LOTRO NDA has been lifted.

[Arthur_Parker]

I find it difficult to believe, but it appears there's been another major Guardian nerf, that's about the fourth since september.  Just in case anyone read my post above, where I said I had fun playing this for three months.  Keep in mind when making a decision to buy or not, that Turbine now thinks I was playing an overpowered class. 

If everyone is soloing to 20, what does overpowered actually mean?

I'm not exactly sure what you are asking.

I think Turbine thought Guardians were too powerful (a dev commented that Guardians were fine as they were the 3rd most played class, shortly after the last major nerfage) and that their tanking ability was too powerful.  I'd agree tanking was out of whack, holding aggro was far too easy. 

But the deeper issue was that they appeared to be balancing classes based (in large part) on how many people of a class were above a certain level, due to the offhand dev comment. 

Now clearly I have no inside knowledge of what's going on, but lets say for the following example we ignore the obvious balance issues of class A can kill 10 mobs in 10 minutes and class B can kill 30 mobs in 10 minutes, those should be easy enough to identify, right?  Say we have five classes and class "Wibble" has more higher level players than the other four, you might easily think that Wibble's are overpowered but it might just be that being a Wibble is fun, so the players are spending longer playing and therefore leveling up more.  In that case nerfing Wibble is bad because the game becomes less fun.

Haemish, LOTRO just needs to beat EQ's top figure to get gamers talking about it (that's 450k right?), the tv people are going to go apeshit with free publicity Hobbits are cute, it's an ip designed for the feed good spot at the end of the news.  I don't know about the US, but the tv over here can't shut up about 2nd life at the minute.  Sure they might fuck it up, but yeah I say 1 million worldwide is easy if they aren't entirely brain dead.

[shiznitz]

I meant what you ended up writing, but I failed at sarcasm. Lots of people were playing the class and having fun so something must be wrong.

[CmdrSlack]

Where is it going to get 350k from? Fans of the LotRO movies? That's 2 years too late. WoW? Just released an expansion with more than 3 months worth of content for most, and most of what I'm hearing says BC does not suck. VG? Not even 100k in that boat. DAoC? If you're still playing it, you're not likely to leave for a mostly PVE game. Tolkien fans? You run into the same problem SWG did, not all Tolkien fans are computer game fans, and less of those are MMOG fans. Turbine fans or cast offs from other Turbine games? Not going to be a lot of them.

I'd say 100k is a reasonable number. If an MMOG can't be profitable with 100k paying subs, THEY DID IT WRONG.

If anything, WoW demonstrated that there are plenty of people out there who may jump into the genre for the first time if they find the right carrort to lure them in.  I don't think looking solely at existing MMO players as the source of subs is necessarily apt.

[HaemishM]

WoW's success is too unique to compare. First off, WoW's entire IP was built on video games, so in essence, fans of the IP were already video gamers. There have been what 3-5 actual Tolkien IP games before, none of which were huge hits? People who don't normally play video games don't also want to pay $10-$15/month to play a Tolkien-based video game, whereas Warcraft fans ALL play computer games.

Once WoW's intial success was so large, it was inevitable that it would gain that many more subscribers (unless it was a clusterfuck) because of the "my friends are playing" factor.

This game is not so startingly good that it will overcome a lot of the drawbacks that are built into the subscription-based game. It's a decent game, but EQ1 levels of success? That's crazy talk, you ask me.

[Afropuff]

I meant what you ended up writing, but I failed at sarcasm. Lots of people were playing the class and having fun so something must be wrong.

That's because it wasn't in green.

[Afropuff]

WoW's success is too unique to compare. First off, WoW's entire IP was built on video games, so in essence, fans of the IP were already video gamers. There have been what 3-5 actual Tolkien IP games before, none of which were huge hits? People who don't normally play video games don't also want to pay $10-$15/month to play a Tolkien-based video game, whereas Warcraft fans ALL play computer games.

Once WoW's intial success was so large, it was inevitable that it would gain that many more subscribers (unless it was a clusterfuck) because of the "my friends are playing" factor.

This game is not so startingly good that it will overcome a lot of the drawbacks that are built into the subscription-based game. It's a decent game, but EQ1 levels of success? That's crazy talk, you ask me.

MMO developers continue to look for IP that's transcendent - that random Joe will play despite not being a gamer.  Really, I'm wondering if there will come a point when studios will give up on trying to hit the home run that way.

[Falconeer]

As far as predictions go, we have those carved in stone (What about sticking that thread?).

I'll save you the effort of clicking a link and I'll copy here the LoTRO ones, for December 2007 and December 2008.

December 2007

Lord of the Rings Online

Shapechanger: 800k
Simond: 500k
Darniaq: 400k
Endie: 300k
Modern Angel: 300k
Lantyssa: 300k
Xuri: 300k
Trouble: 300k
Evangolis: 220k
HRose: 200k
Merusk: 200k
Falconeer: 200k
Stray: 200k
Angry.bob: 200k
Eldaec: 150k
Strazos: 132k
Waylander: 125k
Sairon: 100k
HaemishM: 100k
Geldonyetich: 100k
Unsub: 100k
Soln: 100k
Damijin: 80k
Datagod: 54k
Comstar: 50k
Andar: 20k
WindUpAtheist: -
Riggswolfe: -


December 2008

Lord of the Rings Online

Shapechanger: 550k
Angry.bob: 500k
Modern Angel: 400k
Simond: 350k
Trouble: 300k
Evangolis: 250k
Darniaq: 200k
Lantyssa: 200k
Xuri: 200k
Falconeer: 150k
Cheddar: 140k
Strazos: 103k
HRose: 100k
Unsub: 100k
Soln: 100k
WindUpAtheist: 90k
Sairon: 80k
Waylander: 75k
Eldaec: 50k
Damijin: 50k
HaemishM: 50k
Stray: 40k
Datagod: 35k
Comstar: 30k
Arthur Parker: -
Riggswolfe: -

[CmdrSlack]

WoW's success is too unique to compare. First off, WoW's entire IP was built on video games, so in essence, fans of the IP were already video gamers. There have been what 3-5 actual Tolkien IP games before, none of which were huge hits? People who don't normally play video games don't also want to pay $10-$15/month to play a Tolkien-based video game, whereas Warcraft fans ALL play computer games.

Once WoW's intial success was so large, it was inevitable that it would gain that many more subscribers (unless it was a clusterfuck) because of the "my friends are playing" factor.

This game is not so startingly good that it will overcome a lot of the drawbacks that are built into the subscription-based game. It's a decent game, but EQ1 levels of success? That's crazy talk, you ask me.

I have learned that making assumptions about the possible success of a game based on a perceived willingness of potential users to pay the fee is asking to be wrong.  I'd agree that most Warcraft fans were already gamers, but I also know plenty of those types of gamers who said they'd never play an MMO.  Eventually, they did.  Look at DDO.  People thought that it would capture a lot of the PnP players, but it didn't.  I really think that LoTRO can do quite well -- EQ1 numbers are very attainable, and it has nothing to do with the propensity of Lord of the Rings fans to start gaming.  I think that as the number of pedestrian titles increases, you'll see more new players.  WoW obviously did that, and I don't see how a WoW-too type game can't do the same. 

Keep in mind that the potential audience ISN'T jaded, experienced MMO gamers.  Many of the criticisms of the game that are being bandied about are based on significant experience with MMO titles. Some of them are being made by people so sufficiently jaded by MMOs that they have a 30-minute rule.  ;)  Maybe I'll be wrong, but I think your prediction of 100k at best is rather low.  I also think Arthur_Parker's prediction of one million is rather high.  450k?  Sure.  Will it be all at once?  No.  But hey, even EQ1 took time to build up to its peak.  That's why it was a peak.

[shiznitz]

Why would DDO attract PvP players, even theoretically? I thought it was pure instanced PvE.

[Venkman]

WoW's success is based on it having been based on a game-IP, offered by a company reknowned for making fun polished games that capitalize on established success ("derivation", the nice way), with a bottomless pit of cash, and with an instant worldwide reach (they chose their staggered launch).

LoTRO is standard diku with a father-of-all-IP from a company who's only success is for a game 95% of the genre hasn't played.

LoTRO will capture many in the genre already. But them pulling in new players is incremental at best. Can't remember where I said this so I'll just offer it up again: people interested in persistent worlds based on Tolkien lore are, by and large, already here playing the same game system. Every fantasy-based MMO since UO has roots in LoTR. There'll be new ones because of the cache the name has, but I really don't think there are that many left who a) love LoTR; and, b) have been specifically waiting for an MMO set in that world.

Thanks for pulling up the predictions Falc!

[Jayce]

Why would DDO attract PvP players, even theoretically? I thought it was pure instanced PvE.

PnP (Pen & Paper), not PvP.

[Arthur_Parker]

Falconeer, I didn't like to predict figures for LOTRO as I was in the Beta under NDA, and me saying 1 million after hating DDO would have looked a bit weird.
So I'll give mine now if you don't object.

LOTRO December 2007
1 million

LOTRO December 2008
1.5 million

[CmdrSlack]

Falconeer, I didn't like to predict figures for LOTRO as I was in the Beta under NDA, and me saying 1 million after hating DDO would have looked a bit weird.
So I'll give mine now if you don't object.

LOTRO December 2007
1 million

LOTRO December 2008
1.5 million

On one hand, I really hope that you're right.  On the other, I have to ask, is this based entirely on the WoW-too gameplay and license?  Is it the license alone?  Based on your other posts, you're not buying the game (at launch at least), so what about it will grab others that hasn't grabbed you?

I'm putting my money on 450k subs, so where are the other 1.15 million subs coming from?

[Hound]

put me down for 400K please. I really don't think everyone is married to WoW and quite a few of the non raiders will gamble 50 bucks just to see if they like it. Some will stay and some will not, some of the ones that do stay will jump ship when AoC and or WAR release if they are decent.

[squirrel]

Well I hope it's successful. I enjoyed my time in beta - although personally the combat (I found it slow) and the lack of class diversity outweighed the interesting storyline efforts and lore. But it's a good solid game and should appeal to a pretty broad player base I would think.

[CmdrSlack]

put me down for 400K please. I really don't think everyone is married to WoW and quite a few of the non raiders will gamble 50 bucks just to see if they like it. Some will stay and some will not, some of the ones that do stay will jump ship when AoC and or WAR release if they are decent.

Ok, this is where I think numbers get fuzzy.  Are we talking continuing subs or initial box sales?  Are we talking initial box sales that convert to accounts or those plus later buyers? I assume that WoW reports its numbers based on continuing subs and however they figure the math with Asian PC cafes.  Maybe they're doing Second Life fuzzy math and nobody has caught them.  I highly doubt that because, well, I don't have a tinfoil hat. 

So what are we claiming when we put forth our numbers?  Are we claiming "time to grow" numbers like WoW, which started out strong and then exploded as it launched in various regions?  What's the real metric we're predicting?

[Nija]

I'll say about 75k in Dec '07 - a lot of people will start and quit after the free month. A couple bad patches, (Turbine) a couple of delayed fixes and we're looking at 125k in Dec '08.

They will probably sell a lot of boxes but I don't see them holding on to players for very long. Maybe an average account lifespan of 3 months, unless they have some clever pricing.

[Venkman]

My number is based on the peak achieved for 2007 and for 2008.

[Margalis]

About IP as a draw, I recently saw a list of top 100 selling games last year.

There was a lot of IP based stuff, but much of it was for kids. Cars was the #1 selling IP-based game IIRC, and Bratz was up there too.

MMORPGs are not aimed at the Bratz crowd. People willing to endure the complexities of a MMORPG along with the monthly fee are at least slightly more sophisticated.

I would also point out that something like Cars appears kid-friendly, something parents have heard of and trust to some degree. That isn't a concern in the MMORPG world.

I would say the more sophisticated the game is, the more sophisticated the audience it attracts, the less the IP matters. Older, wiser gamers know that IP is irrelevant to the final product.

In the case of Blizzard I don't think the IP is what makes WOW sell in the same sense it helps Bratz sell. Blizzard has a reputation for quality, and the previous Warcraft games have been good. It isn't the lore, the characters, the setting - it is the quality.

I'll play a Zelda or Metroid game because Zelda and Metroid are usually good - not because I love Link and Samus. (Although I do love Samus) I know I'll be entertained.

LOTR IP doesn't carry that sort of promise. Neither does D&D. Or Star Wars for that matter. Those IPs still provide name recognition and will attract die-hard fans, but they don't carry nearly the same weight as IP tied to quality products.

[CmdrSlack]

I would also point out that something like Cars appears kid-friendly, something parents have heard of and trust to some degree. That isn't a concern in the MMORPG world.

The makers of ToonTown called, they'd like to take exception with that.  Moreover, as social networking sites and social games increase in popularity, I think you'll see more dev houses interested in MMO titles geared towards kids.  Keep in mind that kids are the people that range from infant to eighteen.  Thirteen if you want to take various kid-protector legislation into account.  Sure, there are a ton of games for kids on the top 100 list.  That should be an indicator that we'll see more of them in the future, even in the MMO space, not hte opposite. 

Assuming that MMOs are the last bastion of serious gamers or whatever is essentially waiting to go the way of the dodo, IMO.

ETA --

I would say the more sophisticated the game is, the more sophisticated the audience it attracts, the less the IP matters. Older, wiser gamers know that IP is irrelevant to the final product.

It turns out that games aren't entiirely made for that crowd.  It's a good thing too or else the jaded older gamer crowd would dictate what gets made.  Based on the input here, that'd end up being "not much."

[stray]

WoW killers:

Pokemon

Desperate Housewives Online

[Morat20]

WoW killers:

Pokemon

If a Pokemon MMORPG came out,  my kid would drive me up the wall until he got it. Why one doesn't exist is beyond me. PvE is wandering around, catching monsters and fighting Team Rocket and Team Whatevers, and earning badges.

PvP? Pokemon duels, of course.

[stray]

Why one doesn't exist is beyond me.

Because Nintendo hasn't gotten their head out of their asses as far as online strategies go. Even for small multiplayer games.

Just a matter of time though..

[Azazel]

Falconeer, I didn't like to predict figures for LOTRO as I was in the Beta under NDA, and me saying 1 million after hating DDO would have looked a bit weird.
So I'll give mine now if you don't object.

LOTRO December 2007
1 million

LOTRO December 2008
1.5 million

On one hand, I really hope that you're right.  On the other, I have to ask, is this based entirely on the WoW-too gameplay and license?  Is it the license alone?  Based on your other posts, you're not buying the game (at launch at least), so what about it will grab others that hasn't grabbed you?

I'm putting my money on 450k subs, so where are the other 1.15 million subs coming from?

I think people predicting 1m or therabouts are all basing it off the "well WoW has 8m, so this can have 1m, surely!" theorum, which is inherently flawed since WoW's Western playerbase is much smaller than that, and the US base is even smaller again (and also includes ALL of the Aust/NZ players, and I believe I read something about 170k Aussie players a year or so ago.)

People are also not really taking note that there are a lot of MMOGs being released with increasing frequency, and most of us fuckers tend to play one ot two of these games at most. The marketspace is getting more and more crowded.

My own predictions are more like 100-150k by december, and a steady peak of around 300-500k once it hits critical mass. I see it outperforming EQ/2, but not by a whole lot.

[Margalis]

The makers of ToonTown called, they'd like to take exception with that.  Moreover, as social networking sites and social games increase in popularity, I think you'll see more dev houses interested in MMO titles geared towards kids. 

You are correct. My unstated assumption was that the game was aimed at a more mature crowd, which I think is the case in LOTRO.

The more casual the player and the younger the player, the more the IP can draw even if it doesn't have any quality games associated with it. The older and more hardcore the player, the more IP only matters when tied to previous quality releases.

That said, for most MMOs IP may help box sales but probably won't retain subs.

I'm also ignoring things like the NFL license as IP, as that is a fairly separate beast. A lot of gamers simply wouldn't touch an unlicensed sports game.

Edit: "If only x% of WOW players play our game we'll be rich" is Vanguard logic - look how that is working out.

Pets.com founder: "If only 1% of pet owners use our site we'll be rich!!!"

At EQ2 levels or up to 60% higher or so sounds right to me.

[stray]

Pets.com founder: "If only 1% of pet owners use our site we'll be rich!!!"

Heh. Almost reminds me of this bit: Link


"What's this section here...? That's our target market."

[Trippy]

Falconeer, I didn't like to predict figures for LOTRO as I was in the Beta under NDA, and me saying 1 million after hating DDO would have looked a bit weird.
So I'll give mine now if you don't object.

LOTRO December 2007
1 million

LOTRO December 2008
1.5 million

There's no way that LotRO is going to hit a million unless they are planning on a massive international rollout of the game localized into different languages akin to what Blizzard did with WoW. If they are, then they have a chance. And that holds true for any NA or Euro-developed MMORPG -- if those games want to break 1 million they have to plan on being an international grame from the start (it can't be an afterthought like EQ and EQII). Asia is it's own separate world and MMORPGs over there can break a million easy with just Asian customers.

[Trippy]

Are there doubts on the fact that Warhammer will be better than WoW?
World of Warcraft is not a bad game, it's a very good one. It's just the most overhyped and overrated PoS of all times.

How can a "very good" game be a "PoS" at the same time?

[Margalis]

Like I said before, whatever Falconeer says to play, play the opposite.

Are there doubts on the fact that Warhammer will be better than WoW?

Is that a serious question? Any new MMORPG is going to be surrounded by those doubts, for obvious reason.

[Cheddar]

I stand by my prediction.

[Arthur_Parker]

Falconeer, I didn't like to predict figures for LOTRO as I was in the Beta under NDA, and me saying 1 million after hating DDO would have looked a bit weird.
So I'll give mine now if you don't object.

LOTRO December 2007
1 million

LOTRO December 2008
1.5 million

On one hand, I really hope that you're right.  On the other, I have to ask, is this based entirely on the WoW-too gameplay and license?  Is it the license alone?  Based on your other posts, you're not buying the game (at launch at least), so what about it will grab others that hasn't grabbed you?

I'm putting my money on 450k subs, so where are the other 1.15 million subs coming from?

I think people predicting 1m or therabouts are all basing it off the "well WoW has 8m, so this can have 1m, surely!" theorum, which is inherently flawed since WoW's Western playerbase is much smaller than that, and the US base is even smaller again (and also includes ALL of the Aust/NZ players, and I believe I read something about 170k Aussie players a year or so ago.)

People are also not really taking note that there are a lot of MMOGs being released with increasing frequency, and most of us fuckers tend to play one ot two of these games at most. The marketspace is getting more and more crowded.

My own predictions are more like 100-150k by december, and a steady peak of around 300-500k once it hits critical mass. I see it outperforming EQ/2, but not by a whole lot.

It's going to have an Asian release probably with Shanda, Moria is going to be the first expansion, it's in their interested to get the expansion out soon to get more money from the people who signed up for a lifetime pass.  The lifetime pass is genius they get you as a customer for life, they can count you whenever they need to say how well they are doing, you pay your money up front and never have to worry about your characters disappearing, there's no hassel to resubscribe.

[Margalis]

Expansion talks already?

Game isn't even out yet!

[Hound]

I wonder how well it will do in Asia. BTW in one of my earlier posts when I said 'like it or not it will succeed' it was meant in the context of "whether you like the game or not it will succeed" not in the the context of anyone wanting it to fail. My 400 K prediciton is six months after release to clarify.

[Falconeer]

Are there doubts on the fact that Warhammer will be better than WoW?
World of Warcraft is not a bad game, it's a very good one. It's just the most overhyped and overrated PoS of all times.

How can a "very good" game be a "PoS" at the same time?

It has lots of qualities and lots of flaws to me, and it's obviously one of the most loved/hated iteration of a very questionable gaming genre.
To me every new iteration of EverQuest is technically a PoS: autoattack, specials, loot. Hello 1998 (and before). You know featureless unworldly diku = PoS (Shadowbane wasn't PoS on Paper, UO isn't, SWG wasn't, even Lineage 2 could be NOT a PoS [but it is after all]. Some because they aren't dikus, some because they added stuff on that). But they can be a nice and fun or entertaining and addictive PoSs.
That's the case of WoW, that is actually the most overrated to me (and yes.. LoTRO is a PoS and Vanguard is too. It could be different with all the promised features, but as of now it's definitely a PoS, although an underrated one).

And Margalis, the only games I would suggest you or anyone else to play are Disgaea, M.U.L.E., Mars Saga, One on One (the one with Dr. J and Larry Bird), Soul Calibur, AD&D Treasure of Tarmin, Half Life, Wasteland, Ultima Online, Elite, Phantasy Star 2, Utopia, Zak McKracken, Victorious Boxer, Monaco Gp, Genesis/Megadrive EA NHL Hockey up to 1993, Laser Squad and Jagged Alliance 2 and a few others probably XX Century anyway. Oh and any SI's Championship Manager if you can stand text football. The rest is just me trying to survive in a world of various degrees of uninspired videogames. Definitely NOT suggestions.

[Trippy]

Falconeer, I didn't like to predict figures for LOTRO as I was in the Beta under NDA, and me saying 1 million after hating DDO would have looked a bit weird.
So I'll give mine now if you don't object.

LOTRO December 2007
1 million

LOTRO December 2008
1.5 million

On one hand, I really hope that you're right.  On the other, I have to ask, is this based entirely on the WoW-too gameplay and license?  Is it the license alone?  Based on your other posts, you're not buying the game (at launch at least), so what about it will grab others that hasn't grabbed you?

I'm putting my money on 450k subs, so where are the other 1.15 million subs coming from?

I think people predicting 1m or therabouts are all basing it off the "well WoW has 8m, so this can have 1m, surely!" theorum, which is inherently flawed since WoW's Western playerbase is much smaller than that, and the US base is even smaller again (and also includes ALL of the Aust/NZ players, and I believe I read something about 170k Aussie players a year or so ago.)

People are also not really taking note that there are a lot of MMOGs being released with increasing frequency, and most of us fuckers tend to play one ot two of these games at most. The marketspace is getting more and more crowded.

My own predictions are more like 100-150k by december, and a steady peak of around 300-500k once it hits critical mass. I see it outperforming EQ/2, but not by a whole lot.

It's going to have an Asian release probably with Shanda, Moria is going to be the first expansion, it's in their interested to get the expansion out soon to get more money from the people who signed up for a lifetime pass.  The lifetime pass is genius they get you as a customer for life, they can count you whenever they need to say how well they are doing, you pay your money up front and never have to worry about your characters disappearing, there's no hassel to resubscribe.

Actually it looks like CDC, a second-tier operator in China, got the rights to operate LotRO in China. It remains to be seen if they can handle localizing and operating a Western game in China. Also, there's no point in rushing out an expansion to please the lifetime members -- they already have all the subscription money they are ever going to get from those people.