The Nerf Prediction Game

[jpark]

Who's next?

Front runners appear to be:

PVP:  Locks and Hunters
PVE:  Pallies and druids

My bet:  Paladins.

The whine will be fucking deafening, when the largest lobby group in this game - alliance - confronts paladins in pvp for the first time.  This will take a few months though before the horde wave of paladins hit.

* Rubs his Hands *

[Morfiend]

I think Hunters. Seems to me the majority of nerfs happen because if PVP. In PVP hunters are gods right now. Also, Locks seem a very popular choice for forum whining.

[Fabricated]

Warlocks first, followed by hunters. Paladins when a significant number of them hit 60+ on horde.

Throw warrior in there somewhere since we always get a good nerf here and there.

[Morat20]

The Hunter nerf starts Tuesday. Hunter's are only PvP gods for two reasons -- ultra-fast pets (nerfed last patch) and high crits on multishot. PvP gear shifts to high-stamina + resiliance starting with TBC.

Gear alone will nerf hunters, as none of the TBC gear really improves Hunters past where they are now in terms of DPS.

[Flood]

1.) Locks

2.) Hunters

3.) Paladins, but with the same caveat that fab mentioned.  They are under the radar right now, but when they get a higher profile, *snipe*

[Ratadm]

Warlocks just took a nerf to their dots changing the coefficients and druids had the way their threat nerfed didn't they?  Dunno how the game is atm but that's what I heard dunno if both are still overpowered.

[Ironwood]

Rogues.


I win.


Rogues always get nerfed.  When Bhodi downloaded the latest patch and it wouldn't tell you what it did, I told him that it 'Nerfed Rogues somehow'.  It's always a safe bet.

[Tale]

Druids. I am doing utterly insane damage in cat and bear and have over 10k armor points in bear when buffed. In tier 1 gear.

[Azazel]

I have great hatred for Locks and their resist-you-spells now I'll fear+dot=you're dead ezmode pvp bullshit, but honestly in a week it'll be levelling time so I won't give a fuck about them for several months as they won't be in my face constantly.

So I just have to bite my tongue and continue to suck it down for a 2 more days till I can get my mage's pants, and hopefully save enough BG tokens to get my mage and rogue the Dranei pvp mount come next week, and it'll be done.

Shame I can't get any more gear for my rogue. Shoulders and Boots would have been nice, but I guess I'll go with the much-vaunted MC-beating world-drop greens..

[Simond]

I am seriously looking forward to the...entertainment when BE pallies & draenei shaman start hitting the BGs in any sorts of numbers.

A: ZOMG shaman suck! Paladins are overpowered!
H: No shit, Sherlock. 

[lamaros]

It wont be locks. Felguard has been nerfed and unnerfed a bit in beta, I think what they have no they're happy with. DoTs were nerfed for PvE and PvP reasons, though I expect mostly PvE.

[Azazel]

I am seriously looking forward to the...entertainment when BE pallies & draenei shaman start hitting the BGs in any sorts of numbers.

A: ZOMG shaman suck! Paladins are overpowered!
H: No shit, Sherlock. 

Actually, I'm looking forward to that as well. Playing alliance, I don't often really notice pallies, but the thousands of fucking totems all over the floor (that ignore my AE) shit me no end. I'm looking forward to Horde getting fucked off by a forest of totems on the ground...

[Typhon]

no! your grass is greener!

[Arrrgh]

Dual wielding shaman will get the bat soon.

[jpark]

I am seriously looking forward to the...entertainment when BE pallies & draenei shaman start hitting the BGs in any sorts of numbers.

A: ZOMG shaman suck! Paladins are overpowered!
H: No shit, Sherlock. 

I don't quite agree.  Shammies are good 1 vs. 1 - but for whatever reason - in my impression the complaints about them died off a long time ago.  I never see shamans as key in pvp - for whatever reason - they just don't seem to matter that much anymore.  I noticed this too when I played an alliance 60 warrior - shamans were not a concern.

In terms of impact on the game, Paladins >> shamans.  In PVE and PVP.  I do not expect to see any real rants from horde about shamans.  However, I expect to see much CRYING from alliance about horde paladins.

MUHAHAHA

[bhodi]

Warlocks beat our rogues on patchwerk now.

[Azazel]

no! your grass is greener!

Not a "grass is greener comment". More a shamans and their totems shit me post. Especially when I'm nuking them and my target auto-switches to their stupid little sticks that I can't AE. Pallies I'll just nuke into oblivion when they're low or otherwise follow Ironwood's advice.

[Zetor]

Paladin damage was already nerfed with the last patch.
I never had any problems with paladins in pvp, ever [in arenas, the only place I can fight them that's not a meaningless duel], whether I'm on my warlock or warrior (not 1v1 as my warrior of course, but warrior+druid vs paladin+paladin for example). And no, I'm not fighting valordins with a TUF, in fact, they almost always outgeared me and my partner. They have plenty of weaknesses.

Anyway, in the same "zomg your side is more ezmode" tone that this thread has taken off in... what I'm looking forward to are horde priest and warlock complaints when they end up fighting all-undead groups in arenas. WOTF for all! :)
The same goes for shamans vs. priests in group pvp, and the realization how badly a buff-oriented class fares vs a buff-remover melee unit.

(and yeah, locks are not going to get nerfed. I can see them maybe readjusting DOT coefficients once a lot of people hit level 70, that's about it.)


-- Z.

[Merusk]

The Hunter nerf starts Tuesday. Hunter's are only PvP gods for two reasons -- ultra-fast pets (nerfed last patch) and high crits on multishot. PvP gear shifts to high-stamina + resiliance starting with TBC.

Gear alone will nerf hunters, as none of the TBC gear really improves Hunters past where they are now in terms of DPS.

Yep.. if anything Hunter crit % are going down at the baseline, then you add-in the Resiliance factor and it's going to plummet.  However, the question is will that be realized before or after Blizz caves to the whining.

  Considering there's going to be tons of bugs, server crashes and other 'fun' stuff like forced server splits for them to deal with immedeatly following Tuesday, I'm in favor of the "before".

Locks already got nerfed, and with all the addt'l +stam on the gear, I don't think they're going to get hit again soon.  Once people get a few BC items they're going to realize how very hurt Locks have gotten. 

Pallies, same deal.  All that additional Stamina and HPs are just going to turn them into the nuisance they were before, not the gods they are now.

Rogues.


I win.


Rogues always get nerfed.  When Bhodi downloaded the latest patch and it wouldn't tell you what it did, I told him that it 'Nerfed Rogues somehow'.  It's always a safe bet.

Yes, you do.  THe next "nerf" patch will happen in a month or so.  When that happens many, many rogues will have "Cloak of I-Win" and be using it in PvP like there's no tomorrow.  1min cooldown and no energy cost to strip all afflictions make you 90% resistant to all spells?  The crying from Hunters, Mages, and Locks will get them pounded into the ground.

I am seriously looking forward to the...entertainment when BE pallies & draenei shaman start hitting the BGs in any sorts of numbers.

A: ZOMG shaman suck! Paladins are overpowered!
H: No shit, Sherlock. 

I don't quite agree.  Shammies are good 1 vs. 1 - but for whatever reason - in my impression the complaints about them died off a long time ago.  I never see shamans as key in pvp - for whatever reason - they just don't seem to matter that much anymore.  I noticed this too when I played an alliance 60 warrior - shamans were not a concern.

In terms of impact on the game, Paladins >> shamans.  In PVE and PVP.  I do not expect to see any real rants from horde about shamans.  However, I expect to see much CRYING from alliance about horde paladins.

MUHAHAHA

Good shaman, like good pallies are hard to find.  The excellent shaman I've been up against are such a nuisance that it's infuriating.   3 Shaman on flag defense in WSG, all cross-healing and dropping Earthbind totems as they get nuked?  Yeah, nobodys going anywhere until your team gets there to wipe up the offensive group. 

They're not the offensive gods that some folks think they are, but they play defense in small groups very very well.   I'm sure the same can be said of Pallies, but their weakness is that bubble is the gimmick so many rely on.  It's not as powerful as you think, it's just damn frustrating.

[jpark]

[They're not the offensive gods that some folks think they are, but they play defense in small groups very very well.   I'm sure the same can be said of Pallies, but their weakness is that bubble is the gimmick so many rely on.  It's not as powerful as you think, it's just damn frustrating.

But that is the delicious beauty of this topic.  What * I  think * about paladins is about to be tested:  How strong is the alliance whine about paladins going to be compared to any complaints by Horde regarding Dreani shaman? 

This is like a controlled experiment - in sociology no doubt (That has to be a first hehe).

Three classes of anything can be highly effective though - keep that in mind.  Can you imagine 3 frost mages on defense? :)

[Zetor]

I won't whine about pallies. I have a 60 that I shelved [and tried out briefly again.. still shelved] and I know their weak points (and there are quite a few of them). The only thing that would've made them overpowering (the ability to burst someone down in one stun) was removed this patch, so I don't think there'll be anything to complain about.

... and do you honestly think whine posts on the b.net forums are any sort of 'sociological representation' of the alliance players, much less the gaming population? :P


-- Z.

[jpark]

... and do you honestly think whine posts on the b.net forums are any sort of 'sociological representation' of the alliance players, much less the gaming population? :P


-- Z.

True - the forums are the entertainment  :-D  But really, I think the forums are a decent surrogate for Blizzard's actions (the squeeky wheel...) - but there is no need for me to defend this point:

The "outcome" is whether paladins get nerfed, while shamans remain largely untouched.  The true test here is Blizzard's action.

The only thing that would've made them overpowering (the ability to burst someone down in one stun) was removed this patch, so I don't think there'll be anything to complain about.

Interesting.  The patch this past week - mind if I ask what exactly the change was?  They can no longer stun lock?  I did not quite follow the complaints guys were having about pally stuns lately.

[Zetor]

Crusader Strike is now on a 10sec cooldown [from 6], activates the GCD, and Vengeance [the main paladin damage increaser talent, triggered after a crit] was nerfed to 10% from 15%. This also means that a ret paladin won't be able to kill an equally-geared character with an autoattack+stun+judge+strike+autoattack+repentance+seal+wait+judge+strike combo anymore.

But then, I haven't fought any pallies since then, this is just what I've heard from guildies and friends. :p


-- Z.

[Phred]

... and do you honestly think whine posts on the b.net forums are any sort of 'sociological representation' of the alliance players, much less the gaming population? :P


-- Z.

True - the forums are the entertainment  :-D  But really, I think the forums are a decent surrogate for Blizzard's actions (the squeeky wheel...) - but there is no need for me to defend this point:

The "outcome" is whether paladins get nerfed, while shamans remain largely untouched.  The true test here is Blizzard's action.

The only thing that would've made them overpowering (the ability to burst someone down in one stun) was removed this patch, so I don't think there'll be anything to complain about.

Interesting.  The patch this past week - mind if I ask what exactly the change was?  They can no longer stun lock?  I did not quite follow the complaints guys were having about pally stuns lately.

Interestingly, dispite all the whining about how overpowered hunters are at the moment the only change they've made is to lower the mana cost on multi shot back to it's pre-nerf level. I think the biggest problem with hunters is that all the dps they lost from the nerf to aimed show got put into an instant shot, making them even more effective in pvp than previously.

[Morat20]

Interestingly, dispite all the whining about how overpowered hunters are at the moment the only change they've made is to lower the mana cost on multi shot back to it's pre-nerf level. I think the biggest problem with hunters is that all the dps they lost from the nerf to aimed show got put into an instant shot, making them even more effective in pvp than previously.

Actually, from being on the receiving and giving ends -- it's that properly geared MM Hunters can get a good solid 25% crit rate across the board, and push it into the 40s for multishot. So an auto-shot, arcane shot, multi-shot, auto-shot crit combo happens a lot. And it's a quick string of crits. So you're talking 5k of damage in a few seconds, and arcane shot is utterly untouched by armor. A lot of front-loaded damage, especially against a clothy -- but noticeable even to the plate wearers because Arcane shot isn't mitigated.

However, as I've said -- that's the best it's ever going to be. It's only going downhill from there. The gear in TBC doesn't pump up Hunter crit rates any higher than they are now, but everyone else is getting more stamina and crit resistance -- so our effective PvP damage is simply going to drop. The introduction of steady-shot (another fast shot in the rotation) will pump us back up some at 66, but at best we're taking a huge effective damage nerf over the next 10 levels. How much of one depends entirely on the Burning Crusade gear. We might end up just right, or even underpowered. All depends on how much resiliance and stamina the PvP-gear has at 70.

[Phred]

However, as I've said -- that's the best it's ever going to be. It's only going downhill from there. The gear in TBC doesn't pump up Hunter crit rates any higher than they are now, but everyone else is getting more stamina and crit resistance -- so our effective PvP damage is simply going to drop. The introduction of steady-shot (another fast shot in the rotation) will pump us back up some at 66, but at best we're taking a huge effective damage nerf over the next 10 levels. How much of one depends entirely on the Burning Crusade gear. We might end up just right, or even underpowered. All depends on how much resiliance and stamina the PvP-gear has at 70.

Ya at 70 my hunter was down to 19% crit and that was with a few 25-28 crit rating items. That level up balance thing really hurts, along with the reduction on agi on items.

[Kitsune]

Yeah, I think a LOT of people have simply not grasped or brushed-off the appearance of an anti-crit stat.  I keep seeing people saying things like, "Oh, I've got 30% crit now, I'm sure I'll have 50% at 70..."  Um, no.  Because everyone and their brother is going to be piling on anti-crit gear as fast as they can get it, where they couldn't before.  Not being critically hit is a very, very good thing, especially now that they've removed the 'Activates when you get critted' wording on talents that used to have it.  At best, I predict a level 70 will maintain the crit percentage they had at 60 if they pile on lots of equipment and talents to boost it against the resistances that others will be getting.  For most, I expect that level 70s will be critting less often than we're seeing the 60s doing today.

[Fabricated]

Yeah, I think a LOT of people have simply not grasped or brushed-off the appearance of an anti-crit stat.  I keep seeing people saying things like, "Oh, I've got 30% crit now, I'm sure I'll have 50% at 70..."  Um, no.  Because everyone and their brother is going to be piling on anti-crit gear as fast as they can get it, where they couldn't before.  Not being critically hit is a very, very good thing, especially now that they've removed the 'Activates when you get critted' wording on talents that used to have it.  At best, I predict a level 70 will maintain the crit percentage they had at 60 if they pile on lots of equipment and talents to boost it against the resistances that others will be getting.  For most, I expect that level 70s will be critting less often than we're seeing the 60s doing today.

Yep, and I'm sure it's Blizzard's intention so PVP isn't nearly as much of an insta-kill fest for people in hot-shit gear.

This is me as a mage with a few epics and all level 57-60 blues (nearly all with some +damage and hit/crit) in AV/AB.

"bolt...bolt...bolt...okay, that's one rogue down, and wait there's a hun~"

Then I proceed to take about 3000 damage in 2-3 seconds from that hunter and die before I can blink to his deadzone or out of range/LOS. That hunter suddenly has a lot more trouble if I have over twice as much HP and 5-15% less chance to take a crit. Before that though, I'm an afterthought, free honor.

[Typhon]

no! your grass is greener!

Not a "grass is greener comment". More a shamans and their totems shit me post. Especially when I'm nuking them and my target auto-switches to their stupid little sticks that I can't AE. Pallies I'll just nuke into oblivion when they're low or otherwise follow Ironwood's advice.

My post wasn't directed at you specifically.  I was just chuckling about each sides propensity to think that the other side is playing on easy mode.  Both the shaman and the paladin are solid classes with benefits and drawbacks.  Both the paladin and shaman can be applied to specific scenarios that improve or greater improve chances of success in a specific scenario.  PvP isn't a "scenario".

I look forward to more bitching about racial abilities in the future... and map imbalance in the BGs.  Clearly these topics haven't been picked apart in nearly enough detail.  (again, I'm not picking on you here, I'm just sayin)

[Azazel]

Nod. Now let's talk about how much we hate Warlocks and Shadow Priests.

And hunters as well, I guess.

[Dren]

My vote is feral druid.  Friend that has nice epics and when buffed has over 1100 armor.  The damage of the cat is enough to nearly have a lvl 52 druid slice my 60 rogue up.  I looked at her items and they were all green.  I won, but she was bringing my life down very very quickly.  Nasty.

She resisted my stuns too  :-(

[jpark]

My vote is feral druid.  Friend that has nice epics and when buffed has over 1100 armor.  The damage of the cat is enough to nearly have a lvl 52 druid slice my 60 rogue up.  I looked at her items and they were all green.  I won, but she was bringing my life down very very quickly.  Nasty.

She resisted my stuns too  :-(

The ongoing debate / concern / discussion I have with my bud in any of these games are the hybrid classes.  We go through cycles in ALL of these games where hybrids overshadow pure classes (rogues, mages, warrior, clerics) for awhile until corrected...I was going to list examples in Coh, EQ and WOW - but that's asking for a derail :P

Priests are an interesting case in the nerf game.  Pure healers are rare.  So the battle developers have is to make this class more popular, or strengthen the same function in hybrid classes diminishing the need for a master healer.  My bet is that priests for the most part will not be touched - even if overpowered.  Not enough folks play them - and there is a constant demand for priests.  The current hybrid healers can substitute for priests now - but not for heroic encounters - which will be all the rage and bring us full circle all over again in the demand for master healers (imo).

[Dren]

I really would hate to see feral druid nerfed since I do have one, but it is seriously overpowered over the 5 other alts I play regularly.  My perspective is all PvE mind you.

Druids have something from every class and that "something" is quite good for each. 

Priest: Healers (quite good healers with AE, Direct, and HOT, cure poison and curse)
Warrior: Bearform (medium tanking ability since last patch, heavy armor, quite good dps, but even better they have a healing skill without even leaving form.)
Rogue: Catform (good dps, stealth, stun-from-stealth, bleeding attacks, etc.)
Paladin: Several of the best buffs in the game including getting any mana back from anyone in the party including themselves.
Mage: Several different direct damage spells , also has a AE spell that slows and damages at the same time!
Warlock:  No pet, but have a very nice DD+DOT spell

I love playing my druid.  I have something in my pocket for almost any situation.  I make a huge impact on group play.  However, this is more-so in all areas and in the most dramatic way than any other class I've played.

The class sucks as a newb, but at 40+ and especially at 60, the class is hard to beat from any direction.

*Edit: added Warlock comparison.

[Rasix]

My vote is feral druid.  Friend that has nice epics and when buffed has over 1100 armor.  The damage of the cat is enough to nearly have a lvl 52 druid slice my 60 rogue up.  I looked at her items and they were all green.  I won, but she was bringing my life down very very quickly.  Nasty.

She resisted my stuns too  :-(

I just don't see enough people playing druids for this to happen.   Horde, you're lucky to see one or two per AV.  I remember back when I was still raiding you'd see one or two per raid and none would be feral.  That started to change somewhat with bear tanking becoming somewhat useful in AQ (although rage generation always seemed rather slow to me, maybe I suck  ).

Still, feral is great and yah, you can be effective in very poor gear.  My catform has more AP at 49 than my level 60 enhance shaman and nearly as high of a crit percentage in really poor greens with no enchants.

I don't ever see druids being a FOTW class due to the perception of slow leveling and the sub 20 experience not being all that great (no cat, no bear before 10).  Usually the unpopular classes can float under the radar for quite a while.   Until they start one shotting people consistantly.  I'm still kind of miffed that the 40 point talent isn't a new form with a new dance (only reason I ever considered moonkin), but I'll have enough fun with mangle.

[Righ]

Locks and druids will be nerfed when there are too many people playing them. Hunters, paladins, warriors and rogues will get nerfs. Nothing for mages, warlocks and shaman. Buffs for priests and druids. Its about active populations, not power or whining.

As for Horde paladins and Alliance shamans? Its interesting to see that a level 70 method of countering the paladin bubble was introduced. I guess invinci-bubble would have been OP in Horde hands. Loving resto shaman though... the first rule of earth shield... you get the idea.