Well, it looks like EQ2 will beat WoW to shelves by 2 weeks

[El Gallo]

Looks like EQ2 on the 8th and WoW on the 22nd.

http://www.freep.com/entertainment/videogames/gbits24e_20041024.htm

I think it's a mistake by VU not to tell the team to slap on missing talents and match EQ2's release date.  Or announce a Lineage2-stype "open beta/beginning of retail" starting November 2.  Releasing WoW after HL2 is also a mistake, but a smaller one.  EQ2's "we'll be just as unfinished Dec 8th and Nov 8th so lets go grab some grindshare now" move is pure, unmitigated business brilliance.   EQ2's low level game does not suck, and they can get people hooked in 2 weeks.

[Paelos]

The fatalistic response to the release date of EQ2 is a bit disturbing. That's the vicious cycle we are supposed to be railing against, isn't it? The whole, "well now is better than later because we can always patch in content" thing should be bad business, not good.

They will get none of my money anyway, regardless of release date.

[Merusk]

The fatalistic response to the release date of EQ2 is a bit disturbing. That's the vicious cycle we are supposed to be railing against, isn't it? The whole, "well now is better than later because we can always patch in content" thing should be bad business, not good.

We should be, but consumers are weak sheep-minded beings.  MMOs have learned this and know that people will pay to beta. SOE is just taking advantage of this, and I can't blame SOE for it, since it's good business to (legaly) exploit stupid people.

I agree with ElGallo. This is a brilliant move for SOE because 1) anyone who was on the fence and trys-out EQ2 will get hooked before WoW releases and 2) they've blown less money over the course of time (shorter dev cycle, shorter beta and therefore less bandwith, etc. ) and are getting a ROI on that money now, rather than later.

Only the hardest of the catasses will get into the untested areas of EQ2 before the first month(s?) are over.  I don't expect their whiens will scare off anyone more than the early SWG or EQ whines did.  *IF* that stuff isn't fixed by the time the majority get there, though, yeah it'll be a wondeful cacophony of "WTF it's SWG part 2!"

[Alkiera]

heck, if I were Blizzard, and I could convince VU to let me... I'd push make my release date to Dec. 8, or into next year if possible.  Get the game absolutely smooth, clear up balance problems, etc, and launch around the time everyone's coming off their free month of EQ2... A month for most early adopters should be enough time for them to see the grind rear it's ugly head, and give them the chance to deal with the negative and positive aspects of the game.

Then you launch WoW, and have the in-store displays talk about how WoW is different from/better than EQ2.

Profit!

Alkiera

[Paelos]

I agree with Alkiera that Blizz should consider a possible pushback for profit motives if they can get the game humming to near bug-free stablization in that time. People will burnout on EQ2, and if you can get the hype train rolling at the same time you can steal that consumer wave. Besides, coming in a close second in the release game doesn't really matter. Now, its important to start distinguishing WoW from the competition.

[Jacob0883]

Blizzard is numero uno in the push back sector.  It has probably been done already.

[jpark]

I have a hard time picturing the disappointing launches of SWG and Shadowbane did not do severe damage to their forecasted player base in the long run.

First to market in MMORPGs, given the history of events, may be less imporant than First Impressions.

[Numtini]

I have a hard time picturing the disappointing launches of SWG and Shadowbane did not do severe damage to their forecasted player base in the long run.

But would longer before release actually have helped?

Last time I played SWG a few months ago I was still running into bugs from release.

[Rasix]

Yep, gotta agree with Gallo here that this is just brilliant on SOE's part.  

In my estimation, EQ2 will have a bad release. The server stability and bug squashing just isn't there.  But, it isn't to the point of "FUCK THIS GAME, I'M NEVER COMING BACK".  Someone at SOE really understands the market.  Their game is more about the hook and retention than WoW is.  EQ2 needs to hook people and get them attached to their characters because the game lacks the overall enjoyment of WoW (IMO of course) and currently lacks some of the polish.  WoW is more complete but EQ2 is fantastic at hiding how far from ready it actually is due to the excessively long grind.

This is really going cause WoW to lose a lot of the fence sitters. WoW is going to come off looking splendid in comparison to EQ2, but it won't matter when they've lost a significant portion of people that got hooked on the first "next big thing" out the door.

It's amazing just how well SOE knows their audience and how to manipulate them. Hats off.

[kaid]

Frankly its probably a great move for eq2. The content up to level 20 has been pretty well done for a while now.  A few quests need some fixing and the lag in antonica I needs to improve a bit more but the majority of folks will not see any of the more unfinished content probably for at least 3 to maybe 5 weeks.

I am sure it will get alot of board bitching but the main thing for the suites is get people in and playing money now. Appologize and fix post releaseas needed.

With another big competitor like WoW getting ready to release beating them to market is a huge thing for SOE.

kaid

[Furiously]

I would think some people would be asking for whichever is out for christmas.  I'd be very happy with another week delay of WOW - I'm going to be vacationing that week.

Or for the "here's your EQ2 since it was out, don't burn the house down while I am at work and you are on vacation." scenario.

[Shannow]

Do you folks think that these games have legs..and what I mean is..how long can SOE et al. keep producing these same sort of games before the market is just exhausted.
First off, will EQ II have more subscribers than EQ? If it doesnt do as well as EQ is SOE bound to come out with EQ III?
How many ppl will buy and play both WoW and EQ II? Is there enough market share for both of them?
With EQ II will SOE try to get everyone over to that and eventually bring EQ to an end?
Will Shannow stop with the fucktard questions?

Seriously Im interested to know what ppl forsee for the future with the release of these two games into the market. (Maybe we could start a new thread). The reason Im interested is the belief that the industry will at one point or another face a time where they simply cant keep recycling the same old shit and that if one of these games fails miserably (maybe more importantly EQ II) then we may see change that we are looking for.

Let me rephrase 'fail miserably'. Neither of these games , espcially in the short term, is going to fail miserably, but they may fail nevertheless. By that I mean they may fail simply by not being a EQ/DaOC smash hit...either they never reach the subscriber numbers seen by those games or they quickly start losing subscriber numbers after an initial burst of 6 months or so.

Again feel free to enlighten me here as I keep rambling...Im wondering if a game goes out and get 300k subscribers in its first 6 months but then quickly drops off to say 100k or less is it a failure? Or is that large amounts of cash they bring in initially enough to turn in a decent profit over dev + maintenance costs?

Basically what Im asking is 'What will be the definition of success for these two games and if these don't succeed do we see that having a long term effect on the MMOG industry, good or bad?'

[AcidCat]

EQ2's low level game does not suck.

I'll check the box marked "Strongly Disagree"

[HaemishM]

EQ2's low level game does not suck, and they can get people hooked in 2 weeks.

Not sure what game you were playing, but it pretty much sucked cock to me. Also, I think it's a HUGE mistake for EQ2 to release this early just to try to beat WoW out. Better to, oh, I don't know, FINISH the game first. Get rid of Lagtonica, maybe have some actual time to test the new "character diversity changes" and such. Hell, if you release early with a shitty game, it doesn't matter if you beat WoW or Jesus Christ himself to the punch, you'll take one in the chao sack. Whereas if you release later, make the game better, you let people get over the honeymoon period of WoW and pick up the stragglers.

This will just not end well.

[Fargull]

I agree with the HaemishM.

[Ardent]

I got tired of EQ2 before I ever reached Lagtonica. But I'm a veteran who can spot the evil Grind Wolf in pretty sheep's clothing.

If I could scrub my brain clean, and EQ2 was the very first MMORPG I ever played, I would get hooked. Hard. And I'm sure that's SOE's strategy for this move.

[SirBruce]

Morons (SOE and Blizzard).

Bruce

[Viin]

Do you folks think that these games have legs..and what I mean is..how long can SOE et al. keep producing these same sort of games before the market is just exhausted.
First off, will EQ II have more subscribers than EQ? If it doesnt do as well as EQ is SOE bound to come out with EQ III?

I think SOE will probably make EQ3 if EQ2 makes money. Otherwise, they probably will not make another EQ game unless it's on consoles or not an MMO. As far as subscribers go ... well, my guess is that it'll be about the same until a few months in, then EQ2 will nose dive. Or so my prayers go at night.

How many ppl will buy and play both WoW and EQ II? Is there enough market share for both of them?

I don't see very many people playing/paying for both. I may pay for EVE and WoW at the same time, but I really can't see justifying paying for two fantasy MMOs at the same time.

I also think that there is more than enough market share for both. Look at it this way: millions of people play video games, only a million or so play MMOs. So, in theory, there's plenty of room for both.

WoW has an advantage because of what Richard Bartle calls the 'newbie hose'. There are plenty of bnet players (not to mention just plain ol' Blizzard fans) who have never played an MMO who will make WoW their first. EQ2, on the other hand, is basically (imho) just catering to all the EQ players they've lost and want back on their bottom line - we probably won't see very many players from the "neverplayedanMMObefore" market letting EQ2 pop their cherry.

With EQ II will SOE try to get everyone over to that and eventually bring EQ to an end?

I'm willing to bet (at least $5) that they let EQ go until it dies. Right now it makes more money than any of their other MMO games (I think) and it would be silly to disrupt that. I do see a lot of people moving to EQ2, but it'd be interesting to see if they cancel their EQ2 subscription and continue to play the more stable/familiar/whatever EQ1.

[El Gallo]

Not sure what game you were playing, but it pretty much sucked cock to me.

I think they are aiming at the "I like MMOGs and want MMOG1.5" market rather than the "I hate MMOGs, the whole genre should be burned to the ground and replaced with something that I can't ever manage to describe but any idiot can see is vastly superior to anything ever put out by the industry so far because it is entirely populated with moronic cockgobblers" market.

[HaemishM]

Then they failed, because EQ2 is MMOG 1.0 Shiney Skinned Version.

[Shannow]

Then they failed, because EQ2 is MMOG 1.0 Shiney Skinned Version.

Hopefully this will hasten the end of this current generation of MMOG's. Whether that end will give us a dearth of investment in the genre or give rise to some new players doing some innovative things to tap the unused market remains to be seen.

Or, people really are stupid sheep and will keep lapping up the same crap in greater and greater numbers. Somehow I don't see that happening..colour me foolishly optimistic.

[BlackSky]

As far as the whole EQ2 vs WoW thing goes, I'm still in the middle. I know that everyone has their opinions about it, but I will try BOTH before making my desicion. I don't know if many people are like me, but even if EQ2 blows me away and I fall in love with it, I will STILL try WoW and try to go into in unbiased. I, for one, want to be able to weigh the pros and cons of both before throwing myself at the mercy of SOE or Bliz. But, from reading these posts, it seems that a lot of you guys think the masses will be swayed by EQ2 because it is releasing first. Why is that?

[kaid]

For those who are totally burnt out on MMRPG eq2 and wow are not going to bring back the warm fuzzy feelings. If they release the 8th or wait till next year for those who are truly burnt out on MMRPG it aint ever going to be your thing.


Most of the folks I know who I have been playing with are all enjoying EQ2 and most enjoyed WoW as well.

I so far have a character to level 20 in eq2 and I still have not really gotten much past the antonica zones such as stormhold and black burrow. There is a great deal of content and places to visit even at this point. leveling is pretty painless at least so far till 20 not quite as rapid as WoW but not that far behind either.

Honestly one thing I really like about eq2 is it is very group oriented. My favorite way to play MMRPG are with a group of friends who I always game with.

[El Gallo]

Then they failed, because EQ2 is MMOG 1.0 Shiney Skinned Version.

oic
<3

[Shannow]

For those who are totally burnt out on MMRPG eq2 and wow are not going to bring back the warm fuzzy feelings. If they release the 8th or wait till next year for those who are truly burnt out on MMRPG it aint ever going to be your thing.

Yes but what about those who aren't quite burnt out yet? They're not satisfied enough to stay with their current choice (EQ1, DaOC whatever) so they try out the shiny of EQ2/WoW and how long before they start to burn out on those espcially when they find nothing much has changed outside of prettier graphics.
I'm thinking we are headed into a cycle of diminshing returns for these MMOGs until something truely innovative comes out.

[AlteredOne]

Yes but what about those who aren't quite burnt out yet? They're not satisfied enough to stay with their current choice (EQ1, DaOC whatever) so they try out the shiny of EQ2/WoW and how long before they start to burn out on those espcially when they find nothing much has changed outside of prettier graphics.

Amen.  I bought the DAOC "Trials of Atlantis" expansion, and spent about 3 hours saying "oooh what interesting underwater graphics", about 2 weeks saying "WTF are these godawful quests that require 50 people," and about 30 seconds to hit the CANCEL button.

DnD is just a bunch of dice, books, and smelly people, and it is a great game.  EQ had crap graphics arguably even in 1999 at release, and it continues to hook 400k subscribers or so.  Graphics may help you lure some people in, but they are not going to stay if your gameplay is excrement.

[Nebu]

I got tired of EQ2 before I ever reached Lagtonica. But I'm a veteran who can spot the evil Grind Wolf in pretty sheep's clothing.

If I could scrub my brain clean, and EQ2 was the very first MMORPG I ever played, I would get hooked. Hard. And I'm sure that's SOE's strategy for this move.

Sums it up for me... well phrased.

I would have to bet that nearly everyone here feels this way about almost every mmog.  So... what is it that keeps dragging us back?  Is it some distant glimmer of hope that "this time will be different"?  I liken it to the nightmare relationship you're "friend" clung to as a teen thinking that they could magically make it all better.  I guess the reward for such wisdom is that we buy the box, play it until it gets stale, and then move on just as we would with a single player game.

[Jamiko]

I would have to bet that nearly everyone here feels this way about almost every mmog.  So... what is it that keeps dragging us back?  Is it some distant glimmer of hope that "this time will be different"?

A friend told me how much fun I would have if I just tried taking some red pills. He was right, it was fun. I had so much fun I couldn't wait to get home and do some more red pills. Eventually, I started getting sick of the red pills and it just wasn't getting me as excited as before. So I decided to try some of this new blue pill everyone was talking about. Sure, the blue pill was a little different, and it worked pretty well in the beginning. But it didn't take long to start feeling the same as with the reds. I then tried some greens and some oranges. Some lasted longer than others, but eventually they all ended up with me feeling the same way. Then I would remember how great the reds made me feel and I thought I would try them again. It wasn't the same so I had to quit again.

I'm sure this new purple pill coming out soon will be the best ever.

[AlteredOne]

So... what is it that keeps dragging us back?

Remember Haemish and his "Dear MMOG" letter?  Well there ya go.  Everybody longs for that newbie virgin feeling, back when they explored their first MMO with lust and longing, desperately craving it when they were apart.  Yet every time it ends tragically, until you are left as a jaded F13 poster, telling everybody how cynical you've become yet secretly hoping to rediscover your inner n00b.

[Rasix]

I'm sure this new purple pill coming out soon will be the best ever.

If the erection lasts more than 4 hours, be sure to consult a doctor.

[Shannow]

secretly hoping to rediscover your inner n00b.

We all want to rediscover our inner nOOb, the problem is no one has introduced anything sufficiently new (caveat: New AND well implemented) to the genre lately. We the sheep coming back, but! the difference is we last less and less which each new game until the point that we try the beta and go 'gack, no thanks' and don't even bother to buy the box.

The critical point is whether enough people (not just us jaded types on f13) are starting to hit that cycle. We'll see I guess.

[Righ]

Hopefully this will hasten the end of this current generation of MMOG's. Whether that end will give us a dearth of investment in the genre or give rise to some new players doing some innovative things to tap the unused market remains to be seen.

We're screwed whatever happens. If EQ2 is a huge success, the money men will pronounce the EQ2 formula as the only one worth banking on. If EQ2 is a dismal failure, the money men will pronounce the death of the MMOG and cease to finance them.

[jpark]

Hopefully this will hasten the end of this current generation of MMOG's. Whether that end will give us a dearth of investment in the genre or give rise to some new players doing some innovative things to tap the unused market remains to be seen.

We're screwed whatever happens. If EQ2 is a huge success, the money men will pronounce the EQ2 formula as the only one worth banking on. If EQ2 is a dismal failure, the money men will pronounce the death of the MMOG and cease to finance them.

Interesting.  If it fails though - we might see a surge in CoH instead.  I would regard that as a positive.

[Shannow]

Hopefully this will hasten the end of this current generation of MMOG's. Whether that end will give us a dearth of investment in the genre or give rise to some new players doing some innovative things to tap the unused market remains to be seen.

We're screwed whatever happens. If EQ2 is a huge success, the money men will pronounce the EQ2 formula as the only one worth banking on. If EQ2 is a dismal failure, the money men will pronounce the death of the MMOG and cease to finance them.

Dont be so sure. They know its out there so what some money men do is look for new ways to tap that cash. Yes some will drop out but others will stay in knowing that all we've seen is the first round..(think Atari early 1980s)

(Why is it I keep having an image of Timmy Turners dad from 'Fairy Oddparents' when talking about the mysterious 'money men' heh I have to stop watching tv with my son.:P)

[Margalis]

Why does it make a difference? I don't think a lot of MMORPGs are "try and then buy." I would assume a lot of people were in one of the betas or know people who are and already have made their choice.

You guys make it sound like people who are "on the fence" will buy EQ2, then stick with it and play it forever. More than likely they know that WoW will be coming out very soon after, and are planning on playing only one.

If you told me that the day EQ2 was coming out there would be a free open beta you might be right. But as it is you HAVE to buy the box to get hooked. The opening level content is meaningless, you can't get hooked on it without buying the box first.

People get hooked on demos, betas, etc. They don't get hooked on boxes they have to buy at full price. Once you decide to buy or not buy the box the decision is made.

The reality is that both games will lose money as more people will be more inclined to just stick with what they play now.