Sony cutting jobs

[Azazel]

When the new revision comes out?

I'd like to like the PSP, but I just cant make myself care about handhelds...

[Big Gulp]

I just cant make myself care about handhelds...

Same thing here.  What would I use one for?  To keep myself occupied on the once yearly trip to the Secretary of State's to renew my license/plates?

I don't ride the school bus anymore, and even then I could always torment the other kids.  Zero need/desire for a handheld here.

[Murgos]

The PSP is going to come back in the big way.

I doubt it.  The preponderance of new titles are for the DS.  I've been considering both of them for months now and the PSP->PS3 thing is interesting but without the games I just don't see it.  The games thing is a feedback loop, once good stuff starts coming out more people buy the system meaning more developers want to develop for it and thus more people want to buy it.  Once one side starts to dominate it's all over but the 'might have beens'.

Of course my point of view for buying either one is for business trips and when taking the subway.  YMMV if you want to watch movies or whatever.

[Yegolev]

The PSP is going to come back in the big way.

If you are making a wager, I would take you up on it since I can't imagine how the PSP could sell six million units at this point.  Sony would have to make a new PSP with two nubs, three clamshells, motion-sensing, integrated Pokemon, and sell it for $99.  I still would not get one.  Unless it also had a laser pointer so I could ruin movies, and was also a touch-screen cell phone with the speaker/mic on the edge.  Then probably.

It is possible that Sony is going to do a Crystal-Chronicles thing with the PSP and integrate it with the PS3, but the problem you have there is the PS3's low install base.

[HaemishM]

Also, HD enabling the Wii isn't as easy as just ducktaping a HDMI port on the back of it and call it a day. It will requiring new hardware and the games aren't designed for being played on HD.

Of course. Which means the same thing I've been saying all along. Nintendo will release an HD-capable console with more refined motion-sensitive controls in 2009-2010. I would add the caveat "provided they survive until then" but with the assraping the DS is giving the handheld market and the fact that the Wii is outselling everything else over 2:1 AND every console sold is profitable, I don't think that's needed.

The Wii is a 2-3 year life cycle machine. That should be obvious.

EDIT: Forgot to add "and it'll cost less than $300."

[Yegolev]

Well, see, "improvements" to the Gameboys are done to sell more units rather than to improve it drastically since it has no competition.  Compare DS and DS Lite; that's mostly a cosmetic update.  Also DS Micro.  Style is what they are doing.  The first Wii revision will be new colors, and if it ends up dominating the market in 2009 then so will the second revision.  Perhaps a Hello Kitty Wii.  Better Wiimote?  Long shot.

[Fabricated]

The PSP is going to come back in the big way.

It's doing plenty good enough right now, it's just that the DS is doing really, REALLY well.

I don't have a good feeling about the PSP re-design that's in the works though since I'm sure Sony will make it a moot point by pricing it too fucking high (and also by making it ridiculously hard to reflash/mod).

[HaemishM]

The first Wii revision will be new colors, and if it ends up dominating the market in 2009 then so will the second revision.  Perhaps a Hello Kitty Wii.  Better Wiimote?  Long shot.

The 2009/2010 revision won't be a revision. It'll be a new console. The Wiimote will be better because it'll be more precise, and have almost 3 years of feedback going into refining the design, as well as having more pixels to play with because it'll be HD.

[schild]

Who gives a fuck. That doesn't make the Wii worthwhile now.

Edit: Wii hasn't been turned on since a week after launch, we are now at 8 months.

[Yegolev]

I'm going to paste a Carnac turban on your avatar, Haem.  I just don't see it, unless you count the Wii as a new console when compared to the Cube.  As for the Wiimote being more precise, I hope so.  The DS Lite did have some improvements over the original, such as adjustable brightness and rechargeable battery, but I would hesitate to call it a new machine.  Even if the second Wii is a vast improvement and is renamed Thay, I'm skeptical on the "whole new machine" thing.

For the record, remember I am also skeptical of the PSP revision.  I am an equal-opportunity pisser.

[schild]

I don't think the PSP will ever catch up with the DS - at least not in Japan, MAYBE IN EUROPE, they like this that's not fun. But! With a proper revision, and games like God of War 2 and Final Fantasy VII spinoffs coming out, I see it making a rush in the market.

[Yegolev]

I'm not arguing that, actually.  If it has PS3 interoperability, I will probably get one.  DS = WoW, competition needs to differentiate.

[HaemishM]

The Wii IS a new console when compared to the Cube. New box, new marketing push, new controllers. New new new. So what if it's guts are just an upgraded Cube processor and video card? This is hardly new to the console industry, as many new consoles have been updated versions of old hardware, with perhaps a new type of sound chip added, or a new graphics process. I remember the SNES being touted as revolutionary because it had a SCALING chip which allowed it to do hardware scaling instead of software scaling. WOO HOOOO!!!!!

Fuck, PC users have been buying upgraded versions of the same processors for years now. You don't have to completely reinvent the wheel each time to make a new console. The X-Box was an underpowered PC in a black box with a slimmed down version of an Nvidia PC graphics card, and there were a shitload of good games on the system. And it was considered new.

Who gives a fuck. That doesn't make the Wii worthwhile now.

Edit: Wii hasn't been turned on since a week after launch, we are now at 8 months.

Thankfully, that's an opinion and not fact.

[Yegolev]

Rather than argue what constitutes "new", what sort of improvements do you think we can expect in the next one?  I might agree we will see an improved Wiimote or even HD, but the thing that keeps me from really believing any of it is the strong suspicion that the Wii will have an install base rivaling the PS2 in 2009.  The PS2 Lite was created to save money on manufacturing, or so I believe, and I expect something similar from Nintendo when put into a similar situation.  Really, why innovate when you don't need to?  Just make it smaller, cheaper and cuter.  If Nintendo once again becomes ubiquitous then innovation stops until the next challenger shows up.  Your SNES example supports my assertion.

[schild]

but the thing that keeps me from really believing any of it is the strong suspicion that the Wii will have an install base rivaling the PS2 in 2009.

Not a chance in hell. The moment the PS3 and 360 get a price drop, Nintendo needs to come up with some shit FAST. At least in America. Once again, Japan doesn't mean shit.

Edit: Nintendo knows this though. The Wii exists solely to undercut the competition and beta test the wiimote - an HD equipped Ninty is guaranteed in a few years.

[HaemishM]

The 2009 Wii will be fully backwards compatible, so having a massive, PS2-sized install base would be just another feature for the new Wii, just like PS1 and PS2 compatibility was for the PS2 and PS3 respectively.

[schild]

It won't have a PS2 sized install base. You're out of your fucking gord if you think the numbers are going to keep climbing after the other consoles drop their prices. A massive part of the current growth trend is the fact that mos people can only afford a Wii right now. This Christmas HDTVs are going to be fucking huge. HUGE. Stores will blow those fuckers out! And then it's only a matter of time.

Also, 3rd party support still does and will continue sucking ballsack.

[Yegolev]

Seems like Sony is the one with the ball here.  The 360 has not dropped price because they don't need to yet, and I figure the only thing that will lower the price of a 360 is a $500 PS3.  Shit, we might need a $400 PS3 to lower the 360's price.  Microsoft, the way I see it, had two choices: lower price on the 360 or make a premium unit that was more comparable (on the surface) with the PS3.  You know, black with integrated WiFi.

I'd agree that N would need to put out a HD Wii pretty quickly after that, but these are the same geniuses that made all those boneheaded decisions we grumble about.  The improved Wiimote does not have to be coupled with a new console, as far as I can tell.  Put out a package with new IR bar and not-dildos Wiimote and there you go.  Hell, pack some minigames in there, too; that shit is like fucking Jello.

Once the PS3 sales pick up, yeah, I'm going with what you both are saying.  How long will that take, though?  Could be this October, could be October 2008.  Until then, I'm going to doomcast based on DS precedent with the understanding that I am taking a decidedly negative view.

I would like to think I live in a world where BC isn't a bulleted feature so much as a given, at least from November 2006 onward.  Hopefully MS and N are both paying attention to how Sony does BC.

[Yegolev]

Here's your improved Wiimote:
http://www.gamasutra.com/view/feature/1494/wheres_the_wiimote_using_kalman_.php

[schild]

I promise to never have real math on the frontpage (well, no math without a snarky comment about... math).

[tazelbain]

Were we ever in danger of math being on the front page?

[schild]

Now you are.

[Yegolev]

I spent some time as a math major.  Proven calculus by starting off with the definition of a real number.  So, perhaps.

[Stephen Zepp]

360/PS3 titles doesn't need to be as expensive to produce as it is if rightly priced middleware would appear. That's what's going to revolutionize the industry and lower the high development costs to manageable levels again, perhaps even lower. Just look at Cryengine & UE3. I don't know any other industry where it's common practise to reinvent the wheel on a project to project basis.

Also, HD enabling the Wii isn't as easy as just ducktaping a HDMI port on the back of it and call it a day. It will requiring new hardware and the games aren't designed for being played on HD.

The system war doesn't really start for real until christmas time this year.

That's actually not totally true (unfortunately).

Anecdotal "Stephen numbers" : production (meaning art, and level design when appropriate) is normally 55-70% of the total cost of AAA titles. As much as I'd love to say that low cost engine middleware would help this signifigantly, that's exactly what GG sells and we haven't honestly seen that much of a change. Our XB360 platform layer for TGE-A has been available for use at a pretty signifigantly lower price (than the engines you mention) for more than a year and a half, and all comparisons with the top end engines aside, it's drawn much less console developer interest than you would expect. Even with the signifigant savings, studios still have to produce the art, and that's where the work and cost really lies.

That being said, we'll see what happens in the next several months.

[Yegolev]

I'd be ecstatic if the Wii was just better at anti-aliasing.  I'm not interested in moving away from the Nintendo color palette.

[HaemishM]

Anti-aliasing would be good. Of course, you can do that in software too, we'll just have to see if any developers give enough of a shit to try. Most probably won't.

[Murgos]

Anti-aliasing would be good. Of course, you can do that in software too, we'll just have to see if any developers give enough of a shit to try. Most probably won't.

Technically, you can do everything an NVIDIA 8800 Super Duper edition can do (and LOTS more) in software.  Doesn't make it a good idea.

[Sairon]

That's actually not totally true (unfortunately).

Anecdotal "Stephen numbers" : production (meaning art, and level design when appropriate) is normally 55-70% of the total cost of AAA titles. As much as I'd love to say that low cost engine middleware would help this signifigantly, that's exactly what GG sells and we haven't honestly seen that much of a change. Our XB360 platform layer for TGE-A has been available for use at a pretty signifigantly lower price (than the engines you mention) for more than a year and a half, and all comparisons with the top end engines aside, it's drawn much less console developer interest than you would expect. Even with the signifigant savings, studios still have to produce the art, and that's where the work and cost really lies.

That being said, we'll see what happens in the next several months.

Good tools can really help speed up content creation though. And rolling up a decent engine takes quite some time. In fact I'm a part of a small studio which is going to buy TGE-A next week, even if we could develop everything which TGE-A offers, it would take to much time. We rather buy TGE-A and modify the pieces we don't like.

UE3 & Cryengine is at a diffrent point, as I'm sure you can agree on. I'm pretty certain what really puts UE3 & Cryengine above TGE-A for AAA studios though is the fact that there's been AAA games released/in development which really shows of the quality of the engines. A company with a shitload of money rather spend more money and play with something which has some kind of track record. Also, the low price of TGE-A while really appreciated by smaller studios scares larger ones off. It's the same in the webdev industry, if you're dealing with larger customers they will think you're not serious if you don't give them a high enough price.

I don't think your 360 layer will take off until there's been something kick ass released with it, showing the GG logo on start up to make people aware. The hobbyists are more likely to go for XNA at this point.

[Yegolev]

It's the same in the webdev industry, if you're dealing with larger customers they will think you're not serious if you don't give them a high enough price.

True in all industries, actually.  Management around here looks at the company and if it is too small or young, they don't get the contract.  Went through this recently for some NAS equipment and a smaller company with a better and cheaper product lost to EMC because, well it's EMC.  Those guys aren't going anywhere.  Other than that, low bidder will generally get it.  Generally.

[Stephen Zepp]

Really good points, and I have a lot of thought on them, but I always feel so guilty derailing threads to talk about /mole stuff.

If they show up on their own I'll certainly jump in :)

[Sairon]

Really good points, and I have a lot of thought on them, but I always feel so guilty derailing threads to talk about /mole stuff.

If they show up on their own I'll certainly jump in :)

Understandable, however the LOTR thread turned into a hamburger thread and the Sigil thread turned into a EVE DB architecture thread, and there has been worse examples. I don't think you would have to feel bad about it 

[Stephen Zepp]

That's actually not totally true (unfortunately).

Anecdotal "Stephen numbers" : production (meaning art, and level design when appropriate) is normally 55-70% of the total cost of AAA titles. As much as I'd love to say that low cost engine middleware would help this signifigantly, that's exactly what GG sells and we haven't honestly seen that much of a change. Our XB360 platform layer for TGE-A has been available for use at a pretty signifigantly lower price (than the engines you mention) for more than a year and a half, and all comparisons with the top end engines aside, it's drawn much less console developer interest than you would expect. Even with the signifigant savings, studios still have to produce the art, and that's where the work and cost really lies.

That being said, we'll see what happens in the next several months.

Good tools can really help speed up content creation though. And rolling up a decent engine takes quite some time.

The first sentence is what Vanguard (and many current MMO's especially) looked for as their primary reasons for engine licensing--and it's a very valid point. Stray Bullet Games has made the same decision (go for the tools as primary differentiator), and I honestly hope it turns out to be the best decision for them.

The second portion is what in my mind much of the market just doesn't get--from indies all the way up to the AAA studios. When generic developer XXX thinks of an "engine", they think "oh, I can throw together Ogre3D, ODE, Python, and compile and I'll have everything engine XXX has except tools"--and that's just not the case. A game engine may have nice tools, or incredible rendering, or amazing AI, or feature YYY, or any combination thereof, but if the underlying systems and system managers aren't proven and up to snuff, taken as a game engine it's just not going to meet your needs.

The other issue is that people many times take the concept of a game engine too far--they really want (subconsciously at least) a game maker, which has already coded the "unique" game mechanics and systems they want--levelling, skills, advancement, whatever. We get this all the time--either

A) Torque doesn't do XXX and therefore it sucks
B) Torque only does (starter.fps), so I can't make RPG game YYY with it. It's an FPS engine.

There is a very, very big difference between engine technology, and game maker technology, and until you know what it is you are actually buying, you are going to be dissapointed no matter what you go with.

In fact I'm a part of a small studio which is going to buy TGE-A next week, even if we could develop everything which TGE-A offers, it would take to much time. We rather buy TGE-A and modify the pieces we don't like.

That right there is exactly what Torque is all about--and with that understanding, you guys should do very well (and be at least comfortable with your decision). It's a rare understanding.

UE3 & Cryengine is at a diffrent point, as I'm sure you can agree on. I'm pretty certain what really puts UE3 & Cryengine above TGE-A for AAA studios though is the fact that there's been AAA games released/in development which really shows of the quality of the engines. A company with a shitload of money rather spend more money and play with something which has some kind of track record. Also, the low price of TGE-A while really appreciated by smaller studios scares larger ones off. It's the same in the webdev industry, if you're dealing with larger customers they will think you're not serious if you don't give them a high enough price.

100% true on both calls--I've actually been told point blank by both very large non-gaming (simulation) companies, as well as game deve studios that if Torque cost $100k instead of $1K (commercial licensing), it would have been chosen. I have however also had many (high name) companies select Torque (and IBM is one of them) exactly because of the low cost--they realize that sometimes a wrench is a wrench (tool metaphor ftw!), regardless of how much it costs.

The other big advantage of the higher priced engines is their integrated tools pipeline. At our price point, we simply cannot afford to pump the R&D into a fully integrated "press one button" pipeline without destroying the availability of the engine itself to self-funded indies. Once understood, the Torque art pipeline is not only extremely flexible and powerful, but also designed specifically for large studios (Dynamix wasn't small-->290 employees near the end) to be able to work on any aspect of the pipeline, or all simultaneously. It's not however exactly trivial to learn or learn well, and that's a downside we are very aware of.

We've made strides with this, not only did we spend > 3 man-years putting Constructor (a brush based editor, similar to QuArK and Hammer, but written in Torque and designed for Torque) up (for free), but we've also published resources for alternate modelling formats (polysoup rendering/collision as a resource for example), but it's still a long road.

I don't think your 360 layer will take off until there's been something kick ass released with it, showing the GG logo on start up to make people aware. The hobbyists are more likely to go for XNA at this point.

This is another one of those "but it doesn't do x, y, and z so we can't use it" situations as well. Simply spending the research time to learn XBox360's rendering in and outs would cost more than the entire Torque 360 license (and that doesn't even factor in actually implementing that research, but instead of taking what's there and building on it, companies tend to shy away, and are willing to spend 100 times (not an exageration) the cost for a more enhanced set of features that ultimately will still need to be redesigned and re-engineered for their needs



Fortunately for us at least, there are some very high name companies that have XB360 titles in late stages of development that we should see in the next several seasons.

[Simond]

Latest rumour: Sega, Namco/Bandai & Capcom are shifting development away from the PS3/PSP and towards the Wii/DS.

[Roac]

Third party. Not first party. I wager, you take a look at the third party numbers (a number you're never ever going to find), it's not the same.

Ok, I've spent some time digging around for third party numbers for all three consoles.  In raw attachment rate, the Wii has the 360 at 2:1, which in turn is over the PS3 by about a bit (~10-20%).  The Wii's domination, as anyone knows, is heavily biased at the moment towards Nintendo stuff: as in, around 60% of all sales are Nintendo.  Microsoft is doing pretty well on the 360 too, taking in about 40% of sales.  Sony... isn't.  They get about 20%.  That leaves the Wii and 360 almost dead even in terms of 3rd party sales, and the PS3 up over either of them by 20%.  That might suggest it's better to toss titles on the PS3.  Not really, because in terms of raw third party sales, the Wii beats the PS3 about 2:1 and the 360 over the Wii 2:1 again, all of which lines up reasonably close to the total hardware sales.

There are two other points to note.  One, the rate of growth for the Wii is far above either the 360 or PS3 (it is outselling both combined).  The 360 is also doing well, but the PS3 is selling dangerously short; the GBA is outselling it at this point, and although very remote, the possibility of being outsold by the discontinued Gamecube actually exists.  This trend will likely continue at least until Christmas, by which time the Wii will will have cut the 360's lead in half. 

The other point to note is that there are no 'must have' third party titles even on the Wii yet.  Most developers seem to have written Nintendo off entirely early on, and once they realized their mistake late into the game pumped out ports and party games.  Several stories are or have been circulating about dev houses shifting large percentages of their resources onto Nintendo development.  Consequently, this means far fewer resources being devoted to either the 360 or PS3 over the long term.  If the PS3 does not capitalize heavily on titles already in the pipe targeted for this Christmas, it could very well seal the fate of the PS3 being nothing more than a place for 360 ports, as it has already demonstrated Sony is incapable of putting lots of high demand 1st party exclusives on it.  The only real pluses remaining in the PS3's column at the moment is Blu-Ray, which seems to be stomping HD-DVD, and brand recognition due to the PS1/PS2. 

All of this is US only.  The Wii is the only thing of consequence in Japan except for the DS, which has become a national sport.  Once you throw Japan into the mix (which is ~2/3 the size of the US market) the numbers are much more skewed in favor of the Wii, either for hardware or third party.  The Wii is selling more hardware than every other single console or handheld combined, excluding the DS.

Because the Wii hardware and software is around 2:1 over the PS3, is not only growing in install base over the PS3 but accelerating that growth, and because it has a power vacuum of solid third party titles, the Wii is in an incredible position to make money for third party devs.  Because the 360 has made the PS3 its bitch in the high end market, the PS3 is going to attract almost nothing in the way of exclusives.  This leaves games being made to the lowest common denominator, which is the 360 (or Wii - the tradeoff here is graphics for install base obviously, and most people seem to prefer to make a Wii version over using Wii as the baseline, at least so far).  This means many AAA titles will not be making the most of Blu-Ray, or the HD.  The PS3 version will use them, but only after being designed to fit within the constraints of the 360.  Expect more press releases by Sony about how devs are only using "20% of the available hardware" (or whatever metric they wish to throw out), because it is not worthwhile for devs to put in the large amounts of effort required to work with Sony's hardware.  They'll work with Microsoft's hardware, then port.  This Christmas is very likely the last chance Sony has of pulling itself out of last place in the US.

Oh, and for one more kick in the pants:  in the US, the GC has a larger market share of 6th gen titles than the PS3 has of the 7th gen. 

[Miasma]

Nintendo briefly outstrips Sony in market value.  Wow.