Planned sellout of BC?

[Venkman]

Traipsing around GameSpots of late, I learned two interesting things about BC:

    * Expected on-shelf date was November 28th. This means I was right. I love being right.
    * Blizzard is only planning to ship 4 million units of Burning Crusade boxes.

4 millions units seems real low to me though. The only reasons I could come up with:

   1. They really expect only 60% of the current account holders to buy it, based on precedent (though there aren't many games to compare to, and none which hit such a wide spectrum of playstyles).
   2. They are not planning to launch the expansion in EU, China nor other territories until next year.
   3. They are planning to be out of stock in order to gain positive PR from that.

All three are plausible, though I'd bank most heavily on #2.

I firmly believe that they could hit 10 million subscribers with this expansion, as they draw back so many other players to complement those already here. But if #2 is the reason for the lowball distribution, then it may take some time for that 10 million to be reached.

What do you think?

[edlavallee]

Anyone know if they are planning an online download?

[Zane0]

Perhaps they mean to reduce strain on their servers by holding manufacture back?  25-man raids are supposedly better on latency, but the crush of people making their way through the dark portal and the opening zones could create some spectacular lag.

[Sairon]

Out of those 3 options I find 2 the least likely. Even though WoW was released earlier in the US, it was made pretty clear that at least EU would get the same content as the US at pretty much the same time. I do believe this hold true for other territories as well, even though I have no memory of any information regarding that. It was a huge concern with DAoC that all the content would pretty much already have been explored once it hit EU.

[Wolf]

if they delay the release in europe again I'm not buying it
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Yeah, right. I'm weak :(

[Trippy]

Anyone know if they are planning an online download?

Digital download is the preferred distribution method in Korea and I believe China as well. I think you guys are reading too much into that number.

[schild]

I think I'll buy 5 and ebay them for my personal christmas gift.

Bunch of fucking lemmings, MMOG gamers are.

Edit: I still need to dump my copy of Subsistence I picked up. The Ebay auctions for it are becoming more scarce. I should probably sell my LTD edition WoW launch box also.

Edit 2: Doesn't look like there's a burning crusade special edition. Missed opportunity maybe?

[Furiously]

Edit 2: Doesn't look like there's a burning crusade special edition. Missed opportunity maybe?

That one shocked the hell outta me. And I see on Amazon the original special editions go for like $300. People love the panda pet.

I don't really understand why they are not doing a collector's edition.

[Righ]

I don't really understand why they are not doing a collector's edition.

Because they want to sell the regular copy first. Somebody pointed out to them that if you release the collector's edition a month later, you make two sales to the same punter. Once the collector's edition is sold out, you release a stripped down special edition that has yet more unique content for a triple sale to many, and double to a lot of folks who missed the collector's edition. Then, just for a laugh, you release the hundred or so collectors editions you held back through auction sites, fully signed by the team.

Also, the answer is numbers 2, 3 and 4. Number 4 is logistics - that because of inevitable last minute crap (the sort thats hard to patch in, like box art) they need to hold back printing long enough that it actually will become problematic to ship more units in a reasonable timescale without involving other printing companies. However, this plays nicely into the "selling better than anticipated, we had to get more printed" press fondling.

[Simond]

Yeah, a direct download sale in China & Korea makes sense (and makes the box sales number make sense as well, which is nice).

I wonder when the inevitable 'Battle Chest' edition of WoW+TBC will be released? Personally, I'd schedule it for release in the same week that Vanguard goes live (Sometime in March 07?), but that's me being petty and vindictive.

[Phred]

Yeah, a direct download sale in China & Korea makes sense (and makes the box sales number make sense as well, which is nice).

I wonder when the inevitable 'Battle Chest' edition of WoW+TBC will be released? Personally, I'd schedule it for release in the same week that Vanguard goes live (Sometime in March 07?), but that's me being petty and vindictive.

That would be ironic considering the number of patches Brad and his team put in EQ just before other games released that fixed or added things players had asked for for years in EQ.

[El Gallo]

I'm pretty sure I read somewhere that TBC won't be released in Asia until early 2007.

[Righ]

The current FAQ states:

Q: When will the expansion be released? Will it be a simultaneous global launch? How much will it cost?
A: We will follow a careful, phased approach with the expansion. The target release date will be late 2006 in Europe, Korea, and North America (and those regions that play on North American realms), and we will work to ensure that the launches in mainland China and the regions of Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Macau take place as quickly as possible after that. This phased approach will help ensure a smooth and successful launch in all regions. Further details regarding launch timing and pricing will be revealed in the months ahead.

[schild]

Personally, I'd schedule it for release in the same week that Vanguard goes live (Sometime in March 07?), but that's me being petty and vindictive.

Auto Assault in the woods? I really don't think Blizzard considers Vanguard any sort of competition. They're probably more worried about UO graphics upgrade.

[Righ]

Internet porn and YTMND are bigger threats.

[Morfiend]

Since we are on the topic of WoW prices, I wanted to throw out a little info I got recently. It could be wrong, but this is what I have heard.

Wow Subs in the USA are 1 million. Wow subs in China are 6 mill and another 700k-1mil in Europe. In China you do NOT have to buy the box. Its a free download. You only have to pay hourly to play. The hourly price in china is about 1.5 cents. The avarage monthly payment of a Chinese player is $1.
I found this interesting cause people always drop the numbers ($15 a month + $50 innitial box sale x 6 million = money hats) now, im not saying they dont have money hats. We all know they do, but the overall income is much less than I had imagined.

[Miasma]

WoW got another article in the New York Times today.  They were talking to Blizzard's president and it says:

Almost seven million globally.
More than three million in China.
Slightly less than two million in the U.S.
More than a million in Europe.

I guess the rest of the world brings it up to seven million.

[Hellinar]

All three are plausible, though I'd bank most heavily on #2.

/irony on
Could it be an evil plan to prevent their servers crashing on opening day? Have they no respect for MMORPG traditions?
/irony off

I think a couple of million BE paladins and Alliance Shaman running round the newbie zones on opening day will likely do the server in. So we can probably discount:

4) Matching box sales to server capacity

[Simond]

Personally, I'd schedule it for release in the same week that Vanguard goes live (Sometime in March 07?), but that's me being petty and vindictive.

Auto Assault in the woods? I really don't think Blizzard considers Vanguard any sort of competition. They're probably more worried about UO graphics upgrade.

Hence the 'petty an vindictive' part - Vanguard is going to be mediocre at best so you're right in that Blizzard doesn't need to do anything.

[Xanthippe]

I don't really understand why they are not doing a collector's edition.

Because they want to sell the regular copy first. Somebody pointed out to them that if you release the collector's edition a month later, you make two sales to the same punter. Once the collector's edition is sold out, you release a stripped down special edition that has yet more unique content for a triple sale to many, and double to a lot of folks who missed the collector's edition. Then, just for a laugh, you release the hundred or so collectors editions you held back through auction sites, fully signed by the team.

That makes no sense.  You tie your original game to your expansion, so what good does a collector's edition released later do? 

I love my collector's edition but only because of the pets.  If there were no pets, I would not have bought one.

Wish I could get a mini Onyxia.  Or a mini Orc or Tauren. Horde could get pet Gnomes or mini NEs.

[Morfiend]

I love my Murky. Specially when he dances.

[El Gallo]

im not saying they dont have money hats. We all know they do, but the overall income is much less than I had imagined.

Well, the NYT article notes that they are on pace to make over $1b in revenues this year, which I assume is the ballpark of most people's guesses (my guess was in that ballpark, and everyone always agrees with me amirite?).  No idea how much of that is profit, of course.

[Trippy]

im not saying they dont have money hats. We all know they do, but the overall income is much less than I had imagined.

Well, the NYT article notes that they are on pace to make over $1b in revenues this year, which I assume is the ballpark of most people's guesses (my guess was in that ballpark, and everyone always agrees with me amirite?).

It's not a guess.

[Simond]

Well, the NYT article notes that they are on pace to make over $1b in revenues this year, which I assume is the ballpark of most people's guesses (my guess was in that ballpark, and everyone always agrees with me amirite?).  No idea how much of that is profit, of course.

A more salient point would be nobody knows how much of that income is going into Vivendi's coffers, and how much actually makes it back to Blizzard.

[jpark]

However, this plays nicely into the "selling better than anticipated, we had to get more printed" press fondling.

I find this hard to believe.  You delay sales - that is financial hit in and of itself (<insert opportunity cost calculations here>).  What is the incremental gain here in terms of marketing - WoW is popular?  It's well liked?  It's doing better than other MMORPGs?  Sales are robust?

All of those things are currently true.  I would love to see the argument by Blizz management team to their parent compay - that is public (correct?) - that they plan to delay sales to try and push a positive marketing image that is already quite strong.

[Xanthippe]

I'm getting worried, a little.  Right before ToA launched, I was at the apex of my DAOC love affair.  After all, SI was wonderful in my opinion, it was just a terrific expansion, and I thought Mythic had done way more things right than wrong.  So I had huge, high hopes for ToA.  (And we all know how that turned out. At least, for me.  I hated Trials of Atlantis - everything about from the ideas of it to the implementation of it to the bugs of it to... well, I pretty much quit playing.)

I am getting excited about BC.  I am very happy with Blizzard and the changes they've done to the game, and just how much better it is - in my opinion - now than at launch, and how my expectations have pretty much been met or exceeded in most areas.

I'm worried because I don't want my hopes dashed.

[Morfiend]

I'm worried because I don't want my hopes dashed.

www.worldofwarcraft.com

Click the link that says general forums. That can pretty much dash any hope you have in any thing.

[Xanthippe]

I'm worried because I don't want my hopes dashed.

www.worldofwarcraft.com

Click the link that says general forums. That can pretty much dash any hope you have in any thing.

If I read the forums, I'm sure I'd be a lot unhappier with the game than I am.

[jpark]

The caverns of time will be a cool thing to explore - revisiting old battles.

In terms of the future - Blizz has said that while BC will break PVP into grind vs. talent pursuits, one or the other, eventually, beyond BC, they plan to have outcomes from pvp impact world events in pve.

These guys have a vision.  And they can execute.

All they need now - is a calender :P

[SurfD]

yeah, the new PvP point calculation system alone is going to completely change the way the PvP "grind" functions.  Now you will no longer have to slave away for 12 hour days, 7 days a week to get High Warlord type gear on a compedative server, you just bank honour points till you can afford it.  All it means is that the people who PvP super often will get more gear first, but eventually, it is concievable that EVERYONE will be running around with a High Warlord type weapon, or so it seems.  Not sure how that will effect things.

[Jayce]

  Not sure how that will effect things.

Probably in much the same way that everyone running around in T1-3 is now.

I provisionally like the idea.  It gives two equal(ish) ways to get nice purples - kill lots of big mobs or lots of players.

[Hellinar]

I provisionally like the idea.  It gives two equal(ish) ways to get nice purples - kill lots of big mobs or lots of players.

One of the nice things about WoW battleground PvP is that you don’t need to kill lots of players to get a good PvP ranking. You just need to have a hand in killing lots of players. This basically rewards devotion to PvP as much as individual skill. And as Damion Schubert was arguing at AGC, rewarding devotion seems to be a key to a successful MMORPG. 

As someone who’s PvP skills suck, I found I still racked up lots of honor points in the WoW battlegrounds this weekend. I would claim that some of it was due to strategic and tactical skill rather than one-on-one PvP skill. But maybe its just MMORPG game design that ensures I got some reward for the time spent.

[Ironwood]

Skill in WoW PvP doesn't matter a good goddamn.  All you have to have is time to beat the other drooling retarded chimps who are trying to put more time in than you.

[Threash]

Skill in WoW PvP doesn't matter a good goddamn.  All you have to have is time to beat the other drooling retarded chimps who are trying to put more time in than you.

I think you are confusing pvp with rank.  Not everyone pvps for rank.

[Ironwood]

One of the nice things about WoW battleground PvP is that you don’t need to kill lots of players to get a good PvP ranking. You just need to have a hand in killing lots of players. This basically rewards devotion to PvP as much as individual skill. And as Damion Schubert was arguing at AGC, rewarding devotion seems to be a key to a successful MMORPG. 

You're right.  That wasn't the point I was addressing at all.