An Analysis of MMOG Subscription Growth - Vesion 8.0

[SirBruce]

http://pw1.netcom.com/~sirbruce2/Subscriptions.gif">Image changed to link for those with crappy resolutions
http://pw1.netcom.com/~sirbruce/Subscriptions.html

Bruce

Edited for your convenience by your friendly moderators.

[Neph]

FF11 still pwning, excellent.

[taolurker]

Heh, It's Bruce!

Your graphs are nice and all, but they are basically estimates based on "released" numbers
 which can possibly be inflated. It is a close approximation to what the numbers probably are,
but other than that it's only useful as a collection of such statistics that are quietly whispered all over
the place.  

Just one question Bruce...

After all the constant rejection and bans that follow you around why is it that you still care, or continue
to care enough to lurk even while banned, waiting for the opportunity to inject yourself once more?

BTW good job breaking the formatting on your own thread, and it's no wonder you have such a rep...
hello common sense calling?

[Mesozoic]

Thanks Bruce.

For the record, this thing is getting harder and harder to read.  I THINK the chart indicates three expansions to DAoC, when in fact there are only two (Shrouded Isles and Trials of Atlantis).  But who knows, maybe I'm looking at a slightly different shade of blue.

[shiznitz]

You aren't. I see 3 expansions for DAoC as well.

[Fargull]

My guess on the DAOC third would be the housing expansion, which was free.

[Evangolis]

Thanks Bruce.

For the record, this thing is getting harder and harder to read.  I THINK the chart indicates three expansions to DAoC, when in fact there are only two (Shrouded Isles and Trials of Atlantis).  But who knows, maybe I'm looking at a slightly different shade of blue.

Yup, it is hitting a readability issue, particularly for colorblind folks like me.  I'd suggest breaking out the 100K minus group as a different graph.  There are enough examples to divide it, at this point.

[Riley]

Thats for the update - its always interesting to see the latest estimates so we can debate over them for the next 6 months :)

[Venkman]

To clarify one of your points on your site:

However, an official statement released by John Smedley, President of SOE, in March 2004 suggest there are currently between 200,000 and 300,000 subscribers and that SW:G is “second largest MMO in the North American market”. I assume he is discounting Ragnarok Online and possibly FFXI in such a statement, so I’ve put the current number at 275,

That estimate includes FFXI North America, which puts FFXI in third place behind SWG and EQ. I don't know about Ragnarok.

[HaemishM]

These estimates originate from somewhere south of your navel.

In other words, they are almost completely pulled from your furry little anus.

[Sloth]

I didn't play FFXI very long. I didn't like that more than half the server population didn't speak English, and many of the japenese would't even group with you if you were American. Plus the stupid World Pass nonsense just seemed pointless. I also hated the graphics and controls.

I did like all the quests though and the cutscenes. The PVE Signet stuff to capture land was good too, but my servers elf nation was so far in the lead it wasn't much of a contest anymore.

[Numtini]

I still don't see why everyone wants to subtract the Japanese subs from FFXI, but wants to leave the European subs in for EQ and DAOC or the European and Asian subs in for UO.

[Sloth]

i'm not anti anyone playing. I just want to play on a server where the majority of people speak English. I got nothing against foreigners, I just want to be able to communicate easily.

[Snowspinner]

It is a close approximation to what the numbers probably are, but other than that it's only useful as a collection of such statistics that are quietly whispered all over the place.  

I missed where collecting those statistics into one place was a bad thing.

Just one question Bruce...

After all the constant rejection and bans that follow you around why is it that you still care, or continue
to care enough to lurk even while banned, waiting for the opportunity to inject yourself once more?

As I recall, you''ve gotten a few bans too.  At this point, Bruce's posts have, frankly, been less idiotic than the posts of the people who ignore everything he says in favor of insulting him.

[Kylaer]

Having a visual depiction of the numbers is always good, but the most recent section is getting really hard to read. How about having a second version of the graph that starts at, say, July '01 (since that's where the number of games really starts to climb), so all that action isn't crammed into 1/3 of the graph space?

[HRose]

Numbers about DAoC, EQ, SWG and UO seem exact.
I don't believe FFXI, they never released the number of active subscribers. If you have a source, Sir Bruce, I'd like to see it.

[HaemishM]

These estimates originate from somewhere south of your navel.

In other words, they are almost completely pulled from your furry little anus.

I've already told you the source.

[taolurker]

It is a close approximation to what the numbers probably are, but other than that it's only useful as a
collection of such statistics that are quietly whispered all over the place.  

I missed where collecting those statistics into one place was a bad thing.

I didn't say it was a bad thing, excepting possibly who it was collecting them.

I also think you missed the thread in GenDis where Soul hinted this was likely from someone on staff...
Not the actual Bruce.

Just one question Bruce...

After all the constant rejection and bans that follow you around why is it that you still care, or continue
to care enough to lurk even while banned, waiting for the opportunity to inject yourself once more?

As I recall, you''ve gotten a few bans too.  At this point, Bruce's posts have, frankly, been less idiotic
than the posts of the people who ignore everything he says in favor of insulting him.

If you call losing to Bruce in SurviverWT a few bans, and consider his brand of idiocy acceptable
then you obviously have questionable tastes.

As for me, I lurk because I care about the games, and every once and a while decide I need to say something
relevent to them. Although one forums is as good as another it's like that song from Cheers:
"You wanna go where everybody knows your name".

I know you can relate Snowspinner, since you obviously gave up ranting about games and come around
simply to cause groaning in every political thread possible.

[Anonymous]

Could you kindly point to where I "hint" that this SirBruce account is actually a staff member?  I seem unable to find it.  All I find is a specious claim by one Arcadian Del Sol.

[taolurker]

I don't know whether to laugh or cry. I've already removed one fake SirBruce account, and banned
the IP. You think I'd stand for someone on STAFF to create a fake SirBruce account?

You sir, are a cad.

I still wasn't sure wthether this was meaning that this was the real Bruce, and the "cad" could've been the staff member or Arc.
I also assumed that since one Bruce account was banned that maybe Arc was right and it was a staff member being called a "cad".

[Anonymous]

... I'm in a state of disbelief that I have to be clear about this, but the cad in this case is Arcadian.

Critical thinking and reading comprehension are not your strong suits, are they?

[WayAbvPar]

but the cad in this case is Arcadian.

THIS case? =P

I kid.

[Comstar]

Intersting to note, Earth and Beyond is a lot higher than the clucth of niche games, but is being cancelled presuably because it's not near to everquest.  

I agree on the graph getting cluttered. Take the guys under 100,000 and split them from the ones above it.  It's the rough difference nitch games and the big ones.

For any interested, Killer of CRS (WW2OL) made a mention this week that it's got 12K+ subscribers, which you can't see very well on the chart.

[Numtini]

I don't believe FFXI, they never released the number of active subscribers

I was playing when they announced the 500k figure. I certainly thought the "playonline accounts" meant inactives and such.

However, looking at the server populations, they support 500k as the number of active accounts.

[HaemishM]

Intersting to note, Earth and Beyond is a lot higher than the clucth of niche games, but is being cancelled presuably because it's not near to everquest.

Considering that I don't believe EA has ever acknowledged or released any numbers on E&B, I'd take that number with a very large grain of salt.

[Snowspinner]

Bruce rates his confidence in his E&B numbers as a B, so I'd take it with a medium grain of salt.

[Sloth]

Intersting to note, Earth and Beyond is a lot higher than the clucth of niche games, but is being cancelled presuably because it's not near to everquest.  

I agree on the graph getting cluttered. Take the guys under 100,000 and split them from the ones above it.  It's the rough difference nitch games and the big ones.

For any interested, Killer of CRS (WW2OL) made a mention this week that it's got 12K+ subscribers, which you can't see very well on the chart.

While I'm sure E&B isn't a big time seller, EA isn't slow with the axe. Heres what I don't understand, why not slip E&B into some kind of Package deal with UO and UOX? EA also has other online games they could put in there. It seems to be a better idea than just chunking the entire investment down the toliet.

Edit: Bruces big chart is breaking the thread, I hate horizontal scrolling to read.

[Foix]

Resurrecting this thread to provide numbers for Bruce and/or anyone who might be interested.

City of Heroes - 100,000+
Lineage 2 - 60,000+

From here.

[ajax34i]

Interesting.  I think Lin2 had 74k at the beginning of the open beta, and 120k at the end of it (Game accounts autoregistered for the boards, and the boards displayed "xxxx registered").  If it's back to 60k, means that only the fans stayed.

Their initial predictions that 3 servers would be sufficient were probably correct.  Unfortunately they had to add another 4 extra to accomodate the open-beta'ers.

CoH yeah I assumed it would be a success.

[Soukyan]

Interesting.  I think Lin2 had 74k at the beginning of the open beta, and 120k at the end of it (Game accounts autoregistered for the boards, and the boards displayed "xxxx registered").  If it's back to 60k, means that only the fans stayed.

Their initial predictions that 3 servers would be sufficient were probably correct.  Unfortunately they had to add another 4 extra to accomodate the open-beta'ers.

CoH yeah I assumed it would be a success.

CoH has 11 game servers running at the moment and Lineage 2 NA has 8. From what I've been told, only 3 or 4 of those 8 really get heavy on the traffic during prime time.

[HaemishM]

I think we can officially call CoH an unqualified success. Of course, the true litmus test is how many stay for after the free month.