Ahh... The smell of delusional fanboy. How I've missed you

[Big Gulp]

Okay, for shits and giggles I went and checked out the EQ2 beta forums.  For some sick, perverted reason I get a real sense of schadenfreude watching the EQ2 apologists go into meltdown mode over the bad reviews springing up like mushrooms.

Anyone else take a sick amount of glee in watching this, or am I the only one?  I'd wager that a lot of you are immune to this by now, but I avoid shit like the Vault networks, and I haven't seen this level of delusion in many years.  It still doesn't top the feeling of satisfaction I got when the WW2OL players collectively tore Cornered Rat a new one, but it'll do for now.

[Kageru]

Oh yes, I love that sort of stuff, I wish the EQ2 beta forums were publically readable. Watching Smedley salley forth onto the public EQ2 boards made me realise how deeply on the defensive they are.

[Venkman]

If any company deserves this sorta treatment, it's SOE. I don't hate them as so many others do. I've never had a problem with them in fact, even during The Vision days. But they are victims of their own idiocy, even if that idiocy comes from other departments within the division.

Nobody should be showcasing an MMORPG before it's ready, and most MMORPGs aren't ready at Launch. CoH and WoW are still exceptions (and I discount L2 and FFXI because they had months of overseas players to ensure the game launched well here). But SOE, probably their marketing group, figured they had a hit so invite a crapload of *cough* "testers".

Well, the result was quite predictable. I can't imagine any SOE dev who's played WoW thinks EQ2 is as instantly sellable. MMORPGers love WoW almost right away. They learn to like EQ2, maybe. They may hate WoW after a few hours or months, or simply get bored with it, but leaving for boredom is better than leaving because you hate arbitrary hackneyed rules that make little sense and do nothing but get in the way of a good time.

We'll see how this turns out. I personally predict WoW will outsell EQ2 this holiday, and have consistently more accounts until late Winter, even with their retarded localization system. What happens beyond is anyone's guess.

[schild]

I was writing how this would happen on the boards and no one believed me. I wrote those first 2 bits in this forum on there way back as well. You know what? I don't give a shit anymore. Apologies to Raph and anyone else that may have a Steak in EQ2 - but when you shoot for the sky and miss, you can't forget to watch out for the arrow on the way back down. Gravity is a bitch.

[jpark]

From a business angle - it is now pretty clear as has been argued about in this community in the past that EQ2 likely cannot be positioned as a different product than EQ1.  System specs are about the only thing, catass investment aside, preventing complete market cannabilization.

There may be one other barrier - EQ1 sounds better in some ways.  I actually think EQ1 character creation yields more meaningfully unique avatars than EQ2.

[Resvrgam]

The sad thing is: there were warnings being given by concerned non-fanboys from day one and we were all told (essentially) to STFU and go away.

I hope Smed doesn't break out the fiddle while his "game" crashes and burns.  

It's sad how this protected industry keeps out new talent and yet struggles so desperately for that new killer app.   I guess they never learned their lessons from Atari (circa 1984) or the Dot-Bombs of the late 1990s.   Hopefully, someone will hear that "pop" sound associated with the removal of one's head from their own ass before the entire industry starts to crumble to the ground (Tokyo game show pretty much said  the end is nigh).

[stray]

before the entire industry starts to crumble to the ground (Tokyo game show pretty much said  the end is nigh).

And here I thought it had already crumbled (and what happened in Tokyo anyways?)

[Resvrgam]

The Tokyo Game Show had an abysmal turnout this year.  Since Japan is generally considered ground-zero for gaming and the direction of certain trends in the industry, the aftershocks will soon ripple through the rest of the game-markets in a snowball effect (or that's what happened last time).

[Margalis]

Nobody is looking for the next big thing. They are looking for the last big thing, part 2.

They say those who forget history are doomed to repeat, but devs take that too literally.

I think people get caught up in the specifics of history rather than the more fundamental reasons why things did well. Take Street Fighter 2 for example. There will never be a new fighting game that is as big as SF2 was. Because SF2 created an entirely new type of game. It was truly new and interesting and appealed to a segment that had not been appealed to before. Technically SF2 was the sequel to SF1, but it was really the heir of games like Pac-Man.

Similarly, the next huge MMORPG is not just going to be EQ or UO with more icing. One of the things that *defined* EQ and UO is that when they came out they were new. The newness was a big part of it! People get caught up in the individual rules or the level progressions or the classes or what have you, and don't see the big picture. They try to capture the game but leave out the spirit.

If you want to make music that has the same spirit as punk in the 70s, you don't make a 70s punk retro band. If you want to make a game that captures the spirit of EQ, you don't just clone EQ and add better graphics.

You really have to get back to more basic principles and examine the broad strokes that made it popular. It was addictive, it was new and exciting, it came with an initial sense of wonder, it brought a lot of people together at the same time and place, etc etc.

There is no reason why the spiritual successor can't be a semi-real time space combat game. One of the greatest things genre-creating games have going for them is then newness, and a clone loses that by definition.

[Signe]

I suppose it's just too early for me to read such philosophy, without the benefit of numerous cups of coffee.  For some reason, this thread is making me giggle uncontrolably.

[Big Gulp]

I suppose it's just too early for me to read such philosophy, without the benefit of numerous cups of coffee.  For some reason, this thread is making me giggle uncontrolably.

Same here.  We're talking about fucking video games and some people want to take it into the bizarro realm of comparing Kant and Hegel.  To you people I say, "You're a self-important jackass that vastly overestimates your own intellect".

[HaemishM]

I think EQ2 is poised to be a Sims Online flavor bomb, depending on release date. Now, I'm going on the assumption that they are still planning on releasing EQ2 in 2004, as their FAQ on the beta boards states. No one has officially said anything differently. If that is the case, EQ2 will be a big stinky bomb. If they hold back release until maybe next spring, it has a chance to become a much better game. Not even commenting on the things like lag and any bugs, the game isn't fun, doesn't degrade well to older hardware setups and is bland in the extreme.

I predict as I always have that EQ2 will do good to get 100k subscribers and keep that number for 6 months. WoW will garner maybe 200k subscribers. That is making no real statement on the gameplay of either game, because I think they are both polished turds in that department.

EQ2's system requirements, especially compared to WoW's ridiculously low system requirements, WILL be a purchasing factor. If you don't have a computer bought in the last year, there is no reason to play EQ2. EQ2 is not in anyway a radical departure from the gameplay of EQ1, and thus it's only audience are those who haven't gotten sick to death of EQ1, have a decent system, AND who are willing to drop all EQ1 time invested and start over.

That number is going to be frighteningly low.

[Soukyan]

I predict as I always have that EQ2 will do good to get 100k subscribers and keep that number for 6 months. WoW will garner maybe 200k subscribers. That is making no real statement on the gameplay of either game, because I think they are both polished turds in that department.

I'm gonna call your bluff here simply because you liked the steaming pile that is Shadowbane. While EQ2 and WoW may be polished turds in the gameplay department (a.k.a. repetitive auto-attack syndrome -- RAS), so is EQ1 and FFXI, but they've garnered tons of subs. Why? It's what people want. Mindless... umm... fun? Heh. Anyhow, not trying to be a snit, but I think you're wrong. EQ2 will get about the same as SWG - a healthy 350k. WoW can probably look at getting about the same, if that. I still think a lot of Bnet proponents are going to have a hard time swallowing a monthly fee, not that that is the bread and butter MMOG crowd anyhow.

[HaemishM]

Shadowbane reached a very under-satisfied segment of the market, PVP. There were NO OTHER OPTIONS like it on the market. The closest option on the market was DAoC, and it didn't have the killer instinct open PVP options that Shadowbane did. It started out a strong 50k at first, proving there was an untapped market for PVPers. It only lost so many subs because it was so goddamn buggy for so long.

However, look at the options available for those who like shiney PVE-fantasy worlds. DAoC, original EQ, FFXI, Horizons, AC1 and AC2, not to mention that when it's released, it'll have to compete with WoW as well. All of the games I just mentioned have less stringent hardware requirements, even FFXI, and established player bases, even WoW (though no one has had to pay for it yet). It has the positive AND negative brand of Everquest, which automatically leads people who know or have heard of such a name to assume a certain type of gameplay. It has to be several notches above ALL of those games, IMO, to be seen as a worthwhile purchasing option. It doesn't achieve that.

Both EQ1 and FFXI (to a lesser extent) had some pretty significant things going for them. EQ1 was the first 3d MMOG, at a time when UO was driving people away with rampant griefing. FFXI was not only the first MMOG of a very successful brand, but it was released as the first real cross-platform MMOG, straddling both PC and console game users. It's brand had rabid fanbois, and still does. EQ as a brand is nowhere near as strong as Final Fantasy.

[Murgos]

It's sad how this protected industry keeps out new talent and yet struggles so desperately for that new killer app.   I guess they never learned their lessons from Atari (circa 1984) or the Dot-Bombs of the late 1990s.   Hopefully, someone will hear that "pop" sound associated with the removal of one's head from their own ass before the entire industry starts to crumble to the ground (Tokyo game show pretty much said  the end is nigh).

It rediculous that you consider someone who has worked in the industry probably less than 10 years (pretty much the entire staff of every MMOG) to be an old, out of date has-been and by extension that its the new, fresh out of school mostly unskilled employees who can really contribute something.

[Resvrgam]

It rediculous that you consider someone who has worked in the industry probably less than 10 years (pretty much the entire staff of every MMOG) to be an old, out of date has-been and by extension that its the new, fresh out of school mostly unskilled employees who can really contribute something.

I'm not trying to draw that conclusion and hope that's not how it came off.  I'm referring to the microcosms that have been created to surround companies so full of themeslves that they take a Luddite approach to innovations and fresh ideas (thanks to risk-aversion).

People may become great at one time...but that time isn't indefinite.

e.g. Take a look at rock bands:  Some people use the term "selling out" which may or may not be a bad thing but, there's a definite change between a band's "struggling to make a name for themslves" period vs. their "I'm rich, Biotch" periods in which they no longer need that next song to survive.

Since both game design and music are "art," they seem to have that trend intrinsicly woven into them.  

I'm not saying "Damn the Man for keeping all us greenhorns out because we're better in every way."  I'm saying that when you only let yes-men into companies and people who share only your views, the end result isn't very fresh or innovative.  Everyone has the propensity to suck (and the new bloods are more likely to) but, without innovation and new ideas (that seem to only be coming from outside the microcosm), we're looking at stagnancy and that only leads to death.

[Murgos]

I'm not saying "Damn the Man for keeping all us greenhorns out because we're better in every way."  I'm saying that when you only let yes-men into companies and people who share only your views, the end result isn't very fresh or innovative.  Everyone has the propensity to suck (and the new bloods are more likely to) but, without innovation and new ideas (that seem to only be coming from outside the microcosm), we're looking at stagnancy and that only leads to death.

Sure, what I got out of your post was that there was no 'new blood' in MMOG's.  I'm just challenging that with as complex an entity as MMOG's are in general I would be seriously doubtful if 'new blood' as in new to the industry could contribute ANYTHING to MMOG design and development in a meaningful way.  Sure, there is a select list of lead designers but the fact is those guys don't really design diddly, they manage enourmous teams and steer the project, A difficult and full time task all in its own.  I would bet cash money that the vast majority of the input of one of the 'big names' is to look over someone elses proposal and say "That looks good." and to provide a face for the crowd that has, at least marginal, success associated with it..

The vast majority of the design work is almost undoubtedly done by the mid-level designers, those people with 6 - 8 years experience who have worked on 1 or 2 similar projects before.  I.e. the real new blood.

[personman]

Mega corporations are not the leaders of innovation.  They excel at extracting profit by minimizing risk because the stakes are so huge. exploiting proven models.  Innovation always comes from the fringes.  The role of the corporations is to watch the fringes and to make mainstream what shakes out.

It's actually a very good way to do things.  People speculate in entrepreneurs but they want their pensions invested in something where the risk is more managed.

[Nebu]

EQ2's system requirements, especially compared to WoW's ridiculously low system requirements, WILL be a purchasing factor. If you don't have a computer bought in the last year, there is no reason to play EQ2. EQ2 is not in anyway a radical departure from the gameplay of EQ1, and thus it's only audience are those who haven't gotten sick to death of EQ1, have a decent system, AND who are willing to drop all EQ1 time invested and start over.

That number is going to be frighteningly low.

I think that you have underestimated the "lure of leetness".  I happen to believe there to be a large number of EQ1 players that will sprint over to EQ2.  EQ2 presents a fresh start to them.  It's a place where they can begin the treadmill the same time as those now uber folk that started EQ1 some 5 years ago.  It's their opportunity to be an "old timer" in a new game.  This phenomenon created revitalized interest in AC1 with the opening of a new server and I think it will do even more with the SOE crowd.  

The other thing I see in my Magic 8 Ball (tm) is that WoW will attract more new players to mmogs than EQ2.  I think that WoW will have some surprising early success from this.  As a result, word of mouth will increase their subscriber base on a steady climb until the point where the mmog virgins realize what they have bought into and begin running back to their FPS and console games in disgust.  

I'm looking forward to watching the subscriber number trends on both of these titles... I just hope that they give Bruce some reliable numbers.  Bruce, as much as I give you shit I still appreciate the charts you publish.  I have my concerns with them at times, but I still appreciate them.

[HaemishM]

I don't expect SOE to give ANY reliable public numbers on EQ2. The best I think we can hope for there is "registered users," which we all know is a bullshit number. And unless it's bad, I expect Blizzard to trumpet their successes from every hilltop.

[Viin]

Shadowbane reached a very under-satisfied segment of the market, PVP. There were NO OTHER OPTIONS like it on the market. The closest option on the market was DAoC, and it didn't have the killer instinct open PVP options that Shadowbane did. It started out a strong 50k at first, proving there was an untapped market for PVPers. It only lost so many subs because it was so goddamn buggy for so long.

Yay GuildWars! ;)

 - Viin

[Venkman]

We're talking about fucking video games and some people want to take it into the bizarro realm of comparing Kant and Hegel

Or Adam Smith? You don't make an MMORPG without shit-tons of money, and you don't get shit-tons of money from nothing. Only ATITD maybe constitutes a garageband-like offering. But it looks it, and it has a rather narrow appeal. Everyone else, from M59 down through the next few years are starting as businesses and producing games as a result. That can't be ignored, particularly since "fun" to some people is what keeps crappy games alive and generating revenue.

The other thing I see in my Magic 8 Ball (tm) is that WoW will attract more new players to mmogs than EQ2.

Most have said this, and therefore I think they'd agree. WoW is this year's SWG, a not-so-new MMORPG concept that draws players into the genre for reasons beside it being an MMORPG. That's why I'm happy it is a good MMORPG ("good" is relative, of course). Of course, I'm not one of those who think Blizzard coulda shipped an empty box and sold as many. That's overused hyperbole, even when people said it of SWG.

It's also very telling how much of a cult status Blizzard has versus how reviled SOE is. People love hating SOE. Long ago I assumed that was general anti-establishment sentiment. But watching them screw things up so bad in some EQlive expansions, bork PS early on, and launch SWG as it was, I realize SOE is not worthy of any real praise except in their ability to collect money. That's not saying anything new to this crowd of course. It's also something I see they have an opportunity to change.

Even if I don't go with EQ2, I'm still going to be interested in how it launches.

I don't agree with Haemish's numbers (200k for WoW, 100k for EQ2), but I do agree with the proportions (WoW has easily twice the appeal). I do think those numbers will be larger though. The difference is that WoW will have a lot of unique first-time accounts from newbie MMORPGers while EQ2 will capture more veteran MMORPGers who keep their current game accounts open just in case they hate EQ2.

[Bawang]

..

[schild]

You get rid of that fucking signature right the fuck now.

Edit: And a preemptive thanks for when you do.

[Soukyan]

It burrnnnssssss usssss, my precioussssss!

[AOFanboi]

DAoC, original EQ, FFXI, Horizons, AC1 and AC2, not to mention that when it's released, it'll have to compete with WoW as well.

Not to belabor your point, but don't forget Saga of Ryzom, and EQOA for the PS2. Plus, AO is fantasy in a sci-fi skin, and that skin is pretty thin in the Shadowlands.

Even the only MMORPG to crash before EA canceled E&B, Rubies of Eventide, seems to live on, donation-based.

[AlteredOne]

Just imagine, soon it will be possible to spend maybe $200/month on subscriptions to MMORPG titles.   I would love to see reputable numbers on just how many subscriptions/month the average MMO player maintains.  Of course, the new Sony "Gold pass" and NCSoft equivalent will simplify the budgets of the hardcore.  

And where do the game publishers expect to find the next big wave of subscribers?  Is there a massive reservoir of 13-year-olds with access to credit cards, just waiting to be tapped?  Do they think the million+ cancelled EQ subscribers will suddenly leap back into the fray, forgetting why they turned their backs on the Vision?  Cannibalization seems far more likely.

[UD_Delt]

And where do the game publishers expect to find the next big wave of subscribers? Is there a massive reservoir of 13-year-olds with access to credit cards, just waiting to be tapped?

Nope but there is a massive amount of college age people who are going to be entering the business world and getting their own credit cards who grew up on video games.

I'm 28 and grew up playing games on an atari and PCjr. I can only imagine their will be growth when the PSone aged crowd starts getting more and more expendable cash.

It certainly will affect the console market and the sports game market moreso than the MMORPG market but I imagine there will be at least some trickle down.

[AlteredOne]

I had assumed that the ideal "hook point" for MMO titles would be college, due to kids being away from their parents, often being lonely and wanting mindless cheap entertainment.  But then again as you say, the immediate post-college years might be even more conducive to MMO games, since most grads will have a decent income and maybe even more free time than in college.  No pesky homework, fewer friends popping by, etc...  

With the heavy time commitments involved in just about every current MMO game, it's hard to get sucked into the genre if you have many real life responsibilities.

[stray]

Sure, what I got out of your post was that there was no 'new blood' in MMOG's. I'm just challenging that with as complex an entity as MMOG's are in general I would be seriously doubtful if 'new blood' as in new to the industry could contribute ANYTHING to MMOG design and development in a meaningful way. Sure, there is a select list of lead designers but the fact is those guys don't really design diddly, they manage enourmous teams and steer the project, A difficult and full time task all in its own. I would bet cash money that the vast majority of the input of one of the 'big names' is to look over someone elses proposal and say "That looks good." and to provide a face for the crowd that has, at least marginal, success associated with it..

The vast majority of the design work is almost undoubtedly done by the mid-level designers, those people with 6 - 8 years experience who have worked on 1 or 2 similar projects before. I.e. the real new blood.

Anyone know any specifics about the Cryptic team or how much work they had done before NCSoft came in? I read that Jack Emmert was new to the whole thing. Basically a comic book and PnP guy who saw potential in MMO's (from a player's POV). The other handful of company founders were either from the PnP or console world. Who they have on as their resident MMO guru I don't know.

Some of these guys may have not been "new blood" in the "fresh out of college sense", but they were naive enough and dissatisfied enough to bring a lot of new ideas to the MMO world and not create something entirely derivative. In fact, people are borrowing from them instead. "New blood" to me just means "outsider", whether a kid or not.

Telling from the ones that I know, I would argue that some of these "fresh out of college" kids are probably a worse choice for designing anything, and are part of the "machine" just as much as anyone else (i.e. They're not jaded enough). Once they graduate and find employment, it's even worse.

As for Cryptic, I'm sure they're not completely innocent of corporate suck up or what not, but I might just forgo the whole EQ2 vs WoW bullshit and sub to CoH again. Fuck it. At least I know that fresh ideas are already going into that game.

[HaemishM]

Who they have on as their resident MMO guru I don't know.

Answer: No one. Maybe that's why it's such a refreshing change despite being an iteration of the "kill to level" concept.

[Fargull]

Couple points on Cryptic

Direct from their website

"Cryptic Studios was formed in July of 2000 when a group of three former Atari employees and two members of the paper and pencil role-playing industry came together under one roof. The ex-Atarians had been circulating their technology demo under the name "Catch Games" but that changed when the RPGers came aboard with the "City of Heroes" concept. They had planned on calling their company "Crypteia" (an ancient Spartan secret society). After some discussions, compromises were made and 'Cryptic' was born. "

And

"response was positive and immediate, but it wasn't until Richard Garriott (of Ultima Online fame) and his team from NCsoft threw their hat into the ring, that Cryptic finally felt a true connection with a publisher."

And from the Forbes Article

"Lewis walked away with $17 million and began working on his Ph.D. in physical chemistry at UCLA. But before he left Broadcom, he had gotten a pitch from a childhood gaming friend, Richard Dakan, who asked him to fund an online game about heroes. By chance Lewis also met a former engineer from videogame maker Atari, Bruce Rogers, who was developing a new graphics engine and was working on a game of his own. Lewis brought the two men together."

Seems that alot of the shiny needs to be laid at Bruce Rogers feet...

[Resvrgam]

Mega corporations are not the leaders of innovation.  They excel at extracting profit by minimizing risk because the stakes are so huge. exploiting proven models.  Innovation always comes from the fringes.  The role of the corporations is to watch the fringes and to make mainstream what shakes out.

It's actually a very good way to do things.  People speculate in entrepreneurs but they want their pensions invested in something where the risk is more managed.

Very true.  In a business sense, that's a great approach to the market. The problem with MMOGs is: there's really is no fringes due to the massive financial demands of these types of games.  Without any way for amateurs to MOD MMOGs (it'd be nice if there was some type of dumbed down, 3D "Make your own MMOG for dummies" SDK) MMOGs will never get that Counterstrike-Principle that FPSes have enjoyed: amateurs MOD easily accessible engine and reinvent deathmatch, capture the flag and other interesting gaming conventions beyond "get key, unlock door, go to next level" and when companies see the success, they buy up the rights and/or rip them off and make their own titles based on what the amateurs created.

With the ungodly resources needed to even attempt a MMOG, only the veteran financially-backed developers are capable of starting a dot-bomb for the 2000's.   It'd be cool to see some type of think-tank or "Project Greenlight" started to help give the genre a well-needed kick in the ass.  I know I'm getting tired of level-treadmills and camping/looting mechanics that plague these games.  

Though, to its credit, CoH was a great baby-step in a new direction.

[jpark]

I don't expect SOE to give ANY reliable public numbers on EQ2. The best I think we can hope for there is "registered users," which we all know is a bullshit number. And unless it's bad, I expect Blizzard to trumpet their successes from every hilltop.

I think Blizzard could probably do that now.  While some of us don't like the graphics - I gotta think its pretty much evident now that WoW is a better improvement on EQ than EQ2 is based on the comments I have seen posted.

[Cyraxx]

Margalis post (24 posts up or so) is the smartest thing I have read all day. :) ... This board is alot better than the official EQ2 board