EQ2/WoW - Final chance for one size fits all mega-games?

[Riggswolfe]

There are a lot of people that quit EQ due to burnout but enjoyed the mechanics. Me included. These people will flock to EQ2. If half of the people that played EQ for 1 year or more and quit come to EQ2, the game will have 150k subs. That number comes directly from my ass.

Well if you go to the EQ2 boards they are very careful to say that the mechanics (other than the tired old manipulate the crappy AI excuse me, aggro control combat mechanic) are not very much like EQ1 at all. It is said it is more like EQ:OA. (I haven't played OA so can't comment. Haven't played EQ2 for that matter.)

WoW on the other hand is directly going after the EQ playerbase. It's very blatant and alot of the gameplay feels very EQish. In fact, my major complaints with the game are the parts of it that feel like EQ.

[UnSub]

Given the number of competing titles and that the mmog market has started to mature, we won't ever see one or two titles with total market share again.

But we will see one or two titles dominate the market, with a number of smaller titles hovering around the edges. This transition will probably come with the demise of EQ - there is probably part of the player base there who, when the EQ lights are turned off, won't go and play another mmog. With EQ dead (or left to die) new players to the mmog genre will have a number of equally attractive titles (well, all dolled up titles anyway) to choose from.

What is interesting from this point out is how the mmog market grows. Ignore the raw numbers - who cares if WoW gets 400k players if that's only 1% of the market? It will be interesting to see how long it will take for players to accept subscription payment models in large numbers (ie millions of players). Paying for online gaming is still a bit of novelty outside of boards like this - how many times have you seen "do you have to pay a monthly fee?" threads on mmog forums?

Also, I think what the market considers a mmog will change. Currently mmorpgs dominate - perhaps it will be an mmorts or mmofps that truly brings about the Next Big Thing.