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Topic: WoW Reaches 10... (Read 35088 times)
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Slyfeind
Terracotta Army
Posts: 2037
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I like how they're upfront about their definition of "subscriber." I always wondered what they meant by that.
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"Role playing in an MMO is more like an open orchestra with no conductor, anyone of any skill level can walk in at any time, and everyone brings their own instrument and plays whatever song they want. Then toss PvP into the mix and things REALLY get ugly!" -Count Nerfedalot
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Abelian75
Terracotta Army
Posts: 678
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They've actually included that definition in all their press releases about numbers, or at least all of the ones I have seen.
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Venkman
Terracotta Army
Posts: 11536
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Yep. Really quells the naysayers, a lot more than they were ever quelled by Lineage numbers, for example  I am particularly intrigued by them having hit 2.5mil in North America. I didn't think they'd continue to grow like that. Good for them!
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« Last Edit: January 22, 2008, 01:54:10 PM by Darniaq »
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Xanthippe
Terracotta Army
Posts: 4779
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Three year old game and subscriptions continue to climb. I'm impressed.
I wonder how many paid, discrete accounts they have had since launch.
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naum
Terracotta Army
Posts: 4263
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Really isn't much in terms of competition… …at least in a polished, cross platform, bug free implementation of an MMO…
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"Should the batman kill Joker because it would save more lives?" is a fundamentally different question from "should the batman have a bunch of machineguns that go BATBATBATBATBAT because its totally cool?". ~Goumindong
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Trippy
Administrator
Posts: 23657
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Time for an updated chart!  You can see the latest figure represents an increase in growth rate from last year. I haven't checked the The9 WoW numbers but most likely it's from an increase in the number of players in China from the release of Burning Crusade near the end of last year. Anybody want to predict how high it's going to go before it plateaus? 
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pants
Terracotta Army
Posts: 588
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The bit I find most interesting about that chart, and had never noticed it before, is the first few months. I'm assuming July 05 was when it was released in China, thus the big jump. However in the first 6 months from Nov 04 to March 05 it hit 2 million - ie 5 times what EQ did at its highest after 3-4 years of being out. Thats some pretty impressive numbers, especially when you consider thats without China, and also before WoW became something that the average Joe knew about - MMORPGs were still pretty unknown to the gaming public and general public at that stage.
Maybe this is all old news (well of course it is, over 2.5 years old as a matter of fact), but I had never realsed its early non-Asian success was so significant.
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Fabricated
Moderator
Posts: 8978
~Living the Dream~
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Chartzzz
Good for Blizzard. I hope they destroy the entire market for all the shitpiles that come out. Polished and bug-free wins the day people.
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"The world is populated in the main by people who should not exist." - George Bernard Shaw
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tazelbain
Terracotta Army
Posts: 6603
tazelbain
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Doomed, I tell you. DOOOOOOMED.
Its not surprising. Nobody is really trying to take the pie from them. Half are content to nible their small piece and the other half aren't even capible enoungh to get a piece for themselves.
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"Me am play gods"
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Archimedian
Terracotta Army
Posts: 29
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Doomed, I tell you. DOOOOOOMED.
Its not surprising. Nobody is really trying to take the pie from them. Half are content to nible their small piece and the other half aren't even capible enoungh to get a piece for themselves.
I think in order to steal a piece of the WoW pie you have to follow their formula. No, not make a WoW clone but establish a game company, pump out quality single player, multiplayer games for 10+ years, establish your level of quality for software and engaging game play. Then once you have a brand that people trust and expect good things from convert all those one time paying consumers into monthly subs. Then go out and market the shit out of your game. Yep that's the WoW recipe right there. I'm shocked more people don't follow it. Most of them try to hop into the MMO step expecting WoW killer results and end up just with lack luster results. I also think Blizzard stole the model from Origin. UO is a pretty similar case study, only EQ was able to bipass the necessary steps. But when you offer 3d in a 2d world I guess you can get away with it once. I'd be interested to see how their numbers looked pre-xmass and then post. While the chart is nice I'm sure there are some dips and valleys in there.
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WayAbvPar
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Doomed, I tell you. DOOOOOOMED.
Its not surprising. Nobody is really trying to take the pie from them. Half are content to nible their small piece and the other half aren't even capible enoungh to get a piece for themselves.
I think in order to steal a piece of the WoW pie you have to follow their formula. No, not make a WoW clone but establish a game company, pump out quality single player, multiplayer games for 10+ years, establish your level of quality for software and engaging game play. Then once you have a brand that people trust and expect good things from convert all those one time paying consumers into monthly subs. Then go out and market the shit out of your game. Yep that's the WoW recipe right there. I'm shocked more people don't follow it. Most of them try to hop into the MMO step expecting WoW killer results and end up just with lack luster results. I also think Blizzard stole the model from Origin. UO is a pretty similar case study, only EQ was able to bipass the necessary steps. But when you offer 3d in a 2d world I guess you can get away with it once. I'd be interested to see how their numbers looked pre-xmass and then post. While the chart is nice I'm sure there are some dips and valleys in there. Bioware ftw?
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When speaking of the MMOG industry, the glass may be half full, but it's full of urine. HaemishM
Always wear clean underwear because you never know when a Tory Government is going to fuck you.- Ironwood
Libertarians make fun of everyone because they can't see beyond the event horizons of their own assholes Surlyboi
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LK
Terracotta Army
Posts: 4268
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Bioware isn't known for making good games (I'm not saying what you think I'm saying).
Good stories and world settings? Sure.
But most of what I've seen out of them are poorly implemented UI / other people's rules systems (everything D&D and d20 including KOTOR) or poorly implemented UI / rules systems (Mass Effect).
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"Then there's the double-barreled shotgun from Doom 2 - no-one within your entire household could be of any doubt that it's been fired because it sounds like God slamming a door on his fingers." - Yahtzee Croshaw
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UnSub
Contributor
Posts: 8064
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I think in order to steal a piece of the WoW pie you have to follow their formula.
No, not make a WoW clone but establish a game company, pump out quality single player, multiplayer games for 10+ years, establish your level of quality for software and engaging game play. Then once you have a brand that people trust and expect good things from convert all those one time paying consumers into monthly subs. Then go out and market the shit out of your game.
Yep that's the WoW recipe right there. I'm shocked more people don't follow it. Most of them try to hop into the MMO step expecting WoW killer results and end up just with lack luster results. I also think Blizzard stole the model from Origin. UO is a pretty similar case study, only EQ was able to bipass the necessary steps. But when you offer 3d in a 2d world I guess you can get away with it once.
I'd be interested to see how their numbers looked pre-xmass and then post. While the chart is nice I'm sure there are some dips and valleys in there.
Tell me this was meant to be green and I've fallen into a sarchasm. Because what you've just said is "in order to beat Blizzard, you have to be exactly like Blizzard". Except that at the end of your 10 year respected single / multiplayer title development, when you theoretically start work on your MMO, Blizzard is STILL 10 years ahead of you and still holds all of the advantages. Imitators rarely exceed those who they try to duplicate. It's easy to say now, "Oh, Blizzard's formula works so well", but at the time of launch for WoW it was a huge gamble that they would get the numbers they needed to justify the US $55m price tag. A lot of the people who used to be in Blizzard have left to pursue other things, so it's not like Blizzard is one monolithic unchanging entity that has the ways it works fixed in stone. And then, as you said, you've only really got UO (which had years worth of respected single player titles behind it) which wasn't as successful as EQ. And while I'm sure the 3D graphics - another risk in an era where 3D video cards weren't common - helped, I'm more willing to bet the game-orientate nature of EQ (as opposed to UO's sandbox) helped it attract and keep more players. It's probably only players and investors who want to compare everything else to WoW's player numbers. For a lot of developers, I'm sure that they'd love 10 million players in their MMO, but are pretty happy when the game is profitable at 100k and they get a regular pay cheque. At the end of the day, fortune smiled on Blizzard. A lot of factors converged and helped them over a tipping point to make what is probably the most profitable game ever. No company following that point in time is going to be able to capture the same convergence and reap the same rewards. They'd be foolish to try, especially if step 1 is "Devote 10 years of your life to building a reputation".
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Venkman
Terracotta Army
Posts: 11536
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You don't need to be Blizzard. You "just" need a solid gamer-relevant IP, bottomless pit of cash, handsoff publisher (or VC), industry reknown for solid end to end experiences, competent partners in worldwide territories, and the internal skill at managing vision with an external skill in hiring the right people.
"Just do that" and you'll be raking in cash too.
Or be like the rest of the known universe and play to your strengths. Don't overpromise what you can't deliver, find your competitive edge, identify your actual market, and hit them. That's competence in all the areas that matter: vision, business, development and marketing.
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schild
Administrator
Posts: 60350
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You don't need to be Blizzard. You "just" need a solid gamer-relevant IP, bottomless pit of cash, handsoff publisher (or VC), industry reknown for solid end to end experiences, competent partners in worldwide territories, and the internal skill at managing vision with an external skill in hiring the right people. So. What you're saying is: You need to be Blizzard. Unless you're Pokemon. And Nintendo gets their fucking head in the game. 
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tmp
Terracotta Army
Posts: 4257
POW! Right in the Kisser!
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You need to be Blizzard. Unless you're Pokemon. And Nintendo gets their fucking head in the game.
Pokemon MMO would catch all WoW subscribers.
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Ratman_tf
Terracotta Army
Posts: 3818
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Bottom line: You can't distill the essence of success of WoW and capture it in a bottle.
It's successful because it's WoW.
And isn't the Pokemon fad over by now? Big N isn't going to develop towards the creepy 30somethings who still play that game.
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 "What I'm saying is you should make friends with a few catasses, they smell funny but they're very helpful." -Calantus makes the best of a smelly situation.
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Venkman
Terracotta Army
Posts: 11536
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Pokemon's still going. But you don't bother with a $75mil fullscreen MMO for that crowd. You bang something together for a keg and three pizzas, and rake in the pure profit.
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schild
Administrator
Posts: 60350
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Darniaq, Pokemon is the only existing license that can rival WoW.
For a keg and 3 pizzas. And a Wii MMO, they can rival WoW.
Game. Set. Match.
Even I'd play the shit out of it.
And it would have the only good PVP in the entire genre.
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Venkman
Terracotta Army
Posts: 11536
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I didn't say Pokemon would be a bad idea. I was saying that what you need to deliver a Pokemon MMO people would play is a lot less effort than it took to make WoW. Imagine WoW as a browser-based Flash somethingorother followup to Warcraft III. Wouldn't work, because their primary audience were those already trained to expect more. Meanwhile, there's only been a long string of relatively low budget games and cartoons for Pokemon. I wouldn't even bother making it for a console right away. Browser-based all day long, take about 6 to 9 months to make, maybe $3mil if you integrate any sort of microtransactions, and just launch in the U.S. They could make it free then grow it over a year to expand beyond US, maybe go Wii (I don't think that's required at all btw), integrate some Webkinz ID number things with the cards... Porches all around. You need to be Blizzard. Replace that with SOE six years ago 
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schild
Administrator
Posts: 60350
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Replace that with SOE six years ago Find where I would _ever_ say that. Ever. The only reason to go Wii would be to guarantee a win in the console race.
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Venkman
Terracotta Army
Posts: 11536
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So.
What you're saying is:
You need to be Blizzard. Unless you're Pokemon. And Nintendo gets their fucking head in the game.
What'd I miss? I was not saying you need to be Blizzard. I didn't want you thinking I was saying that either because it would be "SOE" six years ago. I wasn't saying you said "SOE" either though. Shit I'm tired. Going to bed. Otherwise, yes. Wii Pokemon MMO would be a huge win. Not sure if that'd do better than a browser-based game though, in terms of launch anyway. But either way, win all around.
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tazelbain
Terracotta Army
Posts: 6603
tazelbain
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No doubt WoW did a good job distilling basic essence of EQ. But there are a lot of content agnostic lessons to learn. Easy to grok. Runs well an average computers. The "fun" is available early. Player frustrations are minimized.
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"Me am play gods"
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Ratman_tf
Terracotta Army
Posts: 3818
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No doubt WoW did a good job distilling basic essence of EQ. But there are a lot of content agnostic lessons to learn. Easy to grok. Runs well an average computers. The "fun" is available early. Player frustrations are minimized.
Sure. Devs would be fools not to look at the best bits of WoW when designing their own games. F'rex: look at Tabula Rasa's poor excuse for a chat box. All the text in that game is unfriendly and difficult to read. Compare to WoW's big friendly letters. A player doesn't have to squint to read quest text.
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 "What I'm saying is you should make friends with a few catasses, they smell funny but they're very helpful." -Calantus makes the best of a smelly situation.
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naum
Terracotta Army
Posts: 4263
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Darniaq, Pokemon is the only existing license that can rival WoW.
For a keg and 3 pizzas. And a Wii MMO, they can rival WoW.
Game. Set. Match.
Even I'd play the shit out of it.
And it would have the only good PVP in the entire genre.
Yes. Nintendo asleep at the switch. Good that they got all those sales and can't make enough Wii fast enough… …but once you got a toolbooth constructed and propagated, it just silly stupid not to exploit it… Pokemon MMO on Wii would own.
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"Should the batman kill Joker because it would save more lives?" is a fundamentally different question from "should the batman have a bunch of machineguns that go BATBATBATBATBAT because its totally cool?". ~Goumindong
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Simond
Terracotta Army
Posts: 6742
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Doomed, I tell you. DOOOOOOMED. It's almost a shame Geldon got banned prior to this press release - it was always entertaining watching him squirm and weasel his way around them.  I'd be interested to see how their numbers looked pre-xmass and then post. While the chart is nice I'm sure there are some dips and valleys in there. 9.3 million subs in November (their previous announcement), so just over two-thirds of a million added over the holidays.
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"You're really a good person, aren't you? So, there's no path for you to take here. Go home. This isn't a place for someone like you."
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Merusk
Terracotta Army
Posts: 27449
Badge Whore
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Bottom line: You can't distill the essence of success of WoW and capture it in a bottle.
It's successful because it's WoW.
And isn't the Pokemon fad over by now? Big N isn't going to develop towards the creepy 30somethings who still play that game.
It's still the same game as it was in 1998, and it's attracting the same demographic it first did. Both my kids (9 and 4) love pokemon and play the shit out of it on the DS when they aren't playing chibi-robo or Nintendogs. It's really damn funny to hear the 4 year old say, "It's Pidgey! Dad I caught a pidgey!" in that tone of awe and excitement only kids have.
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The past cannot be changed. The future is yet within your power.
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Baldrake
Terracotta Army
Posts: 636
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We all know that WoW's big lesson is the polish. This more than anything took the game out of the basement and into the mass market.
But the real difficulty in replicating WoW's success is that they have now "done" Diku. Anyone else has to come up with something significantly different in gameplay. And experience has shown that designers have had a really hard time coming up with an MMO concept that is different, fun and compelling. PotBS, Conan and TR all tried. At least two of them failed; maybe all three.
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Kirth
Terracotta Army
Posts: 640
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Games Workshop has a pretty large, and I think under-estimated fan base. WAR has that going for it, if they can lure table top players into the MMO.
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Surlyboi
Terracotta Army
Posts: 10966
eat a bag of dicks
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Good for Blizzard. I hope they destroy the entire market for all the shitpiles that come out. Polished and bug-free wins the day people.
God, I hope that never comes to pass. A polished bug-free turd is still a turd.
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Tuned in, immediately get to watch cringey Ubisoft talking head offering her deepest sympathies to the families impacted by the Orlando shooting while flanked by a man in a giraffe suit and some sort of "horrifically garish neon costumes through the ages" exhibit or something. We need to stop this fucking planet right now and sort some shit out. -Kail
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ajax34i
Terracotta Army
Posts: 2527
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A polished bug-free turd is still a turd.
Everyone keeps saying that, but in truth, a polished bug-free (bacteria are done with it) turd is oil. The games that still have bugs and lack polish are turds. In my book, as soon as there's polish and lack of bugs, the game is above that classification. It may be boring, in the wrong genre for me, not innovative, whatever; it may not be the best or even "good", but it's above the bottom rank.
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Venkman
Terracotta Army
Posts: 11536
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Surly, WoW is not a turd. You just don't like it. There's a big difference.
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slog
Terracotta Army
Posts: 8234
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I think Microsoft could do a MMORPG done right with a 6 year plan. They have the finances, and are willing to take huge losses upfront to get it done (see the XBox). They would screw it up by doing things like making it an Xbox exclusive and Vista only.
If they could just keep the executive hands off, then it could happen. Of course, that's like saying "if only the politicians could just work with the other party."
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Friends don't let Friends vote for Boomers
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Nebu
Terracotta Army
Posts: 17613
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Good for Blizzard. I hope they destroy the entire market for all the shitpiles that come out. Polished and bug-free wins the day people.
Polished yes. Bug-free? Almost... but not quite.
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"Always do what is right. It will gratify half of mankind and astound the other."
- Mark Twain
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