest grind/level POS.

[Shannow]

It's simple, Blizzard starts the open beta on Nov 8th with the caveat that if you purchase the retail box within one month of the retail's release date then you can keep the characters you played in open beta.

That'd be interesting to say the least. Increase burnout factor, piss off new players, etc etc..Go ahead Blizzard.[/u]

[Paelos]

Letting people keep Beta toons is a nightmare waiting to happen. You instantly create the haves/have-nots in your playerbase which is not a good idea at LAUNCH. Let that happen naturally as the game goes on, but don't handcuff youself right off the bat. The people playing in open beta that would be inticed by keeping characters are the same people that would play without it. In other words, its an unnecessary feature that can only piss off the casuals. Especially when you factor in any exploits that didn't make it to retail which bumped up all d00ds.

MMOG launches are one of the few times of near equality in the players, don't fuck with that.

[El Gallo]

FFO seems to be doing decently despite that.

I just don't understand how glacially slow Blizzard is.  The EQ2 team is flying right now.  All Blizzard needs to do to be release-worthy is slap on talents for 2 classes and some BS racial abilities.  But just doing that takes months.

I don't know that open beta alone will be enough to stop the bleeding to EQ2.  People would rather play their character than play some throwaway for a few weeks.  I think people are underestimating the number of people who are out there waiting for the next big game, think that both WoW and EQ2 could be it, and will buy whichever one hits the shelves first.  Or maybe I am overestimating.

[HaemishM]

I think you are underestimating the people who will be completely turned off because their computer shits a brick trying to run EQ2. I can almost guarantee they will sell a lot more boxes than they will have subscribers after the free month. And I don't think they'll sell a lot of boxes.

I'm sticking with my estimates of 50-100k for EQ2 (subscriptions) and 200k tops for WoW.

[El Gallo]

I'll bet you five dollah that EQ has more than 100k subs 6 months after release, including gold accounts or whatever they are calling the EQ+EQ2 package.  Remember when EQ1 was going to fail because nobody would ever buy a 3d card just to play a game?

[HaemishM]

Remember when MMOG companies gave out accurate subscription numbers in press releases?

I'd rather bet you $5 EQ2 doesn't do that.

[Liquidator]

FFO seems to be doing decently despite that.

I just don't understand how glacially slow Blizzard is.  The EQ2 team is flying right now.  All Blizzard needs to do to be release-worthy is slap on talents for 2 classes and some BS racial abilities.  But just doing that takes months.

It most definitely has taken them a long time to wrap things up but they're almost there.  Hunters and Paladins are the only classes left without talents.  Tigole has stated that Hunter talents are complete and will be going live in the  next patch.  Paladin talents are being worked on - who knows if they'll make the next patch or not.  One of the community reps made a post yesterday and said that they are "working" on the racial abilities and hopefully they will be ready for release.  Whether or not that happens remains to be seen.  They finally got all of the world maps in place along with maps to the major cities.  There are still quite a number of quests with no rewards on them, but most of these are in zones on Kalimdor and Blizzard has said they are doing a content pass on that continent.  I think things are shaping up quickly.  This next patch should be huge and will probably be the last patch before release.

[El Gallo]

Remember when MMOG companies gave out accurate subscription numbers in press releases?

I'd rather bet you $5 EQ2 doesn't do that.

I figured we would rely on our very own resident Font of All Knowledge Regarding MMOG Subscription Numbers and Politics. . .

[Viin]

I figured we would rely on our very own resident Font of All Knowledge Regarding MMOG Subscription Numbers and Politics. . .

Al Gore?

[HaemishM]

Remember when MMOG companies gave out accurate subscription numbers in press releases?

I'd rather bet you $5 EQ2 doesn't do that.

I figured we would rely on our very own resident Font of All Knowledge Regarding MMOG Subscription Numbers and Politics. . .

I'd rather use this service.

[El Gallo]

I was convinced that would be goatse.

[Numtini]

Remember when EQ1 was going to fail because nobody would ever buy a 3d card just to play a game?

Yup, that was one item of wisdom about EQ. I certainly doubted it. And I played AC in emulation mode for a while because I had a laptop without a 3d card.

If my memory serves me, the other bit pre-launch bit of conventional wisdom was that the "PK Switch" was a dumb idea because only maybe 5 or 10% would turn themselves to non-PK.

I suspect WOW will do better than EQ2 at launch, but six months down the line, I suspect the reverse will be true. Unless you're a PVPer, I don't see where the game is with WOW.

If it is halfway decent, Guild Wars is going to devastate the idea of a "casual" MMPORPG market. GW is a very good reason to get WOW out the door now instead of February.

[schild]

If it is halfway decent, Guild Wars is going to devastate the idea of a "casual" MMPORPG market. GW is a very good reason to get WOW out the door now instead of February.

Blizzard North vs. Blizzard would be a battle I'd almost pay to see.

[MrHat]

If it is halfway decent, Guild Wars is going to devastate the idea of a "casual" MMPORPG market. GW is a very good reason to get WOW out the door now instead of February.

Blizzard North vs. Blizzard would be a battle I'd almost pay to see.

Arena.net = Blizzard North right?

[schild]

Right.

[kaid]

One thing to note would be long term viability. WoW may have some issues because its graphics while very stylish and I like them currently are already sub par technically. While this is nice and it allows it to run realy fast on current systems there is some question about it in the long term.  If it already looks a bit dated polycount wise what will it look like in a year or 2 years?

Eq2 on the other hand already looks pretty good if harsh on system performance. I have for kickes turned the graphics up to HOLY CRAP PRETTY slideshow mode. There is a LOT of improvement available for improvement as peoples systems get better and better over the next few years.

EQlive aimed pretty much the same way. People had many doubts about a game that required a 3d card to run at the time it was released.

As far as game content additions I would have to say if beta is any judge SOE will leave WoW in the dust. WoW's patching is glacial even in beta they are pumping out maybe one patch a month. In release when they are not in full on frantic mode I expect it to be even slower.


kaid

[Shannow]

Um if EQ2 only has a 100k subscribers after 6 months won't that be considered a bit of a failure (in the eyes of SOE and compared to EQ)? I cant see a mmolg greatly increasing its sub numbers that long after its release in todays market withouth some radical changes.

[Rasix]

If it already looks a bit dated polycount wise what will it look like in a year or 2 years?

Stylish. Like it does now.  Seriously, in 3 years, Zelda: Windwaker would still be a beautiful game.  WoW will always be stylish.  This works for some people, it doesn't for others.  I don't mind it.  

After playing a bit more, EQ2's graphics just aren't doing much for me anymore except slowing me down.  I actually prefer the functionality of pre Luclin EQ or pre-ugly-3D of UO.  

Sometimes pushing the envelope is just pushing.  EQ2 shouldn't have gotten so ambitious with their graphics, because what became of it is somewhat underwelming.

[Fargull]

If it already looks a bit dated polycount wise what will it look like in a year or 2 years?

As far as game content additions I would have to say if beta is any judge SOE will leave WoW in the dust. WoW's patching is glacial even in beta they are pumping out maybe one patch a month. In release when they are not in full on frantic mode I expect it to be even slower.

I agree with Rasix on the visuals.  As DAoC has pointed out and EQ, the ability to upgrade the visuals is possible after release.

As for EQ leaving WOW in the dust by patching quickly, I do not agree with a caviat.  EQ has released some bombs over time patch wise, hopefully this has changed but to be honest I don't like SOE's track record.  I have not heard great big shouts of Broken in the WOW beta on the patches.  If they release them with the frequency of COH, I will be more than happy.  COH has about a month in a half to two month cycle it seems.

[Trippy]

One thing to note would be long term viability. WoW may have some issues because its graphics while very stylish and I like them currently are already sub par technically. While this is nice and it allows it to run realy fast on current systems there is some question about it in the long term.  If it already looks a bit dated polycount wise what will it look like in a year or 2 years?

There's always the option of releasing new models later on like what Rasix mentioned with Shadows of Luclin for EQ and what Mythic is doing with Catacombs.

[Merusk]

In short:

Other MMOs have patched-in new graphics.

None have patched-in the fun that wasn't there on release.

[jpark]

If it already looks a bit dated polycount wise what will it look like in a year or 2 years?

Stylish. Like it does now.  Seriously, in 3 years, Zelda: Windwaker would still be a beautiful game.  WoW will always be stylish.  This works for some people, it doesn't for others.

If there is any genius behind WoW - this is it.  These graphics will never become dated for all intent and purposes.  Imo, too few people recognize this.  EQII claims to have graphics built for the future that you can upgrade into - which as HaemishM points out - is dubious logic.

[Alkiera]

My problem with the 'Graphics your computer grows into' argument is that The engine designers are SOE... and EQ1, whose engine they also designed, runs far worse now, on my 1.4 Ghz +Radeon 9600 Pro, than it ever did when I had a 300Mhz K6 and a 8 meg Rage3D card.

My machine has grown, quite a bit, in power...  Yet EQ runs just as crappily.  Admittedly, if I turn off all the shiney features, so it's closer to the original client, I can speed it up somewhat...  But I'd still say it's slower than 5 years ago.

"OMG Pretty" is great in a game where you have time to stop and sniff roses and examine views without interruption.  It is less than great when it slows down your machine in a game that requires real-time decision making.

Alkiera

[schild]

Honestly, a 1.4ghz is a piece of ass. You're 200% behind the curb. Now someone with a 2.4ghz+ would have a complaint. But ya know, complaints are complaints and SOE should listen to them every once in a while...but they don't (or don't seem to often enough).

[Alkiera]

Honestly, a 1.4ghz is a piece of ass.

And it's been a pretty fine piece of ass up until the last 3 months or so.  With my recent video card upgrade, I get good framerates in lots of 3d games, except EQ.  Considering the current engine is a couple years older than my hardware, low teens framerates really aren't acceptable.  This isn't a hardware problem, it's an artifact of their engine, which sucks.

And yes, schild, I'm aware I need to upgrade.  When I have the $450+ required to do so, I'll jump right on it.

Alkiera

[Margalis]

Graphics style never goes out of date. I can still play plenty of 16 bit games.

One thing that annoyed me watching EQ2 movies was the way the characters moved, they just kind of slid along the ground while making vague foot-waving motions.

A small detail that helps a lot is when peopel walking/running really LOOK like they are walking/running, because you do a lot of that in these games. It takes you out of the game when you see the animation is very off. (That is the very first thing I noticed about AC2, the running animation didn't match the movement at all)

[Trippy]

One thing that annoyed me watching EQ2 movies was the way the characters moved, they just kind of slid along the ground while making vague foot-waving motions.

A small detail that helps a lot is when peopel walking/running really LOOK like they are walking/running, because you do a lot of that in these games. It takes you out of the game when you see the animation is very off. (That is the very first thing I noticed about AC2, the running animation didn't match the movement at all)

Yes the EQII movement animations have issues all stemming from the fact that they've had to use the original run and combat "stride" animations in ways that were never intended. The normal run animations look pretty good for the races I've tried (which isn't many). However, the "sprint" animation looks like something they added into the game later on since it's just a speeded up run animation which for many races (like the elves) looks horrible. The other problem is that they did not originally intend for you to be able to run while in combat but when they added that in, they took the original combat stride animation and again just speeded it up. That's the "stick up the butt" animation you see in many videos where the character is swinging her arms stiffy at her side with her weapon drawn. This is just the stupiest looking animation you could imagine. It's actually even worse looking when you play the game than it looks in videos cause you are normally sprinting when running away from combat which speeds up the goofy animation even more.

[Kageru]

200K on launch for WoW? heh... I very much doubt that. It has substantial pull from multiple populations.

I'm also amused by the people who assume that because WoW has fast levelling relative to EQ2, EQ2 must be the more durable game. It confuses level curve with game, which I thought would be a hanging offence around here, and flies in the face of how little EQ2 endgame content has been revealed.

[El Gallo]

I think they assume that it will be more durable because over the course of a year SoE can push out three admittedly buggy but nonetheless popular expansions.  During that same time, Blizzard could maybe pull off 3 lines of code, but only if they were jacked on speed.

[Kageru]

And those people are going to be seriously disappointed when they realise how awful a SOE "production line" expansion is. They tried this, one expansion every 6 months, in EQ and the results were spectacularly bad. I've also noticed SOE's patches look massive, but part of the reason is they list every game resource they modified, Blizzard doesn't.

Still, the growth phase will be fun to watch. This will be Blizzards first subscription game, so previous precedents are probably invalid. I have this dream, almost certainly foolishly optimistic, that they might act unlike SOE and actually keep a substantial live team able to keep growing content between expansions. They should also have more revenue to play with (depending on how hard EQ1 gets hit).

[Merusk]

And those people are going to be seriously disappointed when they realise how awful a SOE "production line" expansion is. They tried this, one expansion every 6 months, in EQ and the results were spectacularly bad. I've also noticed SOE's patches look massive, but part of the reason is they list every game resource they modified, Blizzard doesn't.

Some people are happier to have content they can bitch about while still using it than no content to consume while bitching.   I prefer quality over quantity, but I never got to any of EQ's upper content until 2-3 years after an expansion was released at the earliest.  It remains to be seen what players will prefer, but I do know that massive amounts of WoW hardcore players are bitching they're bored and the game isn't even out yet.

Problem is WoW isn't designed to cater to the Hardcore MMO player's consumption rate at this point.  Really, it's not. IMO that's a good thing, but if Blizzard can't manufacture content faster than they currently are you'll even have your casual players bitching that they've run out of new things to do, an entirely new phenomenon in MMOs.

Still, the growth phase will be fun to watch. This will be Blizzards first subscription game, so previous precedents are probably invalid. I have this dream, almost certainly foolishly optimistic, that they might act unlike SOE and actually keep a substantial live team able to keep growing content between expansions. They should also have more revenue to play with (depending on how hard EQ1 gets hit).

Thing is, they have a substatnial live team NOW and content is pushed pretty damn slowly.  If they're going to do an expansion a year with a sizable portion of content, they're not going to have the resources to push content between them IN ADDITION to patching-in the stuff they're saying "after release" to right now.

A lot of people like to defent Bliz's slow patching by saying they're testing it thourougly internally.  Great if you catch all the big bugs that way, but they don't.  It's the nature of such a huge game that you don't catch all bugs until you've got 300k+ idiots trying their usual daily "Oh we didn't intend that skill to be used in THAT situation.. no wonder it broke" ways.  

SOE learned this early-on and decided a fast-response was better than slow-to-patch & still buggy. You're going to have to pay to fix those bugs regardless of who catches them.  While it's cost them some egg on their face for things they should have tested internally, and often they DO push without checking the actual test center bugs their cost/ bug is probably a lot lower.

I'm not saying I approve of SOE's method, but I understand it.  They're less concerned about reputation than Blizzard, and therefore will have higher ROI than Bliz will in the long-run, IMO.  There's a line that needs to be walked between the two methods that fosters both goodwill, & customer loyalty while not cutting into your profits by such a large margin.

[Kageru]

... but I do know that massive amounts of WoW hardcore players are bitching they're bored and the game isn't even out yet.

I don't agree. If you look closer I think you'll find the loudest whiners are those who soloed to 60 and find no content because they don't have the social structures (or skills) to challenge instances. The true hardcore gamers know they'll exhaust content in any game, but they're also the ones most interested in loot farming. In theory it's meant to be life quests and hero quests that keep the soloists interested, but I've no idea if blizzard can pull that off.

SOE learned this early-on and decided a fast-response was better than slow-to-patch & still buggy. You're going to have to pay to fix those bugs regardless of who catches them.  While it's cost them some egg on their face for things they should have tested internally, and often they DO push without checking the actual test center bugs their cost/ bug is probably a lot lower.

It's the issue of SOE being `fast' that catches my attention. When they had problems with the introduction of DX9 or luclin animations in EQ1 it took *forever* for a response. In fact the luclin animations are still broken 4 expansions later. Their development of the combat openings system in EQ1, or their fixing of content errors in GoD was similarly tardy.

I get the feeling you're looking at the patch lists from EQ2 development, which appear quite inflated to me, with blizzards patch per month. I've no idea which team is developing faster, EQ2 patch lists have only just become available and I'm not interested enough to run a comparison. But to assume those will be indicative of progress after launch seems dangerous.

[Soukyan]

One thing to note would be long term viability. WoW may have some issues because its graphics while very stylish and I like them currently are already sub par technically. While this is nice and it allows it to run realy fast on current systems there is some question about it in the long term.  If it already looks a bit dated polycount wise what will it look like in a year or 2 years?

There's always the option of releasing new models later on like what Rasix mentioned with Shadows of Luclin for EQ and what Mythic is doing with Catacombs.

Patching in graphics is always an ugly, nightmare affair. Granted, the EQ1 engine was ass and had huge technical problems to start, so Luclin did not help that. DAoC is a lot more stable and functional so perhaps Mythic won't run into any problems there. But quite honestly, today, EQ1 still looks like absolute ass compared to anything available. But that's because they concentrate on the wrong things when attempting to make the graphics look better. But I digress.

I'm not trying to defend SOE though. WoW's graphics are stylish. I like them. EQ2's graphics are gorgeous. I like them.

I didn't agree with the "scalable graphics" comment when it was used as marketing on SWG, and I still don't agree with it now when it's being used on EQ2. I will state this, however. The people who purchased Luclin back in EQ1 and then bitched that it didn't run well on their minimum requirement hardware pissed me off. "You can't make butter with a toothpick, baby!" The same goes for EQ2. I've always been of the camp that the graphics shown by marketing are always the best system running the game. I've also known for years that the minimum system requirements are a mistake to try running anything on. Windows XP will run on a 233 MHz PC with 64 MB of RAM, but it won't be the pretty blue and green shiny version with shadows and fading that you see in marketing. But I preach to the choir. You all know this and understand it.

My point is that on my PC (2.1 GHz AMD Athlon XP, 1.5 GB PC2700 RAM, GeForce 6800 GT 256 MB VRAM, Creative Audigy Gamer), EQ2 runs at 35-40 FPS average on the Very High graphics setting. My PC is one that I consider behind the times because of the processor. I'm not saying everyone should have over a Gig of RAM or the bleeding edge video card, but I do think that as players of games we need to understand the hardware limitations and realize that software will always try to push the envelope.

I am, as always, impressed with Blizzard's work on their engine. I am, as always, impressed with SOE's attempt on their engine, but disappointed at the amount of bugs and technical issues with it. However, I would not have wanted SOE to skimp in the graphics department, because they have managed to make one hell of an immersive world and I'm glad they did. WoW made an immersive world as well and did so by sticking to their previous style of graphics. Nothing wrong with that. I get the feeling that everyone thinks SOE should have pulled a "Wind Waker" on EQ2.